Six Questions that May Decide the Presidential Contest of 2012
According to recent polls, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are beating President Barack Obama. Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul are all within the margin of error. Yet the potential candidates aren’t ready to measure drapes for the Oval Office.
Said Huckabee recently, “I don’t think that Barack Obama is going to be easy to beat.” Huckabee’s caution is appropriate. Running a losing presidential campaign isn’t a way to enhance your influence. In addition, a Huckabee loss in the general election would be used against any conservative Evangelical running for the White House in the future.
With such high stakes, betting on early polls is folly. Liberal analyst Nate Silver hit the nail on the head, saying the “idea of trying to apply a ‘likely voter’ model 2.5 years in advance of an election is dubious.” There is a more scientific way to have a picture of what America’s electoral landscape looks like for 2012. Professor Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys method has predicted the popular vote outcome of every election since 1984, and the keys retroactively explain the popular vote in every election since 1856.
Lichtman’s keys measure the mood of the nation. Each statement, if true, favors the reelection of the incumbent. If eight or more statements are true, the incumbent party will be reelected. If this is not the case, the incumbent will lose. How do these indicators look right now?
Four of these key statements will be true or will likely be true, three of these statements are false or will likely be false, and the remaining six are toss-ups.
True or Likely True
- Obama will be the incumbent.
- He will not likely face a serious opponent in the Democratic Primary.
- He’ll still have his charisma.
- He has effected a major change in policy.
This fourth key deserves an asterisk after the passage of ObamaCare. Lichtman had programs such as Social Security and Medicare in mind when coming up with the policy change key, and both of these bills enjoyed vast bipartisan support in Congress and with the general public.
It is unprecedented for the president and Congress to effect a major policy change on something so personal and on something that Americans don’t want, so a historical model that assumes that major policy changes are passed as a result of wide, public support may need tweaking.
False or Leans False
- Party mandate
- Long-term economy
- Foreign policy success
These keys look to favor the GOP. For the party mandate key to be false, Republicans must pick up a modest 26 House seats, which would reduce the number of Democrats in the House below the 233 they held after the 2006 midterms.
In order for the long-term economy key to favor the president, “real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.” Given the strong growth enjoyed during most of the Bush years and the weakness of the economy so far, this seems quite unlikely to occur.
“Since 1896, an incumbent party has only been driven from power after one term once.”
Um….what?
1992, George H. W. Bush, first-term incumbent…..loses to Bill Clinton.
1980, Jimmy Carter, first-term incumbent…..loses to Ronald Reagan.
1976, Gerald Ford, first-half-term incumbent…..loses to Jimmy Carter.
This must be some sort of “new math”. I’m not planning on looking back 80 more years when recent memory furnishes such examples — there’s something odd about that statement.
Bush Sr. was a third continuous Republican term, and Nixon/Ford was a second continuous Republican term. The one case he’s referring to was Carter, which actually bodes well for Republicans.
I guess this means we will have to sit here watching as the liberal Democrat Party slowly collapses one crummy piece of crap after another until all thats left is a puddle of smelly pee on the floor..
So be it.
You can toss Professor Allan Lichtman’s 13 Keys into the trash this time.
Why?
The United States has never had a President that generated anything close to the worldwide wholesale amounts of anger and fear as Barrack Hussein Obama.
We’ve never had a President that made a business out of insulting our allies at the same time submitting himself to radical Muslim leaders, tearing down our own national defenses and spitting into the face of our own military leaders.
We’ve never had a President that has seized command and control over the banks, major American companies, lending institutions and private lives of each and every citizen.
We’ve never had a President whose best friends invoke God’s name to curse America or committed violent acts of terror against our own cities and government.
We’ve never had a President whose religion preaches hatred and revenge of the United States, Israel, white people and Jews to their children.
We’ve never had a President that made jokes about young people born with crippling and/or disabling diseases.
We’ve never had a President that referred to the possibility of his own daughters becoming pregnant out of wedlock as, “Not wanting them to be punished with a baby”.
We’ve never had a President that called white police officers “Stupid”.
There is more. Much, much more.
Enough to safely say we’ve never had a President that ran out of friends as fast as Barrack Hussein Obama did.
That includes the members of his own race and other minorities, like the Latinos that invested so much of their dreams, their hopes and prayers into a man that has massively betrayed them with every arrogant, sneering, snickering and self-centered breath he takes.
There is a great and terrible storm gathering on the horizon for 2010 and 2012. That is one key everyone can take to the bank.
The only way the Good Guys can lose is to nominate a candidate obnoxious to lots of Good Guys.
Huckabee is such. Palin is such. Paul is such. Romney and Gingrich are such.
The unscriptural, illogical theologies of Huckabee, Romney and Gingrich repel any serious student of scripture, history or logic.
Palin is a dimwitted alaskan housewife, with a dysfunctional family. If she can’t even run a family, how will she run a nation?
Paul leaves God out of it all. So, lets leave Paul out of it all.
Dingbat Huckabee feels that, because of a momentary notion that God has forgiven his(unrepented) sins, he is free to sin without limit and still go to heaven. That is baptist theology, and the necessary consequence thereof, denials notwithstanding. That is “salvation by faith alone”; a most precise contradiction of Jas.2.24 and dozens of other passages.
Dingbat Romney believes that God is a flesh and bones guy, who was once just like any other man, and who lives on a planet called Kolob, where his major activity is sexual intercourse with thousands of wives. There are supposed to be millions of such “gods”. I don’t want a nut like that even walking my dog, let alone running the country.
Gingrich just converted to Roman Catholicism, the archhypocritcal obscenity which openly defies the word of God at almost every turn and, like the baptists, even contradicts itself- and often.
I want a bible believing man who lives according to the scriptures and has extensive military and political experience as well as economic acumen.
Do we know of any such? Like the Proverbs 31 Lady, he is worth more than rubies.
I couldn’t have said it better myself! We need a George Washington, not a George Soros! We need someone who is reluctant to lead; but does it because his country is in the hands of Marxists, Socialists, and atheists…and when I say “man” I mean human because as long as he or she is led by God and HIS principles; we will be OK. God, Please bless the USA!!!
Amen, brother!
If you believe that Baptists and Catholics are heretics, and that the grace of God is license to sin, maybe its your theology that needs examination. And based on what do you accuse Huckabee of not living his faith? James does not say that salvation is by works, to the exclusion of faith, but rather, that faith that doesn’t affect your actions is no faith at all! Did not Huckabee openly rebuke such politicians who insist that their faith has no effect on their policies, much to the shock of many people that he actually had the courage to stand on his convictions and defend them, even to the point of losing the election over them if it had to come to that? So not only are you grossly misrepresenting the doctrines of your fellow Christians, but you falsely accuse a man of doing what you and everybody else knows he didn’t do. In short, get behind me, Satan!
“Palin is a dimwitted alaskan housewife, with a dysfunctional family. If she can’t even run a family, how will she run a nation?”
Forgot your /sarc tag.
Some people believe whatever the MSM tells them to believe.
Hopefully most people have educated themselves about candidates enough to know better, but where in the world do you get Hucakbee believes “a momentary notion that God has forgiven his(unrepented) sins, he is free to sin without limit and still go to heaven”?
Showing his usual good Reaganesque humor. Once asked by a lady if he was one of those narrow-minded types and thought only Baptists go to Heaven. His reply… No, I’m even more narrow minded. I don’t think all the Baptists will make it either.
He said this light heartedly, but he obviously isn’t all about the technicalities of calling oneself a Christian and that anything goes.
http://www.cornell.edu/video/?VideoID=221 Pay particular attention at the 12 minute mark.
Yeah, I want a narrow minded mouth breather like …… You!
/snark off
moron
Now, children, keep it calm.
More important questions from my POV are:
Will the candidate promise to cut the Federal Gov’t by 50%?
Will the candidate promise to shut the EPA, Dept of Ed, et al?
Will the candidate prosecute the WoT seriously?
Will the candidate promise to make US energy independent, while ending this alternative scam?
Will the candidate rescind the latest raise in CAFE standards as unnecessary?
Will the candidate promise to prosecute political corruption?
I could add to the list indefinitely. Your mileage may vary.
Totally agree!!!
Preach it!
End the fed Ed dpt!!!!!!!!!!!
Unfortunately (for you at least) your POV has not a thing to do with winning a national election. In fact, a “yes” on either of your first two questions would guarantee that your candidate lost the election. You hold extreme moniority views, perhaps not here in the PJM echo chamber. But in the real world, at least. You should learn to live with the fact that your candidates will never be elected, try not to get bitter.
“I guess this means we will have to sit here watching as the liberal Democrat Party slowly collapses one crummy piece of crap after another until all thats left is a puddle of smelly pee on the floor..So be it.”
This comment is poetic in its inelegance…I love it.
geoffgo:
Love it & agree. A candidate with a spine would be nice.
Will the candidate finish building the fence?
Will the candidate send all illegal prisoners back to their countries of origin?
Will the candidate be openly proud of this country?
Oh, I can dream of such a person getting past all the party crap to be a nominee.
Good article, but I’m not sure I accept the following statement:
“As Obama will likely raise another billion dollars in 2012…”
A great many of the people who contributed then won’t next time. People do tend to grow up for the most part. I also don’t see him getting any compemsating bounce out of new contributors either. He’ll have a well funded campaign, but not the resources that he had last time.
It’s far from certain that the Kos Kids will have managed to re-fill their piggy banks by the time 2012 rolls around. The economy has been rough, and allowances have suffered.
What if each one of the 20 to 30 million illegal Hispanics in the country that send somewhere around 35 to 40 billion under the table American dollars back south of the border every year spot $5.00 to Obama?
Would that do the trick?
“Let me be clear, you do that for me Amigos and I gonna make sure you get your 100% amnesty – - right after my second inauguration…”
I just want a fiscal conservative/small gov type that WILL ACTUALLY “DO” WHAT HE SAYS!!! In other words a charismatic leader that has balls! Jan Brewer sized balls!
Tired of same old GOP leaders who are typical pols and say one thing then do another when in office, or they have some social agenda. NO social agenda…God is great in your personal life and if that leads you then great…but dont force that on others, just let it guide you to being a good leader. Stick to small gov and be more true to capitalism.
Seems like i ask for WAY WAY to much from what i see of Romney, Huckabee, Palin, and gingrich is the worst of the bunch(totally ball-less). We need Fresh blood that that will stick to their guns. All these others will not!
Whether or not Obama faces a serious challenger in the Democrat primary is at present unknowable. If the economy fails to recover and if his personal popularity continues to fall, it’s possible that somebody will step up to challenge him.
As to his “charisma”, that was always more a factor of media projection than anything else. People claim that he can be warm and friendly in small group settings. However in large groups, he as always come across as aloof and condescending. This tendency only gets worse when he feels threatened or challenged in anyway. Another situation that will only get worse over the next two years.
Finally, with regard to the economy. There’s not much chance that the economy will be healthy in 2012. The European crisis is not over yet. The only question now is will the next shoe fall in 2011 or 2012.
The home mortgage crisis is not over, and the commercial mortgage crisis is only now getting wound up.
As the debt continues to grow, it will be harder and harder for the govt to find enough people willing to risk their future by buying our bonds. This is going to make interest rate payments go up for everyone, not just the govt.
Will there be a third party?
On the right, I don’t see it happening. The Tea Party movement has stated over and over again that they don’t want to be a party, but rather to influence the two existing parties.
If Obama tries to moderate himself in order to appear less scary to the independant voters, there’s always a chance that the hard core left will bolt, either stay home, or vote for someone like the Greens. The greater the left wing dissatisfaction with Obama becomes, the better the chances that a big name lefty will accept the Greens nomination.
Social Unrest.
That depends on how the left responds to the continued failure of Obama to pass their agenda. If the Republicans gain enough seats this year to start chipping away at some of the existing left wing shiboleths, there is a good chance that there will be a summer of discontent, but it will once again, be the liberals who are rioting in the streets.
Major Scandal.
Not a freaking chance. No matter what happens, the MSM won’t cover it. You can’t have a major scandal these days without wall to wall media coverage. The MSM would never permit that to happen. The alternative medias don’t have the scope and budget to take their place. Not yet.
Foreign policy failure.
The odds are very much in favor of this. However, unless it’s something spectacular that the media can’t ignore, you can count on the MSM doing everything in their power to either ignore the story, or blame it on someone else.
Republicans nominating a war hero or someone charismatic.
As the author mentioned, there are no war heros at present who could fit that bill.
As to someone charismatic, never underestimate the ability of the Republicans to shoot themselves in the foot there. (Dole, McCain, need I say more?)
Another thought on Obama’s so called charisma.
In 2008, he was running for a job that he really wanted. It was also the only thing he was doing at the time.
In 2012, Obama will have already been president for 4 years. He’s already showing signs that the job is a lot harder and a lot less fun than he thought it would be. In 2012, he will be 4 years into the first full time job he has ever had. Now he will have to add campaigning to that full time job. If he completely ignores his present job, like he did every other time he ran for office, it will show in his job performance. Even those moderates who might be tempted to vote for him will be put off if starts neglecting his presidential duties.
When Obama gets tired, he gets testy, and he doesn’t hide it very well.
I do not believe he will be anywhere near as effective a campaigner as he was last time. (And the only reason he was effective last time, was because the media worked over time to ignore and downplay his gaffes.)
The guy is both outwardly arrogant and inwardly insecure. He may choose not to run, a kind of “they no longer deserve me” rationalization of not wanting to campaign.
His chin up arrogance made him an adorable challenger. But that doesn’t translate well as president.
The Republicans will win big in November 2010 and then proceed to check Obama’s exploding government agenda. This will result in a revived economy in 2011-12. Obama will be credited for the revival and win reelection in November 2012.
It will take a lot more than a recovering economy to ensure Obama’s re-election.
It will take a lot more than just ensuring that no more of Obama’s plans pass to create a recovering economy.
Republicans would need to carry a net of 39 seats in order to gain control of the house in 2010. Democrat’s will almost certainly retain control of the Senate. There are two instances of this happening in the past – first under Trueman and then later in Clinton’s first midterm. Clinton’s failures leading to the Republican triumphs in ’94 are well documented and don’t need repeating but Obama has avoided most of Clinton’s most egregious mistakes. Thus I would not expect a Republican sweep in 2010 even though they should make solid gains.
I would expect 2012 to roll with the Dems as well barring continued economic troubles, scandal or Afghanistan turning into a Vietnam. The power of incumbency should not be under rated. My best guess is that the Republicans have a chance to return to power in the 2014 mid terms barring a significant crisis.
But politics can be a wild ride, so at the end of the day we will know what happens the day after the elections and til then these remain idle speculations and conjecture.
Think this might influence things…?
These are pics of students at the California HS which kicked-out 5 kids for wearing US flags on 5 May. THESE students are taking down the American flag and flying the mexican flag, over the up-side down US flag!
Send it around and make it make a difference!
link
Sorry, but the link only works for those logged on to Oath Keepers site. I’m workin’ on it.
Here’s a link to the original article. Sorry…
link
I’m a little embarrassed. The original source from which I got this failed to mention that these pics are from ’06! I apologize. This is old news.
It’s gonna be a rough eight-years for a lot of you.
A friend of mine in grade school used to turn F’s into A’s on his homework. He actually thought it would fool his parents.
Looks like someone tried to turn a 3 into an 8.
Aren’t you the asshat that was crowing about how Scott Brown was going to be slaughtered by the ‘smart’ people of Massachusetts at the polls? How’d that work out for you?
You’re whistling past the graveyard. I wouldn’t predict any single race, but overall, November’s results will determine the next 6 years at least and you won’t like it. You’re going to be relying on your own money for all the little perks your used to getting on my dollar soon.
Might want to be thinking about a career path capable of supporting yourself. Needs to offer enough to both put food on your table, and all the cash Obama and the DNC can scam you out of.
A friend of mine in grade school used to try and turns F’s into A’s on his homework. He actually thought he could fool his parents.
Look’s like someone tried to turn a 3 into an 8.
True or likely true – Yes, Obama has passed his major overhaul of our healthcare system, but he did w/out majority support from the American people. I think this will play a huge part in the Presidential Election of 2012. Our economy is bad and the way our government/President is spending money the economy is looking to get worse. Before long we are going to run out of ink or the money to produce the ink to produce the dollar bills. The bailouts thus far have been a sham and the wool is being pulled over the American people’s eyes. There really is no money for these bailouts – only the appearance of money through the coming raise of our taxes. Problem – American people are not making as much money as they used to and one cannot squeeze juice from a prune! Mike Huckabee is right – President Obama will not be easy to beat. Huckabee, because he is not expecting Obama to be easy to beat, would go into the Presidential Election (if he should decide to run) ahead of the 8-ball because he does not expect an easy fight, but rather one of emmense difficulty, while at the same time not a fight that is insurmountable. I think Mike Huckabee is the only potential Republican Candidate who could beat out the incumbent President Obama in 2012.
I’m asking a few different questions:
1. Is there a candidate out there who holds firm conservative values without wavering? Yep. Huckabee.
2. Is there a conservative candidate who has demonstrated ability to govern effectively even when working with political opponents? Yes. Huckabee again.
3. Is there a conservative Republican candidate who has the charisma and communication skills to wage a strong campaign in 2012–Heck yeah! Mike Huckabee.
I’m with you, T.Miller–I also think Mike Huckabee is the only potential Republican Candidate who could beat out the incumbent President Obama in 2012.
Governor Huckabee is the obvious choice to go against Obama. He is charasmatic, principled and articulate! He has over a decade of experience and, if we would have elected him last time, the country would be in a vastly better state!!!