Testimony on Assault Weapons Guts Obama’s 90 Percent Lie
The myth that legal guns sales in the United States are responsible for Mexican drug cartel violence took another serious blow last week when an ATF official testified in Congress that only eight percent of weapons recovered in Mexico came through licensed U.S. gun dealers.
This figure is far lower than the 90 percent claim made previously as an appeal to reinstate ineffective gun laws that expired in 2004. The claim — still active among the less informed or serially dishonest — officially became myth during congressional testimony last week when Bill McMahon, deputy assistant director of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, revealed the eight percent figure, how it was calculated, and where the 90 percent myth arose from.
Of the 100,000 weapons recovered by Mexican authorities, only 18,000 were determined to have been manufactured, sold, or imported from the United States, and of those 18,000, just 7,900 came from sales by licensed gun dealers.
Both Mexican President Felipe Calderón and American President Barack Obama have tried to claim that 90 percent of the firearms used by Mexican drug cartels originate in the United States. These claims have been echoed by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Attorney General Eric Holder and his assistants, liberal members of both houses of Congress, and a reliably anti-gun media. They hoped to use the shocking statistic to lay the groundwork for a reinstatement of the 1994 “assault weapons” ban that expired in 2004.
The “assault weapons” ban outlawed 19 firearms by name, but otherwise merely banned certain cosmetic features. The practical effect of the ban was no ban at all; the exact same firearms — minus the banned cosmetic features — were back on dealer shelves the very next day with no decrease in lethality, accuracy, capacity, or rate of fire.
Like most gun laws, the “assault weapon” ban had negligible impact on crime. The only measurable practical effect was that one provision of the ban — a 10-round limit on the magazine capacity of newly manufactured magazines — encouraged the development of the smallest guns possible that could carry ten rounds of ammunition. The resulting subcompact class of centerfire semi-automatic handguns is a direct if accidental result of the ban that the bill co-author, then Senator Joe Biden, certainly didn’t intend.
But anti-gun politicians rarely miss a chance to call for more control even if the laws are proven failures, and the administration found the 90 percent claim to be a useful cudgel. It was also a complete, utter, and demonstrable lie.
William La Jeunesse and Maxim Lott of Fox News were among the first to puncture the myth. They revealed that the 90 percent figure came from the number of guns that the Mexican authorities turned over to the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms. Ninety percent of the firearms turned over to the ATF were determined to be from the United States.
But only a fraction of the guns recovered by the Mexican authorities were turned over to the ATF, because most of the weapons recovered had markings that clearly identified their origins in other countries. Of nearly 100,000 weapons recovered from the cartels, only 20 percent had been turned over to the U.S. for identification, and a total of 18,000 were determined to have been manufactured, sold, or imported from the United States.
Instead of 90 percent, the actual number of weapons recovered in Mexico that came from the U.S. was just 18 percent.
As a result of this inconvenient truth, the myth being pushed by the Obama administration and championed by anti-gun elements of the media quietly went away.
Eight percent is a far cry from the 90 percent that the administration had been wanting to claim, and considering that there are more than 6,600 licensed dealers in the border region, it means (statistically speaking) just over one gun per licensed dealer has found it’s way across the border.
McMahon’s testimony does not state how these guns from licensed dealers made their way across the border, but there are only really two options.
There have been arrests of a handful of licensed dealers for knowingly selling dozens of firearms to cartel frontmen. While there are certainly others dealing to cartel members, that cannot account for the majority of weapons sold. The relatively low number of dealer arrests and alleged activity seem to indicate that illegal strawman purchases account for most of the acquisitions. People with no criminal record who can pass the FBI’s instant background check system (NICS) are recruited to buy firearms from dealers, and then turn the firearms over to individuals procuring weapons for the cartels. Even then, guns purchased via licensed dealers only account for 44 percent of the total.
The majority of American weapons that find their way into the hands of Mexican drug cartels come from stolen weapons, or firearms that were obtained in person-to-person sales without a licensed gun dealer being involved. These person-to-person sales are often erroneously cited as evidence of a “gun show loophole” in the media, because person-to-person sales frequently take place at these venues (licensed dealers must perform NICS background checks, whether they are at a gun show or they are at their storefront location). The fact of the matter, however, is that these sales can legally take place nearly anywhere guns are not specifically banned.
Don’t expect the Obama administration, the gun control groups he used to finance as a director of the anti-gun Joyce Foundation, or the media to make too much of Deputy Assistant Director McMahon’s debunking of their talking point.
Like so much of the left-wing agenda, gun control isn’t about honesty.
Just control.






The fact of the matter is that the race for gun control has nothing to do with criminals, it has everything to do with disarming a population. The straight path to controlling a people is by taking away their weapons.
People who are legally armed will not abide those who come into their homes and attempt to coerce them into things they do not want to do.
So, if a so called gov’t rep comes into a home and demands you vacate it-for any reason they deem fit-the person with the weapon will have the edge.
Giving up the Constitutional ! right to bear arms is akin to a death sentence, one way or another.
Simple as that.
#1
Adina Kutncki, Israel
Spot on, Adina…!!! One needs only to look at 20th century European history to find glaring precedent.
77/88
S.M.
This of course means that, as I previously stated, Mexican President Felipe’ Calderon deliberately lied about this, most likely to please The One enough to keep American aid money rolling in. Of course, much of that aid money never gets spent for its intended purpose due to the endemic corruption of the Mexican political system.
Equally of course, I also suspect that BATFE will soon have a new Director. This one made the mistake of telling the truth, in the process going against the “narrative” of his own agency and the dogmas of The One. Unlike CIA Director Leon Panetta (who understands the concept of “when the facts conflict with the theory, the facts must be disposed of”), this gentleman apparently didn’t get the memo from his bosses (The One and AG Eric Holder). My estimate is his future prospects in this Administration fall somewhere between “minimal” and “teaching law at a one-horse college in Flyover Country”.
On a related note, John Murtha has inserted an amendment into the latest spending bill to give the Mexican police $160M to buy new military-grade communications systems. It will be interesting to see if those radios are actually purchased, and actually delivered, and if they are, if the bulk of them actually are used by the police, or if they instead go to the same “end-users” as the majority of the 5.56mm M4 carbines The One gave to the Mexican police earlier this year. Those, if you’ll recall, mostly ended up in the hands of cartel gunmen.
Once more we see that the facts don’t matter as long as the dogmas are followed religiously.
If Mexico wants to solve its crime problem, the reforms need to begin in its government. As long as Mexico is the “land of the mordida”, and this is considered a normal and acceptable way of conducting business, Mexico will continue to be poor, oppressed, and hopeless.
And the United States cannot solve Mexico’s problems for it. And certainly not by oppressing the people… of the United States.
Not that this will stop The One from trying. As soon as he can find a BATFE Director who will do as he’s told and keep his mouth shut, that is.
clear ether
eon
Why would anyone ever listen to any politician when they state any figure (with no real source to check) about any subject. Like 47 million without health insurance or last night I believe that Obama stated that 15,000 people a day lose their health coverage OK lets do simple math then 15,000 times 365 = 5,475,000 and that would be 16,425,000 over the next three years and I for one do not believe it. That then make over 60,000,000 uninsured.
They seems to just pick a number and throw it out and expect people not to bother to even do the basic math to see how ridiculous their statements are. I am highly skeptical of just about any static or figure that any politician asking me to support something that I know in the long run will either cause me harm or cost me more money to remedy the problem. Not only are they loose with figures but also outright facts and true history sometimes making claims of fact that are simply not true.
This is pretty much the usual performance for the Obama and adminstration–and for Obama himself. About 10 percent of waht they say is true.
I don’t know — I’ve heard about the 90-95% figure since 2007, well before Obama came into the picture, and it seems pretty substantiated.
The “lies” didn’t start with Obama. The Left has been lying about American firearms for many years. One of the “Clintonistas” had 11 US children being accidentally shot every day. An outrageous lie. Ten times as many children drown in swimming pools as get killed by bullets. But Hillary “For-the-Children” never suggested a bad on pools.
Grow up!
BC: My understanding is that you are supposed to read the column before commenting on it.
Not only has the myth been debunked but the types of arms and scale of arming points to non-US sources for the weapons. When you combine the full auto capability of such arms, the size of the caches, the types of weapons, and the ready availability of arms on the black market you come up with the US being one of the least likely sources for such weapons. Such arms as the AK-47 in full auto are so cheap that they are ‘loss leaders’ for such dealers who seek to sell higher class arms that allow a greater profit margin for them. Due to manufacturing costs and quality control in the US, such arms are either not made or made in a civilian form that can cost two to three times as much, at minimum, as a similar unrestricted weapon on the black market. The major source of decent arms comes from Mexico itself: from Army deserters and law enforcement turncoats. A major anti-corruption campaign and decent pay for military and law enforcement in Mexico would yield much better returns at stopping the flow of arms than bothering the US… besides, if Mexico was that worried they could just close the border…
You will find some arms that only come from the US, but those do have paper trails to them and should readily yield up who is re-selling them. After that P2P transactions are notoriously hard to trace even if the paperwork is available to do the tracing.
The problems of the cartels and drug gangs and their backers at home and abroad, plus corruption in Mexico’s government leads to many venues to try and interdict arms… unfortunately those depend on world banking, world trade accountability and actually having some reason for government paid employees to stay loyal to the government when the offers from such cartels and gangs easily dwarfs annual pay. And as the Black Market Peso Exchange system has made the ability to stop the money nearly impossible, concentration on the internal components becomes absolutely vital. The weaponry is a symptom of a decaying system, not the cause of it.
“About 10 percent of waht they say is true.”
You are exaggerating by a magnitude of 10 I suspect.
There is absolutely nothing about this admiistration that is truthful or honest. It is the most deceitful, most dishonest, most corrupt, and most power grasping in our history. May the bast@#d and his cronies not just fail but fail miserably.
statistics are usually bent and stretched to fit the narratives. in my household we are 90% sure its BS. the dog isn’t sure.
what i am hearing is that Mexican cartels are middlemen for drugs coming north, so what is to stop weapons coming with them? doesn’t Venezuela have an ak factory?
money talks and lots of money shouts.
“Eight”, “Ninety”, they’re just numbers. Our new President isn’t much good with numbers.
contrary to what the Big O says the US is not the alpha and the omega of the worlds problems.
BC, didn’t you read the article? The 90% thing has only ever been believed by those who want to believe it. The facts have been known for quite a while. However when facts don’t fit the script that polititions have then the facts are just …not ignored, just lied about. For all too many in Washington lies are all they really have.
Miked is right.
This is the most dishonest President in American history.
There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
Of course my favorite statistic is this one:
64.7% of all Statistics are made up.
Mexico is a 3rd World Mess because of the corruption and greed generated by the demand for drugs throughout the world, not just the United States.
I do not believe the 90% krap either way, and it is by no means an excuse to take away our 2nd Amendment Rights.
Mexico has never been anything other than a 3rd world mess, and never will be anything other than a 3rd world mess. Like it or not, the only solution to save that nation as any sort of democratic replublic is to annex it into the United States. Considering the high proportion of its citizenry that is already here, its becoming more like the only option. West Germany pulled it off, we can too.
It is the function of government to lie (sing pretty songs), waste money, be inefficient, and re-elect themselves without getting shot or caught. No one said that politics was easy. It is not good for money to stagnate under your matress, or to have a population ignorant enough to believe everything that they are told. Without scandal or hyperbole, the MSM would not sell “ain’t it awful” and the commercials would not be little commedys. Guns are a hot button topic. Mexico has not been right since the Aztecs, and they were not that user friendly.
To Michael: I did read it, but it’s on a Fox News report, and Fox has no credibility or even any sort history for journalistic investigations. They point out that the 90% figure is only for “traceable” guns, and then head off into the wild frontier of speculation and pulling stuff out of their butts about non-traceable weapons without any hard facts or research. Texas is where the vast bulk of the weapons come in from, and Texans are not reputed to be all that warm and fuzzy about letting the government in on their business, especially when it involves guns.
20.bc.drug dealers are not going to go to the time and expense to pay at least 250% mark -up for neutered,american made weapons,they buy and employ this stuff:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-031409-fg-2mexico_arms_race-g,0,2306703.graphic
here is the article explaining where their weapons come from,hint:ussia-ray:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexico-arms-race15-2009mar15,0,229992.story
or is the la times not reliable enough for you?
FWIW they do buy their pistolas here,we have the widest variety…..and hanguns are serious status symbol down south.
To shau-jan: you might find my counter source somewhat amusing. But I’m not being a wise-ass — the author had worked on the most investigative of the news articles that have covered this and apparently some others thought he and his colleagues did a not bad job.
21.BC
You make fun of Fox News, fine. I don’t like the MSM either way, and do not watch Fox News or visit their websites. However, you posted a link to “mexicotrucker.com”……WOW! Now there is a reliable source if I ever saw one! And I work, and have worked in the trucking industry since 1992, so I know how truck drivers are!
sheeesh!
Again, none of this should ever become an excuse to gnaw away OUR 2ND AMENDMENT RIGHTS. PERIOD. END OF DISCUSSION.
To neverquit: you should have quit — did you not see #21?
Every gun made in the USA or legally imported into the USA has information about the manufacture or importation stamped onto the metal of the gun. Do you think the Mexican authorities would miss that? It’s no stretch to conclude that the majority of weapons that weren’t handed over to the ATF didn’t come from the USA.
That whole article you linked was full of such avoidance of the obvious while simultaneously leaping to far fetched conclusions. It was quite painful to read that cheap hack job. You’re not the author are you?
Adina Kutnicki,Israel accurately stated…
“The fact of the matter is that the race for gun control has nothing to do with criminals, it has everything to do with disarming a population. The straight path to controlling a people is by taking away their weapons.”
Roughly 52% of Americans love to have their ears tickled by smooth talking flim flam artists. How else could Barack Obama get elected, Democrats control Congress and the liberal print and broadcast media have any credibility whatsoever!
These folks base the most important decisions in life for themselves, their families, their communities and their government on the best, last thing they heard from the aformentioned pack of liars, cheats and cons.
Why would Barack Obama spend $600 million+ getting his message out during the campaign? Because slick marketing, slick advertising, slick messaging from a slick, hip marxist works like a charm! The truth? What’s the truth have to do with anything? We’re trying to take over the country here… the truth? Please!
Bringing the truth to their political message is like bringing a knife to a gunfight for liberal socialists!
bc.before my arrival at PJM,i think,but one poster put it quite succintly.cris:
“The people who run the drug cartels import drugs such as heroin which can not be made in Mexico. Why on earth would those shrewd businessmen who already run an import business bother with going to U.S. gun stores to pay retail for semi-auto weapons that they can import by the cargo container full from Africa, South and Central America in full-auto versions?
If these same shrewd business men are already importing RPGs and grenades why on earth are they going to go to the bother of paying retail, plus tax, plus a share to the straw purchaser, then a share to the mules to get it back across our Southern border.
It boggles the mind that you would think that THIS was the cheap and easy solution that Mexican drug cartels that already have import and export capability will go to”
I understand the numbers are BS, as anyone with the ability to even remotely have two brain cells touching can debunk this. Just propaganda from the POTUS again/still.
I am however always interested in reading the posts from the “From my dead cold hands” crowd out there about giving up their guns. Lets see..Great Britain, humm, yep coughed up theirs when required. Canada, ditto on registration and such. How bout Australia? Yep, same ol’ thing. I think you would be surprised at the veracity and tenacity if they decide to actually come after your firearms. It will not be pretty, it will be violent, and will take little time to “convince” everyone else to give them up. I can easily think of 50 ways to pull this off from their perspective. Not hard when you have these clowns in control, and the only thing holding them back is a few crackpots with guns..that ain’t gonna stop them.
But, I can also think of 20 ways to bring down this government, but that of course only leads to anarchy, and then the presentation of a “leader” like Castro and Chavez..If God exists, maybe he can deal with it for us..
23.bc
Saw it. Makes little sense, no author name from “mexicotrucker.com”…….
23.bc
Aha. The original article is from the “Houston Chronicle”, and states:
“Mexican officials, who have been critical of U.S. anti-narcotics efforts in recent months, claim to have traced to the United States as many as 95 percent of the weapons seized from drug gangs.”
Mexican officials have no credibility, they are all on the take from the gangs…..
To neverquit and shau-jan: I don’t really have any dog in this fight. I’m just pointing out that the evidence for supporting the 90% figure comes from researched sources, like that San Antonio Express-News series, as well as being accepted by both the US and Mexican governments for a few years now; whereas the people trying to claim otherwise, like that Fox News report, are basing it all on unsupported and very dubious extrapolations and suppositions. If you were Obama, which figure would you go with?
Guns manufactured in or imported into the USA have that info stamped into the steel. If the Mexican authorities didn’t send a gun to ATF then it almost certainly was never in the USA.
BC, Seems like you do have a dog in this. The article states that a guy from ATF stated in Congressional testimony to the much lower number of guns being from America. To answer your question, obviously Obama would go with the myth that supports his anti gun agenda – duh.
getting the guns out of the hands of the citizens is absolutely necessary for Socialist Obama and his Green Shirts. Obama and his army are trying to foment class/race war between the citizens. They want riots in the streets, violence, threats. The sooner the people get to this point, the sooner Obama can impose Marshall Law and complete the take-over. If anyone doesn’t believe that’s their plan, start watching and listening a bit closer…read between the lines
29.bc.i DO have a dog in this hunt,i like to know the truth from BS,and now armed with the knowledge i have bestowed apon you…… maybe it is time for you to also begin spreading the word among the misinformed.
PS if you want a reason to blame the US for mexico’s problem with drug violence,google “vetas”and “school of the americas”(besides the fact it is our massive consumption that is fueling it)
31.marilyn.calm down.
BC, the SAEN got their figures from government officials, not from any independent resources of their own. Those number come, and can ONLY come, from the BATF.
The figures in the Fox News story, likewise, come from the BATF, as did the 8-percent figure I cited in this article.
But if you happen to think that the San Antonio Express News is something akin to gospel, well, you can here them cite the most recetn BATF testimony as well:
http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/mexico/Most_cartel_guns_not_from_licensed_dealers.html
I can’t convince someone who will not look. The facts are clear however. Over 100,000 guns had been seized in Mexico. Any that the Mexicans could in any way think they could be from the US amounted to less than 20,000. Purchase guns that could be traced to US dealers came to less than 8,000. There is no question about these numbers anymore.
And as for not believing anything FOX news reports I can say the same for any other broadcast news. They have all been found to give false reports and then try to cover it up.
Sorry guys, but there are two piles of evidence on the table: one big tall pile for the 90% number, and a little, cute dinky pile for the low number. Just because you personally much prefer what that little pile says doesn’t allow you to ignore that other, much bigger pile. That ATF “testimony” (aka interpretation) was pretty much torn apart by that first link I gave at #21 as far as I’m concerned, but as I said, I don’t really have a dog in this….
BC said “but there are two piles of evidence on the table: one big tall pile for the 90% number, and a little, cute dinky pile for the low number.”
You seem to be mistaking “an oft repeated lie based on regurgitating erronous facts from a disreputable source” with actual facts.
Ah well, that’s how people like you put pathetic flim-flam artists like B-HO in office.
You said it Adina,right on.
9. johnfrom cincy
Shoot the dog….lol thx
Why has the Hillary and the One stopped pressing this argument? I thought they were on a dad gum roll until the facts started getting in the way. Don’t worry, useful idiots, they will be back with another unassailable statistic to promote their agenda as soon as we all forget about this misfire. Sort of like global warming morphing into climate change, eh? Same agenda, just a new, less assailable, story line. This stuff is straight from the communist book of propaganda. Obama and his handlers are all communists. Even the Democrat party didn’t want to go that far. They were just concerned about wrapping up the loyalty of minority voters, which they did.
Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it.
Sucksretary of State Clinton claimed that 100% of all automatic weapons in Mexico came across the border from the US. Her error rate runs consistently between 85% to 95%.
Not even close. Out of 100000 firearms seized, 20000 were analyzed by ATF. Of those analyzed, 90% came from the United States.
DOJ: “According to ATF’s Tracing Center, 90 percent of the firearms about which ATF receives information are traceable to the United States.“
Sorry to beat a dead horse here but I’m a little confused and could use some help.
A few questions for the author:
- Could you please link Agent McMahon’s testimony in which he provides the figures to clarify the famous 90%? This would be helpful for all of us trying to understand the facts and how this 90% confusion was generated. This would help me understand the differences between the figures you quote – 100,000 seized in Mexico, etc – to what is quoted by FOX and others – 29,000, etc. Perhaps you are looking at seizures over a longer period of time? It’s not clear, and linking to McMahon’s figures (just as you linked to the FOX piece), would at least help me calculate these percentages along with you.
- Can you please explain how you get from an 18% figure quoted at the top of your article to the 8% figure you use by the middle and the end? Is the 10% a difference between traceable guns originating in the US and traceable guns SOLD at gun stores? Or is this merely a typo? If 8% is the percentage of guns traced to gun store transactions, shouldn’t we simply refer to the 18% figure since what Obama and Clinton and members of Congress were referencing were guns traced to the US and not specifically traced to gun shop sales?
- Although the ATF finally clarified their statistics, it is important to note to that the ATF were the ones to originally sew this confusion. To make it clear, linking Mexican violence to US guns has been, and continues to be, a major talking point of the ATF this entire year. Please note Zachriel’s link in #41 (McMahon himself) as well as statements made by ATF Agents on March 17, 2009 (Agents Hoover and Newell, I believe): http://www.usdoj.gov/dea/pubs/cngrtest/ct031709.pdf.
- What is the basis of this statement? “But only a fraction of the guns recovered by the Mexican authorities were turned over to the ATF, because most of the weapons recovered had markings that clearly identified their origins in other countries.”
- Finally, one quick thing with this statement here:
“The majority of American weapons that find their way into the hands of Mexican drug cartels come from stolen weapons, or firearms that were obtained in person-to-person sales without a licensed gun dealer being involved. These person-to-person sales are often erroneously cited as evidence of a “gun show loophole” in the media, because person-to-person sales frequently take place at these venues (licensed dealers must perform NICS background checks, whether they are at a gun show or they are at their storefront location). The fact of the matter, however, is that these sales can legally take place nearly anywhere guns are not specifically banned.”
You state that half of these guns come from either stolen firearms (some citations for this statement would be helpful) or person to person sales. If we were to assume that a sizeable chunk came from person to person sales, what are we to do to discourage sales like these from ending up as illegally smuggled guns in Mexico?
In Summary, if you want to go after anyone here, it would seem like you could make a much more reasonable case of going after the ATF rather than politicians who are given talking points and short briefings by aides and department heads (read: the ATF). I wouldn’t chock this up so quickly to a deliberate attempt by the Obama Administration to misinform the American people (read: LIE) as a mishandling of the facts (by many people, including the ATF). Was there whiff of political rhetoric at play here? Sure. Is it a coincidence that these numbers came out right around the time that Obama and Clinton visited Mexico? Is it a coincidence that these numbers came out during discussions over budgetary allocations and the economic stimulus package? Certainly numbers like the old 90% could help justify larger budgets over at ATF, couldn’t they?
Here’s a link to another attempt to explain the ATF figures from a group that claims to be nonpartisan but probably leans left (it shouldn’t matter, should it?):
http://www.factcheck.org/2009/04/counting-mexicos-guns/
Finally, for those in the comments concerned about “whistleblower” McMahon, don’t you worry about his career. He’ll be just fine.
The aurthor of this is a brainless thinking lunatic!This is the worse Article I’ve Ever Seen in my life.I dearly hope you go back and Re-edit this.
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