Seeing Red (Ink)
This is important and very problematic. Withheld receipts primarily consist of federal income and Social Security taxes taken out of employee paychecks. You would not expect that an increase of “only” 3.5% in the average seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (from 6.1% in July-September of 2008 to 9.6% during the most recent quarter) would cause receipts from withholdings to dive by 10%. But they have. I believe this is because:
- Many formerly high earners are earning much less in this dismal economy.
- Those still working are working fewer hours (government reports confirm this).
- Probably less important and not directly related to labor, many investors taking retirement plan distributions are having less money withheld from them because of other financial setbacks.
Both employment itself and the utilization of those currently employed are not expected to pick up significantly any time soon. Given that probability, someone needs to explain to me how Uncle Sam’s collections are going to recover significantly. Though there appear to be differences between how Treasury and CBO define “receipts,” CBO’s June 2009 analysis projects that total receipts will go up by about 10% during fiscal 2010 compared to the almost-final result shown earlier, and by an astonishing 40% to an all-time high of over $2.9 trillion by fiscal 2012. On what basis?
On the spending side, year-to-date outlays of $3.27 billion through August 2009 were a breathtaking 18% higher than the previous fiscal year’s first eleven months. CBO estimates that the difference narrowed slightly during September. Big deal; the increase is by far the largest ever in dollar terms, and on a percentage basis makes the worst years of Republican-controlled Congresses look positively tame.
Even beyond that, the current year’s reported spending spree doesn’t even include the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Beginning with the release of its April statement, Treasury decided that TARP “investments” would be treated on a “net present value” (NPV) basis. Even though the cash had obviously been disbursed, Treasury’s change had the effect of reducing reported outlays through March by about $175 billion.
Since then, the government has “invested” billions more in General Motors and Chrysler, both during and after their respective bankruptcies. Just this month, both GM and Chrysler announced management shuffles in response to their deteriorating marketplace performances. Any accurate NPV accounting should carry these government “investments” at amounts much, much lower than the total of all funds disbursed. Doing so would, and should, add tens of billions to the final reported deficit. One would expect the necessary NPV accounting to be done before the government releases its final results. But this is the Obama administration we’re talking about. Who expects them to in effect admit that these two companies are already teetering?
Having gone through what has to be the worst non-wartime fiscal year in American history, Obama and the geniuses in control of Congress want to impose de facto energy taxes euphemistically referred to as “cap and trade” on almost anything that emits carbon, take over the health care system (because they have done so well with Social Security and Medicare), and impose a frightening array of other tax increases and new taxes that will almost definitely not yield the amounts predicted. All items noted would further pummel an already staggering economy.
We’re surrounded by either fools or knaves.
The support for the “knave” alternative is becoming more compelling. People who are serious about their desire for an economic recovery simply don’t do the things they have done and don’t propose the things they are proposing. What they want are things you would expect from the government of a banana republic, not the supposed leader of the free world.
When is someone going to ask Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, or Harry Reid, the folks who first gave us the POR (Pelosi-Obama-Reid) economy during the summer of last year, why they won’t put a halt to what has brought down the economy, and why they seem so grimly determined to keep it down?
I once thought that politicians were just a little bit ignorant about economics, but this has gone on long enough that I’m now convinced this is being done on purpose. I still cannot understand why.
Why are our leaders working so hard to bankrupt our country? Why are they so determined to drive down our standard of living. Why have they turned against their fellow countrymen?
Is this how we truly want to live?
“We’re surrounded by either fools or knaves”
I vote fools.
Most of the politicians are self-interested, selfish only looking out for number 1; the Democrats want to grow government no matter what the cost & the consequences. They want to control the little people unaware that we the people are their bosses–not the reverse. I fully expect 2010 to be a bloodbath for the Democrats given all of their ideas have made things worse. They cannot blame the Republicans since they have the votes to pass anything they want. We the people have scared the Congressional Democrats given most are up for re-election next year.
Paging Dr. Galt, paging Dr. Galt.
Oh, Yea; More welfare from Obama; And forced, too:
http://blog.heritage.org/2009/10/16/morning-bell-obamacare-puts-you-on-welfare/
the unhappy truths of international capitalism, have something to do with this, and we cannot blame one party as both are governing,likewise the deficit and trade debt grew most during the republican controlled bush years.
Arthur, President Obama has passed a bill–the “stimulus” bill–that spends more money than the previous 43 POTUS COMBINED! More nasty little harpies are going to hatch from the failed Porkulus debacle as it becomes an albatross around Obama’s neck…
Furthermore, Obama cannot complain about the deficit when he himself quadruples it! And this same Porkulus was meant to keep unemployment at 8%. Unemployment is nearly 10% Arthur.
You might want to use another example Arthur.
If you haven’t converted your pesos, er, dollars to gold yet . . . it might be too late.