On Exercise and Laugh Expectancy
Let us suppose that a person sleeps the number of hours per night that is optimal for life expectancy: that is to say, eight hours, both more and less being associated with increased death rates. This means that he has 16 waking hours to fill. Let us suppose that of these, 4 are devoted to tasks that he cannot avoid, such as eating, cleaning, administration etc. He also works on average 6 hours a day. That means that he has 6 hours of disposable time, analogous to disposable income. If, in addition to his basic 15 minutes of exercise daily, he does 30 minutes extra exercise, he spends 8.33 percent of his disposable time on it. This will increase the length of his life by 8 percent. He has therefore gained no disposable time, assuming, that is, that he has performed the exercise solely for its health-giving properties and not for its own sake, that is to say for any enjoyment that he might have had out of it. But people who enjoy exercise will do it anyway, irrespective of its health benefits.
It might be argued that the time he gains will be at the end of his life, when he is retired and therefore has more disposable time on his hands. On the other hand, it is not true that an hour of disposable time at the age of eighty is of the same value as an hour of disposable time at the age of forty. These two considerations probably cancel each other out; and therefore doing exercise is of no value to your life, unless you enjoy doing it.
Be that as it may, the letter in the Lancet ends on a note of irony not frequently encountered in the scientific literature:
We contend, therefore, that the risk of mortality for everyone—prophets included—is 1·0 (1·0—1·0).
We declare that we have no conflicts of interest.
The (1.0 – 1.0) refers to the statistical confidence limits with which the statement is made: in other words the rule is one man, one death. As for the lack of conflicting interest, that speaks for itself.






Exercise is not about living longer – it is about living better.
Fitness makes it easier to enjoy life and makes life worthwhile, longer.
Mind you, the actual “exercise” part itself is pretty miserable… But it is better than being a wheezing semi-mobile lump.
I disagree about the actual exercise part being “miserable”: I do enjoy it, and I have a secret (shhhhh !!!) I put in the CD player some nice audio book (99% of time, the Lord of the Rings unabridged) and there I go with my work out in Middle Earth…
Sherab, a small percentage of people find exercise to be fun and stimulating but for the vast majority of us, it is a tedious, mind numbing, hideous way to spend our time.
One delightful element gleaned from exercising is how it feels so good to stop. Seriously. Post target heart rate for 20 min. or longer, with the muscles all warmed up & loosened up yields a really nice feeling of strength & well being. JMO.
If you are just getting back in shape, expect it to be hard and miserable for 3-5 weeks.
If it’s still not enjoyable after that, you are doing something wrong.
Beg to differ. I am 90 years old, have survived a triple bypass, and W.W.II leg wounds that gave me a permanent foot-drop, but still look much younger than my years. I swim 1000 meters at a time and lift weights and dread every minute of it. Boring, boring. I often wonder if it is worth it, to live a long time, if you have to spend that time lifting weights or staring at the bottom of a cold swimming pool. I think I stick around out of sheer orneriness. But don’t mind me. I don’t want to spoil masochists’ fun.
Same method, different tool. I have my Kindle read to me, at least when I’m on the bike, or treadmill.
That only makes it LESS miserable.
The reward is when you hit the sauna or the whirlpool – if you have enough time. I can soak for an hour or more…
Since I discovered swing dancing, my exercise has been fun.I wish that I had time to do it more than 2-3 times per week.
All very true when the only issue is length of life. Quality of life is extremely important, and I say this as someone up in years with health issues that have been significantly improved with regular exercise. I don’t enjoy the time spent exercising, but it it well worth it for improving my overall health.
I recognize that the choice to exercise or not is a personal one and should not be made into a moral issue by the nanny state.
Thanks for this excellent common sense article.
Wow, I’ll get to spend another few years in a nursing home at the end of my life. What fun.
http://beatingyourselfatyourowngame.tumblr.com/
I thought you might appreciate this!
Yeah, Libertyship – choose not to exercise, be a ‘wheezing semi-mobile lump’ (per HtH above) & die a slow, agonizing death in a nursing home, and in the process, be a burden on society – good plan. A better plan is to exercise, enjoy quality time while you’re here, and have it all end quickly.
Stay active & moving – walk, jog, run, bike, swim, aerobics, weights/machines, doesn’t matter – or atrophy away. Your choice.
Yes indeed! I remember reading somewhere that when doctors are asked how they would prefer to die, the most popular option is a sudden massive heart attack. One brief burst of pain, and you’re out like a light, done. All that exercise will do for you is greatly lessening the odds of this happening…
This is probably what happened to Kleobis and Biton, and – much more recently – to Andrew Breitbart.
And let’s completely ignore physiological variability among human beings so we can be smug. Your body may “atrophy away” if you spend your afternoon doing something more interesting or worthwhile than destroying your knees and getting skin cancer jogging in the sun, but other human beings’ bodies may not.
It’s demonstrable that if one exercises every day for 200 years, one will live 200 years.
That’s irrefutable.
It may be irrefutable, but I’m still waiting for someone to demonstrate it
Two hours of aerobic exercise per week nets me about 14 hours alive-and-awake time per week. Egoscue exercises have gotten rid of pain that inhibited the use of my back, a knee, and a foot. Strength exercises give me the figure to attract male attention.
My opinion is that exercise is not guaranteed to prolong your life, but no exercise will almost certainly shorten it. Once you get your pre-approved scooter and handicap tag, it’s a short, quick slide to the Pearly Gates.
It is important to find an active activity that you enjoy and if it requires a little extra exercise that is less enjoyable to help you enjoy your main activity, all the better.
Exercise is a waste of time. What’s not a waste of time? The thing you have to do. If you’re lucky enough to have such a thing you actually have a life, as opposed to an existence stretched out (perhaps) by exercise.
“Exercise is a waste of time.”
Among the most ridiculously absurd things I have read lately. Whether you like it or not, regular exercise is good for the mind & the body.
Dr: stop smoking, stop eating anything that tastes good, stop sex , stop drinking and you will live 100 years
Patient : 100 year for what?
Thew man that created jogging died at 54 running a marathon.. seven years older than his smoking father
Exercise in a gym is pointless. You do not get 10 extra years as an 18 year old. You get 10 extra years to wear diapers. Do hard, physical work throughout your life. It has double the beneficial effects. Your body gets a workout and you accomplish something. Tend a garden for 3 hours when you get home from the office, build houses, put on roofs and other stuff like that in your spare time as your exercise. Every 60 year old should be a framing carpenter for 5 years to retirement. I know I’m a crank but gym exercise is a total waste. Unless, of course, you are there for the fillies. In which case it’s not a waste of time.
Good comment; much better to expend energy in the pursuit of a tangible and achievable task. However, given our urban lives, not everyone has access to a garden, or the skills or opportunity to frame a house. Still, whenever possible, I try to exercise by actually achieving something concrete — in the end, it’s much more satisfying…
Or, you could have a lifestyle that does not require you to be behind a desk 8 to 14 hours a day. Since I stopped being an System Enterprise Management guru and started raising goats and rabbits and taking care of our 80 acres, I get exercise – and I get it because the critters depend on me. I have slowly lost some weight, but I am so much stronger because I walk the fence line, explore the woods, and chase the kids who have gone astray.
It is so much more fun and natural to get exercise this way instead of going to a gym and walking on a treadmill or stairstepper or eliptical thingy every day for an hour.
Health nuts are going to feel stupid someday, lying in hospitals dying of nothing. – Red Foxx
Beth, you have hit on the answer. Strength is the key to a more comfortable living later in life. I prefer to take at least the minimum effort required not to be a hunched over old skeleton. My length of life is likely fated by genes (or fate, i.e. accidents), but quality in life in late life can be massaged. (I wonder if also the life you live now is also simply more fulfilling).
Exercise follows the power law. As the experiment above shows, it’s the first 15 minutes that really matter. If only people realized how little exercise they needed or that it not be the boring rat on a wheel kind that most conceive.
“. . . medical truth now universally acknowledged . . .”. Whenever I read a phrase like that, I lose interest. Personally, I think exercise probably shortens life, but may make what years you have more productive. But perhaps there is a small amount of exercise that could actually prolong life. At any rate, maybe the rest of the universe acknowledges this medical truth, but I don’t. I guess I’m outside the ‘verse.
So, if I understand your math, if I exercise enough every day I will become immortal.
Good to know.
Still, it’s not worth it.
My in-laws are all pushing the high end of their eighties. They were never overweight, always fit, hard workers, never overindulged in anything. And yet, today, they are in such bad shape physically and emotionally, I do not want to be them. Quality of life, yes. Quantity, not so much.
I generally refuse to acknowledge ANYTHING that is universally acknowledged!!!
That said, I admit that I exercise because I’m personally persuaded by the apparent facts that I personally NEED to “exercise” in an artificial manner because my job as an accountant is just too darned sedentary. I walk and lift weights; I’d engage in sport if it was convenient but I won’t go out of my way for it. I don’t run/jog anymore because I think it’s too hard on my feet and joints. I have no idea if I’ll live longer; I just know intuitively that sitting on my rear end all day is physiologically problematic. No need to make a big federal case out of the issue, is there?
It has been my experience that darn few females over the age of 16, and even fewer males of any age can look really good in a bathing suit without getting a significant amount of whole-body muscular exercise. Weight training will suffice; so will jazz dancing.
And after age 50, completely sedentary people find themselves increasingly unsuited to the ordinary demands of daily life — whether we’re talking about moving the furniture, carrying suitcases, opening jars, bringing in the groceries, changing a tire, or shoveling the snow off the driveway. Eventually, by eighty they may need to be pushed through the airport in wheelchairs.
Mr. Stephen Ryan and everybody else:
But why does one have to do boring exercise like swimming and weight-lifting?
Why cannot one play some kind of ball game with friends, ride a bike fast and enjoy the speed, climb a mountain and enjoy the vista, dance, engage in martial arts and enjoy the thrill of combat etc.?
My experience about the healthiness of exercise: if I do not tire myself out with exercise, I need to tire myself out with alcohol. That is surely less healthy.