PJ Media Poll: Obama Losing Some Minorities, Independents
Yesterday, Roger L. Simon summarized the results of a PJ Media-sponsored poll which compared the four contending Republican candidates in head-to-head matchups with Barack Obama. (Topline results here.) The survey of 800 registered voters, conducted by the firm CrossTarget, also looked at potential matchups of various candidates who could be late entrants into the race — or consensus choices at a deadlocked convention — versus President Obama. The alternative candidates included Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.
The poll, conducted February 21 and 22, produced generally more favorable numbers for the GOP candidates than some other surveys conducted contemporaneously.
An examination of the crosstabs (see below) indicates that an equal number of those participating in the survey identified as Democrats and Republicans. In surveys that have produced the most favorable numbers for President Obama, the number of Democrats has exceeded the number of Republicans, sometimes by ratios of four to three.
The racial/ethnic makeup of the survey: 70% white, 11% African American, 11% Hispanic, and 8% other. The GOP candidate always won the white vote and always lost the votes of every other group in the survey.
In 2008, national exit poll results indicated that John McCain won with whites by 12% (55% to 43%), but lost badly among African Americans (95% to 4%), Hispanics (68% to 31%), and Asian Americans, also by two to one. In that year, whites made up about 74% of the vote, African Americans about 13%, Hispanics about 9%, and all others 4%.
In 2010, the Republicans won big gains in Congress, improving their vote share among all groups but particularly among white voters: whites picked GOP candidates for Congress by 23% (61% to 38%) according to exit polls.
The new survey indicates that GOP candidates are underperforming compared to the party’s strong 2010 level among white voters, but doing far better than in 2008 among minority voters (see below).
The GOP vote share among African American voters ranges from 14% for Mitt Romney to 23% for Condi Rice. The recent high vote share in the African American community for a GOP presidential candidate went to George W. Bush in 2004, with 11%. Given an overall margin of error for the entire survey of plus or minus 3.46%, the margin of error for a subgroup in the survey such as African Americans or Hispanics (fewer than 100 surveyed in each case) is much larger. If the African American vote share turns out again to be 13% and not 11%, and Obama’s share of this vote among African Americans is 10-15% higher than suggested by this survey, the overall results would be significantly more favorable for Barack Obama.
The story is the same among Hispanics, where Romney, Santorum, and Paul lose to Obama by roughly three to two, and the other candidates by closer to two to one.
Among white voters, Santorum scores the best, winning about three-fifths of the white vote, and Condi Rice does almost as well. Some of the GOP candidates that were tested and not presently in the race — Paul Ryan and Mitch Daniels — barely win a plurality among white voters, suggesting they are far less well-known than the other named candidates. There are also more undecided voters in matchups involving Republican candidates who are not in the race, and a higher share of undecided voters among all groups besides African Americans.
The bad news for Republicans is that Obama wins a higher share of Republican voters than the GOP candidate does among Democratic voters for every GOP candidate tested.
Only Condi Rice wins about the same share of Democrats as she loses among Republicans. These results mirror the 2008 numbers, when there were more GOP defectors to Obama than there were Democrats who shifted to McCain (even accounting for “blue dogs” in the South, who remain registered Democrats but consistently vote Republican at the presidential level).
The best news for Republicans is that GOP candidates poll well among independent voters, now almost a third of the electorate (30% in the CrossTarget survey). Romney, Santorum, Paul, Christie, and Rice all win among independents (Rice and Christie most decisively), and Gingrich, Ryan, Daniels, and Jeb Bush break even with Obama in this voter group. Obama won among independents in 2008, and independents are expected to be the key to victory in many of the toss-up states this time around.
In general, Condoleezza Rice shows the most consistent appeal among all groups, though she is the longest of shots to be the nominee given her own disinterest in running and the circumstances that would need to occur to allow a non-competing candidate to emerge at a deadlocked convention. Among the four candidates in the race, Santorum runs a bit ahead of Romney, and Paul and then Gingrich are slightly further back in matchups with Obama.
Crosstab 4X14: Republicans underperforming within their own party and breakdown of independent vote.
Crosstab head-to-head (minority groups).
LUCY WAS RIGHT – ‘CHARLIE BROWN’ OBAMA IS WISHY-WASHY!
Polls Polls Polls and more polls. We are either going to win this fighting on principle or we won’t. What good does it do us as a country to poll well if it means backing candidates that are extreme abortionists, in favor of “illegal immigration, the nanny state, out of control government, global warming fanatics, obama care supporters and shredding the US constitution. Sooner or later the voters of America will either get right on these issues or we go down the same tubes with Greece and similar countries who have followed these policies. Polling is not the truth. Polling is not principle. Polling is not the best way to make decisions. I was always taught to do the right thing regardless of what other people are doing. I am not going to surrender my free will to some pollster or anyone else.
Amen
When did making abortion illegal became a hallmark of small govt? I think you should get out of other’s bodies.
Become
Spoken like a REAL Liberal.
To a Real Conservative, the Fetus is a Separate Individual guaranteed by the U.S. constitution the Protection of NOT being deprived of Life or Liberty without Due Process. A contract with a Doctor does not constitute Due Process and therefore is a Violation of the Constitution.
Only a Liberal believes that the Fetus is Extended Tissue of the Mother (host)
ONLY A LIBERAL, BLAH BLAH BLAH… Listen up, if you care one wit about freedom, which you most assuredly do not, then you would stop demanding the expansion of govt to take care of your pet issues. Since when was a fetus a person defined by the constitution? A fetus has no rights, a fetus is a fetus.
As a TPP and constitutional conservative, I was keen on Santorum until I realized one very important thing about him in the last debate. He has a lot of good conservative principles and such, and he sees what is wrong in many respects, with our country and DC. However, he does not offer REAL answers, ideas, solutions. For example, on the issue of the labor market and employees of businesses (owned by MNC’s) being outsourced to workers in foreign lands: he says he will “fix” that. There are only so many things the POTUS can do alone. He can not make the business decisions for the MNC’s. That is a decision for the CEO’s. Nor can he single-handedly change NAFTA or NATO. No self-respecting conservative should be giving cheap shot nickel and dime credits in an attempt to make up the difference.
Now I’m back to Newt. He would at least know where to start. I can see Santorum actually CALLING Newt for his guidance. If you can too, then that should tell you something.
Its funny how people delude themselves into thinking they are “real constitutionalis” but then support every candidate that is against every part of the constitution that doesn’t fit into their whack religio magic doctrine a la Ricky Santorum. When did this man even purport to be a constitutionalist? Here is a religio nut who wants to lord over every sap getting it on in the bedroom and is so afraid of the free choices people might make; screw him!
We are a long way, yet, from having the “fat lady” sing. Rice would be good as either a Pres or VP candidate. Santorum and Romney seem to be the favorites, but the Party has been playing “Whack-a-Mole” for a year now. That trend seems to be continuing.
I don’t see much use in national polls.
I would like to see polls of likely voters in battle ground states like OH, FL, PA, VA, and a few outliers like WI, MI and NJ that are demorat but went GOP last time. And maybe one or two states that should be GOP but went demorat last time like WV(manchin) & CO.
There are really only 15 or less states that will call this election. NY,CA,AL, MA, etc are not in play. I would not waste time and money polling there.
Obama’s problem is going to be participation. My wife is a college professor. I can’t see her or any of her colleagues pulling the lever for a Republican. I can see them abstaining, especially the Jewish ones..
You may be right LEO.
I think you are right and I think the GOP should focus on demoralizing the strong Democrat voter and persuade them not to bother on Nov 6th.
The other significant demographic I see sitting this out are the under 30s. Just like the Jews, they may not pull the elephant lever, but they will probably not bother to vote at all.
my wife voted for the first time ever for Obama. She has promised not to vote for him again but complains ad nauseum about not being able to accept the Republicans, any of them. Come a certain Tuesday in November she might wake up and find all her tires are flat, including the spare. Lucky for her I can pump them up later, after 7:00 pm, that is.
The GOP can still win in November…if they have the gonads to…all they have to do is vet Obama…his childhood in Indonesia at an Islamic school, where only citizens of that country were allowed to attend; his phoney social security number and questionable birth certificate; ask about showing his college grades; his senior thesis; his passport records; look into his relationship with the Chicago gang, especially Rezko.
Obama’s persona would crumble. The election would be OVER. This guy is a complete phoney whose past the media is playing hide and seek with.
Does the GOP have the nerve to hold this press conference???
Barry’s losing minorities? He’s pandering as fast as he can!
Well, I think this wasn’t a good line from Obama. After all he knows just how easy it is to make them and what the consequences are: http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/Latest-News-Wires/2012/0224/Gingrich-pledges-2.50-gas-Obama-it-s-easy-to-make-phony-promises
Shall we say a tad hypocritical?
And at the end of the day, most people will return to where they are most comfortable and familiar, the election will hinge on turnout, blacks will vote overwhelmingly for Obama, Hispanics to a lesser degree no matter the challenger, and about ten states will decide the election. Collectively, the demographic of women is the hardest to predict.
And all of this talk about Iran, energy policy, contraception, abortion, loopholes, Afghanistan, gun control, healthcare, and policy change will go to the wind and the most important elements of the election will be:
Jobs, entitlements and freebies, race, and the price of a gallon of gasoline.
I’m afraid most Americans have grown that shallow, uninterested, apathetic, and/or fickle. For those of us more involved, I think I could say with certainty at least 95% of us have pretty much made up our minds and nothing is going to change that. That would include virtually everybody that posts at PJMedia. The differences in philosophy could hardly be more obvious, and they are almost diametrically opposed.
The GOP has gone through a lot of “grass is greener” cycles this election. Cain, Bachman, and Perry all had a lot of hype – then they were vetted and discarded. I fear this is also the case with Condie Rice. Her polling results here are most likely due to good name recognition and her not having been vetted. If she were to enter the race and be subjected to attack ads, she would drop. The GOP has not found an inspirational candidate around which to rally.
As far as determining which candidate is better agains’t Obozo these polls are USELESS!
That’s right USELESS!
What they tell me is that Obama is MORE beatable than Jimmy Carter.
How do I know this?
Obama ranks 44 to 48 percent vs. a Republican Candidate.
Now let’s look at Carter…
January 10, 1980 Gallup Poll
Carter 63%
Reagan 32%
Simple Math Applied – 63 is Greater Than 48 (by about 15 points)
41 (the worst Republican) is Greater than 32 by 9 points.
So Obama is lower than Carter by 15 points and the Republicans are better than Reagan by 9 points and what is it we have to worry about again?
dead democrat voters. they don’t respond to polls, but they always show on election day.
Carter enjoyed a surge in popularity in the immediate aftermath of the hostage-taking in Tehran. That surge also eliminated a significant threat from Ted Kennedy. It began fading in the middle of the summer of 1980. Reagan’s gains all occurred from about early July on.
Don’t know how much one can deduce from a poll in February but it should be pointed out that 25 million+ less white voters voted – along with 5 million less black voters – 3 million + less Hispanic voters – and 1 million + less Asian voters.
Combine that with 20 million less women vs. 15 million less men who voted in 2010 vs 2008 and I say that the social issues around birth control and immigration will have profound effect on any comparisons to 2010 voting. Both bases will be voting and I suspect the ones who sat out 2010 will not be the majority who were very unhappy with President Obama.
Here is what you can deduce. Obama has lost ground with every voting demographic, whether he carried it or not, compared to his performance in 2008. Any Republican does better with black voters than John Kerry did in 2004 and there is no reason to assume that a high black turnout will change that. Further it suggests that turnout among blacks may well be at or below 2004 levels.
Other polling suggests that the under 30 turnout will both be lower and Obama will enjoy a far smaller winning percentage.
His coalition has been reassembled, it is weaker, less motivated, and less supportive of his candidacy than in 2008.
Actually polling of both parties say the base are energized while it’s always the fight for the what I call uninformed or uninterested who generally make their decisions based on media impressions. Obama is currently winning in the social marketing space by wide wide margins – actually not close. However that in the young voters and they generally don’t show up no matter what.
This election was supposed to be about two things – the economy and if it’s getting better and Obama. It’s now expanded into social issues where Republicans have overreached and will have difficulty with the Hispanic vote on immigration policies and also the women’s vote regarding birth control. Of course we need to know who the Republican Candidate is and for the Conservatives sake it better be Mitt Romney or else the Republican party may split in two or disappear like the Know Nothing party that attacked Catholics when the Know Nothing Party was a power.
First off, Republicans HAVE NOT overreached.
George Steponallof us started this whole thing and Obama picked it up after the ABC Serve.
The Republicans Don’t want to talk about Social Issues, unfortunatly the debates are all moderated by Obama Agents (The MSM) and therefore the subject is brought up regardless of the desires of Republicans.
FIGURE IT OUT!
Republicans have not only overreached, they have jumped overboard the ship of sanity and only a shrewd and courageous Washington outsider such as Newt Gingrich can save the party. Mitt Romney, for all practical purposes, is a liberal; and when he is not a liberal he is a moderate; and when he is not a moderate he is a “business savvy man who turned bain capital around; and when he is not that he is… fill in the blank: he is a pathological liar who will say anything. Santorum is a religio nut, goody two shoes school boy afraid of sexual intercourse.Ron Paul is sincere and consistent but when every other thing out of your mouth sounds like a tin foil hat conspiracy what is the good in being sincere and consistent? I mean i like his foreign policy positions sometimes, and he was a vet, but come on! That only leaves Newt! Whoop de whoop whoop de whoop whoop! 2012!!
What the hell is a “minority” anyway?
I’m sick and tired of seeing people treated as if their membership in an arbitrary grouping based upon skin color, ancestry, or some other superficial criteria is pre-eminent when these say nothing about their individual character or beliefs.
If an easily discerned group of people do tend to vote alike, it is due to having shared beliefs, not simply because they can be grouped together. Groups who do have shared beliefs are going to have different beliefs depending upon the character of that group and the people who comprise it.
As a Tea Party member and sometime Republican, I’m a member of a definite minority in this country in that we are not 50% + 1 of the population. We may be a plurality, or a near-plurality, but we are not a majority. If we were, Obama would not be president. People like me have definite opinions about Obama. He isn’t at risk of losing us, he lost us at hello.
At this point, I’d vote for ANYBODY over Obama. I’m not crazy about Romney, but if he does get the nomination I would take him over Obama in a second. I think it’s good that the Republicans are in a tough primary battle right now, because it is forcing all of the candidates to prove how CONSERVATIVE they are, NOT how liberal. This is a good thing, so even though there is a lot of fighting right now, whoever gets the nomination is going to have to prove how conservative they really are in order to get the Tea Party vote. And let’s not forget, if we manage to get a strong number of conservatives in both the House and the Senate, it will go a long way into forcing whoever gets into the White House that we will be following a conservative agenda, NOT a liberal one.
Guys, check out this nut here, this guy will apologize for everything President Obama does: http://pleasecutthecrap.com/
I was looking to get peoples’ thoughts on this.
http://pleasecutthecrap.com
Does your candidate support the UN ITU take over of the Internet?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204792404577229074023195322.html
CFRB comparison of Republican budget plans. Graphical comparison on page 5.
http://crfb.org/sites/default/files/primary_numbers.pdf
16. Real Conservative – I want to sue the owner of that blog for the time wasted reading it. Unless he is on lithium or has been lobotomized, smoking the hopium pipe until his frontal lobes have melted and dribbled out of his ears is the only explanation for that diatribe of hopey changey drivel.
It’d scary that there are people out there who are so divorced from reality.
“Progressivism/Socialism” ALWAYS ends in economic collapse and poverty once you run out of other peoples money.
I wonder if he even realises Greece exists?
I predict he will be living under a bridge or become a serf in a McGalug if Obama is re-elected and finishes the job of turning the United States into a destitute third world shithole.
Right! It’s like this man can do no wrong in milt shooks eyes.
Obama will get 95% of the Black vote..you can thank the racist tea party fueled by the GOP for that…And you can also thank the stupid BLack conservatives that remain silent while the GOP is hurling racism all over the place…Republicans have also lost ground with Hispanics….just ask some republican Hispanics , they are not happy with the immigration laws that republican are offering..So until the GOP learns to stop being the racist party of the country , they will never get minority support..