PJM/CrossTarget Poll: Boxer, Brown in Trouble in CA
A poll taken Sunday, June 13th, showed Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and California Attorney General Jerry Brown in a statistical tie with their respective opponents, Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman. (Full results are here[pdf].)
The poll, conducted via telephone for Pajamas Media by CrossTarget, was of 600 likely California voters, and has a margin of error of 4%. The CrossTarget poll was an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) poll, using the same technology and methods as the polls CrossTarget conducted for PJM in the Massachusetts election in January, in which PJM/CrossTarget was one of the first to predict Scott Brown’s election.
In the California gubernatorial election, Brown led Whitman by about 3%, with a 4% margin of error.
Brown 46.4%Whitman 43.3%Undecided 10.3%
In the senatorial race, Fiorina actually led Boxer by 0.5%, well within the margin of error but showing that Fiorina is a very serious challenger.
Boxer 46.5%Fiorina 47.0%Undecided 6.5%
In a surprise result, party affiliation reported by respondents showed a 3% majority for the GOP; these results were adjusted to match the usual proportion of a 7% Democrat majority. If party identification has really shifted by 10% toward the GOP in California, this would have dramatic implications for the election in California and for the United States as a whole.
Details of Sunday’s PJM/CrossTarget poll follow:
Good news indeed. One can only hope the trend gets stronger. F
I wonder how this squares with Rasmussen’s findings Friday last of Box-a-Rocks Boxer leading Fiorina by 5 points?
..I would be suspicious of your poll because of the supposed migration of people to the GOP. But things are early and I believe that when Whitman and Fiorina get on track and roll out the array of material they have against these has-been losers Brown and Boxer, people will want to go with two business executives that politicians who have helped to preside over this states descent into the septic tank.
Personally, I cannot see Boxer holding her own against Carly in a debate — if they have any. But no one ever went broke underestimating the stupidity of the liberal mind, to borrow a phrase.
I will believe those numbers if I see them in a Field Poll, not before.
Fair enough and I would like to see a couple other polls on this race as well to back this up but they do bring up a good point. CrossTarget was one of the first polls to find the MA Senate race competitive.
I’m not satisfied that this robo-poll has enough validity. The methodology is new and not refined yet, as witnessed by the inaccurate polls CrossTarget did on the Mass. Senate race earlier this year. That said, I do think there is a significant swing both in identifying Republicans and more importantly, in disaffected Democrats.
If the GOP is at or near parity in California (a swing of nearly plus-10), then every state race in the country, save perhaps Vermont, is in play this year. Practically, what this means is that Wisconsin and Washington should be considered toss-ups, if not “lean Republican” at this point. It also means an epic wipeout for the 48 Congresscritters in districts carried by McCain.
You really ought to set up a dummy left-wing organization and a dummy right-wing organization, and use them to sponsor the same type of polls from a large number of polling organizations. You then publish the extent to which these different groups of specialists seem to tailor their results to the politics of their clients. Now, well before the election, is the time to do this — because people taking polls closer to the actual vote would naturally be more cautious about neglecting accuracy in an attempt to please …
I suspect that the overall polling will continue to trend toward the Republican candidates. It would not surprise me if in another few weeks Rasmussen reports a minimum three point lead that will hold up all the way to November. California’s citizens should realize that this election may be the last chance to save their state. They are running out of viable options. If nothing else, the public unions must be brought under control.
Thanks for providing this poll! I am sure all we will hear out of the liberal media is talk about how Carly can’t win.
As much as I like the results, that third question is so far our there, it taints the results. We know that 90+% will not vote in the November elections. Do people really lie that much to a robot? Or will the best intentions just fade away in a few months.
Eric, I had the same immediate reaction, but remember that this is a sample already pre-selected as “likely voters”.
Also, let’s not forget the important ingredient of enthusiasm…Whitman and Fiorina have it ALL (and for the most part…along the Tea Partiers who will ultimately back them compared to Brown and Boxer) and the Dems have zilch…well, except for the unions and illegals.
Bottomline…most likely to vote? It will be the GOP and those who don’t want to see Brown Version 2.0 .
boxer is on fire, again leading the way, reshaping politics as we know it with
her 24/7 townhall/total excitement campaign. by the way,her eco-swat “no fossle fuels” team was on the ground in gulf within hours. she’s obviously going to overwhelm any and all comers.
Huh?
Californians: Cancel ALL print media and stop watching TV until the 2010 election is over. Let politicians spend their propaganda money needlessly. You CAN take back your state and country, one vote and one action at a time.
A question on methodology:
Did the questions swap the order of the candidates’ names? If not, then the ordering preference given the above questions would give the Democrats an advantage of one or two percentage points (or more!)
Another question is the pre-screen for “likely voters.” If set too tight by the pollsters, that would account for the heavy Republican showing amongst self-identified heavy voters in question #3.
Still, intuitively, this will be a strong election for the Republicans and that supports the overall conclusion.
“boxer is on fire, again leading the way, reshaping politics as we know it with
her 24/7 townhall/total excitement campaign. by the way,her eco-swat “no fossle fuels” team was on the ground in gulf within hours. she’s obviously going to overwhelm any and all comers.”
If boxer is on fire, somebody better let the fire department know so she could be put out. She’s been nothing but an embarrassment to this State. She fails to represent her people on anything.
We need to have a new poll, one which asks which one of the Three Stooges box is most like. Check Curly, Moe or Larry. I bet Curly would be the clear winner.
Right now she’s so deep in Obama’s pocket that she can tell him when its time for him to go to the bathroom.
Where is she on Cap and Trade, Obama’s foreign policy, Obama’s coddling of BP, the Interior’s Dept.’s war on Western farmers. You’ll see that none of that will get mentioned. You want to see how well she backs up the State, just ride from LA to Sacramento and count the number of burned up orchards. What has she done to promote jobs for this State? Nothing!
I’m really not thrilled by any of them. It’s man child Moonbeam Brown or Meg the Internet auction house shill. The Marin County hot tub babe or her failed Silicon Valley proxy CEO. Democrat or republican, it makes no difference who the tokens are at the party:it’ll still take 20 years to execute baby killers, and toys will still be banned from happy meals to prevent obesity. Makes you wonder how you can fight and win a war when they’re afraid of a Big Mac. But I suppose it is entertaining getting to watch the cat fights over hair styles and overpriced hair dressers.
Whitman…an “internet auction house shill”??? As in you must be “tainted” for building a multi-billion dollar corporation and making a fortune because your stock options rose dramatically as the company succeeded???
An Fiorina…a “failed Silicaon Valley proxy CEO”??? As in, it was because of YOUR hard decision against entrenched family interests that HP bought Compaq and became the largest personal computer seller in the world???
Face it…you don’t know what it takes to be successful. Just stay home with your paranoia and negativity and DON’T VOTE! Leave the hard decisions to those who know how to make them!
Okay, enough of this denigration of eBay. Let’s say that it is the world’s largest yard sale. It makes a freaking HUGE amount of money! 50,000 folks or more make a good living from it. I do not care if it is all schlock. I don’t care if it is pure horse manure. It takes GENIUS to make that kind of money from schlock or sh**!
That it is schlock is a Feature, not a Bug! You can make money selling high-end, Rodeo Drive stuff, but you have to be really good to sell schlock! Get your nose out of the air! It’s not the quality of the goods. It’s the quantity of the money.
During his failed 1976 run run for POTUS Brown proclaimed his belief that there would soon be a voter backlash against expansive and costly government policies. “This is an era of limits, and we had all better get used to it,” he declared. Brown was viewed as more socially liberal than most candidates.
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I wonder if he’ll be reminded of those words — words that fit the times like no other.
We can only hope Boxer (“call me Senator”) gets her walking papers.
And in my home state the ‘thick as a brick’ Patty Murray needs to find the unemployment line.
I actually believe this poll is correct. Primaries were on Tuesday. Friday polls showed a big gap. Over the weekend, folks had time to get info.
I suspect the choices seem very stark to them. Thus, huge move away from Dems.
California massive fiscal crisis? Definitely gonna vote! For whom, has-beens or biz execs? No question.
I think Laura Ingram lampoons Boxer like no other I’ve ever heard. I was literally laughing so hard I couldn’t drink my coffee during any of this. The first minute or so is the best part.
Nothing like a little levity!
Throw out the box!
The races are too close, unleash the illegals.
There is worse trouble for Brown than is realized yet. The Public Employee Unions have started the attack ads against Meg Whitman. The charge…she didnt vote in elections while she was running E-Bay! Whitman’s reply…she’s going to cut spending, cut taxes and concentrate on reviving California’s economy. Which is a more compelling message when at least a fifth of the state is unemployed or under-employed? The libs think they’ll be able to do their traditional strategy of blanketing the airwaves early with union-paid slam ads and free biased media and run the negatives of the Repubs up while the Republican Party starves our candidates for money as they ship cash out of the state for more favored races. Not this time. BTW, Boxer is missing in action. Something is wrong with the usually voluble Babs, she’s not even doing her usual puff-piece interviews with tame liberal reporters. Her and her out-of-date hairstyle are toast.
There is something that most are not taking into consideration. There is an initiative on the ballot in Cal to legalize marijuana. This will have the effect of bringing a lot of young people into this election. Many college students and potheads are going to be voting for the first time and the idea that they might vote GOP is ridiculous. They will not be identifies as likely voters either. I lived in Cal for many years and I wish them the best, but I just don’t see Carly or Meg winning in a year in which legal pot is on the ballot.
Could be that just as many come out to vote AGAINST it! And really, there aren’t as many college kids who are potheads as you might think. I’d also be inclined to think that those who ARE “potheads” and would like to see it pass…will not vte because they are “apathetic”, forgot what day to vote or mail in their ballot, or aren’t even registered! Right?
And then again…there may be many people like me who are voting FOR the initiative AND for Whitman and Fiorina…
I do hope that you are right, and were I still a cal resident, would vote the same as you. It just seems to me that the Dims are smart enough to realize that getting out the youth vote, in this year, is their best shot at maintaining their advantage in Nat’l politics. The people against it mostly already vote, and relying on apathy or memory loss as a way to keep potheads home, is just stereotyping. When it matters to them, most potheads in my acquaintance, manage just fine. Misunderestimating the opposition is foolish, Just ask our last President.
Calm down, folks. It’s California. Even if they lay off the bong pipes and the group hugs through election day, they will still have the gerrymandered state government to slog through. They won’t make the slog. Everything dies. It’s just that when something as beautiful and young as California goes down it is very distressing, like losing a child instead of a grandparent. But accept it: California is finished. And as goes California….
The news just hit the media, Barbara Boxer just got a run in her pantyhose. She is calling for a full congressional investigation of the pantyhose industry. Word was that she was given a brand new pair with the promise that it would be guaranteed as long as she is in office. Now that she has got a new pair and a guarantee, we need to give her a hand. Throw out the box!