Sarkozy Could Be Key to Diplomacy with Iran
On June 13, 2008, the EU made a new offer of incentives to Iran as part of its proposal to resolve the current nuclear crisis. According to the latest news, Iran has rejected calls for the suspension of uranium enrichment, which was one of the underlying parts of the offer.
This is a serious setback for the international community and for those who want a negotiated settlement to this crisis. It is time for senior foreign statesmen to get involved directly in diplomatic efforts in order to avert what could be a serious crisis, if not a military confrontation.
With four months to go before the U.S. elections, the Americans cannot be expected to do this job yet, as we are not sure who will be the president and if he will be willing to talk to Iran. If anything, it could be too late by then. The only foreign statesman who currently has the seniority and the credibility in the Middle East to do this job is France’s president, Nicholas Sarkozy.
Sarkozy’s recent trips to North Africa, Lebanon, and Israel and his upcoming trip to Syria have not only given him much credibility; they have also raised his profile in Tehran, both good and bad. For hardliners such as Ahmadinejad, Sarkozy is a friend of Bush who wants to weaken Iran. For moderate conservatives such as Ali Akbar Velayati — Iran’s longest-serving post-revolution foreign minister, serving from 1981 to 1997, and current advisor to the supreme leader — Sarkozy could be Iran’s only hope of averting total isolation and possibly war.
In fact, Velayati saw Sarkozy as Iran’s only hope in the EU as far back as November 2007. Back then, Iran was under pressure from Gordon Brown and Angela Merkel, both of whom Ahmadinejad views as its staunch nemeses due to their calls for increased sanctions against Iran. Sarkozy, on the other hand, tried to reach out to Supreme Leader Khamenei and wanted to prepare a meeting with him. Velayati jumped at the chance.
As Khamenei’s advisor on foreign policy issues, he was to be dispatched to Paris to prepare the ground for the visit. However, as president, Ahmadinejad needed to be informed about this. Instead of working with Velayati, Ahmadinejad first tried to embarrass him by giving him an appointment at midnight, for which Velayati had to wait several more hours because Ahmadinejad was late. Ahmadinejad then went on to torpedo Velayati’s efforts by writing a letter to Sarkozy, in which he called him “young and inexperienced.” Not only was this letter insulting; it was also hypocritical. Ahmadinejad himself is a year younger than Sarkozy. He also has far less experience in domestic and international politics. Nevertheless, Ahmadinejad won as Sarkozy shelved plans to visit Iran.
Delusional. For whatever reason, Iran has been determined to provoke a conflict with the USA ever since 1979. Eventually, America will produce a President with some moral courage and they will get their conflict.
Meir, the Iranian regime played the Europeans for years. Much of that time the Europeans were willing to be played — as long as it looked like they were “standing up to the US” and not caving to the Mullahs. But now they look like Iran’s Euro Saps — a little success for the US has changed perceptions.
Ahmadinejad was previously called Mullah K’s man. Now the puppet has apparently cut his strings. He must have, to be pulling the antics you describe and still be in power. So there is either a seismic shift in power going on in the power structure, or Iran is playing the same “reasonable thug, brutal thug” game they have played since the beginning — with yesterday’s brutal thug now playing the “reasonable thug.”
Just tell them, “The time for talking is over. Either you deliver or we will.” More “engagement” is silly.
So, Iran gives up enrichment–George W Bush wins!
Not gonna happen, is it?
So Iran gives up enrichment, George W wins and Iran goes back to being a third-rate power in a second-rate part of the world.
Not gonna happen, is it?
OK so all of the above, plus America´s undying friendship, plus peace with Israel and $5 for a latte in Starbucks´ in downtown Teheran, plus the world is a safer place, the price of oil comes down, world peace is just around the corner…
Not gonna happen, is it?
Iran has nowhere to go with this but ahead to destruction, or backward into “drinking from the poison cup” again.
Not gonna happen, is it?
Hi hdgreene, I still think there is hope in diplomacy. There are people in Iran who realize that president Ahmadinejad is going too far.
What will come first, the Iranian elections where the people of Iran could elect a moderate willing to engage the West or will the “red line” be crossed with the enrichment process? I can’t help but think we are headed for a major conflict and the current regime in Iran is stoking the flames rather then trying to extinguish them.
Sure Meir is right that “There are people in Iran who realize that president Ahmadinejad is going too far.” But the question is not what normal people believe. What does Khamenei believe? If he really believes the same end days eschatology as his predecessor Khomeini, then all the diplomacy in the world is worthless. It’s like telling the Pope to be Hindu.
“Je vois plus que jamais qu’il ne faut juger de rien sur sa grandeur apparente.” – Voltaire
We should be careful what we assume about Iran, or any country.
Puor bien savoir les choses, il en faut savoir le detail, et comme il est presque infini, nos connaissances sont toujours superficielles et imparfaites.
Unfortunately, what we do know is that the Bush administration cannot be trusted to do what it says. Iraq taught us that lesson. Many experts have long been predicting that Bush would invade Iran before he leaves office. But of course, the Bush administration would never admit to such a thing.
On ne donne rien si liberalement que ses conseils.
But it is the man who follows his own counsel, he’s the one that should lead.
Roger, it is still difficult to work out what the Supreme Leader believes in. He wanes, depending on which ever approach suits him best. This is exactly why I have suggested that Sarkozy meets with him, and once and for all we find out from him what Iran wants. To judge Iran’s status and ambitions by what Ahmadinejad says is inaccurate and misleading. Even people in Iran don’t take him seriously anymore.
Meir,
I am persian an I am not agreed with you. the west experience during last 3 decades shows that Iran will play again. they use europe, russia, chian as a sorf-board for their goals.
you are saying Ahmadi Nejad is not an important person and no need listen to his words, I agree with you and also you can see Ali Larijani looked moderate when he was chief negociator in nuclear issues but in the new position as speaker of parlement he took very extrem position. it means they used gunboat and carrot & srtik diplomacy better can US.
anyway do not think a big change is on the way. the Iranian leaders play with all their card and just they are wondering for G.Bush attack before election or see Mc Cain in power. that is set.
Cyrus
“Unfortunately, what we do know is that the Bush administration cannot be trusted to do what it says. Iraq taught us that lesson.”
A Flat out blatant LIE! Is it witting or a translation error?
PRESIDENT Bush did EXACTLY what he said he would in Iraq. He went in, rousted out Saddam and then hung him by the neck until dead. No lies there.
Where is your lie. Show me. Post the quote and source it.
“I still think there is hope in diplomacy. There are people in Iran who realize that president Ahmadinejad is going too far.”
Yes and if they speak up, they are shot or tortured.
Iran is a theocracy. It’s ran by God ( Allah). He communicates thru guys that hear voices in their head. If that doesn’t lift the hair on your neck, those nutbags want NUCLEAR WEAPONS. How In5an3 is that?
the supreme goatf…er ajatollah khomeini arrived to take over Iran and introduce the islamic republic of iran on board of an air france plane from Paris.Nuff said?
The EU’s soft power has had absolutely no result in changing anything Iran. They have failed and their appeasement will bring death to their Citizens. The US & Israel will once again have to do what is necessary to prevent a 2nd Holacaust. The EU will hide and be the snarkish cowards that they have become.
“Sarkozy could be key to diplomacy with Iran”.
What a laugh. I think this moment was presaged about 30 years ago in the original Star Wars movie: “Help us Obi Wan Kanobi! You’re our only hope!”
What a load of magical thinking (crap). The Muslims are only “negotiating” to cynically buy time to complete their arsenal of genocide. The Europeans are insisting on using “diplomacy” because they have nothing else to bring to bear. America is going along because we’re already doing all the heavy lifting in Afghanistan and Iraq, and our hands are very full. That’s the unvarnished truth of the situation, and the vile Islamic regime will not be dissuaded through words from obtaining their dream of nukes. They must be destroyed. That’s also the unvarnished truth.
The article is a total controversy:
Since khamenei is the big boss 8 as agreed in the article) then how could ahmadinejad dare to interfere with his plans by ruin it for Velayati a close person to Khamenei.
You are mistaking by thinking that the top offical in the regime are devided. Same mistake you did when promoted the so called reformers.
Another point you say
“Tehran and direct meetings with Supreme Leader Khamenei could be one way. A powerful way.”
One way to what?
To stopp the nuclear develoment?
oppression of the iranian people?
transforming ghe theocracy to democracy?
The IR nuclear plans are just one of the problems with this regime and it has many while none of this is going to change as these have been palned for the last 27 years……
you can do better mr.Mir
Meir
You wrote that the leader of Iran is not Ahmadinejad but Khamenei, I agree. But Iranian development of nuclear energy is not a new thing, it is continuation of stuff done under Rafsanjani and under Khatami. During the presidencies of Rafsanjani and Khatami it was Khamenei who was the leader of IRI. Presently when Ahmadinejad is a president Khamenei is also a leader of IRI . It is the pasdaran who has control over nuclear research and it is Khamenei who is the leader of pasdaran and it is Khamenei who knows how much money is allocated to pasdaran and to nuclear research. So if the Khamenei wanted to stop the research he could do it, he controls propaganda in IRI, he controls conservatists and he controls pasdaran. Instead during all these years he has changed his official stand many times and has been playing one western country against the other but the nuclear research and development went on all the time. Now he is telling all and sundry that nuclear research under military control is vital to IRI well being. I doubt that official agreement with France specifying exactly what IRI can and can not regarding nuclear research will be of benefit to Khamenei, and to IRI. If that exact agreement will be agreed upon and signed Khamenei will loose half of the ability to blame western countries for Iran economic woes. It will loose the ability to claim that the people who do not like things in IRi are western agents and/or traitors. Moreover it will be somewhat more difficult to blame USA and Israel for everything bad in Iran. IRI also might lose some of the support and popularity in muslim countries – nuclear Iran and particularly IRI with nuclear weapon showing finger USA is quite popular in the Middle East..
So yes, I think some vague agreement or statement will be probable but nothing more.
As for Sarkozy ……………if one is looking at Sarkozy dealings with Assad one is wondering what the hell Sarkozy is thinking about(if he is thinking at all) , and what does it tell us about his future talks with Iran supreme leader.