Beyond that the information I lack is about the current US Administration and President’s plans for there is information aplenty about the sort of lies and deceit spread by supporters of Hezbollah and murdering agents of Baby Assad.
History will not be much help in sorting out the mess, beyond providing a starting point for figuring out where things are and I do not in any way doubt the resolve of the Lebanese in confronting outside agitators and extremists, given their fortitude in taking out the Al Qaeda who imposed themselves on a PLO “refugee” camp. Hey traveler look, there are those quotation marks again. If that is the example of the extent to which the Lebanese wish us to intervene I am all for it. Especially if such intervention were to be aimed at Nassrella. I heard a rumor that he is studying to become a Mullah along side of Al Sadr. Or perhaps he is fearful of just people talking completely justified action against him.

ie Ralph Peters the possible “re”-cut-out, commented by Turks and Frenchs academics :

http://fig-st-die.education.fr/actes/actes_2008/de_tapia/article.html#sdfootnote8sym

at the independance in 1943, It was agreed, but not written, that the Presidency of the Republic will return to a Maronite and the post of prime minister a Sunni Muslim … These provisions meet the Maronite and Sunni bourgeoisie of Beirut as well as the clans of Mount Lebanon. The inhabitants of the regions south and east, Shiites in part, found much less their count, and kept the nostalgia of “Greater Syria”, and are being marginalized as in the rest of the Middle East.

The new government kept the french institutions and ruled with the 3rd french constitution :

http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/1366676/Constitution-of-the-Third-Republic

At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the largest communities are : 1- the Shiite Muslims (more than 30%), 2- Sunni Muslim (21%), 3-Maronite Christians (25%), Druze (6% ), Greek Orthodox, Greek Catholics and so on. Shiites tend to become the predominant group. Christians are being marginalized as in the rest of the Middle East.

http://www.herodote.net/histoire/evenement.php?jour=19200428

The problem is that the Lebanese government doesn’t represent its nowadays demography. The Shia always have were misrepresented and considered as their 3rd world population, that pushed some of their representants to “radicalism” and to look for an external support, wwhich Syria was happy to serve them, and behind Syria the iranian theocraty that saw there a tool to ignify revolts or terrorism whenever it needs it.

Though it seems that since the election of the last lebanese president, the atmosphere is a bit warmer, Lebanon send an ambassador to Syria last August, and HBZ doesn’t seem to systematically obbey to Iranians recommandations, we saw that it didn’t want to support Hamas in the last crisis.

So, I hope that the Lebanese government finally will become “realist” and find a way to compromise with the whole population ; it ain’t any good that foreign troops stay there.

finally, i think your assumption that a majority of the lebanese would reject a pro iranian/hezballoh influenced government is very very questionable. i have studied the situation years and to be perfectly candid, i suspect the US will have to be satisified with a govt that is only so/so anti american or pro western. i would think by now … knowing what happened after the last election … people would begin to grasp this reality. i might also finish with saying, as long as the west (mainly america) tries to mold the lebanese into what we think they should be … the longer the problem will continue. let them go this process by themselves and find the answer that best suits them.

Potential allies are put off, confused and I suppose a bit dazed at the web of alliances. That an alliance opposed to Hezbollah still can muster the strength to oppose further change is IMO something short of a miracle.

To me the road to a free Lebanon is the road to a free Damascus, and is the same road to a free Tehran. It is however a two way road, a thing the current administration appears to lack cognizance.

My fear is the manipulations currently offered by President Obama’s envoys in Damascus and Tehran will lead to the cementing of strongmen and establishment of governments that not only have a demonstrably poor human right record but a demonstrable willingness to manipulate, (i.e. lie steal cheat and murder) in order to achieve their goal so matter the expressed will or perceived desires of the citizens.

It is a parallel that is a bit frightening.