The Battle for America 2010: Campaigns State-by-State, Six Weeks To Go
CALIFORNIA
Key Race: Governor, U.S. Senate
Tim Daniel reporting:
In comparison to several races across the nation, the week past saw the Golden State enjoying a near golden silence. Don’t blink though — you might have missed that Meg Whitman became the $119 Million Dollar Woman and smashed previous self-financed political race records. Whitman’s foe accepted the endorsement of, then apologized to, Bill Clinton, while slamming “Pinocchio.”
Closer to the southern border, California’s 36th Congressional District candidate Mattie Fein claimed that the Good Ol’ Boys in the GOP are repeating the Christine O’Donnell phenomenon. On this point, if her recent op-ed doesn’t make your blood boil, nothing will. Don’t forget to watch the PJTV clip that shows part of Mattie Fein’s television spot , second only to John Dennis’ “Wicked Witch…” Pelosi ad up in San Francisco.
Yet another ad comes out of Fiorina-land. “Failure” seems to turn Boxer’s main meme of attack on its head — the Fiorina camp goes after Boxer for becoming wealthy due to corrupt political insider connections and attempts to connect the dots to the stratospheric level of unemployment in many California counties.
In Proposition 19 news: Bees in Sacramento say no and Golden Gaters say yes; it’s also round two in booze v. cannabis. Have you placed your bets?
Speaking of inebriating agents of change, Southern California tea party activists have created a new scoring system for the candidates this November in the Golden State. Called the Mad Men Passion Index, candidates are “scored” on inebriation and excitement levels — a sliding scale of five cocktails and cigarettes. A flat dud or a runaway success gets a Proposition 19-inspired marijuana joint rating or a brandy-and-cigar award, respectively. Where would you put the candidates?
CONNECTICUT
Key Race: U.S. Senate
“Toss-up” is how the Cook Political Report assesses the Connecticut U.S. Senate race between state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) and former WWE head Linda McMahon (R). That’s based partly on a Quinnipiac poll which found Blumenthal only six points ahead of McMahon. But polls differ. The Hamilton Campaigns Democratic poll has Blumenthal ahead by 15 points. Also, as his television commercials hammer, he’s a man of the people and well-liked. Therefore, this race will continue to be exciting.
McMahon’s strengthened position, though, is palpable. For instance, last week she had the confidence to keep a distance between her campaign and the Tea Party as well as Sarah Palin. When CT’s Channel 8 News brought up those subjects, McMahon restricted the remarks to what they all had in common: focus on fiscal discipline and smaller government. End of that story. She was equally restrained about President Barack Obama’s policies, characterizing them as “different” from hers.
Simultaneously, Blumenthal was put on the defense by the president’s fundraisers last week in the state. Given that the president’s Connecticut approval rating ranges from 45 to 52 percent, his presence was seen as a risk Blumenthal shouldn’t be taking.
On the other hand, the AG needs the money to neutralize the power of McMahon’s war chest from the WWE. She can afford plenty of television commercials, which are becoming more frequent and directly attack Blumenthal. One contends his policies have raised energy costs about $1000 a year for residents.
Anything with a dollar sign attached resonates. Those 99 weeks of unemployment benefits are running out for 21,000 still jobless. Since 2008, the state has lost 103,000 jobs and the recovery is just starting now – and slowly. Given the grim economic times, it’s not surprising that the negative publicity surrounding the WWE, including the recent death of two former wrestlers, hasn’t hurt her.
Jane Genova is a political blogger and communications consultant, New Haven, CT
FLORIDA
Key Races: Governor, U.S. Senate
The latest Rasmussen poll from September 16 shows Marco Rubio (R) leading in the Florida U.S. Senate race with 41%, outgoing Governor Charlie Crist with 30%, and Democrat candidate Kendrick Meek trailing with 23%. Meanwhile, a Fox News poll shows an even larger margin between Rubio and Crist, at 43% and 27%, respectively.
What’s $10 million between friends? A lawsuit, that’s what. Crist’s problems in the polls may stem from his controversial decision to defect from the Republican Party in favor of independent status, a move that haunts him further since a Florida judge’s ruling on September 15 denied the Crist campaign’s request to dismiss a lawsuit alleging that the governor-turned-senatorial candidate refuses to refund up to $10 million dollars in GOP donations since his change of party status. The case will be heard at a yet undecided date to determine whether Crist should return the funds.
In the governor’s race, Rick Scott (R) has a statistically insignificant lead over state CFO Alex Sink (D), 47% to 45%, respectively.
The strategic tit-for-tat grows as Sink continues the tactic of running negative television campaign ads, reminding voters of Scott’s negative ads that accuse Sink of being an extension of Obama politics.
Florida’s Chamber of Commerce endorsed Rick Scott as their favored candidate, while the latest look at Alex Sink’s campaign page shows a preponderance of anti-Scott headlines, comprising the first three out of four stories on their front page. Time will tell if the negative campaign strategy creates a gap in the currently tight race.
ILLINOIS
Key Race: U.S. Senate
Last week Illinoisans found Alexi Giannoulias twice endorsing Libertarian Mark Labno as the only pro-life, pro-gun alternative to the moderate Mark Kirk.
Then on Monday Giannoulias foretold, with a Christine O’Donnell-like sorcerer’s prediction (or was it a Chicago bookmaker’s?), that Rove’s dirty dollars were about to … flood the Chicago media market with more than $300,000 in negative, false television ads.
Kirk said Giannoulias’s Rovian forecast was a revelation to him, and seemed to be consulting the oracles himself for advice on that DREAM Act : while Giannoulias says he supports the DREAM Act, Congressman Kirk is undecided.
Last week also saw Kirk’s first Spanish language ad wherein he spoke Spanish while magically never uttering the words mafia banquero.
Illinois Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones added to our theater-in-the-prairie, complaining that NBC was blacking him out from the first Giannoulias-Kirk debate despite Jones’ polls:
As the only African-American running this historically African-American U.S. Senate seat, I have been polling as high as 14% with 30% in Illinois’ sizable African-American community. These are unprecedented levels for a Green Party candidate in a federal campaign.
And yet, your network is deliberately excluding me from this debate while it has been eager to cover the Tea Party and their “all-American” candidates.
As for the all-Americans, over the weekend five thousand plus conservatives, Republicans, Libertarians, and Tea Party activists united in mission at Right Nation 2010.
Historian Gordon Wood’s Americans of the middling sorts (with one dressed the part despite Glenn Beck’s plea to stop the costumes because mainstream media always lasers in on him) cheered Beck and a host of other speakers. Americans for Prosperity’s Phil Kerpen played Kirk’s lame-duck killer strategy to the crowd. Channeling Illinois Review’s Chris Robling’s excellent analysis of the evening:
Phil Kerpen of Americans for Prosperity praised Mark Kirk. Phil noted that due to unelected senators, Mark is one of three Goppers poised to take office in time to thwart lame Democrat quacking after the election.
Mark’s name brought a fair number of claps and only a few boo’s, which I took as a victory for the capital-M Moderate. If Mark holds the conservatives, he will partake in what appears now to be an extraordinary tally and the Senate will be a better place.
My card reader’s advising Kirk holds these limited-government, middling-sorts of Americans, and gains more. There’s no GOP establishment left to fight in the Illinois GOP anyways. Kirk wins by five points or better is my bet. Now off to that bookmaker.
Some nice round-up, but some of them are heavy on professional jargon and intricate knowledge of the races. Those lead me to ask, “What? Huh?”
Aside from supporting the conservative candidates in my home state, New Jersey, I’m also a big supporter and fan of Colonel Allen West in Florida. He’s a good man, a great patriot, and the real deal when it comes to conservative values. Even though he’s all the way down in Florida, this northerner thinks we need a lot more like him. Is there the possibility of a Christie/West ticket for President? One can only hope.
I was disappointed that you did not cover the exciting Massachusetts contest: Sean Bielat vs. Barney Frank. It’s time to retire Barney, and Sean Bielat is the impressive candidate that can do just that.
I don’t understand how any voter that cares about America could keep electing Barney.
Where/what is the reasoning?
Drudge has Paladino behind by only six points. Six points! If a non-name has a shot at taking down a name like Cuomo in New York that can only mean the national tide is huge…or even hugh.
I’d love to see Ed Martin take Russ Carnahan down, but in addition to Roy Blunt’s likely Senate victory, the other “key race” is in MO-4.
Ike Skelton’s facing his first serious challenge in years from Vicky Hartzler. MO-4′s a mostly rural, deeply conservative district that should’ve gone Republican years ago. If Vicky Hartzler beats Skelton, the seat will stay “Red” for years to come. Skelton’s one of the most high-ranking Democrats in the House to be in a competitve district, and he’s been in Congress for eons. It’s time to go !
I like Dr. Miller-Meeks’ chances in IOWA CD2
she’s set the pace all summer and can defeat Loebsack.
it was just changed from strong D to leaning – she clearly has the attention of Loebsack, the AFL-CIO just dumped a bunch of mailings into the district.
Here in Colorado, the Tea Party candidate for the U.S. Senate, Ken Buck, has started flip-flopping big time. During the Republican primary, Buck endorsed a controversial “personhood” constitutional amendment that if passed by the voters, would outlaw some forms of birth control (Colorado voters defeated a similar initiative in 2008 by a 73% to 27% margin). Now he says he will vote against the measure. Sounds like John Kerry in 2004 (“I was for it before I was against it”).
Buck also opposed abortion even in cases of rape or incest; and only in the “rare instance” a mother’s life was in jeopardy. Now he says that abortion matters won’t rank high on his list of priorities if he is elected to the Senate.
Buck also pushed privatization of Social Security during the primary & elimination of the Dept. of Education. Now he says jobs are his main priority.
I won’t vote Democrat, as a lifelong conservative Republican. But I think Mr. Buck is a two-faced politician pandering to whomever has his ear at the moment. He needs to be retired back to his old job. And it’s funny that Tea Partiers have fallen all over themselves to endorse his candidacy.
#7, changing priority isn’t the same as flip flopping. The first example (backing a bill in the primaries then saying he’ll oppose it in the general) admittedly qualifies, assuming this is correct(I haven’t been following the race closely) but your other two examples could simply be a change of emphasis (ie: “I’m still pro life but my main focus will be on the deficit, job creation, etc.).
Toomey’s lead over Sestak has held steady for the past few months are there are few undecideds left. Corbett (R) is trouncing Onorato (D) for governor. That will help Toomey and also the 8-9 PA GOP U.S. House candidates who have a shot at grabbing a seat from a Democrat. Looks like PA will do its part in the Tea Party wave of 2010.
KeyHouseRaces.com – Supporting Conservative U.S. House Candidates in 2010
The GOP’s Pledge to America is a MISPRINT.
It should read ‘Death to America’
Sounds familiar?
“…should be death to america.” Now isn’t that clever?
Where is the great state of Georgia.
My representative the scum is up for reelection. It won’t do any good
for us conservatives, because the district I live in has a thorough bred liberal base. The scum has no mind of his own, he only votes as an “O” yes man. The GOP rep running against him appears to be a solid conservative, the only way he can win is with a miracle from God. Go Mike Crane Go!
I like the Democrat’s 2010 campaign logo, with the huge “D” prominently boasting their report card score. When Drake College used a new logo of “D+” recently on all their college recruiting advertising, they became laughingstocks.