Ohio Poll Analyst: Voter Turnout Modeling Predicts Big Ohio Trouble for Obama
Clinton Cooper says that the key to predicting a candidate’s vote share is to determine not just the Republican and Democrat votes, but also the share of the independent vote the candidates will receive. A statistical analysis can estimate voter percentages based on historical voter turnout. He explained:
The first step in this analysis is to take the number of registered voters by party, then proportion the total votes received for each candidate by the turnout percentage on Election Day.
He calculated that 35.1% of total registered independents in Cuyahoga County (approximately 219,548) voted for Obama. He determined that 144,703 independents (23.1%) voted for McCain in 2008. According to Cooper:
This same procedure can be performed for each election since 1980 showing that on average, 28.2% of the registered independents historically vote Democrat and 30.3% historically vote Republican. The 2012 vote totals for Romney and Obama can be predicted using this historical 64.57% average turnout for elections since 1980. The projection is that Obama will receive 345,693 votes to Romney’s 212,178 in Cuyahoga County.
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Cooper then crunched the numbers (see the spreadsheet at his website) based on historical voting registration and election results in Cuyahoga County and concluded:
Based on this, the prediction can be made that in 2012, Obama will receive 2,215,978 votes and Romney would win 2,829,037 votes if 7.5% of the total votes cast for Republicans were cast in Cuyahoga County. Romney would win 56.1% of Ohio’s vote to Obama’s 43.9%, with a turnout percentage of 64.67%. This analysis includes the assumption that total turnout will be much lower than past Ohio elections, confirming reports that overall enthusiasm is down for this presidential election compared to 2008.
For those keeping score at home, that’s a 12.2% advantage for Romney statewide.
Acknowledging that not everyone will agree with his assumptions of lower voter turnout this year and a Republican split at 2008 levels, he also calculated the numbers based on 2008 voter turnout. Romney still wins Ohio based on 2008 numbers:
Even if the same turnout as in 2008 is used and the same vote split of independents for Obama and Romney in 2012 as it was for Obama and McCain in 2008, then Romney would win 50.36% of the vote to Obama’s 49.64%.
Cooper cautions that this is a simple model. It is based on historical voter trends, using voter registration and past election results as the primary means of predicting the winner. The model that he uses to advise campaigns is much more sophisticated, analyzing 25 to 30 variables. But he says that the trajectory indicates serious problems for President Obama in Ohio:
The analysis does not guarantee that Romney will win Ohio by 12%, but with certainty, the data does support that the changes in voter registration in Cuyahoga County have made it extremely difficult for Obama to win Ohio.
In another indication that things may not be going Obama’s way, the Washington Examiner reported on Thursday that requests for absentee ballots have been showing gains in Romney’s direction:
While in 2008, 33 percent of the 1,158,301 absentee ballots went to Democrats and just 19 percent to registered Republicans, a 14-point gap, this year 29 percent are being requested by Democrats and 24 percent by Republicans, a five-point gap.
And in a sign that the enthusiasm of 2008 voters is depressed, just 638,997 absentee ballots have been requested, according to American Majority Action, which culled the statistics together from Ohio college professors who are tracking the state’s absentee ballots used for early voting. The group provided Secrets with the details.
Even more dramatic, while the GOP has cut the Democratic advantage in early voting throughout the state, the changes favoring the Republicans in certain counties has been huge. In Franklin County, home to Columbus, for example, a 2008 Democratic advantage of 5 percent is now a 5 percent GOP advantage. In Cuyahoga County, home to Democratic Cleveland, the GOP has shaved six points off the Democrat’s 2008 advantage. And in Hamilton County, home to Cincinnati, Republicans have expanded their 2008 advantage to 13 percent.
This absentee trend and Cooper’s analysis should cast serious doubt upon the gloomy picture the pollsters have painted of the Romney campaign efforts in Ohio in recent weeks.
President Obama may be in for a very unpleasant November surprise.
After looking at this story and at anomalies, like most people,(especially conservatives)refusing to participate in polls, I think it likely that Romney’s support is under sampled. I am not ready to say land slide, I have thought he will get about 320 electoral college votes, but I think it probable he will win comfortably. Lots of people are sick of the countries direction and a large majority think we are off course.
This is pretty much in keeping with what my sister who lives in Ohio has been telling me and she lives in an area in the Northeast, close to Detroit and home of GM, Chrysler, and Ford. Apparently, many still remember the total screwing of non-union Delphi employees, 20,000, when the government bailed out GM and Chrysler.
This article highlights another point to consider. The loss of population in Cuyahoga County means an increase in population elsewhere in the state or a move to other states therefore watering down their influence depending on where they relocated to. Apparently there has not been a major increase in home construction in neighboring counties to warrant a significant loss of residents either so where did they go?
Travelling back home from Charleston, WVA this week, there is a billboard with several coal mining states highlighted in red. The point of the billboard is to call the public’s attention to Obama’s war on coal. It includes Ohio and one of the states. After talking to several public and state employees during my visit, most are not Obama supporters and that is significant when you consider the fact that most state employees do support the president.
I think the election will be a complete surprise to everyone. If Romney wins the next 2 debates as easily as he did the first one or if he holds his own and doesn’t lose, he can probably take most if not all of the swing states. Too many people saw him for the first time and no matter how much the networks try to spin the results, Americans liked what they saw and it should bode well for Romney in November.
“If Romney wins the next 2 debates…”
Not if the moderators could moderate him away from his arguments, from his hammering on Obama’s lies, and keep asking him to defend Obama’s lies against him.
Lehrer was the only “non-partisan”, and he was skewered by the leftists after their god bled last night. Can you imagine the other moderators, the minions from the Bureau of Democratic Propaganda not interfer when their god bleeds again? Even the bravest minions don’t want to lose their jobs the next morning.
Governor Romney, has your wife’s health improved after you stopped beating her?
Romney: I’ve never beaten my wife.
Commentator: Romney evades answering the simple question about the health of his wife. What is he hiding?
And normal people will simply observe that to be ridiculous and skewer the moderator even worse. The Left will lose because they refuse to see their problems. There is none so blind as him who will not see, and refusal to see applies to both Obama and the media.
Toledo is in North West Ohio. Toledo is too far to be a bedroom community of Detroit, but does rely on its own industry.
Counties surrounding Cuuahoga County have benefitted from the migration and thus have experienced a housing boom from those moving out of Cuyahoga County.The.migration is similar to those moving to the suburbs from Cleveland and it never stopped. In a long recession the population movement by some groups does increase as people realize that jobs are readily available in other markets.
Now we’ve seen the Wiz of Oz behind the curtain there’s no going back.
Read “The Check Has Bounced” and see how the media bias set it up, at:
http://john-moloney.blogspot.com/
I have a much simpler model that I use to predict a Romney victory.
As I recall Obama won in ’08 with 53% vs, McCains 47%. That was in 2008, when Obama’s appeal was at its absolute peak and Democratic enthusiasm along with it.
I find it absolutely inconceivable that someone who voted for McCain in ’08 will vote for Obama now. If someone can come up with a rational scenario for that to happen I’d love to hear it. So the way I see thing Romney has a floor of 47%. Which means that in order to win he needs to find 3.1% of the electorate who voted for Obama and is now disappointed, angry or both. Call me crazy, but I’m convinced that those people exist.
So although I’m not ready to start popping champagne corks or anything I am optomistic about November.
I agree,
An Obama win just seems inconceivable to me because:
1. He won with huge support by blacks. He will still get their near unanimous support but in much lower numbers.
2. Ditto for the college vote. They voted hope and change once already and have nothing to show for it.
3. 2010 DID happen and Obamacare is still a highly motivating factor against Obama and the Des
4. Gas prices are 2x what they were in 2008 thanks to Obama
5. Scott Walker. He won his recall in a very hostile environment. In Wisconsin! Will Scott Walker voters now support Obama enough to tilt the state to him?
6. The GOP ran away with the 2010 state elections. Why would those who swept the GOP to power in swing states turn around and vote for Obama.
I just don’t see how Obama can win.
I agree. Also the people who chose to stay at home in 2008 will vote Romney, just as they voted for candidates like Rubio in 2010. This time those that decide to stay at home will be former Obama voters. I know several.
I agree with your reasoning.
However I do know two McCain voters who are voting Obama this time around. What’s worse, I’m related to them.
Why? What possible reason is there to vote FOR Obama?
Damned if I know.
Actually my entire extended family is voting for Obama except for one guy. And as I said, two of them were McCain voters in ’08.
As both Niels Bohr and Yogi Berra pointed out, “Predictions are difficult, especially about the future.”
While I hope his prediction is accurate, we’ll all know in a few weeks. Past performance is no predictor of future results.
Some people say Romney will use the Book of Mormon rather than the Holy Bible at his swearing in.
Either way, I count him more likely to Protect and Uphold the Constitution.
Some people say you’re a life-long Republican with a long career in techno.
Since the Bible is equal with the Book of Mormon to Mormons… that is highly unlikely. The bible is the tradition in America, and he will honor the traditions of his beloved country.
He used the same KJV Bible his father used when he was sworn in as Governor… I suspect this sentimental family Bible will be used again.
What’s your point? Four years ago we had a guy running for president who wouldn’t let anyone use his middle name until he was sworn in.
And there are others who say that the koran was inside the Holy Bible that Obama placed his hand on when he was inaugurated.
In the end, it’s not what’s under your hand, it’s what’s in your heart that counts.
If during the Cold War the Presidant had had a copy of Lenins “Imperialism, supreme state of Capitaslism” wouldn’t you have been a bit uneasy? Or one of Mein Kamodf during WWII? I for one would be nervous if the President were swearing on the book who leads every action of America’s ennemies.
“Simply stated, Cuyahoga County has lost enough Democrats and independents since 2008 that, when projected across the state of Ohio, Obama’s big 2008 gains are all gone. Given how drastically voter registration has changed in Cuyahoga County since 2008, it is likely that Romney can carry the state of Ohio, which is quite contrary to what popular media polls are saying.”
And that’s Clinton saying that…
Yes, Clinton Cooper, NOT Bill Clinton or Hilary Clinton, so don’t put TOO much emphasis on the “Clinton”. This wasn’t a concession speech by the Democrats….
http://washingtonexaminer.com/ohio-poll-romney-leads-51-48-among-those-certain-to-vote/article/2509947#.UG81x6562Sr
The narrative of Ohio slipping away from Romney has been the latest false nonsense peddled by the media, because Ohio is THE bellwether state; only two misses in the last 116 years, and the state that Republicans have ALWAYS had to have to win the White House. So the media zeroed in on it and produced illegitimate polls to show Obama pulling away in it to depress conservative turnout. And now that narrative begins to collapse as the numbers on the ground begin to paint an entirely different picture.
Couple that with Rasmussen showing Romney inching ahead in Florida and Virginia, and this is the end times for the boy king, Obama.
This could be the end of America’s transformation to the dreams of a dead foreign goat herder.
Don’t insult goat herders. That was romanticization. (Though he might have herded goats as a child, not unusual for even the well-to-do in that region. It’s often the job of the youngest child.) Call it like it is: a dead poligamyst alcoholic tribalist kleptocrat of the sort that have made Africa, with all its riches, the miserable place it is.
To all you election numbers geeks out there, go to the Ohio Secretary of State webpage and view the 2008 and 2004 election results….best if opened in separate windows. The focus on Cuyahoga county is indeed valid, but even more valid is the Central Ohio area, particularly, Franklin County.
Look at total votes cast, 2004 and 2008 . . . Only about 16 ,000 more total votes in 08 than in 04 . Now look at how many more votes were cast in Franklin County for Obama than there were for Kerry…….About 50 ,000 more votes….thats almost 25% more than Kerry.
Franklin is the key for a Romney win.
Keyes to the Republic Vol. 1 President Obama and Mitt Romney. Our Nation faces a great crisis and the integrity of our Republic is at stake. Barack Obama offers a path of socialism; but is there real hope in the alternative?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4R4KtYVF-74&feature=endscreen
“The county has lost 48,872 Democrat-registered voters and 194,199 independent-registered voters… a surprising gain of 34,864 Republican voters…”
-48872-194199+34864 = -208207
The mystifying mystery: where are the missing 208207 registered voters in ky-uh-HO-guh? Set up shop in other counties and turn them bluish purple? Or left Ohio to set up shop in sunny California where they can enjoy the sky high gas prices as their patron saint has promised four years ago?
I think they went to Texas for some chili.
A chunk of that number can be attributed to dead voters that have been removed from the rolls. The SOS’s office told me they have removed 150K dead voters from Ohio’s rolls since 2010. They’ve also ordered county boards of election to audit their registration lists quarterly. A drop in population in the county also accounts for a lot of them.
The Washington Examiner article stated 450,000 dead and duplicate voters were perged, the majority Democrats, in Ohio, even more good news.
I wonder how many Democrats will stay at home in Cuyahoga County November 6. Dennis Kucinich’s and Marcy Kaptur’s districts were consolidated this years and apparently there were some hurt feelings in the Cleveland area when Marcy won.
Very interesting point. I lived in that district for a little while.
I think in addition to the way people are looking at these polls, another aspect is being over looked and it occurred just a few months ago, its the Chick-Fil-A factor! I really was impressed with the amount of citizens who showed up and stood in line for support of a company. I am not opening the gay debate what I am saying is that these people came out in the millions, didn’t have posters or do anything disrupted, no they stood in line to support a company. These people believe in America and what it stands for and they made a statement on that Wednesday. I believe these same people are waiting to make the same kind of statement on election day. I think the electorate is overlooking what happened that day! You can call them Tea Party people or just Patriots who want this madness to end.
This just in: The activist judges on the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals just overruled the Ohio legislature and Secretary of State and declared that there will be in-person early voting the weekend before the election. The legislature had passed a law requiring a uniform days and times for early voting and the SOS had set the cut off for 6PM the Friday before the election. The Obama campaign sued and they court just ruled in their favor, ordering that county boards of election can set their own days and times. Cuyahoga County will certainly have weekend voting, probably starting next weekend and continuing through the election, while my rural county (which shares a congressional district) will not.
I live in Ohio and also know some Delphi salaried retirees who voted Obama last time. They are most assuredly not voting for him this time. I also will be working the polls as an election judge in a precinct overwhelmingly African-American, my second time doing so (the first was this year’s primary). Out of the four judges assigned to the precinct, I was the only one with an R after my name even though election requirements call for a balance as there is a shortage of volunteers willing to travel to precincts outside their home district. I have been predicting Romnay by a landslide for quite some time. The debate did nothing to change my mind and the ridiculous polling that has been touted with Obama in front by 9 or 10 is wishful thinking at best.
THE PRESS WILL TURN ON OBAMA: It hates LOSERS more than REPUBLICANS
it all depends on how you define “voter”, doesn’t it?
dead or alive
I surely hope that all of you here are right – and this guy now occupying the WH is shown on the night of November 6th to have lost the election. For me though, that would be a huge surprise, since alas my America died on November 4th 2008 – and I have no evidence to expect a resurrection. The machine that installed this guy there isn’t about to let go. Simply put, this isn’t how hard core leftists lose power, and the underlying broad socio-political and cultural forces that brought this event about haven’t subsided a bit.
Hopefully, I am wrong in my pessimistic view, although I doubt it.
Here’s the way to think about it.
Will any McCain voters from 2008 vote for obama in 2012. Not a chance. With current enthusiam levels, Romney will pick up millions of wishy washy republicans who didn’t vote in 2008. Millions.
Will all obama voters from 2012 support him again. Not a chance. There is tons of evidence that millions will abandom him. And millions more won’t vote. He has been a disaster and they know it.
There are two questions. Will the swing be enough? that’s up for debate. My opinion is: more than enough. The other question is: how much fraud will the dems gen up. Hopefully, not enough.
It should be a relatively easy win for Romney. The big risk was that he would flub the debates. But he didn’t flub, he rocked.
What makes me so angry about this 2012 election and 2008, is the left-wingers
who have bought and paid off the liberal media! Obummer was the worst choice
in 2008, and he is an even worse choice now! We must take this country back,
or we are a doomed society. I always tend to be an optimist, but the manner
in which this country is being destroyed by this terrible joke for a president,
is so sad. It is time, my fellow Americans, to STAND UP for the Constitution,
and SAVE our beloved country! WE CAN DO THIS! WE MUST DO THIS!
Interesting analysis, but I think it is problematic to look at only Cuyahoga County without taking surrounding counties into consideration. Cuyahoga has lost a lot of population into surrounding counties and I think party affiliations (and voting habits) traveled with the people who “went suburban.”
Still, I think Clinton Cooper is right to look at Ohio “outside the box” and not buy into the conventional wisdom exemplified by the major polls. Karl Rove (despite his butchering of the word “Cuyahoga” — I cringed every time he said that too!) did exactly that in 2004 by deconstructing the state’s vote totals into a package that produced a win for W when the conventional wisdom was that Kerry would take the state. The D’s just looked at everything wrong, as usual. Hopefully they’ll make the same mistake this time.
As a 45 year Ohio resident and avid follower of Buckeye politics I can tell you that Cuyahoga ranks 2nd only to Cook County, IL in corruption and vote fraud. In addition, they sent the tin-foil hat boy to Congress year after year, and this after the boy mayor had bankrupted Cleveland, leaving George Voinovich the smelly job of cleaning up after him.
Most of the polls I have seen that had ObamaRx leading big in Ohio were either not of likely voters, or weighted 6 to 8 points toward Democrats. I think it’s a dead heat right now, and that Romney can win if the Cuyahoga and Lucas machines don’t manage to pull a Wisconsin/Al Franken. We’re starting to gain a little economic vitality back after we stupidly handed the resins to the Dems for 4 years, and hopefully the sensible portion of the voter base is excited. It would be be a tragedy to see us back $8 billion in the red again.
I live in the 6th Ohio District. Anecdotally speaking there are, literally, hundereds of “Fire Obama” union sponsored signs throughout this area. We have a lot of coal mine and power plant workers. I don’t think the Democrats are getting these unions back unless the GOP screws them really, really bad.
I predict, Romney in a landslide! Sadly, I don’t vote for RINO’s.
“I don’t vote for RINO’s”
Are you preening for being “principled”?
Define RINO. Romney is pro-life, pro-Constitution, pro-free-market. He cut spending instead of raised taxes to balance the budget in Mass. He gives his own money (40% of his income) to charity, he pays his own “fair” share by skipping deductions he is entitled to. He never asks other people to pay more. He is not Buffett who lobbies for loopholes to lower his own taxes, then lobbies for higher tax rates for other people and earmarks for himself.
You are as stuck-on-stupid as Obama who believes in a caricature and has a rather rude awakening when he faced the real man.
So you’re going to vote for a non-Romney a candidate and thereby help Obama’s re-election effort in Ohio? Brilliant strategy.
P.S. If you send us your address, we’ll be sure and get you an Obama yard sign.
This evidence put forth in the article must be somewhere in Obama’s campaign office. That would explain why Obama keeps coming back to my state almost every week. He and Axelrod must know the Empty Suit is in big, big trouble here. I really can’t wrap my mind around a huge Romney win in Ohio as the company claims will happen, but I’ll gladly accept him winning over Obama by 100,000 votes or whatever the margin is so the vote will not end up in a recount.
I wouldn’t write of the President just yet.
I am certain he can dig up a few more votes someplace.
There’s plenty of time for voter fraud to be committed by the Democrats in Ohio and all across the country. That’s how they win elections. It goes back to 1960 when Kennedy barely won Illinois. Lots of people there were casting their votes for JFK…from their graves.
The Democrats have a big advantage. There is a very large crowd of people who were around prior to WW II. (they are now passing away though. Many of them vote Democratic because all they can remember is when social security (which most of them depend on) was put into place by a Democrat. And Democrats have pushed entitlements ever since. And the Baaby boomers since have often just listed to their parents and have voted Democratic also. Nevertheless, the Babyboomers now have children who can think on their own. I have one of my own., This younger group has come to realize that providing entitlements is nothing more than buying votes and can only hurt ruin the economy for them and future generations. I predict as time goes on our country will become even more conservative. They day of the handouts may be about to come to a screatching hauylt. I certainly hope so.
Tom in Tennessee