One Decent Jobs Report Doesn’t ‘Fix’ Things
There are two reasons why President Obama rushed to the microphone on Friday shortly after the government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released relatively good news (by recent standards) that the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3% in January, while the economy added 243,000 seasonally adjusted jobs.
The first was to beat up on “Congress” for not yet extending to December 31 the payroll tax cut currently set to expire at the end of this month. He won’t say so, but Obama’s complaint with “Congress” is really with Harry Reid and the Democrat-controlled Senate. The place where congresspersons work, i.e., the House of Representatives led by Speaker John Boehner, passed a 12-month extension in mid-December, but backed down after Reid insisted on the Senate’s two-month version.
Obama’s second motivation was to try to make the country forget his February 2009 promise that “if I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.” ABC’s pathetic “Fact Check” is trying to claim that Obama was only referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program and the nation’s housing situation, but not to the economy as whole.
Nice try, guys. Not even Obama believes that. Last week, the Republican National Committee distracted itself from what it seems to believe is its primary mission, i.e., sealing the GOP nomination for Mitt Romney (never mind that the only candidate polling ahead of Obama in the general election when this column was prepared was Rick Santorum), long enough to remind everyone of Obama’s promise. In reaction, the president’s people surely put that 2009 statement on the agenda for his Super Bowl Sunday interview with Matt Lauer, who recalled it in the context of the economy as a whole (take that, Fact Check). Obama, as expected, told Lauer that “I deserve a second term, but we’re not done.” We sure aren’t.
On the jobs front, January was the best month in the past nine, following eight which the press would have considered more than enough justification for unfettered gloom and doom in a conservative or Republican administration with such a high accompanying unemployment rate. The monthly average of 80,000 jobs seen during the first four of those eight months was woefully weak. Given how many Americans are unemployed, under-employed, and discouraged, the 170,000-per-month average during the four which followed really wasn’t that much better.
Obviously, one month like January doesn’t signal a genuine jobs recovery, but it’s a start — and to be clear, the Heritage Foundation’s point that a truly recovering economy would be adding about 350,000 seasonally adjusted jobs per month is well taken. For context, the economy under Ronald Reagan added an average of over 250,000 seasonally adjusted jobs per month during the first 2-1/2 years after its related recession ended, the population-adjusted equivalent of 350,000 per month today. The private-sector component of that population-adjusted performance is over 330,000. The analogous Obama administration averages: 55,000 overall and 75,000 in the private sector.
One favorable development from Friday’s report is that skeptics finally decided to start looking at the raw (i.e., not seasonally adjusted) jobs numbers instead of automatically buying into the government’s seasonally adjusted results as the starting point for getting to the gospel truth.
It’s about time. Someone besides yours truly needs to start making up for the almost scandalous degree to which the press completely ignores the raw data. I’m convinced that some media members responsible for covering the economy and business are oblivious to the significance, and in certain cases even the existence, of the raw data. Many, if not most, don’t seem to realize that the raw numbers form the basis for what goes into the government’s seasonal adjustment machine.
Recently, when I complained to a business reporter about the press’s failure to even recognize the raw data, and that they frequently fail to tell readers, listeners, and viewers that the seasonally adjusted numbers are, well, seasonally adjusted, he wrote back that “the Labor Department considers the seasonally adjusted number(s) to be much more reflective of what’s actually going on in the economy. If you don’t agree, you should complain to them. In fact, I think they consider the seasonally adjusted numbers as much ‘raw data’ as the not seasonally adjusted numbers.” No they don’t — and heaven help us all.
Nevertheless, those who are claiming that the raw numbers showing 2.689 million jobs lost in January led to an unreasonable seasonally adjusted result are incorrect, based on the marked-up BLS-generated tables below:
For as long as BLS has been tracking employment data monthly, January has had a huge number of job losses, mostly because every year employers release most of those who were hired temporarily during the previous two months’ Christmas shopping and shipping rushes. As seen above, during the relatively strong years from 2003-2007, the economy lost an average of 2.7 million jobs in January. This year’s seasonally adjusted conversion to 243,000 job additions is pretty much in line with the seasonally adjusted results from 2006 and 2007, the two years during which recession-plagued data wasn’t factored into the five year-based seasonal calculations. That it turned out this way is largely due to luck, because the monthly raw data from the last four years has been more affected by the stinky economy than typical seasonal job-market fluctuations.
There are other interesting items which surfaced this month in the data used to determine the unemployment rate. The most important is the fact that BLS upwardly revised the number of people who aren’t in the workforce by 1.2 million as a result of fresher information from the Census Bureau. Although this doesn’t mean, as some believe, that all 1.2 million dropped out of the workforce in just one month, it does signify that the administration’s policies during the past three years have continued to generate a combination of rampant demoralization and “going Galt” which has handicapped the economy and seriously harmed the lives of millions of individuals and families.
But let’s get back to those raw jobs numbers, because the acid test for Team Obama’s claim that the economy is finally legitimately recovering will come during the next five months. As seen above, during the four relatively good years of 2004 through 2007, the economy added an average of 4.11 million jobs from February through June. But that was during a time when the unemployment rate was never higher than 5.8%, and in 2007 averaged only 4.5%. An authentically recovering economy making a real dent in a horribly underutilized workforce should generate six million jobs on the ground during the next five months. If it doesn’t, it won’t be genuinely recovering, no matter what the seasonally adjusted numbers say, and no matter what Team Obama and their media lapdogs want us to believe they say.
A fictional jobs report. Labor force vaporized.
Why be surprised by another lie? This Obama/democrat government is the father of lies and deception. Everything that it does and says is based on the policy of keeping the people in darkness. Obama promised the naive Representative Bart Stupidak that he would not include abortion in the new health plan and the democrat voted for it; two years later here comes Obama and democrats demanding that the Catholic Church provide all sorts of birth control including the abortion pill in their health plans. We live in the kingdom of lies where the government and their controlled media, the ministry of truth, constantly pour their bilge of deception on us every day. If the Americans reelect this monstrosity then I will recuse myself from ever supporting the new fascist State of America.
I’m not so convinced that the media is “government controlled” as Rush likes to put it, though I casually buy into the thought since the end result is the same.
But I think they are more willing dupes who generally went into “journalism” because they lacked the talent to understand basic chemistry, math, etc. and spent their high school careers aimlessly sitting in the back of the room writing poetry, detached from the goings-on in the classroom.
Add to that the nefarious way that the education system embraces that and liberal teachers latch on to such individuals and reinforce their love of writing ( I didn’t say GOOD writing; The kind that requires discipline and the power of deductive reasoning) and you have the perfect storm for generating know-nothings who think they’re smart.
Over the years I’ve watched as newspaper articles have become more rife with grammatical errors, poor word usage, syntax problems and simple punctuation mistakes that go far beyond simple errors in the editing process. I can only attribute this to the lax way that writing happens now. And, I’m not saying that I’m in any way a superior wordsmith. In fact I consider myself poor to average at best but if I can recognize these gaffes in the printed daily trash, then there’s most likely a problem.
Also, the gaggle of young “journalists” that have been coming up are indoctrinated in the ways of marxism without even knowing what it is. They don’t write objectively. None of them do. Everything I was reading until I quit cold turkey some years ago smacked of some emotionally-charged writer trying to make their mark in the world by spewing gibberish and junk.
Then, take it to the extreme of Brian Williams. The talking head’s talking head. I have heard that in conversation he is an absolute twit. He knows nothing about the technical side of anything. Such is where we are as concerns news reporting. The days of the young cub reporter working their tail off to get a scoop or go to the places to uncover the story and report the facts.
News people are basically lazy, both physically and mentally. Maybe it’s not their fault as the school system doesn’t require them to understand what work is. But they carry that on into the whole news-reporting arena, all-the-while thinking they are “paying their dues”.
But at the end of the day, they have just spewed the leftwing talking points, and their ignorance is on display every moment Matthews, Maddow, Shultz, Mitchell, etc open their mouths. They know nothing but it’s worse because they actually THINK that they do know something.
They’ve were called “Useful idiots” by Stalin, and nothing has changed in the intervening years.
For more, see: http://www.qando.net/?p=12416 (Why has the collapse of Communism had so little impact on political discourse in the West?)
Does the governmant (the socialist governmant) control the media? Well if you were to base the answer on the amount of media/reporters who dont like what the governmant is doing, but want to keep their jobs it would be no.The mainstrem media would be yes.
The fatal flaw of journalism? You have to UNDERSTAND what you’re reporting in order to ask meaningful questions and explain the answers and context accurately and clearly to your audience.
As a friend often remarks, back in our college days, only the hapless or inept went into journalism. We’re seeing the results today. Many reporters have no clue how government, the economy, business, etc. are supposed to work so they can’t ask penetrating questions or analyze the fallacies they’re being fed.
And yes, P Jay, you’re correct. The writing skills of today’s journalists are feeble and fraught with errors. Sloppy writing and editing means sloppy thinking.
Not long ago CNN’s Wolf Blitzer appeared as a contestant on the game show “Jeopardy” and managed establish the worst (and painfully embarrassing) performance EVER in the history of the show. A real genius that Wolf.
You have a point related to the article?
Apparently you were in too much of a rush to read the comments in #2 above – all about how foolish today’s MSM people are. That’s what this post has to do with. Try to keep up in future, please.
The author’s first mistake when writing this article is that it is based on government issued statistics. With this regime everything it says, does, or any facts it issues is to be treated with deep skepticism. “Decent Jobs Report” It was phony from beginning to end but has once again served it’s purpose of lowering jobs expectations and enabled the propaganda media to once again trumpet a fake economic recovery which will benefit, in an election year, you know who. A disappointing article which avoids the brutal truth that real unemployment is at Great Depression levels and is still sinking. Yet to come $5 per gallon gasoline which will be a hammer blow between the eyes of a nearly moribund economy.
Junius said: “Yet to come $5 per gallon gasoline which will be a hammer blow between the eyes of a nearly moribund economy.”
Yup, and you can bet it’ll be “Bush’s fault” somehow.
ABC’s pathetic “Fact Check” is trying to claim that Obama was only referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program and the nation’s housing situation, but not to the economy as whole.
From where I’m standing at least (and I’m not a homeowner), the housing market is nowhere near recovered. I live in a neighborhood of two family duplexes, and the two on my street for sale have been on the market for 5 months each. Despite the fact that our city’s rental vacancy rate is very low, noone is buying houses. My husband and I are personally waiting because we think prices will fall more and because we think a house would be very hard to sell, if we had to move.
Explain something to me. If by law, congress and the senate have to pass a budget every year, and the Reid senate has tabled any such budget, what is the legal mechanism to enforce that law? I get it that congress can up the spending with short term resolutions, and thereby absolve themselves from working within a fixed budget, but how do they get away with violating their own laws?
Well, in theory, House of Representatives is supposed to administer such actions, but the actions have to be brought to the fore as a result of a peer-guided critique of such action. That is, someone in government has to complain, the decision on how to proceed voted on, etc. etc. But someone in congress has to raise the issue and it all has to undergo due-process.
http://legal-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/Articles+of+impeachment
“In cases of Impeachment, involving the president, vice president, or other federal officers, the House of Representatives prepares the articles of impeachment, since it is endowed with the “sole Power of Impeachment,” under Article I, Section 2, Clause 5 of the Constitution. The articles are sent to the Senate, which has the exclusive power to “try all Impeachments” by virtue of Article I, Section 3, Clause 6.”
Given that the Senate is democrat-controlled, there is little to no likelihood of any type of enforcement.
If, on the other hand Daryl Issa was accused of stealing pencils, impeachment proceedings would happen at light-speed.
Ouch! And thanks! “brought to the fore as a result of a peer-guided critique of such action.” seems to be the operant phrase for extending the priviledges of collusion and cover-up. What we have here, is not only an abdictation of leadership, but a genuine vacuum of ethics. Will any of the fearless candidates speak up more than sniping?
1.2 million people vanished to make the false jobs 8.3% unemployment; if that is success, the word has lost its meaning.
Maybe they are all in the Occupy movement and dare not leave the encampments. Is sure seems like there are 1.2 million of them, judging by the media.
Going Galt (to me) means withdrawing money and business expansion until the crazy socialist cabal in DC is dethroned.
You’ve heard a lot of business people say they’re keeping their powder dry & not expanding, given that said unpredictable cabal would be throwing even more regulation and expense their way were it not for some restraint as a function of the House going republican in the 2010 election.
A President of the US gushing over a manufactured “jobs report” and shaking his self-righteous finger at Congress saying (literally)…”Don’t screw it up!” is enough to make a grown person cry at this sad and puerile federal government.
It’s already way screwed up, Barack, thanks to government interference in business in general, and yours in particular.
If Obama does manage to win another election, I fully expect us to reach the economic definition of full employment within eighteen months without adding a single job. Obviously, the employment data is meaningless.
So the only fair way to measure the real success of our economy and the only thing I’ve found reliable with which to judge, is how many people are now dependent upon federal government?
And just this morning I read public dependence on the federal government is up 23% in just two years under President Obama, with 67 million now relying on some federal program.
I don’t believe for a second the economy is improving…
8.5% will be the “new normal” full employment. Like the “new normal” gasoline price ($3.50/gal VS $1.90/gal).
Progressives: Rewriting history one page at a time.
You know the government will be fudging the employment numbers for the next 9 months to make it look like things are getting better, when we know they are not. O will use these bogus employment reports to fool the sheep into voting for him again. I am sure we will see more of this creative accounting when the government releases housing information and other economic reports. All for the greater good. Baaaah!
I remember during the G.W. Bush years, when there were three consecutive months of improvement in the economy, all the media people warned that we shouldn’t rush to analyze a trend that may not continue.
But, with Obama in the White House, even the slightest hint that things may be getting better is trumpeted as if it were equivalent to the Second Coming of Jesus, even when the data used to create the illusory improvement is clearly flawed.
Why do you believe that Santorum’s victory in caucus states with small numbers is more significant than Romney’s primary victories in states like mine, Florida, reflecting the will of hundreds of thousands of voters?
Let us assume for just a moment that the books were not cooked, and the seasonal adjustment is statistically valid. Has anyone noticed that the recovery, such as it is, comes just about a year after the Republicans took over the House, and Congress essentially stopped passing new legislation. No more Obamacares, Dodd-Franks, or even the threat of a legislative cap&trade. Do you think it possible that the John Galts of the world are starting to emerge from their shelters, have had a chance to assess the risk, and are now starting to figure out new ways to make money and employ people. If a respite from new legislation is creating these green shoots, just think where we might be if the EPA were muzzled, and all of the harmful legislation passed over the past 10 years were repealed–the economony would take off like a rocket.
Interesting points, Adam.
“The most important is the fact that BLS upwardly revised the number of people who aren’t in the workforce by 1.2 million as a result of fresher information from the Census Bureau. Although this doesn’t mean, as some believe, that all 1.2 million dropped out of the workforce in just one month, it does signify that the administration’s policies during the past three years have continued to generate a combination of rampant demoralization and “going Galt” which has handicapped the economy and seriously harmed the lives of millions of individuals and families.”
Are YOU better off now than you were four years ago? If not, then vote Republican in November. Simple as that.
The jobs numbers (and headlines about them) are flat-out bogus and intended to deceive. Refer to http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/deconstructing-massive-beat-employment-data for excellent analysis of the real jobs picture!
Americans are spoiled by easy money, government support, and liberal expectations. These expectations will likely extend and deepen the recession as voters look to the government to fix things and to make it easy again, and they will elect people who promise to do so.
We will not break out of this long slump until there is a renewal of realistic expectations and a viable economic approach established, based upon feasible economic principles. We may, or may not, be at the point by November to start on this path—I doubt we are.
Regardless of what happens politically, this economic condition will not end quickly, and will require major structural changes, including expectations of self-reliance and self-capability over ease.
These structural changes will not occur in the US until modern liberalism, Keynesianism, and statism have diminished in influence to the point that a free market economy can re-emerge that can create improved economic standards.
There will be no credible indication of significant economic improvement until voters have shown a corresponding significant repudiation of statism and a willingness to accept hard realities of economics and personal commitment.
It is going to be a long recession.
–the long recession is less my fear than that our very sovereignty may be the ultimate target –the last entry on the ‘to-do’ list, after the theft and/or destruction of everything do-able in the time frame. This bunch thinks big –the item will not have escaped immense and detailed scrutiny, including a ‘what-if-we-lose-the-2012-election’ short-time contingency plan. North America is prime real-estate, and a government is always just an idea.
I bit of a disappointing post. After the headline I expected to hear about all those business owners who have gone Galt! Personally, as much as I’d like to go Galt, I’d rather make money if the opportunity presents itself. “Going Galt” is a privilege few of us can afford!
Good analysis of the stats though.
Yep, 20% of the country will understand that the headline job reports lie. The same 20% who would vote against little lenin no matter what.
The problem is that the headline job numbers will be believed hook line and sinker by the other 80%.
Particularly if you have a guy like McMitt, who really really likes obama a lot and would never contradict him to his face about anything. That would be impolite.
So I guess one-bullet Mitt better begin praying for a lot of layoffs between now and November, because that is his only chance. Other than the economny, that’s all the guy’s got. Because if there aren’t a ton of layoffs, the next one or two million who drop out of the creatively named “workforce” and the hundreds of thousands of gubamint new-hires, and the million or so summer hires are going to push unemployment down below 8%…like people with brains knew would happen several months ago when we began thinking about how effective one-bullet Mitt would be in campaigning againt the most dangerous person on the planet.
But not to worry, Karl Rove and the boys from DC republican-style will do just fine no matter what happens. That’s why they’re backin Mitt in the first place.
It’s ok to rock the hicks, but don’t you dare try to rock the establishment.
Conservatives…the new hippies.
Is Michael Mann working for the BLS too?
So we need a quarter of a million jobs each month just to break even and this is the first time and it may be a lie.
Well, that IS good news. I think I’ll take out a massive loan using my future food stamps and unemployment as collateral.
Hooray!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Let’s all vote for Obama again. It’s very suspenseful at least and I like drama because I get bored sending pictures of my pet ferret to people on Facebook and then Twittering about it. If a Rep was elected I might have to leave the house.
–well, thanks for that laff, gallows humor do meet one of the time’s most pressingest needs –
I am tired of statistics and would like to sponsor a fairness bill that would apply to any “news”. I would want a disclosure “‘Numbers only’ with source” requirement placed in all media. I’m fine with spin, but reported news should be sourced with some kind of disclosure. Maybe just a public retraction requirement would change the world.