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Tea Party Tracking Poll 10/15/2010

Do Tea Partiers think the mid-term election results will cause President Obama to moderate his agenda? This is the only place to find out.

by
Vik Rubenfeld

Bio

October 15, 2010 - 12:57 pm

Rush Limbaugh recently stated his view that Obama would not moderate his agenda if Republicans gain control of the house:

I just don’t see Obama saying to himself, “You know what?  I’ve been wrong.  I’m going to have to move to the middle here if I want to get reelected here in 2012.  I’ve done what I thought people wanted, but they don’t want it.  It’s a mistake.”  He doesn’t think this way.  He doesn’t behave this way.

This week the PJTV/Pulse Opinion Research Tea Party Tracking Poll asked Likely Voters whether they agree that, “If Republicans take back congress in November, President Obama will pursue a more moderate agenda.” Only 37% of Likely Voters Strongly or Somewhat Agree. The number is particularly low (32%) among members of Obama’s own party, the Democrats.

In a second topical question this week, Likely Voters were asked whether they agree that “By the time of the 2012 Presidential election, the Tea Party movement will dominate the Republican party.” More than half of Likely Voters (53%) Strongly or Somewhat Agree. The number is particularly high among Republicans, the respondents who may be considered the most knowledgeable on this question, with 65% of Republicans Strongly or Somewhat Agreeing.

In the key trends tracked each week by the Tea Party Tracking Poll, one statistically significant change was observed. Respondents stating that they are Very or Somewhat Likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who is supported by the Tea Party movement dropped from 52% to 48%.

The full topline report is available here. PJTV subscribers can also see the crosstabs here.

The Tea Party Tracking Poll is a PJTV survey. The telephone survey of 1000 Likely Voters was conducted by Pulse Opinion Research on October 10, 2010. Pulse Opinion Research, LLC is an independent public opinion research firm using automated polling methodology and procedures licensed from Rasmussen Reports, LLC.

Vik Rubenfeld is a 20-year veteran of the polling and market research industry and founder of Rubenfeld Research Associates.
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