Syrian Rebels Take a Page from the North Vietnamese
In late July, the Free Syrian Army (FSA) opposition launched major attacks against the regime in that country’s civil war. This strategy seems to parallel that of the 1968 Tet offensive during the Vietnam war: demoralize the enemy and show that victory is possible, even if the offensive cannot hold onto Syria’s cities.
That means the war is certainly not over but may be entering a new phase. Already we’ve seen signs of this happening. A July 18 bombing killed several leading government security officials. This was joined by attacks on Syria’s two main cities Damascus and Aleppo. Just as the Vietnamese Communists began their offensive around the Tet holiday, the Syrian opposition’s offensive began just before the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan
As in Vietnam (namely Saigon), the Syrian rebels concentrated their offensive in centrally located neighborhoods, even getting reportedly close to Assad’s palatial residence. The goal was to convince foreign observers the opposition can win, and regime supporters that their cause is lost so they should consider fleeing or defecting
Of course, the Assad regime did not give up and showed its ability to fight back effectively. Even before the FSA offensive began, government forces reconquered the city of Douma, with elite Syrian Army units crushing FSA resistance. Next came the regime’s counter-offensive in Damascus, using every possible unit including helicopters and artillery. After a week of heavy fighting, the rebels had to pull out or were crushed.
Much like Aleppo, Syria, the South Vietnamese city of Hue was considered the country’s “second city.” North Vietnamese-Viet Cong forces were able to capture most of it until pushed out by a concentrated counterattack. It has been reported that the FSA committed as many as 5000 fighters inside Aleppo and the Syrian Army is massing troops near the city for its own counteroffensive
While the Assad regime has more willpower than did the U.S. side in Vietnam, it also has far fewer resources. Dependence on heavy weapons has generally confined Assad’s forces to holding major urban areas. Assad’s antiquated tanks and armored personnel carriers also now face an FSA possessing more effective weapons supplied by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and then infiltrated into the country with U.S. and Turkish help
These arms include improvised explosive devices, rocket-propelled grenades, and anti-tank missiles. For its part, Syria’s army has to cover a large area against a rebel force that holds the initiative. The regime’s forces also lack the kinds of explosives disposal teams and defensive equipment needed to counter these arms.
All of this raises the following point: For the first time now, the regime and its soldiers must be realizing that they may hold out for many months, but they are not going to win this conflict. It seems likely, then, that Assad’s forces will be ground down by attrition.
While it’s unknown how many civilians and fighters the FSA lost, one estimate is 2,750, making July the deadliest month during the Syrian uprising, so far. There are also increasing reports of feared or actual ethnic massacres by both sides. Nonetheless, the FSA has won a major strategic victory. The war may go on for a long time but the final result is now far more predictable.
(Also read Syrian Rebels Renew Push in Damascus, Prepare for Regime Offensive in Aleppo)
Have you heard about the shocking similarities between the Kennedy and Lincoln assassinations! Lincoln’s secretary Kennedy warned him not to go to the theater! Kennedy’s secretary Lincoln warned him not to go to Dallas!
The Syrian opposition is exactly like the Viet Cong! Please send monetary recompense for this incisive observation to the home address of Phillip Smyth!!
@Umair: Yes, that’s EXACTLY what I’m doing! I’m so happy you’ve utilized critical reading skills and can see things (“The Syrian opposition is exactly like the Viet Cong!”) I didn’t even write! That’s a gift.
It’s like when analysts compare General Norman Schwarzkopf’s operations against Saddam Hussein to Hitler’s Blitzkrieg operations of 1939-1942. It’s just a completely, out-of-the-blue/pulling similarities out of white noise assessment–like what I’m doing with the FSA!
Better yet, in no way do analysts say those things (i.e. take the Schwarzkopf example) due to the speed and effectiveness of the operations being reviewed. It has nothing to do with forming a legitimate comparison to help people understand armed conflict. No. They simply wish to say the U.S. military is *exactly* like Nazi German forces!
Nay, I think people should send YOU some cash. With an observation like yours, who needs to study armed conflict or assess similarities to understand a war’s outcome(s) or what strategies work and/or why?!
Umair, if I can, I’ll send you a fruit basket! My hat comes off to you, sir.
did you have to go there? to his home address? really?
The rebels have a weapon that the VC did not have and are using it to great effect – you tube.
The Viet Cong had ABC, NBC and CBS with Walter Cronkite proclaiming ‘we can’t win this war. it’s horrible’ or something to that effect.
i thought the united states routed the n vietnamese during the “tet offensive” and it was the anti-war spin that dominated the narrative, no?
You are correct. The NVA and VC failed in the Tet offensive. People forget that Tet had a goal. To capture a city (namely hue) and use it to give the VC standing on the international scene. It failed. Not only did they fail to capture a city to use as a capitial of a new country to oppose the southern government, but they also lost the entire VC infrastructure. Agents the north had spent years if not decades training nt and using were gone. It is important to remember Tet occurred in 1968. The war ended in 1973 with parispeace treaty. The north invaded again (and succeed sadly) in 1975. The south had 5 years to beat the NVA.and they did beat them. It was only after the treaty was signed did the democrat controlled Congress refuse to support the southern government withams needed to defend themselves from northern aggression.
The Democratic Congress did the same thing to the Nationalists fighting the Communist Chinese in the late 1940s. The stopped supplying Chiang Kai Shek and the Communists took over mainland China. That how liberals treat our allies. Take heed, Israel!
Absolutely correct. The history in the article is wrong, which is not surprising given the revisionism applied to the Vietnam War. General Giap and other communist leaders expected the people to rise and join the “revolutionaries” (standard communist cant). The people, of course, wanted no part of anybody’s war. The result was a military disaster which destroyed the VC as a fighting force.
The attack did succeed in dramatically altering the war politically, but that was not the intent. A combination of Johnson/Westmorelan’s poor communications and the strongly biased press coverage ultimately won the day for the communists.
I doubt the Syrian fighters are hoping for a destruction of their forces. Certainly they seek to show their power, discourage their opponents and encourage potential allies. That’s just normal civil war tactics, though, not a replay of Vietnam.
Mine Tartus (AKA Haiphong) to bring the enemy to the negotiating table pronto.
Tet wiped out most of the VC and led to the remainder of the war being fought by regular NVA soldiers. If this were an exact corrolary, we would see the Syrian youth groups getting wiped out and replaced by MB/AQ jihadis from outside Syria. It’s not clear how the rebel offensive turned out, but the Syrian army is less effective than the US army in Vietnam was and the Syrian youth militias have a better opportunity to retreat, melt back into their neighbourhoods and pretend to be civilians. They might still be in good shape, and Syria will have to deal with increasing numbers of increasingly better armed outsiders as well. The Syrian regime needs to arm and activate the public as scouts and delaying militia if it is going to have any chance of winning.
the worst part of this idea is forgetting that the VC/NVA fought for almost 20 years before the other side caved.
Read you piece on Syrian minorities at the Gloria Center April 27, 2012. It was excellent. Required reading for all that wish a better understanding of today’s Syria.
More please.