Spaniards Set to Throw Out Ruling Socialists (Update: Spain Turns Blue)
PJ Media: Does the PP presidential candidate, Mariano Rajoy, have a viable plan for brining Spain out of the economic crisis?
Guardia: He does have some interesting ideas — on taxation, support for entrepreneurship, and labor reform (which is sorely needed) — though in my opinion these ideas don’t go as far as they should, at least on paper. Rajoy has been calculatedly ambiguous, revealing only what really needs to be revealed and nothing more; the example of the UK’s Cameron‚ who was riding high in the polls until he detailed his plans‚ scared Rajoy away from being too explicit. So it’s difficult to know in advance.
And at the same time, it’s important to realize that Rajoy won’t have much leeway here. Some measures need to be taken ASAP, more or less; and some others will be “dictated” by the EU, which is just as good for Rajoy: he will be able to minimize the backlash using that fact as an alibi.
Kern: No one knows the answer to this question for sure, although it does seem unlikely that he has developed a comprehensive plan. Rajoy has been ahead in the polls for months and thus has not felt any need to present Spanish voters with an economic plan. Rajoy’s advisors almost certainly have identified some policy measures to be implemented almost immediately, such as providing tax breaks for Spanish industry. But Spain’s problems are truly vast in scale, and are also deeply structural in nature. There is simply no easy fix to Spain’s problems, and things are likely to get worse before they get better. Most economists forecast that it will take a decade or more for the country to recover the ground it has lost.
Senserrich: No one knows for sure. Rajoy has showed an admirable level of discipline this campaign by not telling anyone what he really intends to do. His party has been similarly tight-lipped, with very few hints on their future plans. A few months ago Rajoy did talk about some extensive reforms of Spain’s disastrously inefficient labor market, but he has not provided any further details.
Reading the tea leaves a bit, I think that Rajoy will go big once he is in office. He seems to be getting ready for a fight once he arrives to Moncloa. What I am not sure about is if he has the right plan in mind, as the party seems to be more focused on austerity than on structural reforms
PJ Media: Are Spanish voters willing to hear hard truths about what it will take to turn things around? After all, there was widespread outrage over austerity measures that passed earlier this year.
Guardia: There was outrage, but certainly not as big as in other countries, namely Greece. The truth is that most Spaniards are coming to terms with the fact that it’s going to be necessary to pass some painful measures if the economy is to be fixed. I sometimes joke that Zapatero has been the biggest “factory” of small-government supporters in Spain, a country where there were few. When you talk to people on the street, many now ask: Why have a government with so much power if that power can lead to such big failures? Or, why pay so much money for pensions and health care if at the end of the day these are going to be cut because there’s not enough money? They might as well pay for private retirement and medical services.
The so-called “indignants,” the protesters that inspired the Occupy Wall Street movement, were indeed vocal, but other than in the media they haven’t had much actual impact, or at least they didn’t in March’s local elections. I don’t think they will have a bigger impact this time. And if they do, they’ll either stay home or, even though they lean left, vote for other parties on the left other than the Socialists. This means that they will likely help make the PP’s win larger: due to Spain’s electoral system (halfway between proportional and majoritarian), the number of seats in parliament is bigger if the votes are concentrated in one party than if the same number of votes spreads among several.
Kern: Spain’s problems are deep-seated and above all structural. Spain’s economy is notoriously uncompetitive. Apart from olive oil and wine, Spain exports few products abroad, and even fewer that have much technological value.
One of the biggest problems facing Spain is the central government’s dysfunctional relations with the 17 autonomous communities (there are also two autonomous cities); Spain’s existing political model, which was established in the late 1970s after the death of General Francisco Franco, generates immense waste and duplication and is unsustainable over the long term.
Cultural factors also add to the mix: Spain has a huge problem with corruption, which affects all political parties (PJ Media article here). On top of that, Spain also has a big problem with tax evasion and the shadow economy represents around 20 percent of GDP.
In summary, Rajoy’s leadership abilities are completely untested and he has zero charisma to rally the general public around grand ideas. It remains to be seen whether he and his advisors will have the vision and the fortitude to implement the painful changes needed to get Spain back on track. Any changes to the status quo will be fiercely resisted by powerful interest groups on many levels of Spanish society. The odds would seem to be against Rajoy succeeding in any meaningful way, but if he assembles a team of competent technocrats and advisors to govern Spain, there certainly is hope.
Senserrich: It is hard to know. The Conservatives are likely to win a very large majority this Sunday, but it is hard to say if that will amount to a mandate. Voters will be voting against the Socialists, not endorsing the bold policies that Rajoy so far has refused to put forward, so any reform plan can prove a tough sell. In addition, the far-left parties are likely to increase their support at the expense of the Socialists, creating a loud, active opposition block against reform.
The current situation, however, is clearly unsustainable. Unemployment is sky high, economic growth is non-existent; most voters probably understand by now that this is not the time for playing it safe. My guess is that we will see some outrage and some protests, but that they are not likely to be widespread at least during the first few months.
If the euro-zone mess persists and the economy shows no signs of turning around by early 2014, however, all bets are off.
My, what a difference from 2004, when Spaniards thought voting for the PSOE would keep them safe and prosperous.
I spent alot of time in Spain, especially in 2004, and was aghast when Jose Aznar lost the election to Zappy. Still don’t know how he got re-elected either.
Sounds like Zapatero =Ozero/Schzbazz II.
Sometimes I think that the only hope for these “I want everything for free all the time” countries is to hit absolute bottom and start all over again. Trouble is there are only so many Ronald Reagan/Sarah Palins to go around when they hit bottom.
IMHO, the left in both Spain and the U.S. have very slickly set up both countries for long term failure even after their terms are up.Take Obmabcare for instance. These commiecrat bozos set up a ten year plan with only 7 years of payments beginning “after” their terms were up since both countries knew they would not stand a prayer of being reellected. Hopefully, people are only so stupid.
Problem is in both the US and Spain, less so here, it’s going to be really up hill to turn things around. This is due to the savage spending done under the prior socialist regimes and the all out war on capitalism.
If nothing else its gonna get interesting.
in ’04 Zapatero used his (party’s) ETA links to organise a “Al Qaeda” bomb attack just before the elections, and instantly blamed it on the PP government’s support for the US in Afghanistan and Iraq.
This won him the elections, and he’s not changed the way he’s worked much since.
There is a backlash against the Marxists that is brewing, but the conspiratorial media is doing its best to squash it.
In Mexico, especially Michuacan…one can see things moving toward the center, from the left…that would be unthinkable just a few years ago.
Spain is in desperate straits. They are so dependent upon the world economy having an uptick, that they have very little ability to self-determine their own fiscal fate…except to further destroy it.
The PIIGS are in a death spiral of Marxist makings. Turning to more lethal Marxists (Castro and Chavez) or toward the Sharia mullahfia…are signs of post traumatic socialist disorder.
Spain is on a fiscal suicide watch. Where the US is center right at its core, Spain is center left at its core. They do not need much prodding to go full bore sailing off the sanity cliff. Sadly, there may be no saving them.
The brand of Marxist Kool-Aid swallowed by the Spaniards is of the Jonestown variety. There are rarely survivors…and, alas…this is likely the fate of Spain, unless there is a complete reversal of Marxist influence worldwide.
The conspiratorial media will never let that happen. And so, whole countries must suffer. Spain among them.
“post traumatic socialist disorder”
An excellent term.
I wonder if the PP candidate, Mariano Rajoy, would do well by his election prospects and for the good of Spain’s people by being open and honest about the cure for Spain’s disordered political economy will take sweat, toil, and tears. (Rajoy can emphasize that he’s not asking for anyone’s blood, that was Zapatero’s demand.)
I visited Spain as a tourist years ago. I loved it. However.
My knowledge Latin Thought comes from Mexico and Puerto Rico. I have always been amused by a couple of things; the absolute acceptance of corruption and the Machismo Disease.
(I am treading on thin ice here…be nice. lol)
It seems that the ‘de nada’ response to corruption is a Latin-Catholic thing. Cheat, steal, get absolution. Besides, it takes much less work and thought to steal brazenly and routinely when no one really cares. The best thieves have the most prestige…which leads to…
The Machismo Disease. Humilty, the willingness to admit error, make corrections and move forward are (were!) a hallmark of Anglo Saxon economic progress. Socialism inherently refuses to learn from the past and, like the overly proud Don, makes flexibility and pragmatic thought impossible. After all “We (the elite and government employees) have lived well off graft for centuries, why should I change now.”
I am now ducking the slings and arrows.
ta
The ‘de nada’ response to corruption is a Protestant heresy that’s perverting a Latin-Catholic culture. Cheat, steal, once saved always saved, no problemo.
Try again.
mea culpa numero uno. or Duck! Still, the next week more stealing.
mea culpa. I think I will call that one arrow ducked. No problem. But, we steal and bribe again next week, yes?
That’s “no problema”.
Don’t confuse Protestant with Calvinist. And even a Calvinist would be wrong if he were to assume that he could do no wrong, even if he knew for certain that he were saved (which he couldn’t). He would then be a Latitudinarian.
By & large, I’m inclined to agree with Mr Hoskins’ first impressions, though the term ‘machismo’ is overworked today, a product of modern sociology/socialist framing. The Spanish have always been a very proud people (both genders), often to their detriment, though it did take them through the Reconquista & conquering a good portion of the world’s land mass.
I have more than a passing interest in Spain (which I last visited in summer 2009) & Hispanic culture. Among other experiences, I was assigned for a brief time to the Spanish Marines in Cádiz.
Michael, all of my friends who have visited Spain loved it. When there is still other people’s money to spend, socialist countries of Europe really are paradise for visitors who can then return home and actually make some money in their capitalist dog-eat-dog nation- after all the ones who can afford to travel to Europe generally are the top doggies (whether they think they are or not). It’s a credit to you that you were able to think through the appearances. A lot of people don’t- they just remember drinking wine on the terrace and the great public transportation and wish the US were more like Europe.
Being a latino who also lived in Spain I can say you are both wrong.
“De nada” is like the “you’re welcome”, a response to a “thank you” (gracias). Nothing to do with corruption or the like.
If you mean something like indifference as a response to corruption, then the term is “quemeimportismo”, (i-don’t-care-ism), for que me importa = I don’t care.
The second issue, corruption is not catholic or protestant. For heavens sake, it’s quite common for catholics to just put the blame on protestants just because they don’t like them. But the obvious thing is: Latin America and Spain are both QUITE catholic. All the corruption, the bureaucracy, the government-solves-all mindset, are correlated more to catholicism than to a tiny evangelical minority who are getting strong only after the second half of the XX Century.
Liberal Revolutions (in Latin America this means Classic Liberal, not Democratic-party liberal) started as a response to the Catholic-State complicity to rule everybody. Protestants couldn’t legally study, have churches, or even bury their loved ones in the same places as Catholics. Protestants were second-class citizens in Latin America (in this aspect, I can’t tell about Spain). Protestantism has been brought to us mostly by American missions, risking always life, prison, expulsion. As late as 1980, evangelical missionaries were forbidden to preach in some regions in Ecuador.
Now, I don’t want to state that: Catholicism = Corruption and every catholic person is evil. But to blame protestants for corruption in 90+% catholic Latin America is just a blatant falsehood.
Machismo.- Nothing to comment here. This IS a problem which Latin Americans share with every latin-Europe country (Portugal, Spain, Italia, Romania)
Thank you very much for the language lesson. Obviously needed. Regarding the Latin-Catholic (I am married to an ex Catholic), I did not intend to imply that corruption is religious, only that I have observed that largely Catholic Latin countries (Including Italy, for sure) seem to have a cultural attitude about corruption that is only exceeded in Islamic countries. I am not sure why…and am only speculating. It may stem from past ruling practices by both church and crown.
I do know this…religion and theology are two different things. Religion is man made and is our poor attempt to speak to God. By definition it is flawed. Theology is the study of God. Directly. It is limited by our ability to understand.
This means that centuries of church corruption, no matter how long ago, fed by political corruption in what ever time and place it occurred, can breed an accepting attitude.
ta
You have to remember that Christianity/Catholicism was just appliqued on the existing Roman social and political structure. The Roman client-patron system stayed largely intact and maybe even prospered after you could get forgiveness for excesses. To my mind the Roman Catholic Church is at least as much Roman, or was for a long time anyway, as Christian.
Interesting discussion.
I am Irish Catholic. Most of my friends are mexicans and central americans. Almost all the central americans come from evangelical families. They were just as likely to join the gang or seek premature carnal knowledge as the lapsed catholic Mexicans.
All of spain could convert from nominal catholic to nominal protestant tomorrow and nothing would change. The problem with Spain is that they lost their fear of God. Lose that and any society crumbles.
Evangelical Christianity is booming in Central Ameria and amoung Central American immigrants to US — for a multitude of reasons.
But I never been to Spain, so what the heck do I know?
“But I never been to Spain”
OK, I was waiting for that line…..somebody has to post this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lr0hV0CSzo
“But I kinda like the music/”
Even if you are right, they’ll never admit it.
The purpose of any religion is to describe the “truth” in meta physical non verifiable terms. All that is needed to say is “this is the truth because it comes from God”. And it all relies on unverifiable information, which is the hole point of any religion and why it’s called a “faith”. You believe in something above the mundane. And since the religion is flawless, any result coming from practicing said religion is per definition flawless. Any argument you might put forth based on logic or empirical evidence will fail.
What is verifiable is that all countries that are catholic are also highly corrupt and dysfunctional.
True, but it literally means, “of nothing,” so really it’s more like “no big deal,” rather than “you’re welcome.”
It’s usage that determines such things, not literal translations. In Brazilian Portuguese if I go into a restaurant and say “O de sempre”, the usual, it translates to “the of always.” When’s the last time you said that?
In Indonesia, according to their understanding of English, when they say to a tourist in English “where are you going?”, they mean “what’s up?”
The “nothing” in “de nada” most closely approximates saying “think nothing of it” or “it was nothing.”
If you want to be cool, try the slightly more archaic and slangly, “No ay de que.” “No there isn’t of that.” Trust me: they’ll understand you and be impressed.
In Indonesia, when they say, “where are you going?” say “Makan Angin” which means “eating wind”; an old school way of saying “out for a walk” in Indonesian. They’ll laugh and be even more impressed.
From my study and observation it goes back a lot further than Catholic/Protestant and such; it goes back to Rome and you find it to some degree in the countries with a strong Roman heritage. It is the old client-patron system that Rome ran on which when placed up beside our “protestant” notions looks a lot like corruption. From my experience in Mexico, the whole place runs like a strip joint; you have to pay to work there and you live off your tips and what you can steal or make on the side.
I know it violates a lot of “true conservative” ideas, but things like wage and hour laws and minimum wage laws that are actually enforced go a long ways toward insuring social order and a relatively stable economic system. Exploited labor is a breeding ground of discontent and the communists or other extremists are always poise to exploit discontent.
Now wait just a minute. Do you mean to tell me that a country that embraced Socialism, who told the world that it was going to work THIS TIME, who has flirted with Communism, Fascism and has denounce capitalism ad nauseum, is having economic problems? How, if everyone is equal and everyone get what they need, can this possibly be? Isn’t this exactly where the Zuccotti Park parasites want us to go? Isn’t this their idea of Nirvana?
Well congratulations deadbeats, immature children and unwashed hippies. You have your dream. I for one would donate my hard earned money to send all of them to Spain where they can live out their lives in undeoderized, unmedicated (except for party time drugs) and unrestrained unfettered humanism.
Please don’t let the screen door hit you on your way out.
A bunch of their ilk already went to Spain once as the Lincoln Brigade to fight on behalf of the Communists in the Spanish Civil War. They lost, but it got them exempted from the US draft, and may have barred them from US service, in WWII as “Premature Ant-fascists, or PAFs.”
Sean…LOL. Don’t be afraid to express yourself. Ouch!!
(The sad thing is that you are correct, damnit.)
I suggest that those at the top, indeed anywhere within Spain, or anywhere for that matter, heed what Rufus Blooter in his blog had in say in the entry “Iceland, Sweden, Ireland, States”
http://rufusblooter.blogspot.com/2011/06/iceland-sweden-ireland-states.html
Is the entry that I am referring to.
– bombings influenced the subsequent election.
I especially took note of the constant denial of the problem, until it was too late. Then came the profligate Keynesian spending. Finally, it all came apart. Yet, the next guy is going to struggle to implement any reforms. He may succeed, and he’ll get punished in the following election for making the correct, tough decisions.
The difference between them and us is, we haven’t gone completely bust yet, and our Leftists will not want to correct regardless.
It’s gonna be a near-run thing in the years to come, with the Left kicking, scratching, and gouging eyes the whole way.
Like Dad said “People get the government they deserve.”
If it wasn’t for the fact that the collapse of the Spanish bonds would probably take all of Europe, as well as the United States, down with it, I’d probably wish Spain goodbye and good luck. These are the same people that not only LOVED Socialism and Communism, but also ran away from Iraq as soon as al Qaeda exploded those bombs in Madrid. They made a commitment under José María Aznar to stay with us in Iraq, only to run away once Zapadero and the Socialists came into power. The Spanish have also given NATO only tepid (if any) help in Afghanistan and have decided to be isolationists within Europe, even though they still are a part of NATO. So now they’re crying because their “workers paradise” is going down the drain? Spare me. Even if they do get a conservative government in power, it may be too late to undo the damage the Socialists did. Perhaps Spain would look better to the United States if they denounced Socialism and put Zapadero in jail for destroying their economy. I find it very hard to find much pity for these people after how they stabbed Bush and the United States in the back in Iraq. So now they can deal with their own problems. And any American banks that invested in Spanish bonds pretty much deserve what they get.
“You’ll have to forgive him. He’s from Barcelona” Basil Fawlty (John Cleese)
Lol. I once had an Englishwomen say the same thing to me about her Scottish husband- after he showed me what was under his kilt, in a bar in London.
The Spanish bonds are not alive. They are undead. They are walking zombies. You cannot escape the fact that there is no underlying production of goods to support their value. So I would highly dispute any claim of a “doomsday scenario”, if they were to be “devalued”. They have no value to begin with. Whoever paid a high price for them, paid a high price for a piece of shit bond. And that means they themselves have no real value. The economic ecosystem already knows this because there is not coming any goods the other way. So the system won’t collapse. It will merely mean a price adjustment, because the unnatural flow of funds to unproductive areas like Spain would seize. And the flow of funds would go to productive entities instead.
Conclusion: If they were to fail it would mean increased production and prosperity overall.
Spain is going to have to face the facts that Socialism breeds POVERTY. It is going to be extremely difficult for Spain, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and others to come to terms with their profligacy.
The only Economic System which provides WEALTH for a Nation is Free (relatively) Market CAPITALISM. Hard work, innovation, and PROFIT for PRODUCERS will build an economy that can support itself.
However, Europeans are not demographically reproducing themselves; Europeans have given up on the future; Europeans have no faith in God or superior entity or Ethic Guiding Human endeavor. They are lost and their future is bleak.
The United States still has an opportunity to DESTROY the Socialist-Marxists in our midst politically and in our corrupt liberal colleges, Universities and K-12 Education system. America may be the “outlier” of Western Civilization still. We have hope. We simply have to CHANGE the disaster of Socialism-Marxism in our body politic.
“The only Economic System which provides WEALTH for a Nation is Free Market CAPITALISM.”
Right. But it also produces the widest range of individual wealth. This was shown in many studies of world economies where economic freedom correlated precisely and directly not only with overall wealth creation but with also with a high standard deviation in income. So this fact is always available to those (usually government types wanting power) who would create and exploit class envy.
Societies need to hit bottom, then they most people can see the truth about socialism. Then once propserity is restored, they forget again. And so it goes.
Is this what Obama calls leading by following? Also, big government that is plagued by corruption is alive & well here. Note, $787,000,000,000 stimulus/austerity/jobs/growth/infrastructure plan has been vurtually unnaccounted for, although recently we did find out where some of the money went (DOJ’s Fast & Furious).
Actually, the $787 BILLION porkulus was a “miscalculation.” The real amount of tax dollars stolen for use by ObaMao’s pals was $862 BILLION…but what’s a $75 BILLION “miscalculation” among Marxists?
Adios, Mr. Bean
I’ll never forget that the REAL reason the Marxists and Fascists of Spain (and Fascism is a far-left movement too) through out Aznar was that he was guilty of the most heinous crime possible to the degenerate Nazi scumbag population of Spain.
He was (to them) a filthy Jew-lover.
And if there is one thing the scumbag people of Spain hate more than Jews, it is a Jew-lover.
Probably not, economic deterioration has progressed beyond a recovery.
This incredibly stupid idea that an economy can only be sustained by continued population growth ignores the consequences of how many people can be stuffed into a phone booth. Is a planet with 100 billion people on it “healthy?”
Moreover, replacing the lack of births with failure from the Third World who are also expert con men when it comes to exploiting political correctness results in another Third World country, not a success story.
Spain is Spain: whoever helms it isn’t going to change it into a clever version of Singapore and importing Hispanics from South America will be a step in the opposite direction not a “solution.” Spain is surviving despite immigration, not because of it, and not very well I might add.
The equally incredible and more stupid idea that a country can sustain itself with a rapidly shrinking and ageing population, much less recover from a debacle such as Europe has created, is ridiculous. The problem is socialist mismanagement, not overpopulation, A shrinking population aggravates the problem.
So there’s no going back? Ever? That’s your creative thought for today?
At the apogee of civilization we must simply burst at the seams with humanity until lack of food dooms us?
Don’t be a fool: of course we can shrink. We can do it slowly and with brains or disastrously and with mass murder as will happen some day in Egypt and Nigeria.
In fact, we MUST shrink to survive. There are no more New Worlds.
“We MUST shrink to survive.”
Birth rates are dropping like a rock around the world. In Europe and all the industrialized world they are already so far below replacement (1.0 births per couple in Portugal!) that they have no hope of surviving as a distinct culture and you’re still peddling this Malthusian, Mr. Smith in The Matrix, man as virus nonsense?
That’s your creative thought for today?
The problem with your dumb argument is that you jump from 10 million people in Portugal to 10,000 and start crying the sky is falling. Of course the population will in fact shrink gradually and then stabilize, not shrink to zero and the entire country will be better for it.
As for a creative thought: what was your solution? I didn’t quite hear it. Growth forever? Replacements from a failed Third World? They can’t even build a frickin’ Roman aqueduct and in this imaginary new Forth World, a man who understands fractal geometry will be like a god.
Mr. Prixit thinks Portugal isn’t big enough to make the argument against overpopulation worries. 2.02 children per woman just maintains a population. From the CIA factbook (and numerous other references) China is at 1.77. Russia is at 1.33. Those big enough for ya? Over 100 countries are below replacement rate.
As to my solution to overpopulation, well… I’m not sure how to break it to you but I’m arguing that there is no overpopulation problem. That kind of lets me off the hook for a “solution” don’t you think?
He mentioned Portugal cuz you did. I didn’t see him using Portugal’s size as an argument. No matter the size of a country, it’s dumb to think it’s an uncontrollable slide to zero once started.
There’s no overpopulation problem? There are 85 million living on a river in Egypt and 160 million in Nigeria. You can’t move in Mumbai. They had to invent a new strain of rice in Java just to keep that overpopulated island from starving and that was years ago. Jungles are disappearing all over the world and there have been pollution alerts going back years from trees burning in Sumatra and Guatemala.
In 1998 I couldn’t see a volcano a mile away in Guatemala from the haze from smoke created up north. Florida issued respiratory alerts and running races were cancelled. Try and educate yourself as to what’s going on in the world you live in. There is unprecedented strain in regard to feeding and housing people.
Wake up.
A shrinking population means fewer workers to pay the benefits needed for the “entitled” class.
I read the BBC a lot because it covers worldwide events with less of a leftist bias than CNN (sad but very true). They have a pretty good series that explains the Euro crisis in some detail. Here’s what they had to say about the possible cures. Get a load of the last few lines:
“The authorities could at least do more to head off the recession.
Depression-era economist John Maynard Keynes said there were two options – cutting interest rates and increasing government spending.
The ECB did indeed cut rates at its meeting on Thursday, but only by a quarter-point to 1.25%. It is an encouraging start…… The problem is that lending more money only helps if the money gets spent. So ideally governments should also be spending more.
But only one government is able to borrow and spend on the scale needed – Germany.
Thanks to the crisis, Berlin can borrow so cheaply that the interest it pays would probably be less than the inflation rate.
In effect, panicky markets are offering to lend Germany money for free.
But Germany does not believe in Keynesian economics. It does not believe in borrowing and spending.
And this is what may ultimately sink the euro boat.”
You just gotta love it. The Beeb can’t quite bring itself to say that the REASON why Germany can borrow is because they don’t buy the whole Keynesian theory in the first place. But it’s right there for anyone with half a brain to read.
The Euro and the Euro zone is doomed. Hold on to your hats, folks.
A recession is the period when the poor investments of the previous boom are sorted out – assets are liquidated, funds are re-directed. It’s the ‘cold turkey’ healing time; painful but necessary. Of course that doesn’t suit the political cycle, so the politicians keep pumping the juice in to keep the ‘high’ going, with the end result we see; a long, deep recession/depression instead of a short correction.
I can imagine the legacy: a landscape dotted with ugly, rusting wind mills.
Doesn’t it make you wonder what will happen in China? Talk about pumping the juice in, and poor investments….
When combined with their horrible demographics, an easy way to both get rid of surplus men and deal with the “recession” is easy to see. Taiwan and the Russian Far East should be practicing duck and cover.
I echo your sentiment on BBC, Dana.
Though like CNN, BBC gives Conservative analysts, pols etc., a minuscule of time to their Illiberal counterparts. Nearly ALWAYS stops their lucid points mid sentence for ‘..in other World news’.
Being a football fan though there’s A LOT of talks, time to the EPL, Barclays etc., ( :
Hyperinflation 1923
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4KsREg_IU8&feature=related
Go figure, when a short time ago Spain had a Conservative leader, boasted of economic prosperity and low unemployment. *shocker* the socialist (little ‘s’ for a reason) facade has failed yet again in such a short time.
Not to mention whoda thunk ‘green energy’ initiatives would be a go-nowhere economic bust and failure. Oh yeah.. EVERYONE who doesn’t worship Mother Gaia with reckless abandon.
BTW, when visiting I found Southern Spain (Sevilla, Moron and surrounding smaller towns) to be far more interesting and cultured than Barcelona, Madrid. Yes, La Segrada Familia is amazing ( fortunately visited L S F shortly before the arsonist incident) though Barcelona and Madrid seemed to be filled with more crappy chain restaurants, cafes and HORRIBLE bars and clubs than the Mom and Pop joints open ‘until you’re done’ attitude dotting the South.
The Conservative site that specializes in European politics and economics – http://www.robbingamerica.com – is predicting that “Monday Spain Will Wake Up Conservative”.
But they also make an interesting point about the differences between Spain and America in how elections are held. The Spanish way seems a lot better.
I have never set foot in Spain; however, I know one thing all of Europe’s problems can not be cured with a ballot. If this was possible people would have voted to reverse these trends but they have not. The simple truth is you get into a place and there is just nothing you can do, only an outside agency can force change. Here in the U.S. the individual in this strait stands in front of a judge and declares bankruptcy. A nation, I don’t know what but I am fearful and can only hope we here in the U.S. can right ourselves.
There is much wisdom in this comment.
Zappatero is an odius Socialist. He looks like a useless Forest Gump, the Putney Swope of Sanish Socialism after the glamorous Felipe Gonazles completely wrecked their economy rising in the 80′s, a fast talking “Union Organzier”, it was difficult to replicate his “charisma” and elan. he is not as bad as pelosi but more like a new orlean Mayor Nagin during the Katrina disaster- a “useless idiot”!
“….highest unemployment rate in the industrialized world”? The core problem for Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Ireland is tht they are not part of the industrialized world. They have virtually no industrial production. Just how do you turn your economy around and increase employment when your your only consequential exports are olive oil, wine or beer, cork, oranges, figs and sardines and your only other revenue source is tourism? Failure to face this brutal truth and then be carried away by socialist pressure to provide the same generous welfare as the industrial northern European countries do, is the root cause of their collapse. But oh how lovely it is to gaze upon the beautiful vineyards and beaches and be waited upon by the friendly unionists.
Sorry but unlike Greece Spain has a very large industrial sector – Catalonia and the Basques are among Europe’s most industrialized and wealthiest regions. Spain’s car production is also among the highest in Europe, although it is mainly owned by German VW. The problem has been wage costs rising faster than its European competitors. Spain’s agricultural industry has also been among the mosy efficient jin Europe and now supplies most of Europe with fruits andn vegetables. It has far outpaced Italy’s agriculture industry, which used to compete with it. Spain suffered from a major housing bust, which occured because membership in the EU provided it with too cheap loans.
But it is not a diverse economy and therein lies the hub hub, bub.
Forgot to tag the above.
Ironically,the underground economy is the very thing that can save economies,pure capitalism. I give you goods and services you give me your worthless currency or other goods and services n trade. Currencies survive and have long term value only in capitalisitic societies.
In 1492, Spain expelled all the Jews. It’s been all down hill ever since.
Except for Raphael Nadal.
Yes anti-Semitic sentiment in Spain is among the highest in Europe, which is already at record levels. Zapatero, who regulArly wore a keffiya at rallies and followed a consistently anti-Israeli foreign policy easily articulated and captured these sentiments. Former President Aznar has now become one of Israel’s strongest supporters. But Rajoy? Why were there no questions asked about Rajoy’s position on Israel or for that matter Euroarabia, which Zapatero welcomed? From some of the responses it appeared that the commentators have no problem with Zapatero opening Spain to millions of Arabs from Morocco and Algeria. I would expect a somewhat more critical perspective fromPJ Media.
Seems the article and comments are really off point, but what can I expect.
The elephant in the unemployed room is what about the North Africans? How much claim do they have to social programs and what is their employment and unemployment rate?
Based on the above someone or most will start yelping about jobs no Spaniard wants. Actually it seems that many native agricultural laborers went away and their jobs went to immigrants. Now they want their old jobs back and that is not happening. An old say is: “Quien tiene moro, tiene oro.” I think that North Africans might have found a home.
I wonder what sort of Jarabe Tapatio the government will do around this particular hat.
The article reminds me of a debate over how many Spaniards can delude themselves to believing just voting conservative changes anything. The election doesn’t matter. Things in Spain will not get better until after they get terrible. Let the band play continue the party the water will be cold.
Nothing about the Euro? Germany is economically clobbering the rest of Europe. If Spain never joined the Euro it could inflate it’s currency and become a very cheap tourist spot and manufacturing center. The Euro has trapped Spain.
Instead Spain has no barrier against the Dutch and German economies and are getting smashed. Spain has to out Germany the Germans to rebound and that will not happen.
First exit poll from El Pais:
Sondeo RTVE: Mayoría absoluta del PP (181-185); PSOE, 115-119
Absolute majority conquered by the PP, the socialists lost.
I tend to agree with the people who say that the results of this election won’t make any difference. It’s what it portends for Democracy that worries me. If voting won’t make politicians behave responsibly what will?
Someone mentioned the old Roman patron-client relationship. Getting warm here. Countries like Greece, Italy, Spain have history in common. In particular, the Roman tax-farming system. Tax-gathering in the Roman Republic and Empire was privatised. There was a profit motive. The ‘publicans’ collected taxes well in excess of what was paid into the fisc’ at Rome. People learned any and which way to avoid paying. This habit was something well over 2000 years old. It isn’t going to be overcome any time soon. Oh, yes, the French farmed taxes right up to the Revolution. There was even a Farmer-General that had nothing to do with agriculture. Tax and tax, spend and spend.
In Greece and the Southern Balkans in general, the Ottoman History plays a big part too.
But it is generally true, the universalism and absolutism of Rome carried on in both the Catholic Church as well as the political cultures of the former core Roman provinces which maintained Latin language and custums post-500.
Max Weber talked about the protestant work ethic, but another point is that in Scandinavia, Britain and the non-Romanized part of Germany the old Germanic traditions of elected kings and tribal councils and thus the ideas of non-absolutist rule and religion stayed alive through the centuries. There was after all talk of freedom, rights and accountable government in England well before the reformation and it went back to the old laws.
This distinction tells you a lot about the different body politics in Europe and the way they approach politics, culture and life in general.
But really wasn’t it more a system of “tax and steal” or, more charitably, tax for profit? Doesn’t seem directly analogous to government taxing (or borrowing) excessively so that it can spend excessively. Though I can see the analogy if you look at it as the government taxing excessively so that it can profit from the tax by showering the proceeds on its clients/constituents. So, I guess we can call the Democrats the party of tax-farming, though Republicans are not immune to pitching money to their favorite “friends.”
Actually, it was the empire taxed, the tax collectors stole, and the governors looked the other way. Jesus and John the Baptist both had many contacts with tax collectors, and they only objected to the theft and extortion, not the taxes themselves. Nothing except a tax collector’s own greed kept him from being honest.
I doubt the governors “looked the other way” without a price; that’s certainly the way it works in today’s world.
“Spain Turns Blue”
Da-ba-dee, da-ba-dei
22% unemployment?
Eliminate the minimum wage.
Problem solved.
Let the market decide what wages should be.