Poll Reveals Support for Islamism and Its Goals
There’s a lot of interesting material in the Pew Research Center´s latest poll of the Middle East, a survey that focuses on attitudes toward Islamism and revolutionary Islamist groups. The analysis that accompanies the poll, however, is often not very good, so here is mine.
For example, in evaluating attitudes toward Hamas and Hizballah, Pew says that they receive “mixed ratings from Muslim publics … [while] opinions of al-Qaeda and its leader, Osama bin Laden, are consistently negative….”
Really? Well, in Jordan, for example, 55 percent say they like Hezbollah (against 43 percent negative) while 60 percent are favorable (compared to 34 percent negative) toward Hamas. Yet this is even more impressive than the figures indicate. Jordan is a staunchly Sunni country whose government opposes the ambitions of Iran and Syria. Hezbollah is a Shia group which also is an agent of Iran and Syria. For a majority to praise that organization — conscious of strong government disapproval — is phenomenal.
The figures for Hamas can be more easily explained by the Palestinian connection. Yet the difference between the two in terms of public opinion isn’t that great. And it also suggests that support for Fatah and the Palestinian Authority — most of the pro-Hamas people, though not all of them, are making a choice between the nationalist and Islamist forces — is pretty low.
Why do people support these groups? Obviously, one reason is that they fight Israel (a country with which Jordan is at peace), but sympathy for the revolutionary Islamist aspect of Hamas and Hezbollah must be a huge factor here. Indeed, there is not necessarily any conflict between these two aspects. The Islamists are considered to be better fighters than the nationalists, while making war for the next generation is more attractive to those backing Hamas and Hezbollah than is making peace. Finally, let’s not forget that both of these groups are very anti-Western and anti-American.
But now let’s look at al-Qaeda. In Jordan, 34 percent are favorable toward that terrorist group while 62 percent are negative. That outcome, however, contrary to Pew’s spin on the numbers, is not at all encouraging. Remember that al-Qaeda carried out the September 11 attacks. Moreover, it has conducted terrorist attacks in neighboring Iraq and, most important of all, in Jordan itself. The fact that one-third of Jordanians — whose country is generally considered the most pro-Western in the Arab world — like al-Qaeda is chilling indeed. Then, too, this preference cannot be attributed to anti-Israel sentiment.
So one-third of Jordan’s people favor the most extremist terrorist group despite the fact that it has murdered Jordanians, and roughly half or more like revolutionary Islamist organizations that are clients of their own country’s nominally biggest threats. What does that say about the hopes for moderation and stability?
Turning to Egypt, “only” 30 percent like Hezbollah (66 percent don’t like), 49 percent are favorable toward Hamas (48 percent are negative), and 20 percent smile (72 percent frown) at al-Qaeda. This is more encouraging than the figures in Jordan. But remember that not only is Egypt solidly Sunni but the powerful Muslim Brotherhood, the leaders of Islamism in Egypt, don’t like Hezbollah because it is a Shia group. The Egyptian government has accused Hezbollah of trying to foment terrorism in Egypt. The Egyptian government also views Hamas as a threat.
Roughly speaking, one-fifth of Egyptians applaud the most extreme Islamist terrorist group, while around one-third back revolutionary Islamists abroad. This doesn’t tell us what proportion of Egyptians want an Islamist government at home, but it is an indicator.
In Lebanon attitudes are along sectarian lines. While 94 percent of Shia Muslims support Hezbollah (only 5 percent are negative), 84 percent of Sunnis are unfavorable (only 12 percent are positive) toward it. Christians are 87 percent negative (and only 10 percent positive). This shows why Hezbollah cannot just take over Lebanon itself, but of course Lebanon is largely being taken over by Iranian-Syrian power plus their local collaborators, of which Hezbollah is only one of the elements.
What are the Lebanese figures on al-Qaeda? Three percent positive and 94 percent negative! Why? Because the Christians and Sunnis don’t want that kind of regime, while the Shias, who tend to support Hizballah’s Islamism, know that al-Qaeda hates Shias.
Who came up with the notion of moderate Muslims? I have never met one. I have never heard a Muslim proclaim that he was moderate.
There will be moderate Muslims in the future. Just as there were a lot of moderate Nazis in 1945.
If I might steal a cleverness from an acquaintance of mine, we believe in moderate Muslims for the same reason we believe in giant squid: Dead ones turn up every now and then.
I have met many moderate Muslims (did my dissertation research in the Middle East on this topic).
Nontheless, the moderate elements in any society will always be held hostage to the more violent extreme elements.
Think about it, if the tables were turned – you have a family and live in a police state – would you speak out?
Where is the Muslim denunciation of Islamists in non-police states.
It is not prevalent because true followers of Mohammmed believe in the spread of their fanatical, seventh century, mindset by stealth jihad if not violent means.
mjs,
You make a good point. Miriam, what say you?
I am a Jew, Zionist and consider Obama a left wing fascist. I mention all this to avoid be labeled an Islamic apologist. That said I have worked and befriended many Moslems. They don’t condemn extremist Islamists for the same reason we don’t go around condemning Klansmen, the thought that we would have anything in common with those weirdos is absurd. They practice moderation, that is their condemnation of extremism.
BTW, in the middle east one does not give honest answers to pollsters, one gives answers that will prevent you from being killed. Since people fear terrorists more than they do moderates there will be a natural tendency to say that one supports terrorists. After all you can never tell who is listening.
Bob
I think that the survey is rather correct.
In Egypt Muslim Brotherhood is very influential and Egyptians are getting more fundamentalist. Same situation exists in Jordan.
I think that your explanation that people are afraid of terrorists so their answers are invalid would have been correct if the poll was done in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran or Iraq. However, for example, in Egypt and Jordan people are more afraid of police/secret police then of terrorists.
One more thing – I think it is true that in ME one often do not give truthful answers, but I think that in majority of cases the answers one gives to the pollsters are the answers one think pollsters (or aliens) would like to hear.
“left wing fascist”
Do you know what any of those words actually mean? No, really.
Actually, lots of people do.
“Actually, lots of people do”
If Jonah’s your source, then you’re off to a bad start. Maybe you should check out some actual history books
Why does the article end with the statement that the radical Islamist side is winning in all 4 countries. Assuming the polls are correct the people in Turkey are overwhelmingly against all three terrorist groups and against Islamic punishments. Even the supposedly “horrifying” result of 74 – 11 modernists (how is it horrifying that the country prefers modernists almost 7:1 over Islamists?) looks good.
Unless there is something I am missing it looks like Turkey is following the path that we should most like to see. The government leans towards support of the enemy but the population seems to be keeping an Islamic identity in the same way that France and Germany have Christian identies.
This is news? The more radical Islam becomes, the more the dhimmis in the West capitulate and cower. If these cave-dwelling barbarians succeed in taking over the world, we will have no one to blame but ourselves.
I agree that the numbers are disturbing, but my ‘read’ of what Mr. Rubin summarized about Turkish public attitudes contradicts his conclusion. Perhaps the stats from Turkey are recorded incorrectly here?
Larry,
I agree it was confusing. I took him to mean that, in spite of the wishes of its population, the current regime is Islamist. A correlation with Iran perhaps? Hopefully he will post a comment clearing this up.
Yes, that makes sense, Wayne. And Barry would be right in that it demonstrates what a thorough coup Erdogan has pulled off, in a sequence of events over years that has emasculated the Turkish military and courts.
Hopefully, Turkey and Iran will go at each other for dominance before Turkey becomes a real threat to the West.
The Middle East just isn’t worth it. If we had built all of the nuclear reactors that we wanted back in the 1970s and if we had fully developed all of our oil and gas resources both off our coasts and in Alaska, we would be energy independent by now. But no, thanks to those “wonderful” evironmentalists, we are still dealing with Muslim dictators and monarchs. Swell.
Tell me the truth, if it wasn’t for oil, would we even care what was happening in the Middle East? And if we were not in the Middle East at all (because there’s nothing there but oil), do you think people like bin Laden would have had as much ammunition in convincing other people in those countries that we were the “Great Satan?” Even with our involvement in Afghanistan, bin Laden’s big beef with us was our staying in Saudi Arabia, not Afghanistan. This part of the world has been nothing but a giant pain in the neck since we’ve been there. The best thing we could do is to tell the lot of them “good-bye” and let them go back to killing themselves over their religion.
Obama and his cadre of eco-nazis are systematically shutting down or denying access to our own God-given natural sources of energy. Jihadists are bad, but at the present time I have more aversion to the eco-nazis than the terrorists. The eco-nazis are a far greater threat to our national security and economic recovery than the jihadists. Did you catch the recent article my Michelle Malkin where she quotes Janet Napolitano (God help us all) describing the need to promote “environmental justice?”
I swear progressives were all repeatedly dropped on their heads as babies and again as teenagers. These idiots are KILLING us.
Here’s your problem:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_consumption
And don’t give me crap about it being a wiki link – it’s just a list of countries by oil consumption (let’s leave natural gas and coal out of it for now – although they’re substitutes to some extent).
The US uses (roughly) a quarter of the world’s oil production. You can build a wall and the bad guys will still be swimming in money. Unless you put up trade barriers, you’ll still be paying a price for oil that’s determined (mostly) by global supply and demand.
How do you solve that?
Youtube Video. Horrifying and Evil
Quran School نحوه تدریس مسلمانان در آفریقا
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Jwii8QihT0&feature=player_embedded
G-D help these innocent, defenseless children.
We in the west is the greatest supporter of terrorism, We are funding them “Petro Dollar” remember. I’d say “drill baby drill” that way, we are not buying their oil anymore we’re selling them. We hit the terrorism where it hurt most.
Hmmmm. Maybe it has to do with something in the Koran.
The Insanity Goes On: America and Terrorism
Einstein’s now-famous theory of insanity, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, is in process of being proven as valid as his equally-famous theory of relativity and the leaders of Western civilization are its most proficient proponents.
America’s and the West’s policy toward Islamic terrorism and terrorists, if indeed it can seriously be considered policy, is fundamentally, and insanely, flawed and reactionary: We wait, they do something, we react. It can be reduced in equivalency to the advice many practical parents give to their sons when they are the victims of school bullies: If he hits you, hit him back or else he will continue to hit you, or worse.
Other parents instruct their kidlets to go tell a teacher or tell an administrator or tell it on some mountain, all of which tactics invariably result in Little Johnny being ostracized, labeled a snitch, being bloodied even more by the bully’s buddies and/or by the bully himself off schoolgrounds in a dark alley.
The chief problem for America and the West with employing either of those approaches is that America and the West aren’t being threatened by some snotnosed kid out to make a schoolyard name for himself or merely acting out some psychological issues. Radical Islamists are certainly out to make a name for themselves and are acting out of a deep-seated and perverted visceral fury, intermixed with a disturbed religious fervor, but their aims go far beyond those of a bully.
Their intent is not to bloody noses but to maim and murder Americans and Western Europeans, to destroy our basic institutions and the societies in which those Americans and Western Europeans live, and to establish a new, world, Islamic-sharia-Koranic order. And there is no one we can turn to to ”tell on” them.
Yet, as seen in the case of the recent Stockholm bombing and the multiple attempts to execute mass mayhem in the United States, from the “Underwear Bomber” last Christmas to the Portland “Holiday Bomber” last week, we patiently wait and wait and wait.
We seem to be waiting for another 9/11, or worse . . .
(Read more at http://www.genelalor.com/blog1/?p=3070)
There have been several polls of attitudes in the Middle East in recent years. What consistently comes through is that those nations whose governments are friendliest to us have the most hostile populations and those nations whose governments hate us have populations that are most favorable to us. What this really tells us is that these people are angry and hate their rulers. So whoever is friends with their rulers they view as the enemy and whoever is an enemy of their rulers, they view more positively.
Bob from Virginia makes a very good point: in authoritarian societies, especially ones as ridden by tribalism as those in the Middle East, opinion polls must be taken with a grain of salt. Still, the theory that the Islamists are a fringe group of Muslims is not supported by these numbers, or for that matter by almost all other available evidence.
Those who insist that they are merely a tiny minority of Muslims mostly don’t want to face the implications of reality. I can hardly blame them, but it’s not helpful or productive.
Indonesia, lebanon and turkey are hardly authoritarian.
That’s an interesting survey. I found the “support” for hamas/hezbollah/al-quaeda less interesting than the closer-to-home questions about harsh punishments, support for democracy, gender segregation and concern about extremism.
Those figures on hard punishments are really disturbing. I’d be curious to see similar questions asked in various parts of the west, though. Obviously “stoning” is a bit culture-specific – that would seem like an odd question to most australians, but I think there’s more grass-roots support for disproportionate punishments than most government would like to see published
The problem I see with polling “support” for extremist groups is working out why they say it. If the overwhelming majority of muslims in those countries are concerned about muslim extremism, how do they square that with claiming to support groups that we associate with muslim extremism? What is it that THEY see in those groups? I understand (to some extent) the hamas/hezbollah thing – those aren’t just violent freaks, they’re also groups that provide charitable services and political representation. But AQ? What on earth do they think AQ is? Are they getting the same news that we are about the links between attacks on civilians and al quaeda? And why is there such a stark difference between support for AQ and support for bin laden? That’s odd, to say the least. It makes me wonder if they see AQ as something quite different to what we see in it.
I don’t think the survey goes far enough on the detail. I’d like to know why these groups have support.
Looking at a country like indonesia, it also seems to me that the survey results are going to be HIGHLY dependent on where the survey is taken. That’s a diverse country, with a lot of localized interests. Do the survey in bali and you’ll get a completely different result to jakarta or aceh. Do the survey in malaysia and you’ll get completely different results depending on how close you are to an urban center. The same goes for iran (although they’re not in the survey).
And why does 10% of egypt’s christian population support hamas? What’s THAT about? There’s something strange going on there, and the survey doesn’t explain it.
I think the survey raises a lot of interesting questions, but I really wouldn’t be jumping to any conclusions on the basis of a couple of the results in isolation.
I was looking for sone songs to sing with my Pre K class for the holidays. I looked up a popular website called “Nancymedia.com”. Under the title Holiday Winter Songs it listed the following song titles: Ramadan, Our Thanksgiving Day, Kwanzaa, The Colors of Winter,Celebrating Eid, Gung Hay Fat Choy and Eight Days of Light. Not one mention of Christmas.This is the agenda being fed to kids in our country from the time they’re three years old.Talk aboout exclusion!
That site is a french web design company. Are you sure you were looking in the right place?
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/poll-reveals-support-for-islamism-and-its-goals/
Results of the Pew Research Center Poll for Egypt
Support for
Hezbolla 39%
Hamaz 49%
Al Qaeda 20%
Roughly speaking, one-fifth of Egyptians applaud the most extreme Islamist terrorist group, while around one-third back revolutionary Islamists abroad. This doesn’t tell us what proportion of Egyptians want an Islamist government at home, but it is an indicator. Egypt solidly Sunni but the powerful Muslim Brotherhood, the leaders of Islamism in Egypt, don’t like Hezbollah because it is a Shia group.
Islamism versus “modernizers”. A large proportions of people deny that such a struggle even exists! Only 31 percent in Egypt acknowledge that there is a struggle. Those who said that such a struggle does exist took the following sides: Egypt, 59 pro-islamist -27 modernizers.
Finally there is the attitude toward Islamic punishments. In Egypt, 82 percent want stoning for those who commit adultery; 77 percent would like to see whippings and hands cut off for robbery; and 84 percent favor the death penalty for any Muslim who changes his religion.