PJ Media Poll: Obama Losing Some Minorities, Independents
The numbers show both positives and negatives for Republican candidates.
February 23, 2012 - 12:00 am
The story is the same among Hispanics, where Romney, Santorum, and Paul lose to Obama by roughly three to two, and the other candidates by closer to two to one.
Among white voters, Santorum scores the best, winning about three-fifths of the white vote, and Condi Rice does almost as well. Some of the GOP candidates that were tested and not presently in the race — Paul Ryan and Mitch Daniels — barely win a plurality among white voters, suggesting they are far less well-known than the other named candidates. There are also more undecided voters in matchups involving Republican candidates who are not in the race, and a higher share of undecided voters among all groups besides African Americans.
The bad news for Republicans is that Obama wins a higher share of Republican voters than the GOP candidate does among Democratic voters for every GOP candidate tested.
Only Condi Rice wins about the same share of Democrats as she loses among Republicans. These results mirror the 2008 numbers, when there were more GOP defectors to Obama than there were Democrats who shifted to McCain (even accounting for “blue dogs” in the South, who remain registered Democrats but consistently vote Republican at the presidential level).
The best news for Republicans is that GOP candidates poll well among independent voters, now almost a third of the electorate (30% in the CrossTarget survey). Romney, Santorum, Paul, Christie, and Rice all win among independents (Rice and Christie most decisively), and Gingrich, Ryan, Daniels, and Jeb Bush break even with Obama in this voter group. Obama won among independents in 2008, and independents are expected to be the key to victory in many of the toss-up states this time around.
In general, Condoleezza Rice shows the most consistent appeal among all groups, though she is the longest of shots to be the nominee given her own disinterest in running and the circumstances that would need to occur to allow a non-competing candidate to emerge at a deadlocked convention. Among the four candidates in the race, Santorum runs a bit ahead of Romney, and Paul and then Gingrich are slightly further back in matchups with Obama.
Crosstab 4X14: Republicans underperforming within their own party and breakdown of independent vote.
Crosstab head-to-head (minority groups).