Syria, Israel, and Water: Prelude to a War?
In the 1960s, the ruling Baath party decided to turn Syria into a grain-exporting state. The regime sought to present itself as being victorious in its agrarian revolution. As such, they forced farmers to shift from herding on semi-arid land to grain production. All along, the regime ignored the hundreds of thousands of wells being dug by the farmers in order to water the grain. Any economist who dared criticize the regime’s policy was thrown into jail.
As a result of Syria’s misguided agricultural policy, it is now importing grains to feed its people. Still, with 500,000 people added to its population each year, Syria must reconsider its priorities and overhaul the agricultural policy according to Rim Abed Rabu, head of the Syrian water safety division at the Environment Ministry.
Agriculture consumes as much as 90 percent of the available water, and 60 percent of the supply comes from ground wells whose levels have sunken sharply, thus raising the cost of agricultural production and alarming landowners. Since water has become an existential issue for Syria, and because Syria is unlikely to attack Turkey and take over its water resources, there is only one source of water the Syrian regime would like to lay its hands on: Israel’s Sea of Galilee.
In both of the U.S. sponsored Syrian-Israeli talks — 1995 in Washington, D.C., and 1999 at the Wye Plantation in Maryland — the Syrians demanded access to the Sea of Galilee. Syrian demands remain unchanged: complete Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights, complete dismantling of Israeli settlements, and return to the 1967 borders, including access to the Sea of Galilee. The sea has been, in its entirety, within the Green Line boundaries of Israel. Considering Syria’s previous attempts to divert waters away from Israel, and in view of Syria’s poor record of water management, it is unlikely than Israel will be willing to give Syria access. That said, Israeli negotiators in the past, as a gesture of good will, offered the Syrians some fishing possibilities in the Sea of Galilee within the context of peace.
Given Syria’s desperate water needs the Assad regime might resort to an adventurous war with Israel in order to capture the Sea of Galilee. And the Turks, while robbing the Syrians and Iraqis of the Euphrates water, are simultaneously seeking to serve as honest brokers between Israel and Syria. It would be in Turkey’s interest to support Syrian claims to the Sea of Galilee, but in Israel’s interest to seek a different mediator.
The Obama administration is eager to push for the resumption of Syrian-Israeli peace talks. Before Obama and the U.S. get involved in a replay of hitherto unsuccessful talks, President Obama should learn the facts pertaining to water resources before putting pressure on Israel.
Water in the Middle East being scarcer than oil could serve as a pretext to a future war. A wise president would make every effort to prevent this from happening.
We don’t have a “wise president” we’re stuck with a deleterious amalgam of contradictory traits in pursuit of haunting ideological concepts.
How sweet it would be if the hatreds of the Arab Middle East could be solved by the need to beg from – since they could not conquer – an Israeli waterwell. Of course, it seems that nothing can slake at least the professional hatreds of Moscow’s and Islam’s political prostitutes. The only true way to settle the scores in what Michael Totten has been lately describing as a very unstable regional situation is regional war. I have been saying it for years and, amateur that I am, I see no way around this but a big thunderbolt from the sky to demonstrate the fragility of whatever it is the non-Israelis of the region seem believe entitles them to an esteem anywhere above squalid paranoid-schizophrenic failures.
One of Tom Clancy’s novels that did not have Jack Ryan as a character, dealt with a refinery being blown up internally. The result was a lack of oil, and the Politburo giving the go ahead to send the Red Army west to face NATO, which would provide cover for them to seize Mid East oil.
The result was that Politburo was replaced with another one.
It has been said that art imitates life, well the opposite looks to be true as well.
Yes, Israel has one. Unfortunately, it sits under Palestinians. Whoops, I wonder if that has anything to do with the occupation.
Moho-
You are such an asshat. The Israelis would give their neighbors the shirts off their backs. The problem is the neighbors have time and time again used the generosity as excuse to stab them in the back. “Occupation”? It’s all a mute point. The Israeli are there, they have no where else to go. If their ‘neighbors’ can’t learn to be good little boys and girls and stop tossing around bombs and missiles, well, that’s there problem, isn’t it? Possession being 9/10th of the law, and all. Live with it.
Sic Semper Tyrannus
“Water in the Middle East being scarcer than oil could serve as a pretext to a future war. A wise president would make every effort to prevent this from happening.”
Anyone know where we can find one? Certainly not in America’s White House. Obama’s stunning ignorance of world and Middle Eastern history, geography and foreign affairs will continue to serve him poorly, as will his not-ready-for-prime-time foreign policy advisors. Time to clear the cobwebs from those cold-war bomb shelters, folks.
I am glad that someone brought this up. Water is indeed key to what is going on. Galilee and the Jordan are already beyond maximum with what is being used by Israel, Jordon, and the W Bank Palestinians. Kineret (Galilee) is receeding rapidly and the Dead Sea already dramatically so. Polution is another serious issue for all sides.
The only solution is what Israel is doing now, ramp up the deslination plants and bring new ones on line. Many Israelis are upset that the government has been late in doing this, after all Israel invented the process and exports the technology around the world.
But these plants consume lots of energy, all of which must be imported at great cost (interestingly except in the region in dispute with Syria – the Golan Heights, which is supplied by Israeli built wind turbines).
I am afraid that, as been pointed out, our political leaders do not really understand the issues. They focus on symbolic issues like the ‘settlements’ which are tinker toys compared to water issues. Any consideration of a settlement with the Palestinians must include a comprehensive agreement on water and environmental issues, as did the agreement with Jordan.
Just some thoughts on how water impacts on everything.
Israel is considering going public with its nuclear program. It should, and immediately begin construction of a nuclear power plant. It will need the energy if it is going to get serious about building more desalination facilities and for other reasons, environmental and political. Most energy there now comes from imported coal with environmental as well as political cost.
The Syrians are too late to the party. Israel, Jordon, and the Palestinians, all depend on the Jordon River. Israel should never give up the Golan.
The water sources, above and below ground do not respect the boundaries drawn on maps and overuse or contamination affects all parties. Not only do the Palestinians lack the resources to manage this problem but a host of other interconnected energy, transportation, and economic issues as well. I do not think that our leaders, nor most of the media-watching world, really appreciate how interconnected any proposed Palestinian state must be with its neighbors – especially Israel – in order to have a chance of success. Just look at the miserable failure of the Gaza experiment.
I think Obama is making a big mistake by rushing to ‘just do something’ in the middle east. It is his signiture style, which reminds me of a narcissistic spoiled child on Ritalin running around in circles yelling “Me! Me! Me!…”
Spindok
Falconsword–> I don’t think I can address anything you said, because its a matter of unfounded belief. However, there is one thing I can help you with. I’m not a spelling maven–I find that there’s a lot of people here, who, when held dead to rights on an upside down bit of logic, revert to scouring the comment for a spelling error to focus on. This isn’t a spelling error, however, but a complete lack of understanding of a concept and or term:
“It’s all a mute point.”
The point is not mute–meaning it has no ability to speak. It is “moot”, meaning that it is irrelevant because of real-world realities. Carry on.
These countries really need to practice family planning. A population that is growing to the point where the land can no provide is just stupid.
To build on what Spindok said -
The real expertise that the Israelis can furnish isn’t so much in desalination (which can be acquired from many sources), but low-water agriculture. In an ideal world, the Syrians would be learning from the Israelis how to farm using less water. Judging from what the Gazans did with the greenhouses that were furnished to them free of charge, that doesn’t seem likely.
There’s a separate but related issue with the Dead Sea, and Israel, Jordan, and the PA are working cooperatively to deal with that. It’s not as simple as it appears, because adding sea water will upset the unique mineral composition of the Dead Sea, so ironically, the water to be added will have to be desalinated.
In the long run, the entire region is going to have to both conserve, and desalinate more. This will probably mean that Israel will have to either expand Dimona, or build a second nuke power plant. The alternative is more coal. No matter what they do, somebody’s going to object. So as always, Israel will ignore the objections, and do what she has to.
Free Quark’s comment reminded me of a joke because it made me think about the Israeli mindset which is often quite different than most:
The worlds top scientists made a terrible discovery. They concluded that in just three days a cataclysmic event would occur and the entire earth would be forever be covered in water, even the highest peaks.
The President of the US, along with leaders of the other great nations convened at the UN building in New York to announce this terrible news to the world.
After explaining what would happen he called upon all the nations to “put aside our differences, so that we may spend our few remaining days with our families in peace”
The Pope and other religious leaders gathered at the Vatican for a televised announcement urging all people of faith to “spend our last hours in reflection and prayer so that we may all enter our eternal reward”
Meanwhile the Prime minister of Israel, together with the Chief Rabbi and his top advisors held their own conference to break the news to the Israeli people.
“Ladies and Gentlemen”, be began, “We have 3 days to learn how to live underwater…”
Spindok
Interesting problem. Times change. I seem to recall reading that sugar cane (a tremendous glutton for water) was a major crop in Syria at the time of the Crusades. Doubt they grow much of it now…
Well DUH! Israel and Syris have been at war since 1948. What is that? 60 years? I’m glad you noticed.
One of the biggest flaws in Liberals/Socialists is their misunderstanding of War. NOT all wars are shooting wars. Wars don’t end when the shooting stops. Wars end by treaty. Just because Israel and Syria only shoot at each other on a monthly basis, doesn’t mean the war is over. It just means both sides see an advantage in not shooting at each other.
On the other side of the planet, America is at war with North Korea. The serious shooting part ended with a cease fire, which is NOT a peace treaty. Legally, either side can resume the shooting with 24 hours notice of intent.
These strange, half war, half truce thangies come about when one party is enormously stronger then the other and the stronger party does not want war.
Israel could put an end to Syria in half a day or so. America could put an end to N. Korea is about 3 days. South Korea could put an end to the Norks in about 4 days.
None of the despots will be taken down because it isn’t fashionable to go after tyrants.
Interesting article.Its a view i thought about when i was much younger about 20 years ago.I was brainstorming with a friend of mine about a next world war.He thought it would be over oil and i said it would be over water.I can live without oil.Cant live without water though.As for Moho ,LOL! Israel is friends with a country that has the largest freshwater supplies in the world.Couple that with Israeli technology of water filtration system and youve got a pretty good arrangement.
On a side note to America-Dont get distracted about the book coming out from the former homeland security chief.Stay on the healthcare issue.The media is just throwing you a curve ball to throw you off.Obama is president not Bush.
a rather cheery visual is everyone in syria having their tongues stuck to the roofs of their mouths. maybe their vile rants over killing jews will somehow turn what’s left of their spittle into a waterfall. hey, miracles happen. let’s see allah take care of this one. schmucks.
It’s not that they overbreed. They overbreed as related to their *technological capacity to feed themselves*. Islam is a regressive religion. Mohammed disdained books and learning, except for medicine. So, outside of medicine, the Islamic primitives are frozen in time.
moho, you mean the “occupation” that came about as a result of a war instigated by the Arabs for the expressly stated purpose of “finishing what Hitler started”? Just checking.