Steve Milloy: Climategate’s Perry Mason Moment (PJM Exclusive)
What’s the real smoking gun among the emails allegedly “hacked” from the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit? We’ll get to that in a moment, but let’s first address the alarmists’ first line of defense — that the emails were stolen, and more than likely by some dastardly skeptic.
Since news of embarrassing, if not incriminating emails broke last Friday, it has become clear that the CRU computer system was not “hacked” and the emails were not stolen. In fact, the file containing the emails had been assembled by CRU staff in preparation for compliance with a Freedom of Information request. The file was then stored in a publicly accessible portion of the CRU computer network — making it just a matter of time before someone discovered it. Why the file was so stored may never be known, but that’s not really what’s important.
Nothing illegal or unethical was done to affect the file’s release.
Moving on.
Much has been written already about the now infamous “trick” to explain away recent global cooling, and the alarmists’ conspiratorial machinations to silence their critics. But the real “mushroom cloud” among the emails comes from Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research and a lead author of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports on global warming.
In an October 14 email to fellow alarmist Tom Wigley, Trenberth plaintively writes:
How come you do not agree with a statement that says we are no where close to knowing where energy is going or whether clouds are changing to make the planet brighter. We are not close to balancing the energy budget. The fact that we can not account for what is happening in the climate system makes any consideration of geoengineering quite hopeless as we will never be able to tell if it is successful or not! It is a travesty!
It’s a Perry Mason moment.
First, by admitting that we “are nowhere close” to understanding atmospheric energy flows, the much-vaunted Trenberth has trashed all the climate models on which the gloom-and-doom IPCC forecasts are based. If energy flows in the climate system cannot be accounted for, then they cannot be modeled — and there can be no basis upon which to make predictions of future temperatures.
That’s case closed, right there. But there’s more.
Two years ago, I privately surveyed U.S. scientists who participated in the IPCC’s review of climate science. Trenberth was one of those who responded to the survey.
One question asked:
Which best describes the role of manmade CO2 emissions in climate change?
Trenberth checked off the following answer:
Manmade CO2 emissions drive climate change, but other natural and human-related factors are also important.
So — while in October 2007 Trenberth seemed pretty convinced that he understood energy flows in the climate system, two years later he underwent such an about-face that he is now trying to get his colleagues to admit, at least privately, that they really don’t know squat.
It’s not surprising that Trenberth had a hard time convincing Wigley, since Wigley’s responses to the survey were extreme in terms of the significance of manmade CO2 emissions. On that same question, Wigley checked off this answer:
Manmade CO2 emissions are the principal driver of climate change.
Were the framing of CO2 as climate-culprit a TV drama, at this point Perry Mason would be cruising off into the sunset with Della Street in his gas-guzzling black 1957 Cadillac El Dorado convertible. But the magnitude of the global warming fraud is immense and widespread — too many politician/celebrity egos, corporate fortunes, and activist political dreams have too much invested in the scam to simply say “nevermind.”
They have no shame, and they will not go away. So our struggle against them will continue.
The difference now is that we are no longer The Skeptics. We are The Vindicated.
It’s a truism of my trade — real-time simulation — that one cannot model what one does not understand. Understanding sufficient to support a model of any value requires unambiguous, non-controversial definitions of key measures and a firm grasp of the causes and effects that characterize the system to be modeled.
Without those things, the whole enterprise is foolish.
Climate “modelers,” the principal assets of the AGW flacksters, started from questionable data about the (relatively) distant past, refrained from examining the key definitions of their undertaking too closely, and proceeded to conjecture about causes and effects without insisting on conformation of theory to experience. Their notable lack of success at back-casting the climatic behavior of the periods about which they claim to have reliable data should have been enough for all of us to write them off. That we didn’t says as much about public credulity as the CRU data leak says about the AGW doom-shouters.
It’s time for a return to healthful, rational skepticism toward the sort of Chicken-Littleism purveyed by AGW promoters, enviro-Nazis generally, and anyone else who demands swift, totalitarian government action to avert a notional catastrophe. Most such folks are working out serious emotional issues of their own; we ought not to enable them with undeserved attention or unearned respect.
Steve,
I’m glad to know about this survey, for it bolsters my hope that we can learn something out of this mess.
In another email, Trenberth—a very intelligent man—said that the observation network is insufficient, and said that the “missing” warming is out there somewhere, but we can’t see it because of this poor network.
But how can he know the warming is there if he can’t see it? The only way he knows it’s “there” is because that’s what the models predict. I think he is smart enough to see this.
And it’s still worse. Those models were built using the existing network’s observations. So if the network is inadequate, then so are the models.
Modelers can’t have it both ways. They have caught themselves in a logical trap. I think many climatologists will be able to see this, eventually.
But some people’s minds wont be changed. For example, I emailed Wigley, asking him if he believed his conduct was ethical in attempting to oust a journal editor with whom he disagreed, and so harm that editor’s career. Never got an answer.
Steve,
It appears that Trenberth was having second thoughts about AGW? Or that he felt geoengineering was pointless from a scientific perspective?
We are Skeptic, they are Septic.
The climate hoax is probably the most daring in a laundry list of frauds foisted on the western public, particularly US citizens.
To be sure, the redistribution of American wealth was the impetus for it, simply because the one world government proponents understand the following-in order to get anything done they MUST bring America to its knees. They understand that only an economic upheaval will change the fate of the world, and place total power in their hands.
Suffice it to say that the heretofore inexplicable anti-American putsches from the Obama gang now become explicable.
The fact that Republicans and Dems have been on board with climate theft for years only attests to one thing-power corrupts, absolute power absolutely corrupts.
It would be interesting to see the author’s basis for stating “it has become clear that the CRU computer system was not “hacked” and the emails were not stolen. In fact, the file containing the emails had been assembled by CRU staff in preparation for compliance with a Freedom of Information request. The file was then stored in a publicly accessible portion of the CRU computer network”
The secondary scandal is the MSM. Their refusal to cover a major scandal that should deeply impact Cap and Trade legislation is quite terrifying. How in the tank are these people?
Thankfully we have the net…but for how much longer? What does the Obama administration and the FCC plan for it? They need to be carefully watched.
It is pandemic and not just in the US. The integrity and professionalism among scientists is a joke. They have turned into Grant Whores. Anyone who knows how government distributes research grants knows the process is more political than research. You can live high on the hog if you are a big enough whore to produce the results the government wants. Because government has corrupted our academic institutions no research today is above reproach. Have you seen the ads for aspirin for women? For 10 years no one could prove that aspirin for women could prevent heart attacks, but now you see the commercials on TV that says it can. Why? Because they kept throwing research money at it until someone willing enough to produce the results they wanted came forth. Don’t you think that they tried to prove it was effective for women at the same time they proved it was effective for men?
Junk science and junk politicians go together. Oh Al Gore where art thou?
Demogogues have not given up on using the GW “crisis”. They don’t give up ever on anything, no matter how seemingly unpopular for the fact that the public’s stupidity has no limits. It’s why Demogogues always succeed.
They have no real scientists, only soft science department output of the last 40 years (biology, geology, psychology etc etc etc) who spent their time on field trips screwing around in pup tents, with class time restricted to PC and M/C subjects.
When do the media and public de-credentialize ALL these pseudos and freaks?
Never. Too late. Fait accompli.
It’s not over until the wells are pumping offshore and in ANWR.
Go Galt now.
The global temperature data fraud is responsible for the recent global cooling trend. Yes, you heard that right, because these AGW climate scientists falsified the data to show a warming trend up to 1998, the unfalsified data since 1998 shows a cooling trend. Remember when 1998 was the warmest year in history? Then an “error” was discovered by an AGW skeptic that made the corrected data show 1934 as the warmest year. No error, that was the first indication of the fraud by the AGW climate scientists. Probably once the real global temperature data is used, if it hasn’t been lost for good, the earth’s recent climate will be shown to have only slight variations that do not indicate any current trend.
Can you imagine, if Al Gore had taken office as President in 2001, the attack on 9/11/2001 by Islamic terrorists would have been used as justification for cap and trade instead of the counter attack into Afghanistan and Iraq that actually occurred? We are living in alternate history.
I am willing to give a lot of people, even politicians, a lot of slack on this. They have been fed outright lies based on false data. Having exercised some diligence, and lacking the appropriate educational background and critical thinking skills, they came to believe.
The important thing to learn from this is the means to attaining total power. It requires an ignorant populace. They have to keep you poorly-educated enough, so that you will allow them to put chains on you.
The current, growing uprising against all this nonsense in our current government is the people waking up to their danger, and getting themselves educated. The conservative books are selling like hotcakes, now.
FoxNews numbers are through the roof. Glenn Beck’s numbers are insane for his timeslot. He is turning into America’s best teacher. If you are well-informed, try watching his show from the perspective of what it must look like to uneducated minds thirsty now for knowledge. It is all stuff they should have learned in school, but didn’t for whatever reason. He ties it all into current events. Suddenly, it all seems relevant to the person who previously never cared.
Watch how he captures and holds their attention. He is just brilliant in his execution of teaching and entertaining. Sometimes, at the end of his show, you will see his face, and he knows he did a really good show and drove the history and philosophy home.
I think he is doing more important work for America than anyone else these days. There are others who are better to listen to, if you are educated, but for the hoi polloi, Beck is King. I watch sometimes just to watch his performance. Being sufficiently educated, often, I won’t stay through it, but when he is on a roll, he is really something to behold. Just remember to imagine the effect on the newly-awakened minds.
Tongue firmly implanted in cheek…Phil Jones responds;
So apart from the removal of a few troublesome editors, blocking some FOI requests, deleting emails, blocking a few contrarians from publication, peer reviewing each others papers, cherry picking trees and modifying code to hide the decline: please tell me – exactly what is wrong with our science?
In other words…apart from that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play???
One must change “vindicated” into “victorious” else it’s a hollow vindication indeed.
One line of code trying to stop the MWP
; we know the file starts at yr 440, but we want nothing till 1400, so we
; can skill lines (1400-440)/10 + 1 header line
; we now want all lines (10 yr per line) from 1400 to 1980, which is
; (1980-1400)/10 + 1 lines
(…)
; we know the file starts at yr 1070, but we want nothing till 1400, so we
; can skill lines (1400-1070)/10 + 1 header line
; we now want all lines (10 yr per line) from 1400 to 1991, which is
; (1990-1400)/10 + 1 lines (since 1991 is on line beginning 1990)
They knew the Medieval Warming Period started in AD-440 and lasted until AD-1400-
1000 years of melted ice and some ocean level increase.
But not the destruction of the world!
During that time the Vikings landed in Greenland when it was GREEN.
Lions, tigers and bears lived in the middle east,
not just over the rainbow.
These lying jerks knew if they could cover the Medieval Warming Period they would find their pot of gold.
Here’s some great evidence to convince others that the whole global warming farce is reducible to a few facts, and not so convoluted that you must be an ivory-tower type to understand it.
This appears to be the origin of the entire mess. Go to:
http://www.frugal-cafe.com/public_html/frugal-blog/frugal-cafe-blogzone/2009/11/25/climategate-rush-limbaugh-on-global-warming-hoax-three-siberian-tree-rings-there-is-no-global-warming/
There, it describes how “scientists at Hadley, the CRU at East Anglia University …” used certain tree-ring data “… to prove the case that they wanted to make up.”
Earlier, I used the word “mess” because all the global-warming hubbub may have begun from not necessarily junk, but simply bad, science. It may have been that the originators did not start out to perpetrate a hoax, but after they found that they misinterpreted the tree rings, they were too embarrassed to admit their error, and then simply continued to cover up their ineptness as they rode the wave that got us to where we are today.
I’m not trying to vindicate them, in any way. In fact, if my guess is correct, then they began their journey as screw-ups, which, for research scientists is as bad, if not worse, than beginning it as conspiratorial hoaxers. In any event, I’m not holding my breath, waiting for them to come clean. But it appears that truth is winning out once more, and we are on the way back to regaining some amount of sanity.
Steve,
The Sword of Truth is indeed more powerful than the Scythe of Deceit.
Many of us non-scientist types have followed your site and postings for years. This is obvious from the comments and postings at many sites. First of all thanks to you and all of your skeptical flat earth-type friends for making science understandable to us, the unwashed masses. I really appreciate the work you do, great sites like Icecap, Dr. Spencer, and many many others. Lay people like myself are listening out here.
Secondly, thanx for not giving up or giving in. And especially thanx for both sides of the story. By challenging junk science you open up the discussion and the freedom that comes with free speech rather than the party line.
And lastly, the fight has just begun all over again. You and your fellow freedom fighters will soon be set upon by the galloping hoards as never before. The AXIS of dishonest, grant grabbing “scientist” true believers, opportunist politicians, green movement fund raisers with lavish lifestyles and their psuedo intellectual followers, hollywood egomaniacs, media activists, people haters, and a whole host of useful idiots will soon be at your door step again. They have too much invested to simply roll over and go away.
Thank you Mr Milloy, keep the fires burning on this MMCC fraud. Happy Thanksgiving too!
I rather like the way Richard Lindzen states it. When asked if he is a climate change skeptic he responds “To the extent possible, I am a Denier, Skeptic implies that the alarmists have a reasonable case, but that you have doubts about certain aspects of it. They don’t have a reasonable case to begin with.”
#14 wrote, “They knew the Medieval Warming Period started in AD-440 and lasted until AD-1400-
1000 years of melted ice and some ocean level increase.
But not the destruction of the world!
During that time the Vikings landed in Greenland when it was GREEN.
Lions, tigers and bears lived in the middle east, not just over the rainbow.”
The ice cap in Greenland as been receding for some time, just as has every glacier that I know of in the Northern Hemisphere, but I have not been able to find out haw far it had receded in the MWP as opposed to now. Is the receding ice cap still revealing newly uncovered Viking artifacts or not?
I also not sure what lions and tigers and bears in the Middle East proves, one way or the other.
I’m not willing to cut any politician some slack. This is not the first fraud and If I know it so should the politicians. This is Mann’s second time around. Remember Gore’s hockey stick. The program that McIntyre found and Mann created would display a hockey stick regardless of the data input. Wei Chyung Wang got caught providing data from Chinese stations that didn’t exist. How many times has Hansen been caught and was forced to take out the false numbers and put in the correct numbers? Ben Santer knowingly took out conclusions that were opposed to the IPCC assessment. Trenberth caused Dr. Chris Landsea to quit the IPCC by giving a press conference announcing that AGW was causing hurricanes. Landsea was the hurricane guru and saw Trenberth was making false claims as he had informed Trenberth of his findings that AGW was not a contributing factor. These people have been lying, cheating and committing outright fraud from the beginning and the politicians have been made aware many times. Senator James Inhoff has been a true adversary of AGW, but I really can’t think of anyone else.
So, you see, politicians have been part of the problem either by omission or out right participation.
Since today is Thanksgiving, I’ll be thankful that the truth was revealed to us and the hoax of “climate change” will soon be tossed on the ash heap of bad ideas.
The mainstream media keeps telling us that they are not biased leftists but the fact that this has not been splashed across the front pages of the New York times and such seems to me to be final proof that they are.
This isn’t just some hoax; it was outright lying and bullying of opponents in order to provoke spending in the trillions of dollars for a problem that probably doesn’t exist. In its way it is the biggest power grab pretext in history. Any responsible news organ should be displaying outrage and deep coverage to bring this information tot he citizenry.
Of course, the NY Times’s excuse for not publishing extracts was that the e-mails were obtained fraudulently. I guess their criterion is that they’ll print fraudulently obtained documents only if they compromise national security.
glacial core samples note the temp rise do they not? due to the iron age no?
from that i understood that we are seeing a 5 figure year count trend?
a trend toward increased temps and fauna and flora death.
human behaviour no one can argue is reckless and relentless in it’s pursuit of raw resource. there is no excuse for this, the first nations peoples of Canada could teach this entire world something about a 15000yr+ tradition of living in harmony with the planet, the first nations peoples of Australia could teach us all on this planet something about “leaving no trace behind”.
our human arrogance in seeking to abscond from responsibility and to fight each other instead of coming together and having dialogue or at worst discussion is strangely un-human.
we are supposed to be an evolved species, why is it that we as corporate entities instead ignore 1000′s upon 1000′s of years of sustainability for the all mighty “growth” and “disposable”.
it is rather indeed very much a mass hysteria, but it’s founded in POOR POOR Policy mainly the main and overtly flawed prime constitutional object, that one very zealous and globally active, some times called the “world police” nation has at it’s core, as the “leaders of the free world” with a tool yielded again recklessly, called fear. so pumped up into our state of fear it has come to be the tool of choice, and painfully realised now within the sciences and academia it has become obviously rampant as well.
this does not change the fact that we are scewing up the only planet we have.
this does not change the fact that the ocean is full of plastic.
this does not change the fact that we cut down far far far too many trees.
this does not change the fact that we monocrop farm and we know it’s bad.
this does not change the fact that we scorch the skies and care little for those who live here 500years from today.
this does not change the fact that we spoil the earth with giant dams like the hoover and the new ones in China or in Alberta Canada with tar sands oil extraction, and we too know this is bad.
the rule is this.
leave no trace behind.
take no more than you need to survive.
we need to stop consuming we need to grow the F#()! up and become what we are fully capable of becoming we need to join together and stop obsessing like infants and children of the state, we need to be our full potential, 1+1 does not equal 2 and 2+2 does not equal four.
when two humans join together for a common good their work compounds as two can do the work more than two separates alone with out each other.
it’s not communism, it is not socialism it is what got us here and how we survived.
we did not survive wandering along, we wondered in packs.
it is our nature.
50 years of hyper media saturated society and you think you have the right to plunder as an individual?
hows that working for you?
In order for Perry Mason to work, we must have control of the courtroom. Without such control, the appropriate witnesses will not be called and Perry will not be allowed the stake driving question. Perhaps the largest but certainly not the only coporation on this bandwagon is GE. GE should be boycotted at all turns, quetions about the saftey of its wind turbines should be raised, objections to wind farms should be loud and precise, in other words we need to start using some of the tactics of the other side, the side of the control freaks. This argument needs to get loud but also stay rational on our part. Being rational is fine but we also must distill the arguments down so folks eyes do not glaze over. We can start by simple but provable statements of the loss of freedom and money we will all suffer.
Unfortunately the low IQ press in this country will not press Obama or his people, that needs to be done. Barack is not an informed man. He is a gifted poltician and he may well be very intelligent but he is generally ignorant. His whole focus a has been on using charm to attain his office so he could remake the US into a pseudo European model. Climate Cahnge theory enhances his power even though it ultimately screws most of the people. He needs to be challenged, he can’t stand the heat. James Hansen needs to be challenged here also. I would add Al Gore but I think he is joke to the majority of the population.
What these documents show or should show is science by consensus or committee, science is not about consensus or committees but rather about what is and what is not replicable. There is no independant way to replicate a model. Models are not experiments, they may serve to round out a theory but they do not prove it. WE should see that now.
Let’s see … is this PJM’s 11th or 12th article on the East Anglia kerfuffle? Too bad the msm is virtually ignoring the story. Too bad the msm still has a sense of responsible journalism.
Milloy is the perfect PJM blogger. Check out his bio and you’ll find both his attacks on reports linking second-hand smoke to cancer and his ties to the tobacco industry.
#23 I defy you as a human being to leave NO trace behind. I consider myself an environmentalist, but when the “leave no trace” movement started suggesting that we bring out of the woods our own toilet paper, I decided that I would distance myself from those folks….and I have. It is true that too many people on this site worship at the throne of free market overconsumption, but after all, they are human, and humans have generally created the biggest messes of all of the critters, at least since they stumbled upon fire.
But whether they are liberal or conservative, they/we don’t like to be told that they are wrong, unless it from their/our local pastor/professor/talk radio host.
Happy Thanksgiving.
I think Adina Kutnicki’s use of the word “putsch” is spot on. Indeed, we should integrate it into the lexicon of this scandal at every opportunity. We need to derail this cabal before violence becomes the only option. Make no mistake, threats and intimidation by climate zealots and their political supporters will escalate into worse as their position begins to unravel. We must demand redress of our grievances through the rule of law NOW. Or worse will follow.
Let’s see.
We have documents that prove that data have been deleted and falsified.
The trolls say it is nothing.
The media are silent.
The bower in chief is going to sign an international treaty to reduce capitalism.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING IN THE NEW SOVIET UNION OF AMERICA !!!
Steve — I’ve followed you on and off for the past several years, and you’ve been spot on as here. Thank you especially for pointing out the smoking gun.
Marc Malone @ #11: Were what you are saying be so. Regretfully, some never learn, especially those for whom AGW, in particular, and Gaia, in general has become the new religion. (See especially erich nolan bertussi davies @ #23, who is probably wrong on every point. PS to Dwight @ #27: The only way to leave no trace behind is not to exist. Obviously, everytime we exhale, we leave CO2 behind; not to do that is not to be; that is the implication of #23.)
Biblio44 @ #26: Steve is probably right; and if you have nothing better to say, then don’t say it.
@#23 and at his/her friends…
This particular issues isn’t about people cleaning up their messes. They should. This isn’t about corporations dumping volatile materials all over the landscape. They shouldn’t. This isn’t about cleaning up that floating garbage dump in the pacific. It should be cleaned up. It isn’t even about adopting new energy products and methods and means. We should.
It isn’t even about your screams for all of us to live a low-carbon-emitting lifestyle…while you use a high-carbon-emitting lifestyle to order the rest of us into sackcloth and ashes. You’re using a high-carbon-emitting product in order to scream at us about this. Hypocrites. (at least Ed Begley, Jr. practices what he preaches…except for those trips to various and sundry media studios.)
This is about fraud and many other criminal acts, and conspiracy to commit those crimes, committed by scientists and politicians around the world. This is about an association of groups and organizations who have managed to make the worst environmental corporate offender appear to be saints and angels in comparison. They’ve managed to make the mafia, MS-13 and the Hell’s Angels look like wannabes.
I suspect Gore regrets inventing the internet now.
#32 Calvin Ball
Hilarious !
Now Internet is TOO HOT for Al Gore !
Al Gore, the inventor of global lying.
Al Gore, the man who couldn’t keep his cool.
“…in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously. Even though the facts which prove this to be so may be brought clearly to their minds, they will still doubt and waver and will continue to think that there may be some other explanation. For the grossly impudent lie always leaves traces behind it, even after it has been nailed down, a fact which is known to all expert liars in this world and to all who conspire together in the art of lying.”
This manual of the subversives techniques is…
MEIN KAMPF by adolf hitler
These are the teachings used by Al Gore and his friends…
# 23 erich nolan:
I’ll be the first one to follow you into the cave if you quit using the computer and the Internet. But first don’t forget to bulldoze the “structure” you live and take your kids with you.
Re #34: The actual manual or bible is Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals, wherein the oppressive economy must be destroyed so that it can be reborn to aid the radical progressive agenda. Everything, and policy of this Administration reeks of used toilet paper on which this “manifesto” is written. Don’t look for the corrupt politicians to address this; all of them, one way or the other are on the payroll of someone or some group that will benefit (GE, Soros, anyone?). If Health Care, Cap and trade and the other leftist bills pass, there will be an American Revolution, Part Deux. Watch out Sweden, you are about to be inundated with a big group of phony elitist radicals. Good luck.
@-23
Really?
A first grader knows that 2+2 equals 4 and 1+1 equals 2..
Did you write the code for AGW?..
Tell us the truth?
Hows that HopeyChangey working for you?
All our justifiable outrage over the warming fraud is wasted if Congress passes a cap and trade,disastrous bill. Obama goes to Copenhagen and pledges the U.S. to a reduction in CO2 “pollution” and returns to persuade Congress to implement. Only if he and Congress fail will our anger have been justified. If not, we’re simply wasting our breath with meaningless old-folks’ chatter.
“26. biblio44:
Milloy is the perfect PJM blogger. Check out his bio and you’ll find both his attacks on reports linking second-hand smoke to cancer and his ties to the tobacco industry.”
Typical Soros troll – ad hominem so they don’t have to actually address any issues.
And “second-hand smoke” is another big leftist fraud.
In addition to GE, others that badly need boycotting are BMW, Coca Cola and Siemens. These multinationals are spending big money promoting the Copenhagen climate fraud. They call it “Hopenhagen”. I quit drinking Pepsi products when they changed their logo to resemble the Messiah’s. I guess I’ll have to stick to beer now. Go Labatt’s!
“the first nations peoples of Canada could teach this entire world something about a 15000yr+ tradition of living in harmony with the planet”
True. They can teach you everything you want to know about abject poverty, low life expectancy and high infant mortality rates.
#37 Fearless Leader:
Waste of time to answer # 23. I’m sorry I did it myself. He’s either a troll or a stellar example of the failure of our education system.
Sad anyway.
After several articles on the subject. We have to ask ourselves…are we pro pollution, or anti-pollution. Its simple. Big mistakes in climate change, if we do something and get some it right or wrong. Bigger mistake … if we do nothing at all.
Logic applied is knowledge in stride.
Happy Thanks giving and…. remember to relax.. air still happens.
The models missed the recent cooling trend. If a model cannot predict “out of sample” data , by definition ,it does not work and is useless. Back to the drawing board! When you couple predictive failure with a fraudulent amoral mindset (settled, but secret science) , you have no choice but to lay all your card on the table and have the decency to answer when spoken to and otherwise sit quietly in the corner and wait for others to tell you what you have. Copenhagen should be a meeting to address this issue openly and disband the “hurry up, we are all going to die” mentality.
The Rules of the Game Evidence base for the Climate Change
Communications Strategy
The game is communicating climate change; rules will help us win it.
The principles of climate change communication.
Why were the principles
created?
The game is communicating
climate change; the rules will
help us win it.
These principles were created as
part of the UK Climate Change
Communications Strategy, an
evidence-based strategy aiming
to change public attitudes
towards climate change in the
UK. This is a ‘short version’
of a far longer document of
evidence that can be found at
http://www.defra.gov.uk.
There is plenty of evidence
relating to attitudes towards and
behaviour on climate change,
general environmental behaviour
change and the whole issue
of sustainable development
communication. As we reviewed
the research for these principles,
one ‘überprinciple’ emerged:
“Changing attitudes
towards climate change is
not like selling a particular
brand of soap – it’s like
convincing someone to
use soap in the first place.”
At first glance, some of the
principles may seem counterintuitive
to those who have
been working on sustainable
development or climate change
communications for many years.
Some confront dearly cherished
beliefs about what works; a few
even seem to attack the values
or principles of sustainable
development itself.
However, these principles are a
first step to using sophisticated
behaviour change modelling and
comprehensive evidence from
around the world to change
attitudes towards climate change.
We need to think radically, and
the Rules of the Game are a sign
that future campaigns will not be
‘business as usual’. This is a truly
exciting moment.
For the full evidence for these rules, and the climate change
communications strategy itself, please visit: http://www.defra.gov.uk
For the new UK sustainable development strategy please visit:
http://www.sustainable-development.gov.uk
1 blowing away
myths
Many of the oft-repeated communications methods and messages
of sustainable development have been dismissed by mainstream
communicators, behaviour change experts and psychologists.
Before we go into what works, our principles make a ‘clean sweep’
of what doesn’t:
1. Challenging habits of climate change communication
Don’t rely on concern about children’s future or human
survival instincts
Recent surveys show that people without children may care more
about climate change than those with children. “Fight or flight” human
survival instincts have a time limit measured in minutes – they are of
little use for a change in climate measured in years.
Don’t create fear without agency
Fear can create apathy if individuals have no ‘agency’ to act upon
the threat. Use fear with great caution.
Don’t attack or criticise home or family
It is unproductive to attack that which people hold dear.
2. Forget the climate change detractors
Those who deny climate change science are irritating, but
unimportant. The argument is not about if we should deal with climate
change, but how we should deal with climate change.
3. There is no ‘rational man’
The evidence discredits the ‘rational man’ theory – we rarely weigh
objectively the value of different decisions and then take the clear
self-interested choice.
4. Information can’t work alone
Providing information is not wrong; relying on information alone to
change attitudes is wrong. Remember also that messages about saving money are important, but not that important.
2 a new way of
thinking
Once we’ve eliminated the myths, there is room for some new
ideas. These principles relate to some of the key ideas emerging
from behaviour change modelling for sustainable development:
5. Climate change must be ‘front of mind’ before
persuasion works
Currently, telling the public to take notice of climate change is
as successful as selling tampons to men. People don’t realise
(or remember) that climate change relates to them.
6. Use both peripheral and central processing
Attracting direct attention to an issue can change attitudes, but
peripheral messages can be just as effective: a tabloid snapshot
of Gwyneth Paltrow at a bus stop can help change attitudes to
public transport.
7. Link climate change mitigation to positive
desires/aspirations
Traditional marketing associates products with the aspirations of
their target audience. Linking climate change mitigation to home
improvement, self-improvement, green spaces or national pride are
all worth investigating.
8. Use transmitters and social learning
People learn through social interaction, and some people are
better teachers and trendsetters than others. Targeting these
people will ensure that messages seem more trustworthy and are
transmitted more effectively.
9. Beware the impacts of cognitive dissonance
Confronting someone with the difference between their attitude and
their actions on climate change will make them more likely to change their attitude than their actions.
3 linking policy and communications
These principles clearly deserve a separate section. All the evidence
is clear – sometimes aggressively so – that ‘communications in the
absence of policy’ will precipitate the failure of any climate change
communications campaign right from the start:
10. Everyone must use a clear and consistent
explanation of climate change
The public knows that climate change is important, but is less clear
on exactly what it is and how it works.
11. Government policy and communications on climate
change must be consistent
Don’t ‘build in’ inconsistency and failure from the start.
4 audience principles
In contrast to the myths, this section suggests some principles that
do work. These principles are likely to lead directly to a set of general
messages, although each poses a significant implementation challenge:
12. Create ‘agency’ for combating climate change
Agency is created when people know what to do, decide for
themselves to do it, have access to the infrastructure in which to act,
and understand that their contribution is important.
13. Make climate change a ‘home’ not ‘away’ issue
Climate change is a global issue, but we will feel its impact at home –
and we can act on it at home.
14. Raise the status of climate change mitigation
behaviours
Research shows that energy efficiency behaviours can make you
seem poor and unattractive. We must work to overcome these
emotional assumptions.
15. Target specific groups
A classic marketing rule, and one not always followed by climate
change communications from government and other sources.
5 style principles
These principles lend some guidance on the evidence of stylistic
themes that have a high chance of success:
16. Create a trusted, credible, recognised voice on
climate change
We need trusted organisations and individuals that the media can
call upon to explain the implications of climate change to the
UK public.
17. Use emotions and visuals
Another classic marketing rule: changing behaviour by
disseminating information doesn’t always work, but emotions
and visuals usually do.
6 effective management
These principles are drawn primarily from the experience of others,
both in their successes and in the problems they faced:
18. The context affects everything
The prioritisation of these principles must be subject to ongoing
assessments of the UK climate change situation.
19. The communications must be sustained over time
All the most successful public awareness campaigns have been
sustained consistently over many years.
20. Partnered delivery of messages will be more
successful
Experience shows that partnered delivery is often a key component
for projects that are large, complex and have many stakeholders
“First they ignore you; then they laugh
at you; then they fight you; then you win.”
Mahatma Gandhi
futerra
Recommendations to the Climate Change Communications ‘Working Group’
sustainability communications
defra: Department of Environment food and rural affairs
Carson Trust: Making business sense of climate change
dti: ?
Environment Agency: ?
Energy Saving Trust: ?
UK Climate Impacts Progamme: ?
Tha Thats ALL Folks!
I read through a few dozen of the emails,and one thing becomes obvious very quickly: climatology is more art than science. There are numerous comments on proper “interpretation” of the data, including several nasty remarks by Obama’s science advisor Holdren that his Harvard physics colleagues were “amateurs” at interpreting climate data.
It’s probably too generous to even dignify this mess as art, considering the lengths the climate “scientists” were willing to go to in order to prevent anyone else from seeing their data. That effort not only disqualifies them as scientists, it marks them as charlatans.
No. 31 Warren Bonsteel
Compelling arguement dude. Worth noting the emotion and flavor of abject refusal to accept anything less than perfect science. Thus, without the perfection, the conspiracy, contempt then the inevitable debunking. However, I must submit that scientific research…aint always that simple, hence, we must understand its “human element”.
However, I respect your thesis. Well written, easy to understand, cogent….hence..accepted. Thanks for the education.
Happy Thanksgiving !!
As overwhelming and irrefutable evidence of the ignorance and bone bending stupidity that allowed the whole issue of AGW and its now apparent fraud to arise I offer you erich nolan bertussie davies @ 23.
26. biblio44:
Milloy is the perfect PJM blogger. Check out his bio and you’ll find both his attacks on reports linking second-hand smoke to cancer and his ties to the tobacco industry.
____________________________________________________
Thats right attack the messenger when the message isn’t what you want to hear. That is the best debate tactic ever!
Steve Milloy is one of my heroes. I recommend “Green Hell” to anyone who will listen. What’s interesting is that I left a comment at American Thinker this morning that very nearly echos Mr. Milloy’s article.
The fraud was not exposed by these leaked documents. It has been long suspected. These documents are an affirmation…a vindication. Mr. Milloy is correct. There is a LOT of money behind this scam and even more riding on this fraud’s successful execution.
We are facing an uphill battle.
I wonder if there’s any level of AGW scientific fraud that Poor Citizen would refuse to accept. Oh, who am I kidding, he’s just another paid shill for Al Gore.
Here is what the politicized peddlers fight: When there is a decrease of light of any wavelength, there is a corresponding decrease of light of any wavelength radiated from the body receiving the light.
It is a tenuous position they maintain, and frankly I suggest they will not change their minds, but those who were dragooned into backing this con game – they will leave those ranks.
# 23:
Forget the AGW scandal; it is too new for you to understand. All you really have to do is read Bjorn Lomborg’s The Skeptical Environmentalist, written I think in 2001. Most everything you say was proven wrong back then!
I was pretty sure AGW was a shame since I knew alittle bit of history, Viking in Greenland, Romans in England. History is a wonderful subject to study but it helps to have a solid background in math and physics too. English is optional. lol.
23. erich nolan bertussi davies:
you are not correct,
but if you really believe all that stuff you said you could stop eating and breathing so other creatures could live.
the hypocrisy of the believers is not uncommon, they never apply the same conditions to themselves.
you may have noticed the shift to melting ice caps and rising sea levels since they were caught fudging the temperatures. Well lets deal with the rising sea levels first since it is simpler ….simply not true. the levels are within millimeters of historical data for a long time.
the receding ice caps is more complicated. Most of the ice caps are not melting but colder then the recent past and in fact growing. Glaciers in some places are receding but for other climatic reasons, other than human kind.
NO ONE IS ADVOCATING POLLUTING THE WORLD so please stop using that as an argument ..it is dishonest.
fear the cold ..the cold kills faster and more then warming.
#47, “Worth noting the emotion and flavor of abject refusal to accept anything less than perfect science.”
When the governments of the world want to tax it’s people into poverty because of what scientist say, I want that science to be “Perfect”.
But this isn’t about “perfect” science, it’s about the fraud that is AGW nd the use of true science to try and gain power over others through fraud and deceit. It’s about destroying others that have the temerity to disagree with the fraud and not “Be on board” with the lies. It’s about trying to obtain stature and credit where none is due. A lie is a lie no matter how many people agree with it. This does a disservice to ALL scientists trying to bring truth to the people of the world. When (not IF) this AGW nonsense is finally stuck in the ground with a stake through it’s hart, “perfect” science is what will suffer.
One other thought, up to now wasn’t it always touted by the AGW crowd that the science IS perfect?
although I am well aware there is no evidence of man made climate change/warming or what ever they call it now. in responce to the issue of pollution and use/mis-use of fossil fuels.
by making it next to imposible to compete in the world market due to high taxes and the blackmail of unions the socialists/leftist in the USA have increased pollution many times over.
they made the enviorment to do business in the USA untenable so the third world is filling the vacuum and without the safeguards and sustainable practices that we would like to see applied.
…As we do not have the traditional MSM to get this out to the public and explain what the hell has gone on
….we do have Rush, and I hope Beck gets on the bandwagon.
The public needs to understand this farce, the money involved and game played by the Gore’s of this world.
Scienists in one lab or co., should never check each others work or vouch for it. Too much chance for this type of thing to happen.
So exacty how much did gore know, and Obama???
23: Davies: I guess you feel progress is the equivalent of world destruction, that people raising their standard of living is killing the planet. You must have been the person diving his car with the bumper sticker that said “save the earth kill yourself. You mean if we use the earths resources now we will prevent other people in the future from using them. Nice logic.Won’t they will be facing the same dilemma? We keep saving our resources for someone else to use. So let us all crawl back into the cave and live a subsistence level existence. The earth was so much better when life expectancy was around 26.
All the data you put forth is subjective gobbly gook. There are more tree in NH today than there were 100 years ago.The ocean floor is not a plastic football field. Hysteria and irrational thinking is not the solution to any problem. Because of the global population expansion we do need more rational thinking as to how we conserve energy and resources. And we could rethink how we live and consider new models for our cities that would entice people to inhabit them. Back in the 50s Scalia was designing these cities of the future. We need to revisit his work. But turning ourselves into wards of the state is not the answer and your approach to would lead to a never ending spiral into global poverty. We do need progress in science and education to solve our problems but not earth worshipers nor hucksters such as Al Gore trying to get rich off of fears he helped to create.
CARBON TRADING beginners 101 cheatneutral.com
Pssst.
Guess who’s – indirectly – pulling the strings at RealClimate, aka, Mann, Jones, et al?
Some foreign guy named Soros.
No, it’s not a conspiracy theory. Do the research. Follow the money. Start with Fenton Communications and The Soros Foundation Network. Start at Source Watch and Discover the Networks and go from there…
One of the commentators on the (McIntyre’s) Climate Audit made a sweet discovery about KEVIN TRENBERTH:
http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=7806
Comment by Dom, # 54.
Dom notices that Trenberth’s “TRAVESTY”-email (12 Oct 2009) was written exactly at the same time his debate with Dr. Gray was published (10 Oct 2009):
http://fortcollinsteaparty.com/index.php/2009/10/10/dr-william-gray-and-dr-kevin-trenberth-debate-global-warming/
So, in the debate with Gray Trenberth “proves” global warming is coming, yet at the same time in his privat e-mail he wonders why it isn’t. AT THE SAME TIME!!!!!!
No, those people have no conscience. Such a jawdropping lie with such a straight face. WOW. I know, nothing is new here, but it still leaves one speechless.
“So our struggle against them will continue”. AMEN TO THAT.
“… we are no where [sic] close to knowing where energy is going or whether clouds are changing to make the planet brighter.”
But we will tax the @#$% out of you nonetheless.
B@$tards. M0therf****s. Evil, slimy, parasitic pervertors of humanity.
You can’t even get the FREAKIN’ ENGLISH LANGUAGE right. Scientists?!? Mmm-hmm.
//tantrum off
http://97.74.65.51/readArticle.aspx?ARTID=13758
a 2004 Front Page Magazine article about David Fenton.
And a connection from Environmental Media Services ala Fenton to RealClimate…Mann’s favorite blog.
Domain ID:D105219760-LROR
Domain Name:REALCLIMATE.ORG
Created On:19-Nov-2004 16:39:03 UTC
Last Updated On:29-May-2009 12:45:52 UTC
Expiration Date:19-Nov-2010 16:39:03 UTC
Sponsoring Registrar:eNom, Inc. (R39-LROR)
Status:OK
Registrant ID:B133AE74B8066012
Registrant Name:Betsy Ensley
Registrant Organization:Environmental Media Services
Registrant Street1:1320 18th St, NW
Registrant Street2:5th Floor
Registrant Street3:
Registrant City:Washington
Registrant State/Province:DC
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To all the “BUT THE POLLUTION IS REEEEEEEEAL!” trolls.
I BETTER LIVE IN A POLLUTED WORLD THAN IN A DICTATORSHIP.
WHY IN THE HELL DO I NEED FRESH AIR IF SOME GOVERNMENT COMMIE-NAZIS CONTROLE MY EVERY BREATH?
IF THE ONLY WAY TO SAVE THE PLANET IS TO TURN IT INTO A GIANT CONCENTRATION CAMP, I WOULD SAY: F… THE PLANET!
But you will never understand that, otherwise you would never vote “the-guys-in-the-government-know-what-is-good-for-me-better-than-I-do” Democrat.
Am I the only one who doesn’t see any changes coming any time soon. ClimateGate is getting the ACORN treatment in the MSM. ClimateGate – What ClimateGate? You “Right Wing Nuts” can’t keep this alive forever. Sigh! We’ll all be wearing hairshirts and reading by candle light – while the experts fly to and party in Bali and Copenhagen. Please tell me I’m wrong. The UN and EU will prevail. The current US admin will prostrate themselves before their more worldly superiors and beg forgiveness. Sigh! All hail P.R. Ehrlich. All hail the Reverand Dr. Malthus. F-Me.
Am I the only one who doesn’t see any changes coming any time soon. ClimateGate is getting the ACORN treatment in the MSM. ClimateGate – What ClimateGate? You “Right Wing Nuts” can’t keep this alive forever. Sigh! We’ll all be wearing hairshirts and reading by candle light – while the experts fly to and party in Bali and Copenhagen. Please tell me I’m wrong. The UN and EU will prevail. The current US admin will prostrate themselves before their more worldly superiors and beg forgiveness. Sigh! All hail P.R. Ehrlich. All hail the Reverand Dr. Malthus.
Carol Browner says none of this is material and the science is settled. So there. And she ought to know, she’s a…lawyer.
Seriously though, haven’t we always known the computer models are crap? They couldn’t even get accurate predictions of past events out of ‘em (garbage in…).
The AGW crowd will ignore this to the best of their ability and try to move on as though nothing’s happened. For most of them, it never was about the environment to begin with. So far, apparently, the only AGW hysteric behaving like a rational, responsible adult is George Monbiot which, I have to say, surprises the hell out of me.
23. erich nolan bertussi davies:
In case you havent noticed-man modifies the environment to fit his needs. That is what he does. In fact, that is what you do. The degree to which man does this is is the degree to which we are different from the other higher life forms.
This is not a sin any more than the abstract reasoning that propels it.
What is a sin, IMAO, is that person a the top of the socio economic world food chain would have the hubris to make statements like you have made. There are no macs, no lattes, no consulting firms and no turtlenecks for kids who live on the streets of Brazil–go live like that for a while, and then preach about the sins of the modern world.
When GLOBAL WARMING became an UNSUPPORTABLE lie they started calling it CLIMATE CHANGE which as a NATURAL phenomenon of course cant be denied then when their AGW SCAM for climate change was DEBUNKED all of a sudden that VITAL element of the cycle of life CO2 became a POLLUTANT. then whrn their CO2 LIE was exposed they are now trying to hide behind POLLUTION. The PC MC left wing Green NAZI moonbats are serial LIARS and deniers just look at the nonsense Poor Citizen and ‘erich nolan bertussi davies’ have posted on here.
Hopefully the UK can get an inquiry going, that way they should be able
to get access to the deleted emails from backup servers also.
I suspect these would be the ones Jones and others thought would be the most damaging.
Has it been definitively confirmed that the CRU mails were not stolen? As of today, East Anglia U still maintains that the emails were “stolen” and the affair was a “criminal breach of our security systems.”
http://www.uea.ac.uk/mac/comm/media/press/2009/nov/homepagenews/CRUupdate
Amen!
This guy should write here more often.
@73. Jack:
“Has it been definitively confirmed that the CRU mails were not stolen? As of today, East Anglia U still maintains that the emails were “stolen” and the affair was a “criminal breach of our security systems.”
Does it actually make any difference since many of the people that had e-mails listed said they were true and not “doctored”?
Besides, how could they be “stolen” if they were put on a PUBLIC web site by the people that were responsible for the data? Could it have been a “mistake” for the data to be released as it was, yes, could it be something that the AGW cultists didn’t want to happen? Undoubtedly. Was it illegal for someone to access a public website and download what was put there? Nope, sorry. It was not “stolen”, there was no “Hacking” involved. But the goose is out of the bag and nobody will be able to put it back.
Hey! Steve Milloy on PJM. I feel like I know you. I’ve followed Junkscience.com since the mid-90′s. (Mozilla Webcrawler? Netscape?)
Sad most of the silliness against which you campaign is persistent:
DDT ban has killed millions and made many more millions suffer unnecessarily from malaria.
Second-hand smoke epidemiology is an excuse to tax all– poor included, plus hurts leisure and pleasure-based businesses like pubs. Ask the Numberwatch guy Mr. Brignell.
Nuclear power is hampered by the irrational linear no-threshold (LNT) model of dose vs. harm re: radiation. Try that with fat-soluble vitamins! Lack of electricity because of this has hurt how many? Perhaps billions.
At least now, you’re VINDICATED re: AGW.
Thank you for enlightening me about this. The pro-AGW scientists’ karma is now running over their dogma.
I was a biology major in college in the early 80′s and did some graduate work before I decided I was too unmotivated to want to spend my days in an academic research capacity in that field.
I practically lived with people who had a pre-conceived notion that man was despoiling the planet and their conclusions were in search of evidence, just as they are with the current fraud. Yes, man may be altering the earth’s environment as organisms throughout the biotic history of this planet, but we’re not going to destroy this planet. That’s utter hyperbole.
Wealthy societies are the only ones that care about the ecology of their planet. The others just want to survive. Greater wealth and the efficiencies of life that they create will encourage humans to be good stewards of their planet, but only if they have a vested interest in it through property ownership and the fact that they’ve already achieved their Maslow needs and are in the self-actualization stage at which one begins to care about ephemeral things such as the environment.
Bibliotroll:
Yes, the secondhand tobacco smoke scam could be viewed as the pilot program for the much, much bigger AGW scam. Same MO.
Erich at Post #23:
You need to stop ravaging the planet and turn off your computer. After, electrical power is generated somewhere to make the thing work.
You’re using some sort of internet hookup, I assume. Whether cable, ATT … whatever … there’s electrical power operating your hookup.
You go to websites that are powered by “servers”. These servers are operated by corporations, and obtain power to make it possible for you to “communicate” with other people.
Your computer’s case is made of oil-based chemicals that we call “plastic”. There are wires in your computer that are covered with plastic. The technology that was used to create your motherboard, RAM chips, video card, etc., were made be “evil” corporations, seeking profits, and the whole process used untold amounts of electrical power.
You need to shut off your computer, Erich. You’re part of the global AGW problem.
You need to get rid of your car(s). You need to shut down power and gas to your home, and put “natural carbons” into the atmosphere by heating it, this winter, with wood. You should grow your own food, and perhaps, hunt and fish a little bit. You should make your clothes out of animal skins.
Until you do these things, you’re still part of the AGW problem, Erich.
As for me, I think I’ll go have a cup of coffee in a foam coffee cup. Just think! A million years from now, there will be something to remind the world that I was here!
Cheers!
Climate Gate: well tisk tisk the bad puddytats have been found out. some may get fired, some may go to jail, some may not go to Copenhagen, some others may now go.
So besides feeling like I, you, we are living in “Rome” under Caligula” do Henry Waxman, & Ed Markey get it? do other Democrats get it? Or are they bent on helping Obama destroy our economy.
Looks like another profession bit the dust, research scientists!, Who uses facts anymore, Hmm, not the MSM, Not the GAO, not the CIA, Not the Treasury Dept., not academia, (or most of it) Not Acorn (big surprise there) Nor many senators, certainly not Pelosi, or Reid. Put your own list together, its really getting laughable unfortunately the institutions that crumble have not replacement. How soon do we get to everyone for himself, what happens at that point!, Standards you ask, hell where are there any standard bearers! Check “6″
I’ve a question for you Steve:
When you say the emails were in a file that was “stored in a publicly accessible portion of the CRU computer network”, do you mean that any many of the public could have found them? Or would you still need at least some expertise to get into the CRU network (presuming you’re an outsider)? If so, they would technically have been “hacked”, no?
the “VINDICATED!” I LOVE IT!
What would it take to set up, and maintain, etc., a system of mirrors, in space, for the purpose of manipulating sunlight, therefore heat, not to just mitigate any “warming,” but to actually “control” weather, and what would the unintendeds likely be?