Poll Analysis: Paul Ryan Pick a Big Winner
The selection of Paul Ryan to be Mitt Romney’s running mate has electrified conservatives and appears to have boosted Romney both nationally and in key battleground states. While Nate Silver of Real Clear Politics has estimated that the Ryan pick has been worth only two points so far to Romney, I believe it currently could be worth more than that.
It is likely too early to measure the full Ryan impact. The Gallup poll is a seven-day sample; some of the days in its latest daily average include pre-Ryan selection days. There are not yet any national surveys by the once-a-month pollsters conducted entirely after Ryan was named.
The two tracking polls are in the market every night with 500 interviews each; both Gallup and Rasmussen have shown a several-point swing to Romney in the last 10-14 days. Rasmussen has moved from Obama +2 to Romney +1. Gallup has moved from Obama +4 to Romney +2. Because Gallup is a seven-day sample, its daily average generally changes less rapidly than Rasmussen.
Both polls have been fairly stable for the last few months, with Romney’s and Obama’s numbers in the 45-50% range, so the shift in both surveys is likely not happenstance. Some of the shift occurred after the Ryan pick and some before –possibly blowback from the “Romney caused my wife to die of cancer” ad by the Obama Super PAC.
Nate Silver’s model produces a two- to three-point lead for Obama at the moment. The tracking polls suggest otherwise.
For a few weeks, a series of national polls by once-a-month pollsters — Fox, Reuters, Pew, IBD, and CNN — suggested that Obama was pulling away. The Obama lead was 7-10 points in each survey. But each of these polls included samples with far more Democrats than Republicans. Given that so far this year most every survey shows Democrats giving 90% support for Obama and Republicans giving 90% support for Romney, oversampling one side or the other by five or ten points turns out to be the entire story in a poll. Some pollsters, such as Rasmussen, attempt to keep the party shares among those interviewed each night roughly consistent with shares for the two parties and for independents, based on support for candidates in prior elections and other measures.
If you get a sample in a survey that tells the pollster it supported Obama by 14% in 2008 when he won nationally by 7%, or that it supported Obama by 13% in Florida when he won the state by 3%, you likely have too many Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents in that sample. Silver has admitted that some polls — such as Pew, Reuters, and PPP — have had large slants towards the Democrats this year (three to four points).
The election will be decided, of course, in the Electoral College and not by the national popular vote, which has incorrectly picked the winner four times. (In 1824, due to a multiple-candidate race with no majority of electors won by any of the candidates, the race was thrown to the U.S. House, where John Quincy Adams prevailed.)
In the last two weeks, at least one poll has shown Romney ahead in Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, and now Wisconsin. Adding the Electoral College votes from these states to the states where Romney is assumed to have locked up the win or to have a safe lead, the Romney total reaches 291. Of course, there have been other polls in some of these states that have been less favorable to Romney. Obama has led in polls in Nevada and New Hampshire by mid-single digits.
A week ago, the RealClearPolitics.com average for Ohio — a state that has been part of every Republican presidential election victory since the party was founded — showed about a five-point lead for Obama, close to the same margin Obama achieved in 2008. This deficit was a reason why many thought Ohio Republican Senator Rob Portman would be the logical choice to run with Romney. But in the last two days, we’ve seen three shifting Ohio polls: Rasmussen shows a tie, PPP has a three-point lead for Obama, and Purple Strategies gives a two-point lead to Romney. The state now appears to be a toss-up, or a very small Obama lead. The Purple Strategies poll of the battleground states indicates the race is also very close in Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. Romney leads in all but Colorado in this collection of polls.
Silver’s model today gives Obama a 70% chance of victory. This seems too high, though in fairness, his latest runs were done before the Purple Strategies polls were released. The national tracking polls and the state polls released this week do not provide much evidence of why Obama would be a more than two-to-one favorite.
The Intrade betting line has tightened, with Obama now a four-to-three favorite (a 14% edge), down from almost five-to-three a week ago (a 22% edge).
The best case for why Obama remains a slight favorite is that Romney needs to win more of the toss-up states to get to 270. Obama’s base is larger than Romney’s. If Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota remain solid for Obama, he has 237 Electoral College votes, not far from the 270 needed. Romney seems to be solid in states with 191 Electoral College votes.
A win in either Ohio or Florida would almost assure Obama’s re-election. Romney needs to win North Carolina (where he is ahead), Florida, Ohio, and Virginia (all of which are about even or slight Obama leads), and then one more — Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin are all possibilities. Nevada seems more of a stretch. An earlier PPP poll in Wisconsin suggested that Ryan on the ticket cut Obama’s lead from 6% to 1%. No Republican has won Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan in 1984, and Obama had a big win there in 2008 (14%). However, the GOP has come very close on several occasions and as recently as 2000 and 2004, and of course the GOP won both the Senate and governor races in 2010 and the recall election earlier this year.
If the candidates finish up even in the popular vote, it is likely that Obama will win the Electoral College race. It seems unlikely that Romney will run stronger in the battleground states than nationally, and therefore win enough of the close state races to get to 270. Romney might need a two- to three-point popular vote win to string together the states he needs. In 2004, Bush won by 2.4%, and carried 31 states with 286 Electoral College votes. Those states today have 6 more Electoral College votes, but New Mexico’s five are almost certainly lost to Romney. Bush won Ohio and Nevada by 2%, Florida and Colorado by 5%, and Iowa by less than 1%. Bush won Virginia and North Carolina more decisively (8% and 12%), but both states had large shifts for Obama in 2008 due to much higher African American voter participation. Colorado and Nevada have also become less GOP-friendly the last few years, with growing Hispanic voter participation.
This year, only the GOP gets a bump for naming its vice president. The Democrats get a pair of chains. Each party will get a bump at its convention, though the GOP has more room to grow, since Romney and Ryan really get to introduce themselves to some people for the first time at this event.
The race could look a lot different when the debates roll around.
The Ryan pick is already proving to be a huge success when compared to Biden. Biden has been making one misstep after another.
http://uselections2012blog.blogspot.ca/
Reality Check: Is Rep. Paul Ryan Actually A Big Spender? His “Principle” Problem
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKJaVJpJ-FI&feature=plcp
I thought it was OK to ‘evolve’, or is that something only Democrats are allowed to do?
Only Democrats have the luxury of ‘evolving’. Republicans can only flip-flop.
/sarc
Great news!
All of the polls are skewed toward obama, including rasmussen.
People aren’t going to tell pollsters how much they detest the Liar in Chief.
Think about it. Who is going to lie to a pollster that they intend to vote for Romney when they won’t? Nobody. But lot’s of people will lie the other way.
I agree with you, and I think it’s going to be a huge factor. Most people are afraid to put Republican bumper stickers on their cars or lawn signs in their yards- now more than ever. After all, someone just got gunned down for their conservative views yesterday. That fear will translate into polling, even though it’s anonymous, especially when the poll is associated with a news group. But not in the privacy of the ballot box.
Swing-stater here. We receive polling/campaign calls every. single. day. (We’ve blocked so many of these calls the number blocking feature no longer works.)
My point? There are countless conservatives out there who, like us, never pick up a pollster’s call. IMHO the current polls are woefully distorted, but I take comfort in the possibility of a blowout in November. Unexpectedly.
“Unexpectedly”
Ha!! Yup, another swing state voter here (VA)… I’m well-informed and up-to-date electronically connected (wide-band internet, VOIP, multiple cell phone and virtual phone numbers) and…alas….no land line. So no pollster is going to call me because I’m also on the do-not-call list, like many savvy modern (and conservative) voters. Pollsters other than Rassmussen are only attempting to use their “findings” in an effort to influence others. Not to report. Just like “reporters” any more…
I think his appeal to Millennials is going to be significant. I’m looking forward to seeing what the Young Republicans are up to once college gets underway!
Ron Paul: A notable omission from the list of speakers at the 2012 RNC ELECTIONS 2012 AUGUST 12, 2012 BY: BRIAN COLE
http://www.examiner.com/article/ron-paul-a-notable-omission-from-the-list-of-speakers-at-the-2012-rnc
Probably because nobody cares.
Too bad Etch-a-sketch already threw the Ryan plan under the bus. This guys ego is as big as Obama’s
So does Obama’s Office of the Director of Progressive Media and Online Response pay you in cash or food stamps?
I think giving mature, intelligent voters a clear choice is wonderful and Mr. Romney did just that. He is leaving it up to us to decide what kind of future we want.
Mr. Romney didn’t become a business whiz for nothing, he is a true leader and knows how to pick a leader and how to lead.
As for me, the choice is indeed clear. I am a fiscal conservative. I am terrified by government overreach and power. I voted for Obama for many of the reasons others did in 2008 and have been alarmed ever since.
Guess you know who I am voting for.
Bush – 1,300 convictions;
Clinton – 1,000 convictions;
Obama – Zero attempts.
We have had 16 years of Federal prosecutions of investment malfeasance in two different administrations and two different political parties numbering in thousands of cases. Now, we have four years of no prosecutions whatsoever.
Is this true? Now that I think about it, I did see an article in the WSJ last week noting that criminal charges based on Sarbanes Oxley don’t exist. This goes to show that the widespread belief that Wall Street bankers are all Republicans is a myth. In the arrangements of crony capitalism, they should all be Democrats. Looking at the 2008 contributions from the Street seemed to indicate that. But financial industry support for the socialists has been slipping of late, so non-enforcement is a way to shore that up.
Not that Eric Holder would corrupt and politicize Justice.
And another thing: shouldn’t Mitt put this in his stump speech? There are so many things not in his stump speech.
Yes. I think so anyway, especially as Corrupt Obama is absolutely refusing to allow Corzine to be prosecuted. Obama says he is the defender of Medicare but steals over 700 billion from it and says he is for the people against the greedy wall street yet doesn’t prosecute a single one of them versus Clinton and Bush both going after thousands of them.
Obama is the most two-faced man to ever walk the planet.
Corzine skates.
I (almost) couldn’t believe it.
I wonder if that decision will be revisited under the Romney Administration.
You are aware that the Tea Party has started a program of lying to pollesters?
The object is to use the polls to keep the Donks fat, dumb and happy all the way to the voting booth. The pundits are calling a close election, without going out on a limb and defining close. The hardcore for both sides see a landslide.
Close is within 1% of the popular vote 20 EV’s in the electoral college.
A solid win is 5 and 40.
A mandate is 10 and 100.
How do those numbers sound as a metric?
I ask that because as an engineering student I 4.0 ‘d my Stats courses. As a grad student I help with SAP, the ‘official’ US gubermint Stastical Analysis Package. I mention this because Statistics was a way of calculating ramdom effects in a physical world. As A professor once said; “There is nothing random about humans!” Do they still teach that?
Intrade does a better job. RCP AVERAGES POLLS. Anybody that knows anything about statistics knows that you cannot “average” a poll and have it remain valid.
Pollsters are the 21st century version of snake oil salesmen.
Statisical analysis was not one of my strong suits in school, but I I learned enough to know when you average polls as does RCP you only magnify the errors in each poll used in the average.
I wonder just how many poll participants claim to support Obama just to avoid the ringing cry of racist.
If you know anything about markets, you know InTrade is utterly meaningless with the low volume of contracts offered now. It is only when thousands of contracts are offered or bid at each price point that it may be said to have some value.
I hope that you are right. What I see and do is read online newspapers across the country, from Maine to California. I read the comment on articles about the election. I’m seeing 3/4 in favor of Romney. There seems to be a lot of anger towards Obama and I believe it will translate into votes. And I just heard that Hillary turned Obama down 2 weeks ago to take Biben spot on the ticket. I think the internal polling numbers for Obama must be bad.
Great kid! Don’t get cocky.1
1. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0nyOyrprIs
Go GUYS GO, I’m getting tired of sitting on the sidelines.
Well, when even the Guardian has an article out titled “Democrat’s Nerves Start to Show,” you know something good is happening.
Don’t sit on the sidelines, Glass my brother! Get into it! Next month my lovely daughter and I are heading down to Philadelphia with the Republican Jewish Coalition to try and sway some votes over to Romney & Ryan. (Well, she is also hoping to meet some guys.) Surely you can find a group in your state that needs volunteers for a phone bank or a neighborhood canvass. Maybe you have a Tea Party organization that has big plans; become part of them. There is no reason to sit this one out.
These polls seem to be suspect. Especially since they don’t seem to measure Ob ama’s high negatives among people or reflect or predict the enthusiasm we have seen lately for Romney-Ryan. If you can’t see into what the poll is actually measuring or how it measures how can you know what it is actually saying.
Polls did not reflect the 2010 victories for Repubs, did not see Scott Walker winning, have not shown the kind of voter anger evident in the Chick-fil-a protests and have not reflected how even the Jewish vote (considered a Democratic automatic) has led to such victories as Alan West in Florida and Bob Turner in Anythony Weiner’s old seat.
There is clearly discontent among voters and yet these polls seem to say It is Always Sunny In Obamaland. Show me a poll that says voters are physically sick of Obama but they are leaning to voting towards him and why and I’ll buy it more easily.
Remember the 1980 election? The polls were close until the very end, then Reagan beat Carter in a near-landslide. It’s tough for people to say they’re going to toss an incumbent POTUS no matter how bad he is doing.
Maybe I should remove the qualifier “near” – Reagan won by just under 10% of the popular vote (with 3d party candidate John Anderson getting ~7%) but the electoral vote was 489-49.
The only poll I would trust is Rassmussen. The others all over sample Democraps to disspirit Republicans. But, I don’t see Obama-Biden bumper stickers all over the place. I don’t hear the excitement over O’Dismal this time. There is excitement over Romney after his pick of Paul Ryan. There’s a certain energy on the Repub. side, that simply is not there for the Dems. With that said, Romney needs at least a 5 point margin in any state to overcome voter fraud. Don’t you wonder how many voter registrations are being handed out to the “young” illegal aliens picking up their “papers”?
It is rare for vice-presidential nominees to have any measurable effect on a presidential election. AFAIK, the most they have ever done is contribute to carrying their own state, as Lyndon Johnson did in 1960 (and that decided the 1960 election’s outcome).
Could someone inform us whether ANY vice-presidential nominee since the Civil WAr has affected a presidential election’s outcome? Have any besides LBJ had any measurable effect? Please identify which elections if I’m wrong.
We can scrutinize polls but from what I’m seeing, Ryan is anywhere from slightly up to slightly down to pretty much, “no bump” as polls like to put it. But polls are consistently agreeing that he’s largely unknown (which of course, like polls themself, change daily).
But looking at polls and Ryan, it’s important to look at polls from people that do know about Ryan’s budget. And this election is indeed about Ryan’s budget.
Catholics aren’t happy with Ryan. Catholic nuns, priests, bishops, and friars have called the Ryan budget “immoral,” a “severe failure,” and the “height of hypocrisy.” That’s some pretty strong wording.
I wouldn’t be too optimistic about the general public either. Based on the several polls in June(Gallop, PEW, PPP, etc), people in general weren’t too thrilled about it. Now it’s pretty much in their faces. I would expect those on Medicare or SSI would think twice before pulling a lever that offers them a lower paying coupon and hands SSI over to Wallstreet. I can’t see millions being helped through AKA to vote to end their health care. And then there’s the millions of middle class workers that aren’t real thrilled at tax increases for them (and yes, The Tax Policy Center has pretty much confirmed this) while folks like Romney will pay less than 1%.
You see, here’s the thing. People may rally behind someone or some policies, until you hit them in their wallets. Even union folks can scream “buy American” until they see those China products much cheaper. The folks that simply despise a black man in the White House may want him out with their every fiber UNTIL it affects their wallet. So all of these cuts sound good on paper as long as you keep your hands off a given person’s Medicare, or Social Security, or whatever it is that hits them financially. And I seriously doubt that the millions of people depending on Pell grants to help with the school bills are going to be thrilled with the Ryan budget. Much like their money, they’re kinda partial to their children as well.
Catholics aren’t happy with Ryan? What source do you base this on? Ryan IS a Catholic. Obama is currently at war with Catholics over Obamacare/birth control kerfluffle. Where do you get your info?
“Catholics aren’t happy with Ryan. Catholic nuns, priests, bishops, and friars have called the Ryan budget “immoral,” a “severe failure,” and the “height of hypocrisy.” That’s some pretty strong wording.”
As a Catholic myself, “immoral”, “severe failure” & “height of hypocrisy” are terms I usually reserve for the Church (& Democrats) especially when I hear Cardinal Dolan invited the “Aborter-in-Chief” to be guest of honor at the Al Smith Dinner this year, even after the free birth control controversy. Ah, what’s a million abortions a year among pals anyway? As for those “nuns, priests, bishops and friars,” they seem to be a tad hypocritical themselves & must still be drinking the Democrat Kool-Aid (as you are) about budget cuts which don’t exist (Hint: the budget INCREASES every year, BUT at a slower rate under the Ryan plan). BTW, every Catholic in my rather large coast to coast Irish family is thrilled with the Ryan choice & will be voting for R & R because of the 2nd R…that he’s Irish Catholic is a nice bonus. As for those who depend on OUR taxes to get thru THEIR lives, they might want to try another option. If you’re so “partial to your children,” pay for them yourself. OUR taxes might not always be so available. If Obama’s re-elected, I can practically guarantee it.
Sadly, the Church’s leftists thought they could marry Christianity to Marxism. All you get in the end is the theology of Jeremiah Wright and the politics of Hugo Chavez. “The poor” are not served but serve as their vehicle to absolute political power.
“I’m fairly certain that neither Jesus nor his rabbinic forebears, when speaking of giving, meant some obligation to the state. You tithe the priest, not the taxman.” —Dr. Charles Krauthammer
Come on, do you really think we are that selfish and stupid? Do we not have examples in Europe of where we are headed if we continue our addiction to bloated government largesse? You are underestimating the will of Ryan/Romney to tell us plainly to our faces what we already know.
Christian charity does not mean hiring politicians to steal on your behalf. It means giving generously of ones own free will. And on that score I think you will find conservatives regularly show up liberals as the grandstanding hypocrites that they are.
Paul Ryan voted for TARP, the GM and Chrysler bailout, NDAA, for making the PATRIOT Act permanent, and expanded militarism among other things. The CBO said the Ryan budget MIGHT have gotten the deficit under control by 2040 but that it would most likely add ~4 trillion. Ryan is not a conservative, he’s an advocate of the warfare state. Romney, instead of picking someone who would appeal to independents and advocates of limited government, he picked someone who only appeals to people already supporting him.
This is ridiculous. I can’t even tell the difference between republicans and democrats unless they happen to mention abortion or gay marriage, two things the federal government shouldn’t even get involved with to begin with!
Pardon my rudeness, but I feel a need to voice a couple areas of disagreement.
First, intrade really shouldn’t be treated as a predictive political measurement. Intrade is a reactive measurement, its margins changes mostly in response to polling, and as such is only about as accurate as the polling. A good example of this would be the Ohio Republican primary. Intrade initially predicted that Romney would win this primary, only for intrade to change its prediction based off exit polling and early returns. As a result, intrade ended up with the incorrect prediction right up until all the votes were almost counted, which is hardly predictive behavior.
Second, statistically you should assume that the winner of the popular vote will also get the electoral college vote. The elections you cited prior to the 1800′s each carried their own unique circumstance that make them difficult to apply to modern elections. The election of Rutherford B. Hayes for example, was wrought with fraud and both sides were actively trying to steel the election afterward. It is quite possible that without the fraud and without the poaching of electors, the popular and electoral results may have actually lined up.
Even the 2000 election is not without its own little caveats. Calling Florida early for Gore likely badly hurt Bush’s performance out west. Without that early call the popular vote, “may,” have ended up looking more like the electoral college vote.
Even if you accept all these elections as being statistically valid, the chances are still overwhelming that the winner of the popular vote will end up winning the Electoral vote. So, I do not believe its appropriate to assume Romney must win by over two percent to win the electoral college vote.
For further thoughts on this, I’d recommend reading the following article by Charlie Cook.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/columns/cook-report/the-cook-report-skip-electoral-college-math-20120628
Calling FL early for Gore caused everyone in the Panhandle to go home. The Panhandle is in the Central Time Zone. Not only did the media call it for Gore, but they said the polls were closed. Those errors (which may have been deliberate), cost Bush between 10,000 – 14,000 votes because the Panhandle is home to Navy and Air Force personnel who usually vote for Republicans and also home to Southern Dems, who traditionally vote Republican.
Additionally, Clinton ordered voting booths removed from Navy ships and then inexplicably ordered the ships out on maneuvers several days before the election in an attempt to prevent a large military contingent from voting.
The Republican base is energized and can’t wait to vote. It is giving money, time, and all sorts of volunteer efforts to get Romney and Ryan elected. The enthusiasm is certainly there, just as it was in 2010, when the Democrats got killed in the elections. Time to make it happen again in 2012. We’re on our way.
16. Ronald J. Ward is parroting the party line. Yes voters vote their wallet. those wallets are approximately 40% lighter under 0bumbler. Mr. Ward slides right by that critical fact. Discretionary income has declined because of 0bumblers anti-business and inflationary practices;
http://www.enotes.com/discretionary-income-reference/discretionary-income
The above URL is a good starting point to discretionary income and why it is important to a service economy, such as America has.
The left is trapped in a logical fallacy. The left wants government control of as much of America as they can grab. The problem with that is gubermint doesn’t produce anything of value. All a gubermint can do is protect. Society (citizens) produce value. Any gubermints sole purpose of existing is to protect the citizens producing value. By seeking to control those citizens government attacks them. That is why socialism ALWAYS fails.
There is a line past which protection becomes oppression. Democrats are far over that line.
The voters will correct them in 80 days.
Nate Silver is far more concerned with fighting for his professional reputation than giving us the straight scoop. Paul Ryan is not Sarah Palin.
My dream is that the impending election purges not only our corrupt, demagogic executive leadership, but also announces the beginning of an era of accountability for the MSM —-and their wacky pollsters.
So you don’t have any demonstrable metric that supports your position, but it feeeeeels like the truth.
good enough for me!
The game changer was not the Ryan pick as significant a choice as that is; it was the “You didn’t build that,” comment that is the game changer. In the final analysis Obama proved with one simple four words what his vision of “Hope and Change” really is about. He further amplified this vision by saying he wanted to bailout all other industries. I don’t mean to diminish the choice of Paul Ryan or the fact that Romney signaled he is taking our most serious entitlement problems head on. But, if you look to the ultimate game changer, and want to see its affect on the public, go home tonight and tell your wife who has slaved in the kitchen making you a nice dinner, that her meatballs taste like paper. The same is true of employees, when they have worked for hours to solve a problem and the best thing you can say is “you didn’t fix it,” you are not likely to get the most favorable reply.
It clearly shows that Obama is incapable of understanding the free enterprise system and the word meritocracy is not in his vocabulary. Most of us knew that by June of 2008.
Reality Check: RNC Rules Committee Can’t Follow Their Own Rules
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3OZkBiqg4Y&feature=plcp
Are Romney and Obama the same on most issues? Try, ALL ISSUES!
Comparing side by side the words and political stances of Republican and Democratic presidential candidates Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama. Includes topics like universal health care, gun rights, energy, NDAA, the Patriot Act, Iran, sanctions, economic stimulus. bank and auto bailouts, civil rights, TARP, the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, campaign donations, and more.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljzKR9mePiY
Actually for two days in a row rasmussen ( conservative poller! even) has President Obama up two points ,a four point swing toward the President since Ryan .