Sadr Bites the Hand That Feeds Him
In our last post at ITM we briefly mentioned a statement in which Sadr’s office accused Iran of hosting and assisting al-Qaeda, today I’ll talk about that statement in more detail.
The claim itself is not strange. What’s strange is whom it came from. Sadr was the last voice we’d expect to say such a thing. Accusing Iran of interfering in Iraq’s affairs is one thing, but accusing it of hosting and assisting al-Qeada is a whole new ballgame. It opens the door for speculation and analysis, especially since Sadr only weeks ago returned from a long stay in Iran in which he was a guest of the top leaders of the Islamic Republic. So why make this statement now?
Some say that the many accusations in and outside of Iraq that Sadr is Iran’s man forced his hand in an effort to distance himself from suspicion. But Sadr’s words do not support this theory because, as previously mentioned, he could have just said that Iran is maliciously interfering in Iraq. When the accusation went beyond that to link al-Qaeda with Iran it became a serious claim that put Iran, his ally, in a very embarrassing position. Are we seeing signs of a breakup? If so, is this breakup coming from an emerging conscience or patriotic feelings on Sadr’s part?
In my opinion, patriotic feelings have no role in answering this question. At the same time, there’s more at work here than Sadr’s attempt to distract from his alliance with Iran. A cleric such as Sadr believes in a revolutionary ideology with strictly defined tenets of absolute right and absolute wrong. Patriotic goals represent only a step towards imposing this absolute vision on everyone. Islamists do not believe in a homeland, they believe in a ‘Dar al-Islam’ (House of Islam) that will eventually encompass the whole world.
If we look at the articles written by Mr. Marwani (the consultant at the Cultural Supervision Committee of the Martyr Sadr office), and these are frequently published on the web, we see that his signature is followed by the words “From Baghdad, the occupied capital of the world.” In a way this means that the world, not Iraq alone, is the goal in their ideology and literature, and the “Mowatti’o al-Mahdai” (those who pave the way for the Imam Mahdi) led by Moqtada, will lead the Imam’s army to every point in the world spreading justice.
Then what made Moqtada go in the direction he did?
It was the result of factors that accumulated over time, and matured during his visit to Tehran. Sadr finally realized that his role was only second or third to that of the SIIC of Hakim, or the Dawa Part. A situation that a young revolutionary leader who won all his fame and clout in just a few short years couldn’t tolerate. In those years his name, and his army, rocketed upward in the media headlines and proved a powerful presence on the ground. Realizing that he’s being treated as a #2 made the ambitious, poorly educated youngster lose his balance. And he had little balance to give, compared to the older big-names who have extensive experience in the political world.
The publicity he got and the power he thinks he has put him in a position of accepting nothing less than being #1. This probably explains his attempts to reach out to some Sunni politicians as a more inclusive alternative, he thinks, to what the Dawa or SIIC offer.
The battles for control in the southern provinces and the manner in which smuggling money is being distributed showed Sadr how secondary his role is. Now he knows that his invitation to the political process and acceptance into the UIA was no more than a political lollipop to calm him down, or he’s finally seeing that his movement’s popularity was exploited to win ballots for other UIA members.
Here appear the signs of a rift that will be difficult for Shia leaders to work around, because winning over a man like Sadr with compromises doesn’t seem possible at this stage. His frustration and ambitions will not leave much room for negotiation.
Sadr believes he’s the strongman now, the one who deserves to rule Iraq. At least according to what one hears his followers say in Baghdad. Even though his pretensions to power clearly exaggerate reality, the Sadrists continue to say that they can take over Baghdad in ten hours if ordered to.
Sadr’s overestimation of his own power and popularity is likely to make the situation more complicated. As for Iran, well, Iran doesn’t care much about particular names and faces as long as they’re a part of the chaos.
And this rift will surely add to the chaos Iran desires, even though the accusation of assisting al-Qaeda suggests that the chaos could touch Iran as well. Playing with fire can sometimes get you burned.
Mohammed Fadhil is PJM Baghdad editor; his own blog is Iraq the Model
Given the way his forces splintered while he was in sunny Iran, I’d be amazed if he had the delusions of grandeur you suggest. But …
Is anyone likely to take his Iran-AQ link comments seriously, in the sense that he would be given credit for actually knowing something others don’t?
The fact that they view this murderer and poorly educated man has their leader just shows you that the shia movement would literally destory iraq if it allowed their prospective “strongman” to rule the country.
He may emboldened his counterparts with rhethoric of power and hopes of ruling the country but he will ineveitably destory it. Iraq should not and cannot be left to become a theocracy in any way, shape, or form.
Grand son is a EOD commanding officer somewhere around Baghdad disarming explosives and says much more is going on than his last tour. This has to work this time as those who did not go through WW2 do not have the attention span and take freedom for granted. Our son who spent a lot of time in Iraq doing developing irrigation knows many of your countrmen and thinks highly of them and the ones I have met are fine people.
One I met was a brother Mason and he became a Mason in Iraq. Was worried when we didn’t hear from you so long. John
Mr Hildebrand,
Blessings upon your grandson. It is a good thing to develop all kinds of connections with the good people of Iraq, ie: Masons.
All,
Thank the Most High the political acumen of the murderer Muqtada al Sadr is what it is! Dumb, foolish criminals are the best ones to have.
Salaam eleikum.
Mohammed Fadhil’s analysis is either naive or outright deception. This is one more game Iran’s Mullahs are playing to toy with America. They believe we’re totally gullible fools [and we've gone out of our way to justify this belief]. Persians have been playing these games for thousands of years, and only arrogance and ignorance -racist and supremacist at their core- would permit these “decision makers” to consistently ignore or redefine demonstrably hostile realities on the ground, down to something not requiring response.
For almost 30 years, we’ve rewarded each and every hostile act Iran has directed against the US, blaming some other chimerical “enemy.” Reagan, Carter, Clinton and the permanent foreign policy establishment have consistently misdirected Americans’ attention to believing that each of these Iranian aggressions was a matter of happenstance, accidents, or misunderstandings, or misinterpretations. Our blessed CIA has been wrong on Iran for 60 years, and almost everything else for as long, meanwhile we are bled of resources and murdered Americans [see Nathan Thrall's fine analysis published by GLORIA Center June 07].
This man Sadr needs to be removed from the scene, permanently, and sent to his 72 slave-virgins. Whenever US forces begin to close in on militias and make some positive headway, some State Dept. morons in the Admin will drag out a piece of blatant propaganda like this Fadhil “analysis” to cause the perps to escape, rearm, grow stronger and present a larger more difficult threat a few months hence.
Would it not be delightful to find someone in government with sufficient brain power to understand that if you kill an enemy the first time, you don’t have to face him again and again and again and again…… losing more American dead along the way? mariana
I have the distinct feeling that Mookie’s ego will yet lead him to overplay his hand, perhaps in a reckoning after the current offensive has broken al-Qaeda in Iraq*.
*(At least, I hope it breaks them.)
“Mariana” (above) must be living in a trench of her own if she thinks Mohammed Fadhil is a State Department stooge. I guess they don’t read Iraq the Model that far beneath the ocean surface.
Thank you for this great analysis. You should CC you Blog entries to Michael R. Gordon of the NY Times.
Sadr’s comment doesn’t make any sense to me. I was under the impression that Iran had no love for Al-Qaeda, and was, in fact, competing with them for leadership in the Muslim community. Is that not the case?
Cheers,
AL SADR DAY IS COUNTING DOWN. AN IRAN IS CHANGING ITS STRADEGY,AN WE ARE NO FOOLS, WE CAN SEE THAT.
WHAT IS NEEDED RIGHT NOW IS A BORDER FENCE BETWEEN IRAN AN IRAQ… AS WELL AS BETWEEN SYRIA AN IRAQ. THEN TRAIN THE CUSTOMS AN UPGRADE THIER EQUIPMENT THAT WILL MAKE HARDER FOR THE SUPPLY OF VICIOUS DEADLY EXPLOSIVES FROM COMMING NEAR US THAT ARE RISKING OUR LIVES FOR THE FREEDOM OF THE WORLD. BY HELPING TRAIN THE TIRED IRAQI’S OF POEPLE HELPING AN THEN GIVIN UP… THEY ARE SLOWLY REGAINING THIER CONFIDENCE AN SEEING THAT WE WILL NOT RUN AWAY FROM THEM AN THIER PROBLEM AGAIN. WE WILL FIRST HELP THEM AN THEN SLOWLY ONE STEP AT A TIME START WALKING AWAY. DOP NOT FORGET THAT IT NEEDS TRAINING IN ALOT OF AREAS. WATER,ROADS,DRAINAGE,COUNTERINTELEGENCE, SHIPDOCKING,AIRFORCE&SERVAILANCE KNOWLEDGE, BUYING PRODUCT MADE IN IRAQ LIKE TEXT BOOK, INSTEAD OF BUYING FROM IRAN… LIMIT THE THE COMPETION SO IRAQI DINAR IS USED MORE, NOT IRANIAN MONEY.LET IRAN NO IF THEY WANT IN THEY HAVE TO PLAY BY IRAQI RULES, NOT THIERS…
So Iran’s doorman now bites the hand that feeds him. The more this man says, the less I worry. If this came from some other Iraqi leader it might carry weight, but we all know Sadr doesn’t carry his weight between his ears. Put this together with all the other confused, contradictory, and incoherent statements he’s made over the last few months and you get, huh! In fact the man is consistently confused, contradictory, and incoherent. In fact many of his own followers don’t seem to do much following any more either. Does anyone take this mans pronouncements seriously anymore? If his followers weren’t all so confused to begin with, maybe we could get them to ask for clarification. “Oh great leader could we please ask where you’re going with all this, just asking?” Maybe we should just get the air force to drop a 2000 pound ham on him. Finish him off.
To the Brothers Three, keep safe in these trying times!
One of the key points Mohammed Fadhil points out is Mookie’s self-recognition as a ‘great player’. He has always been the one to boast greatly and that he would be the power to deal with… and when he was first cornered and his organization threatened he whined and sued for peace to save his skin. That got him entree to the political process where, again, he leveraged what little position he had to try and make things worse and make himself be seen as powerful.
He got a disproportionate number of positions for his party, and that was not enough for him so he turned on the insurgency again to break his word. He knows that men of power do not keep their word to lessers. He played that game pretty well, inciting violence and having ‘private talks’ with Sistani which, I suspect, where more Sistani calling him on the carpet to get upbraided than ‘talks’.
The violence business started to go south, however, as Mookie realized that he was not even the ‘big player’ from Iran’s perspective. He was more than willing to use funds from them and build his terror organization, but only so long as he was the ‘big man’. He upped the violence and when AQI did that in Anbar… a funny thing happened. Anbar coalesced after years of work by the MNF and some Iraqi politicians, and AQI started to feel the heat.
Mookie ran from *that* as it showed that the top organization in terms of leadership, outlook and organization was *losing*. He scampered off to Iran, obviously trying to point out that *he* was more important than AQI. He had power! And that power was minimal, limited to withdrawing support from the Government, which he did as he returned.
That did not cause the Government to fall. Even worse is the campaign to pull down insurgents was now getting to *his* organization, and the admitted view by those opposing him that he *was* and *is* secondary.
Now AQI is being *removed* and the hard work to get reliable governance in after they are taken out is being done from tribes and the Awakening movement. But Mookie cannot be ‘Awakened’… he dreams of power. Wants power. He will turn in anyone to save his skin. But that Awakening is coming, and the sunlight of that now reaches into the crypts that hold AQI… and Mookie. Now Mookie must face the fact that it was his FATHER that was respected and he has lived off the leavings of his father’s name. And has dishonored that name by his actions.
Living a lie is difficult for Mookie. He will blame anyone else, sell out anyone else, for his own false claim to fame. And like all these denizens of the crypt of totalitarian power he is amenable to the dawn… and a bit of lead poisoning administered at very high speed. Mookie can run… but he can no longer hide. Keep on talking, Mookie… its the best way to *find you*.
Ole Mookie remains Iran’s stooge and AQ does its heavy lifting. Every wanna be martyr is blowing themselves and who/whatever has the misfortune of being within their proximity to smitherines as they morph into a pink mist. Iran, and its “secret santa,” syria, sit back and provide the supplies. Why? iran wants control of the vast wealth of the near/middle east. Silly syrians believe one of two things- iran will share, or they can end run iran and keep the prize for themselves. All the while the “play misty” for me nut jobs believe not only in the 72 virgins but also that because of their self-destruction, burqua’s r us will soon become the worldwide supplier of women’s fashions. Meanwhile, AQ and mookie take the heat. The kicker is that iran/syria don’t give a rat’s ass about world religious persuasion so long as everbody’s reverence of oil and gas stays. So yes, virginia, the global war on terror is about oil and its control. That is not a bad thing. Democracy and freedom in Iraq are the key elements in ensuring reasonably fair distribution of oil to the rest of the world. Along with that obvious benefit, and perhaps more importantly, is a better future for the people of Iraq.
Quick, perhaps you’re too quick to be impressed. Your not uncommon “impression” needs some more work before it will qualify as accurate analysis. Iran/AQI link has been reported variously by English language media and officials for several weeks, Sadr is just an echo of already public discourse. Furthermore, there’s history to consider. AQ and Iran have worked out “mutual interest” deals concerning Afghanistan and Pakistan, some AQ are reported in hiding or “protective custody” in Iran since 2002, and there is plenty of evidence that AQ and Saddam had, at minimum, made a non-aggression pact dating back to mid-1990′s, when OBL was resident in Sudan. Alliance of convenience and political expediency between Iran and AQ (and AQI)is just more same old, same old. The new ingredient is the info war Iran and AQ have unleashed on the “enemy’s” public as part and parcel of sowing strategic confusion and chaos in the liberal democracies opposing them. As for the eventual settling of their “internal differences”, the Shia Mahdists and the Sunni Salafists have ideological convictions to support the assumption of inevitability of their own triumph over all infidels and apostates – including the apostates and heretics of their opposite Islamist persuasion. “Inshallah” means a lot more than que sera, sera.
I haven’t read or heard about any such link in Western media, nor from any officials. But even if I had, I would probably discount it, as neither has demonstrated any reliable understanding of regional culture. And I’m not sure what any Saddam/AQ link has to do with the proposed Iran/AQ link, as Saddam and Iran didn’t get along so well, either.
Anyway, I could understand naive reasoning for an Iran/AQ alliance to remove the US from the region, but that kind of alliance is easily exploited as their ultimate goals are in direct conflict. What happens when we leave? Both AQ and Iran want dominance in the region. They would both go into such an alliance thinking they were using the other for their own gain. Any concession by either party to seal the alliance would never be fulfilled, as they would know such a concession would weaken their own hand.
No, I still believe any such remarks by Sadr are pure media stunts with absolutely no validity.
I called Moqtada on my improvised cell phone to ask him about his statement. I asked: “Blessings my beloved Moqtada,Fearless young lion of Iraq, why did you say that about our brothers in Iran?”
In no uncertain and unequivocal terms he responded..My little but misgided Christian brother..let me respond with a question :did not your Cain kill his brother Abel? (after walking outside to get better reception, I was in the bathroom at the time.) I said as a matter of fact he did. Moqtada goes on.. “Well during my forty days and nights in the deserts of Iran, I had a revelation..”
Please go on (hoping perhaps he was about to come out of the closet a born again Christian)
” I saw a great host of angels and martyrs all surrounding Allah,all praise due him singing and rejoicing and making much merriment through an eternal day in an eternity of eternities”
I exclaimed Thats wonderful ..then what happened
“I was offered a harp to accompany the singing and dancing in this grand festival..”
Please go on Wise Moqtada..
“I declined and flew back to the desert upon my prayer rug and back to the suffering of my people..”
Why did you refuse Moqtada, you could have stayed there with all the prophets, martyrs and other amenities..?!
(suddenly all of my phone static mysteriously disappeared )there was a long pause..
“Because young grasshopper ..I would rather be a ruler in this hell than a servant in either one of our heavens..:
Oh Moqtada Young and Noble Lion of the desert I said..verily you have grown in wisdom
The conversation then ended. I returned to my living room saddened he had not come out of the closet singing hallelujah!
But I am happy that he did see the light in Iran, praise the Lord!