Olmert Out. Livni In?
How long Livni’s popularity will compensate for such a weak bench and for her own thin record remains to be seen. She may seek to boost her party’s appeal by bringing in some new talent to fill the ministerial posts vacated by herself, Mofaz, and perhaps the justice minister, who dared to take on Israel’s powerful legal establishment and now has members of the Labor Party demanding he be dismissed.
But in order to be in a position to divvy up political spoils, Livni must first cobble together a governing coalition. For this, bringing in Ehud Barak’s Labor Party is the necessary, though not sufficient, condition. The good news for Livni is that Labor, a party that loves its perks, refusing to join an Israeli government is a bit like a fish refusing to jump into water. The bad news is that Barak seems to finally have appreciated that Labor needs to be in the opposition if it ever hopes to regain power.
After ruling Israel for its first three decades, Labor has won exactly two of the last ten elections (Yitzhak Rabin in 1992 and Barak in 1999). Both came after stints in the opposition. Sitting in Olmert’s centrist coalition is believed to have dampened Labor support among left-of-center voters. Playing second fiddle to a far more popular Livni could finish Labor off for good.
Barak has no good options. If he doesn’t join Livni, he will likely face a snap election that he will lose badly. If he joins Livni, she may go to elections in a few months anyway, but with the enormous advantage of being a sitting prime minister. Barak is trying to avoid this scenario by getting a commitment from Livni to form a government that will serve out the remaining two years of the Knesset’s term. The problem for Barak is that he has no leverage, and Livni knows it.
With Barak on board and with a Pensioner Party that has no political future in her pocket, Livni will turn her sights to Shas. This ultra-Orthodox party, which has often been the balance of power in Israel’s unstable political system, will drive a hard bargain at first, claiming it too is unafraid of elections. True, polls confirm that Shas’ support is steady. But Shas has much to fear from the aftermath of elections in which it could be left out of the government. That is exactly what happened in 2003 and Shas spent three years cooling its heels in the opposition. Shas does not want to wake up after a titanic Bibi-Livni face-off to see both Likud and Kadima strengthened and Shas effectively irrelevant. Since Livni will be able to form a narrow government even without them, look for Shas to find an excuse to join the coalition.
With Labor and Shas, Livni will have her government. Israelis will then finally get to see for themselves whether she is up to handling one of the most difficult jobs on the planet.
For a crisis in Israel is never long in coming.
The Answer is Bibi. Now, what was the question? Nothing Hezebollah and their leash holders in Tehran want more then Livni and Obama elected.
On the Other hand McCain and Bibi, two combat proven leaders, getting elected is the sort of thing that makes a Mad Dog Mullah wake up in a cold sweat at zero dark thirty.
I would like to point out that there is no race issue between Ashkenazi and Sephardi Jews. The Sephardi Jews came to Israel from mostly Arab Countries right after Israel was established, from Iraq, Yemen, North Africa, Turkey, etc. They do not speak Jewish of (Yidish) In addition small numbers of Sephardic Jews always lived in Palestine for hundreds of years.
Israel about to form an ‘emergency government’ lead by Bibi, those in the loop have been quietly planning this move for a very long time.