Ohio: The (Electoral) Heart of It All
I believe, despite Rasmussen’s October 11 estimate of a slight Obama edge, that Romney is barely ahead in the Buckeye State, and that his lead is on track to grow in the remaining weeks of the campaign for a variety of reasons. A few of them include his stellar October 3 debate performance paired with Obama’s virtual no-show; the administration’s lethal security laxness in Benghazi followed by the administration’s thoroughly exposed dishonesty about the true cause and circumstances surrounding the murders of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans; and Obama’s war on coal, where closed coal mines and the Obama campaign’s lying attacks on miners’ credibility appear to have moved the southern and eastern portions of the state from reliably Democratic to perhaps 50-50.
That Romney has the momentum in Ohio is undeniable. The crowds at recent Romney and Ryan appearances have been so large that even chief Obama bootlicker Steve Peoples and his bosses at the Associated Press, aka the Administration’s Press, appear to have decided for the sake of whatever remains of their credibility to report them instead of lying about them. A Friday Columbus Dispatch editorial ruthlessly ripped the Obama administration’s handling of the entire Benghazi debacle. It also appears that more voters are figuring out that the Buckeye State has economically outperformed most of the rest of the nation, not because of the “Obama saved the auto industry” myth, but because of the fiscally conservative, mostly growth-oriented policies pursued by GOP Governor John Kasich since he took office in January 2011. Before that–and though much improvement is still needed–Ohio was a pathetic economic laggard.
That the Obama campaign has become very concerned about Ohio is equally undeniable. Team Obama is sending two of the left’s allegedly brightest stars, Bill Clinton and Bruce Springsteen, who originally ”said he wouldn’t campaign for Obama” earlier this year, into the state for a joint appearance on October 18.
Springsteen’s official website quotes Obama campaign apparatchik Jim Messina as follows: “Bruce Springsteen’s values echo what the president and vice president stand for: hard work, fairness, integrity.” Exactly how Messina or “The Boss” can reconcile those alleged positive traits with 100-plus rounds of golf, unprecedented cronyism, and enough lies to keep Michael Ramirez at Investor’s Business Daily busy presenting ten each day between now and Election Day if he so chooses–leaving plenty still unnamed–is a complete mystery.
Another reason for Ohio to vote against the current Administration is the way that Race to the Top grant and the NCLB waiver actually work. Essentially the dysfunction of the urban Ohio schools gets exported to the suburban schools that were functioning well. That’s how to close the achievement gap. Academics are not equitable so the focus becomes social and emotional learning as all students have feelings. http://www.invisibleserfscollar.com/how-social-and-emotional-learning-as-the-primary-focus-is-coming-in-all-the-windows/ is the first post I wrote explaining SEL.
I have a lot of regular readers from Ohio who have sent me newspaper articles on what is going on there. The Positive School Culture aspect is a key component of the NCLB waiver. Because Ohio is full of watersheds, it is also Ground Zero of Bioregionalism. In the Regionalism breakfast I was in last week NE Ohio was expressly listed along with Portland, Oregon, LA, Seattle, and Minneapolis/St Paul as in the vanguard of the Regional Equity Movement. john a powell (Mr “we must destroy the concept of the unitary self”)is a prof at Ohio State which is also the center (Fountas & Pinnell Guided Reading, Balanced Literacy, Literature Collaborative) of the continued assault against print fluency in our schoolchildren that is on steroids in the Common Core ELA standards. And John Goodlad’s National Network for Educational Renewal is strong in the colleges of education in Ohio. P-16 is a long time to be psychologically manipulated to change values, attitudes, and beliefs with little real knowledge to be allowed through lest the student develop an Axemaker Mind.
Just a few things that will need to be addressed in Ohio to turn this juggernaut that has decided we are no longer entitled in the US to be individuals apart from the assigned Common Good. Every one of the things I listed will be fully operational in an Obama 2nd term.
Just in case you Ohioans need even more incentive to Get Out the Vote.
It is just ridiculous: the fate of the election of 314 000 000 nation is going to be decided by the voters of a single state where due to the early registration rule the chances for falsification are huge.
A solution to this would be for individual states to amend their constitutions and apportion electoral votes by Congressional districts. Maine & Nebraska have already done that. There was an iniative in Pennsylvania last year to do that.
The problem of course, is that the two major political parties are dead set against it. And I fear a system where a national popular vote decides the outcome.
Yes, that is the right solution – EV by congressional district and 2 statewide EV’s. I do not understand why the GOP would not like the idea, but the DEMS would surely hate it. It would open up CA and NY EV strongholds for a migration of 10 to 20 EV’s.
It would be a very close approximation to national popular vote but also allows for easy recounts, no florida.
Assuming each seat is “fresh” vs rigged to keep a rep in for decades, the EV probable totals would match the number of senate and house seats each party has. 2008 was surly DEM, 2010 is very RED. What does 2012 bring.
I agree. I don’t know why the GOP would be against this. I think it would be a slaughter for the left if this happened.
If it was done in a red state, then it would potentially give a mojority to the Dems. It would need ot be done everywhere. Which would make it very likely that elections would get thrown into the House.
I live in NW Ohio. Once you get out of the cities into the ‘burbs there is very little Obama support. We are starting to see a small recovery here, mostly due to good management after the state gubmint was taken back by the adults. We no longer have an $80 B hole in the state budget, and the Lt. Governor’s initiative on regulation has slowed the rate of new regulations by half. That example alone should get out the anti-ObamaRx vote.
$80B hole in OH state budget? Are you sure about that? I thought CA had like a $24B, and it’s the worlds 7th largest economy or some such. I could Google it but I’m too lazy.
Ohio’s deficit was $8 billion in 2010.
Current status is toss up according to Rasmussen
Let us pray that good people from Ohio will vote not to let their beloved USA turn into a second spain ………………
Thursday, October 18, 2012
The second presidential debate doesn’t appear to have made a difference in Rasmussen Reports’ first post-debate look at the race in Ohio. It’s still a toss-up.
The latest telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, taken last night, shows President Obama with 49% support to Mitt Romney’s 48%. One percent (1%) prefers another candidate, and two percent (2%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
How did you do in this week’s Rasmussen Challenge? Check the leaderboard.
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on October 17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is onducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
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I was that Anonymous !
If Romney would have 257 electoral votes right now without Ohio, it is possible to win without the Buckeye State. But it would be problematic. (257 includes Colorado, Florida, North Carolina & Virginia as red states.)
257 + Iowa (6) + New Hampshire (4) would leave Romney only 267.
That means he needs either Nevada or a big midwestern state to put him
over the top.
I’m praying Ohio returns to the flock. But I am also thinking this might be
the year a Republican wins without Ohio. It’s never happened – I know.
But it’s not impossible.
I’m encouraged by recent polling in Michigan, actually. Romney could take MI.
It will be nice when this is over and we Ohioans can answer our phones, turn on the TV, or look at a web page without getting bombarded with political ads.
Next candidate who blocks traffic with their motorcade on my way home from work is NOT getting my vote.
There are much fewer people in Northern Ohio than there were 30 years ago. Vast stretches of Cleveland, Youngstown, and Akron are vacant. Stimulus money here is clearing out the abandoned buildings and leaving nothing. In southern Ohio there is a lot of gas and shale oil waiting to be tapped. So, it is the economy stupid.
Oh, and if you are not singing Thunder Road just shut up Bruce. You were here plugging for Obama four years ago and nothing got better. In your better days you wrote this. Maybe that is why you never sang it the last time you were in Cleveland:
They scream your name at night in the street
Your graduation gown lies in rags at their feet
And in the lonely cool before dawn
You hear their engines roaring on
But when you get to the porch they’re gone
On the wind, so mary climb in
Its a town full of losers
And Im pulling out of here to win.
Wisconsin is a realistic possibility to get to 270.
“Exactly how Messina or “The Boss” can reconcile those alleged positive traits …” Well, both Spruce Springtree and O make lots of money on residuals… the former for songs; the latter (giggle, giggle) for the book he wrote. I used to be a former Spruce fan, but now, when a Spruce song comes on the radio, I quickly turn it off: I am disgusted with myself for having cheered for such socialist. Listening to his interviews is painful: he thinks of himself a such a deep thinker; but his best work is a 3-4 minute ditty. I should have known what a scumbag he truly was when he divorced his first wife years ago to marry the bandmate and then decided to have an affair with a woman whose husband was sick in a hospital. He definitely has Napoleon syndrome, and given his height, he probably likes the comparison.
I would go Ariel-Sharon crazy and start a blitz in… California. High gas prices + big-tent reconciling tone (let’s work together) could make the trick?
What did Ariel Sharon do that was crazy? Expelling the Jews from Gaza, maybe.
9 john B, Could not agree more! I would like to see Ted Nugent debate Springy or better yet UFC contest!
2 Points: One is truly important
1. District of Columbia, for most of our history, had no vote in the presidential race: when the nation grew to 535 electoral votes it provided an odd number that precludes a tie between two candidates. This constitutional issue should be revisited. Washington DC should not have three electoral votes, treated the same as the small-population states. Washington DC should be reduced to Zero or Two electoral votes to change total EV either back to 535 or to 537 EV. We should not allow an unfaithful elector to steal a presidential election.
Two: I always believed Obama would lose NC and Florida in 2012, a contested slamdunk for the Republicans but a dunk. Virginia worried me but now VA is with us. The next important states are CO and Iowa, and Colorado is polling for Romney and won’t look back. I live in the west and always believed in Colorado. Iowa appears safer for Obama but it is easiest state to nudge to Romney! If Romney campaigns in Iowa, he wins Iowa. That brings Romney to 263 EV.
Of the remaining states, first New Hampshire is the easiest to win. But the winning state is Wisconsin! The heros of Wisconsin have gone through hell to obtain reasonable state government. It’s time for Romney to campaign in Wisconsin and Iowa to lock in his victory. His national campaign otherwise should be with Republican senate candidates who need a boost, to ensure the GOP controls the Senate as well as the House.
I think you’re totally wrong about Colorado.
Romney lost about 30 points here between the 2008 and 2012 primaries, though we did go from an actual primary to caucuses. But this still shows how soft and nominal his support is.
So-cons were for Santorum, fin-cons for Paul. An over-simplification, yes, but it’s problematical whether they’ll turn out to hold their noses and vote for the empty suit, because the whole party flipped both of them the bird when it came to the convention, and the campaign has done nothing really substantive since to appeal to them. Instead, it’s been trying for the same votes as the other, a losing strategy. The low-cost votes are the ones no one is thinking about.
The former gubner of Taxachussets and the inventor of RomneyCare is widely viewed by many conservatives here as just way too liberal, and he’s a phony on top of it (has to be, to be popular with the nimrods back in MA). The mass media seem to have been shoving him down everyone’s throats since well before the first primary/caucus vote was even cast, and that’s enough to turn lots of people off, by making them suspicious of him.
Republicans always seem to get bamboozled into nominating the next guy in line just because it’s his turn. Thus they’re always a cycle (or two, in the case of McCain) behind the curve. The last time this worked was Bush the First, (a one-term disaster who invited Perot in to disrupt everything) so it’s basically another losing strategy.
Amendment 64 will bring out lots of libertarian types, who will vote for Gary Johnson, maybe at the 5-6% level. The latest RealClearPolitcs average has Romney up by 0.2%, which is zip, nothing — and it’s his first theoretical lead. Both Obama and Romney are maxed out at 47%.
Obama lies? Ya think?
So do all of his minions. Case in point: Joe Biden lied about Syria in the VP debate.
US consulate in Benghazi was a hub for recruiting jihadis to fight for al Qaeda in Syria
Based on the latest prediction from the two Colorado University professors, Romney was over the 300 mark in Electoral Votes. If he wins all the swing states except Ohio, he still is the winner. It is doable for Romney to win via that route, but you know if the Lamestream Media can find a way to put Ohio into Obama’s column, rightly or wrongly, to influence other swing state voters to get behind him, they will do that to get the Boy reelected.
I have lived in Ohio for the last 21 years. There is strong support here for Gov. Romney and I believe he will win Ohio. Don’t give up on the Buckeyes, we are thoughtful midwesterners who will take our duty very seriously. Romney/Ryan 2012!
Just one “faithless elector” withholding his or her vote or voting for someone other than the person to whom he or she is pledged would prevent the tie just described.
That’s not correct. The faithless elector would have to vote for the other candidate. The problem isn’t a tie – it is the lack of “a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed” (12th amendment). If there are 538 electors appointed, then the winner needs 270 votes. 269-269, 269-268 with an abstention, or 269-268-1 would all put the election into the House. A plurality of the electoral college is not sufficient.
Karl at 16, good explaining.
What do you think of this as a solution: reducing District of Columbia to zero or two electors, instead of the three electoral votes Washington City has now? In most cases this odd number, 535 or 537, appears to prevent a tie in the electoral college. Plus, DC does not have the responsibility for self-government that states must bear, and has a very different relationship to federal power and its pursestrings. My preference is zero electoral votes for DC but would accept two votes, less than any state. One vote makes sense but 536 EV brings back the problem of ties elections.
Two EV is one fewer vote than the minimum number of electoral votes held by the states of small population. D’oh!
I don’t think that’s a bad thing. I would enjoy seeing the election thrown into the House.
The main thing is not to have a system wherein someone could become President with a plurality.
BTW, givewn recent polls, it’s likely Romney would win the popular and OBama the electoral.
Or you could just increase the size of the House by one seat and let it and its electoral vote go wherever it goes based on population. I think a three way race is more likely to prevent a majority than an actual tie, so I’m not that worried about how to handle a tie.
Repeal the 23rd Amendment. No EVs for the District of Corruption.
The Founders never meant for anyone to actually live in DC. It was planned as the place for federal offices & agencies, foreign embassies, and the president’s temporary residence — IOW, the seat of the federal government, as spelled out in Article I, Section 8. Note that the incumbent president always votes in his home state, either in person or absentee. Everyone else in DC should be required to do the same. This system works just fine for all military personnel. Persons who were born in DC would choose the state of either parent’s birth as their “home” state, or they could choose any other state.
The fact that this would do away with three automatic EVs for the Democrats is just icing on the cake.
Good catch. I missed what Amendment XII did.
Doesn’t alter the central fear, but makes it worse, because a 269-268 or 269-268-1 result in favor of Obama would end up getting “overruled” in the House.
I have always liked Ohio because the people I have met from there were all so nice. It is my earnest desire that the vote in Ohio is conducted fairly — not to mention Florida! I want Romney to win, of course, but if the vote is fairly conducted then I will accept the results. Even if Obama gets reelected, there will be no rioting in the streets by packs of crazed, white geriatrics. It’s when we begin to question the integrity of the voting process that faith in our government starts to erode.
Ever hear of OSU?
There may be a lot of media advertizing in Ohio but I think people are tuning it out along with the ridiculous phone calls. My subjective sense is that the Democrats are in a very subdued frame of mind and that Republicans are energized. There are signs all over the place but 90% of them are for purely local races. The typical Obama sign even seems to be low key – small print on a blue field.
You cannot reach voters who listen to cd’s and mp3 players with ads on the radio. You cannot get to people with cell phones or who screen calls. Who actually answers their land lines during dinner? It is notoriously difficult to reach important sections of the electorate with any kind of advertizing.
I live in a blue neighborhood and work in a blue-atmosphere job. Nobody is talking about this election with the exception of hyper-partisan Obama supporters who whisper among themselves.
Nobody really knows who the undecideds are and no one understands when or how they will finally make up their minds. I see a Romney victory in the cards that could possibly be huge.
Ohio will be icing on the cake for Mitt Romney. Obama will, however, win among his base. Those who show up.
“The best-case scenario if that transpires is that Romney would have to endure at least two years of being cast as “illegitimate” by the left and the press.”
I bet you think that would not happen in any event. Bush 43 won clearly in 2004, but the press didn’t accept it. The press redoubled its efforts to delegitimize him. After talking about having political capital to spend on his programs the day after the election in 04, Bush might as well have resigned. Between the press blaming Bush for the tsunami in Indonesia and then hurricane Katrina, Bush retreated into a shell and was never heard from or seen again. That’s the way the press likes it. Elections don’t matter to them. The sleep thru Democratic administrations, and the attack, attack, attack during Republican administration. Nothing will change even if Romney were to win by 500 electoral votes.
My fault, I’m sorry. My wife and I raised in Ohio but never thought of returning as it’s economy was destroyed by unions and Democratic leaders. So now we and our 3 kids vote Republican in Texas. I imagine we represent part of what swung Ohio to the Democratic column in the past decades.