A poll taken Sunday, June 13th, showed Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown in a statistical tie with their respective opponents, Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman. (Full results are here[pdf].)
The poll, conducted via telephone for PJ Media by CrossTarget, was of 600 likely California voters, and has a margin of error of 4%. The CrossTarget poll was an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) poll, using the same technology and methods as the polls CrossTarget conducted for PJM in the Massachusetts election in January, in which PJM/CrossTarget was one of the first to predict Scott Brown’s election.
In the California gubernatorial election, Brown led Whitman by about 3%, with a 4% margin of error.
Brown 46.4%Whitman 43.3%Undecided 10.3%
In the senatorial race, Fiorina actually led Boxer by 0.5%, well within the margin of error but showing that Fiorina is a very serious challenger.
Boxer 46.5%Fiorina 47.0%Undecided 6.5%
In a surprise result, party affiliation reported by respondents showed a 3% majority for the GOP; these results were adjusted to match the usual proportion of a 7% Democrat majority. If party identification has really shifted by 10% toward the GOP in California, this would have dramatic implications for the election in California and for the United States as a whole.
Details of Sunday’s PJM/CrossTarget poll follow:
1. Jerry Brown 46.4%2. Meg Whitman 43.3%3. Undecided 10.3%
1. Barbara Boxer 46.5%2. Carly Fiorina 47.0%3. Undecided 6.5%
1. Definitely will vote 95.5%2. Might or might not vote 3.2%3. Probably won’t vote 1.3%