Syrian Rebels May Soon Take Country’s North
On November 28, Syrian rebels in Idleb Province achieved a telling breakthrough in their war against the Assad regime. For the first time, the rebels succeeded in downing one of the dictator’s Russian-made MiG fighter jets.
This was the latest piece of bad news for Assad in a war which is no longer going his way. The stalemate that set in six months ago when it became clear that the regime no longer had the strength to reconquer areas held by the rebellion is now being broken.
But whereas six months ago the government forces hoped eventually to break the jam, it is now the rebellion which is conquering territory. The insurgents are slowly and inexorably driving the government troops back to the core areas that they must hold in order to survive.
The downing of the MiG fighter tops off a month that has brought only bad news for Bashar Assad. On November 20, rebels captured the headquarters of the 46th regiment 25 kilometers west of Aleppo city. The capture of the base brought an end to a 50-day siege, netting a large haul of weapons for the insurgency. The ordnance captured at the base included heavy artillery cannons, rocket launchers, a number of tanks, mortars, and rifles. The fall of the base is also a blow to the beleaguered government force still holding parts of western Aleppo city.
The 46th regiment headquarters was a major part of the supply line to this force, which is in danger of encirclement. Assad can no longer supply his forces in this city by road, because the rebels control points along the Damascus-Aleppo highway, most importantly the town of Maaret Numan. The fall of Aleppo city in its entirety now looks achievable. This would constitute a strategic blow to the dictator.
In addition, this month the insurgency captured al-Hamdan airbase in Deir Ez-Zor province, close to the border with Iraq. The fall of this base leaves the regime with only one major airfield in northern Syria. Since domination of the air is the main advantage remaining to the regime, this constitutes another significant blow. Control of the Hamdan base also strengthens the rebels’ domination of the city of Abu Kamal, along the border.
In recent days, the FSA claims to have captured the Tishrin Dam along the Euphrates river close to the Iraqi border, and two oil facilities in Deir Ez-Zor governate.
On November 27, a helicopter gunship was downed west of Aleppo city. And then, the MiG fighter.
The rebellion now controls a swath of territory in the country’s north. The regime still has isolated strongholds in Aleppo and Idleb Provinces, but these are slowly being picked off by the rebels. There is a real possibility that in the first months of 2013 all of northern Syria will fall.
“On November 27, a helicopter gunship was downed west of Aleppo city. And then, the MiG fighter.”
Good luck trying to get back these shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles after the “rebels” win. It will be like trying to get back the Stinger anti-aircraft missiles after the Mujahideen beat the Soviets in Afghanistan. Hmmm, come to think of it, what was a major by-product of the rebels in Afghanistan? Oh, that’s right, Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda. We should have nothing to do with what’s going on in Syria. Chances are, whatever replaces Assad will be as bad (if not worse) than Assad himself. And if Libya is any indication how this civil war is going to turn out, we (and the Israelis) are in for a bad time once this thing is over. I guess we don’t learn much from history.
Yes, can’t we just try something different for a change, like getting a brain and a clue, and just stay out of fights between muslims? Even the dumbest dog knows, at least after getting bit, not to keep sticking his head between two fighting snakes, both of which have nothing but ill intent against him anyway.
“but with protection for minorities.” – yeah right!!! Since when has Islam ever “protected” minorities. Yasser al-Kirz sounds exactly like every other MB operative; even those from our very own CAIR or even the ones operating in our highest levels of government. In the meantime … let’s get Benghazi front and center so we can have a good lesson as to how these boys really operate.
Assad won’t fall because Russia won’t allow it. Tartus is access to their only main deep water port in the Mediterranean sea where they ship a significant portion of their oil. Obama is an amatuer punk playing an extremely dangerous game by having those missles from Libya smuggled into Turkey and Syria. Mark my words…..Russia will not stand by in an idle fashion.
The Syrian ‘rebels’ are (for the most part) nothing more than Muslim Brotherhood & Al Qaeda offshoots, Washington’s protestations aside.
And it is not as if the whole damn operation wasn’t planned from the beginning, albeit under the guise of ‘leading from behind’. As if.
Here’s a good part of the poop and scoop – http://adinakutnicki.com/2012/11/29/benghazigates-stink-bombs-steadily-creeping-to-the-fore-regardless-of-the-regimes-spinmeisters-commentary-by-adina-kutnicki/
The rest is a smoke and mirrors show!
I guess I will say it again; Assad is a Stalin, and the group that replaces him when he is gone will be a bunch of Arab Nazis led by an Arab Hitler.
Syria will go the way of Egypt will go the way of Iran; all controlled by religious fanatic fundamentalist muslim wackos.
The Arab “spring” is a myth perpetrated by the main stream media. A much better description would be the Arab “beer hall putsch” or the Arab “bolshevik revolution.”
How did those turn out in the long run?
The immediate loser – aside from the average, impoverished arab denizen – will be Israel because once the Arabs are done getting their new tyrannies off the ground, they will ALL – sunni, shia, persian, – coalesce to exterminate their common enemy.
But sooner or later the ancient animosities will prevail and it will be tribe vs tribe, arab vs persian vs shia vs sunni vs Turk. When this comes to pass let us all hope they all kill each other with their newly developed nukes.
Past time for Assad to break out the nerve gas.
That or he needs a plane out of Damascus, RIGHT NOW.
This is unfortunate news. I have to agree with Spengler, the optimal outcome would have been a prolonged and exhausting Syrian civil war. Like the Iran/Iraq conflict it is ending far too soon. And like the Spanish civil war the outcome bodes ill.
If Assad loses Northern Syria, you are looking at the beginning of a series of brand new middle eastern states and the dismantling WWI era political map. I believe sooner or latter Syria will be divided along ethnic line. When it does the chain reaction will be incalculable.
Now’s a good time to start carpet bombing the cities. Will at least make a dent in the current and future number of “radical” Islamists (read that “typical Islamists) that the rest of the civilized world will have do deal with T’would be nice if they came out in the open, but that’s not their style since they’re always hiding behind the skirts of their women and children.
When Assad is overthrown in 2013, will the loose coalition of anti-Assad forces repeat what happened in Afghanistan after the Soviets departed? Once the Russian army withdrew, the anti-Soviet coalition turned on itself, with the Taliban led forces eventually defeating the anti-Taliban forces during the destructive battle for Kabul. What was left of the opposition formed the Northern Alliance, a group that controlled a shrinking amount of land until the US led operation in 10/01 routed the Taliban, its brutal government and the various al-Qaeda linked groups based in Afghanistan.
Will the al-Qaeda linked anti-Assad forces repeat this process in Syria? As difficult as it is to imagine a worse tyrant than Assad, he had his family’s self-interest in mind to be mostly sane. His replacement won’t care if Obama & HRC refrain from calling him a “reformer” or if Anna Winatour declines to publish an adoring photo essay in Vogue on one or more of his wives.
London real estate prices are going up as another Middle East regime goes down.
Why is everyone painting this in negative terms? Assad is no ally of ours, and no friend to his own people. The rebellion may try for a democratic government or it may not, but either way we don’t lose. If we play our cards right, we can stay on good terms with a new government – I’m not talking alliance, just not the animosity we have with Assad’s regime.
This “al-Qaeda linked” and “Muslim Brotherhood” crap is just propaganda. For one, the Brotherhood is a loose alliance, some parts of which we get along with just fine and some we’re at daggers drawn. I’d be much more worried about Hezbollah, next door in Lebanon, getting involved, but they seem to have their own problems.
The fall of a dictator is good news. It gives us the opportunity to set up a better situation for the people of Syria and ourselves. It could also screw up and fail utterly – but I can’t see that we’d be any worse off than we were before.
The Alawi and Christians made a mistake in aligning with Iran. An Alawi-Christian carve out state’s most natural ally is Israel. That would have been bold but feasible – the State of Israel seems to proves that. But the Alawi foolishly let their Jew hatred interfere with their long term strategic thinking. The only possibility for them now, considering the author’s comment that they are short on foot soldiers, is if Hezbollah or the Iraqi Shiites, send in infantry. I wonder of the author could comment on that possibility.