Somalia’s Islamists Are … Retreating?
On August 5, 3,000 Islamist fighters from al-Shabaab — the terror group affiliated with al-Qaeda — fled Somalia’s capital city of Mogadishu for the relative safety of the rural southern regions they still control. Is al-Shabaab on the ropes? And if so, how have heavily armed revolutionary Islamists in Somalia been pushed back, when they are advancing in so many other places?
The embattled Transitional Federal Government’s (TFG) spokesman Abdirahman Omar Osman gleefully declared the event a “golden victory for the Somali people.” In contrast, al-Shabaab’s spokesman Ali Mohamed Rage suggested the withdrawal was merely due to a change in military tactics, insisting that al-Shabaab intends to use guerrilla warfare against TFG forces and the 9,000 African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) troops.
In fact, al-Shabaab is weakening, due to several factors:
Defeat on the battlefield. Starting more than a year ago, al-Shabaab has been under sustained pressure from the AMISOM forces. In January 2010, the under-supplied AMISOM controlled only the airport, the state house (Villa Somalia), and the famous K-4 junction in Mogadishu. Three months later, their control was extended by the establishment of twelve bases. By October, despite an al-Shabaab offensive in August, they had pushed the Islamist fighters even further back. They took control over additional areas, including the Juba Hotel, Bondere, Shakara, the parliament building, Dabka junction, Fishbay, and Singale.
As result of the courageous actions of AMISOM forces, the TFG controlled 60 percent of Mogadishu by October 2010. AMISOM had defeated the Islamist offensive, killed 1000 al-Shabaab fighters, and expanded its positions to 26 bases across Mogadishu. This year, AMISOM continued to push back al-Shabaab fighters further. The recent decision by newly independent South Sudan to send troops to Somalia will further beef up AMISOM’s forces.
Internal conflicts in al-Shabaab. Tensions have been escalating within the organization along a number of fissures: between members of the dominant Hawiye clan within al-Shabaab and non-Hawiye members; between foreign fighters who are often in leadership positions and Somalis who are not; between more nationally minded Islamists and global jihadists; and between the movement’s different regional commands.
Regional famine. There is strife between commanders who want international aid agencies to enter their territory and assist the starving and those opposed to any foreign humanitarian intervention for ideological reasons.
A government amnesty offer. In recent months high-ranking officials and fighters have defected to the TFG, complaining about the extremism of some Islamist ideologues in the movement. Among those changing sides was Muhammad Abdullahi, commander of the Maymana Brigade, and Ali Hassan Gheddi, deputy commander of al-Shabaab forces in the Middle Shabele region. The African Union’s proposal for a dialogue with the more pragmatic, if not moderate, elements within al-Shabaab has split the group.
Nice to see that something in Somalia is actually getting better, such as the partial destruction of al-Shabaab. Somalia has been a basket case for roughly 30 years now. Not that it’s going to start functioning like a real country anytime soon. It will still be a tribal nation constantly suffering from endless civil war. Perhaps one day they will get tired of killing each other and actually form a stable government. Then again, I also think the New York Jets will win a few Super Bowls too. Forget it.
al-Shabaab –may be stupid, but they are not that stupid. They are just “strategically advancing to the rear” to allow the poor people to be fed by the Infidels. In the process, indirectly they will resupply themselves with some food too..don’t expect flowers to grow there anytime soon…
“More help for AMISOM and the TFG might help bring about a bigger victory against the revolutionary Islamists.”
Translation: Paid for by USA.That is the only certainty.
The “might help bring about a bigger victory”-is pure wishful rubbish.
In fact, this whole article- the premise “victory in Somalia” is false.
This is a good article but it leaves out perhaps the major reason for al-Shabab’s setback: the armed and rhetorical opposition from the pan-Sufi organization Ahl al-Sunnah wa-al-Jama`ah (ASJ), drawing upon the long tradition of conflict between Sufis (mystics) and Qur’anic literalists like al-Shabab. I am frankly shocked that Prof. Solomon does not even mention this. If he reads these comments, it would be good of him to explain.
Dear Tim
Thanks for your comments – the Sufis certainly play a role but my understanding is that they have been running out of steam for a number of reasons. If interested – this article comes from a longer piece I am working on and would be happy to pass this on to you
Professor Solomon,
Thanks so much. My sources don’t say the same, but I shan’t discuss them on here.
If you would be so kind, my email is tfurnish@bellsouth.net
I am starting up a new government in Mog. If you are a mercenary, an international freedom fighter, a militant christian fundamentalist, or a missionary- you, your family, and your friends are invited to help us stake out our kingdom. Brings rifles and ammo. More details to follow.
@earl: “a militant christian fundamentalist, or a missionary”
Dream on! Come back when you figure out what missionaries actually do!
@earl: “a militant christian fundamentalist, or a missionary”
Dream on! Come back when you figure out what missionaries actually do!
This is a straightforward and well written piece that is based on realities on the ground. We need more such analysis.
Mr. Kalpakian:
But what about my point–that the good professor never examines Ahl al-Sunnah wa-al-Jama`ah, perhaps the biggest reason why al-Shabab is in retreat?
Back in the 1500s and 1600s in Europe, there were several religious wars and attempts to set up “godly” governments. They didn’t last because MOST people don’t want to religious all the time. Religious maniacs are like communist true believers: eventually they become hated by reasonable people.
I read an interesting article recently that showed how the ANISOM was benefiting greatly from having hired a few military contractors as expert trainers for their troops in the field. Talk about a little money well spent!
Do you know who funds ANISOM? ANd who funds al-Shabaab?
Did you know Quadaffi was involved-guess who he was funding?
Yes, Italy -I heard “volunteered” some experts. I don’t know who paid for
any experts. Most of funding comes from US and some from EU countries.
Some African countries send troops- but -they are paid and fed and clothed by funds from whom- you guessed it- mostly US..
I am not sure any aid over the years that we have sent helps anyone, except the administrators who allow it to “trickle down” to those in need. To cite an exception, going back 55 years ago, the Marshall Plan helped Europe recover keeping the Communism at a distance; that help made a contribution in the rebuilding and restoration. Europe had one to turn to. Today, are they our friends? Just a thought.
Not sure if it is mentioned in here but we, the US, are also providing training to the soldiers who are doing the work in Somalia. Unfortunately, not many know of our efforts in Africa, to include the Africans, assisting in the success of this story. It is also because it is an AU vs. UN mission, if it were a UN mission it would more than likely not be as successful. Maybe we should take a look at the success of the AU vs. the UN and why it is happening. Pretty sure I already know the answer…
“Maybe we should take a look at the success of the AU” -
Maybe I need glasses…