Obama’s Job-Killing Economy: The Continuing Saga
Friday morning, the government announced yet another downward revision to a previously published economy-related number. The nation’s gross domestic product (GDP), thought to have grown at an annual rate of 3.2% a month ago, was downwardly revised to 2.8%. “Unexpectedly,” of course; analysts thought that the figure would increase to 3.3%.
In the six quarters since the recession ended, the economy under Barack Obama has grown by about 4.4%, and by only 2.7% in the most recent four quarters. By comparison, in the six quarters after the early 1980s recession ended while Ronald Reagan presided, GDP increased by almost 10%, with 8.5 points of that growth taking place during quarters three through six. The economy under Reagan blasted off; under Obama, it’s mired in something worse than mediocrity.
The glaring shortfall in growth under Obama might not be so troubling but for the catastrophic results it has caused in the employment market. In mid-January, I noted, based on data available at the time, that Reagan’s first six post-recession quarters saw the creation of over 4 million jobs, while only 72,000 jobs were created during Obama’s comparable six quarters.
That was before Uncle Sam’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) completed its annual comprehensive revision. When it went on the books in January’s employment report, it zapped hundreds of thousands of jobs from previously reported figures for the prior 21 months.
Here’s how the Reagan versus Obama six-quarter jobs comparison looks after BLS’s comprehensive revision:
Eighteen months after the recession officially ended, the revised figures show that the economy under Obama is still in the hole by over a quarter-million jobs. That’s because 44,000 job additions in the private sector have been far more than offset by 308,000 jobs losses in the public sector. Here’s a supreme irony, considering that Obama is still somehow perceived as a hero by the state and municipal employees’ unions: all of those seasonally adjusted government job losses — and then some — have occurred not at the federal level, where employment is up by 38,000, but at the state and local levels, where job losses have been 29,000 and 317,000, respectively.
Arthur Laffer and his fellow supply-side economists have more than enough justification to address Will Smith’s line in I, Robot to leftist Keynesian holdouts like the insufferable Paul Krugman: “You know, somehow, ‘I told you so’ just doesn’t quite say it.” Krugman’s latest laugher is that “the stimulus can’t have failed, because it never happened.” Stop it, Paul. The federal government has operated as one big, failed stimulus program since late 2008. Barring a miracle, whether you go with administration or Congressional Budget Office (CBO) numbers, Uncle Sam will show three years of reported deficits totaling over $4 trillion when the current fiscal year ends — even if Tea Party freshmen in the House get absolutely everything they want.
Public-sector jobs are disappearing in the States, because States may not coin their own money. Many have balanced-budget requirements. Some cannot even sell their debt, because it has junk status. They were floated for a year by the stimulus, but now the Piper must be paid.
It is amazing what happens when you take away the credit card from the juveniles.
What I don’t get is why the official unemployment rate is gowing down? There are still almost as many people, if not more, unemployed as when the recession began and the private sector is not even hiring enough people to keep up with college graduates and the growth in the population, let alone re-hiring those people already out of work. So how could the unemployment number be going DOWN? I’ve read in some places that it’s because so many people have just given up looking for work that they’re not counted by the Federal Government anymore. Maybe, but I’m not convinced. There are just too many people still out of work and it doesn’t seem to be getting better at all. Add to that the new layoffs of state and local government employees, and something is desperately wrong.
If the Obama administration is manipulating the numbers just so that it can look good to the voters next year, that is a crime. Either that, or we’re living through what the Japanese did in the 1990s, stagnation with a jobless recovery. Perhaps it’s a lot of both.
This is from own my writings and thoughts
Last month, Home Depot closed its last store in Beijing, one of several outlets shut down since 2009. The world’s biggest home improvement retailer has retained outlets in some key provincial cities, where costs are presumably lower and competition perhaps less intense.
I wonder why!!!”" Could it be that Government owns most things and that the workers are paid such low wages that their isn’t enough money left over to spend.. Is the U.S. headed in the same direction as China’s standard of living ??”" Remember Hillary Clinton made the statement that she admired China’s way of doing business?”" The Progressives desire to get rid of the constitution and half of them really don’t fully understand the damages that would result from scrapping the constitution… That means as citizens our rights would be stripped away from us and we then would become like China and live in dormitories being fed by these large incorporations most likely supported by our new socialist Government when it can finally take full control of America..
Do you see our politicians saying we should switch course on NAFTA?? “”NO”" Chances are you wont either
What I find laughable is this idea the Government “creates jobs”. It’s almost that the media and the Government wants the people to think it and it solely creates jobs. The Government, in my opinion can only HINDER the creation of jobs. The Government only gets it’s wealth from the private sector, thus the Government can only derive jobs. Our Government currently is PREVENTING jobs from being created by its regulations of environment, economy, oppressive tax code, ideology, and shear size. As Regan said (I think) “Let My People Go!”
Every federal job requires 10 private sector jobs to support it. That’s because the federal tax burden hovers around 20%, and every federal job gets twice the compensation of a private sector job.
About 200K federal jobs have been created during the Obama Depression. Therefore, in addition to the 6 million or so jobs that have been lost, and the 5 million or so people who have given up and become welfare trolls, we need an additional 2 million jobs just to feed the ravenous federal yaw.
It will never happen.
…and this year’s Oscar for worst performance by a President goes to…*opens envelope*…Barack Obama!
“I, uh, um, want to thank, ahh, George Soros, and um, no, wait, uh, the American people for, um, allowing me to, ah, I mean electing me to, um, this great honor.”
I am in the trenches and I still see companies moving factories out of here. Not sure where the management comes to these conclusions. Just one more hiccup in the dollar to other world currencies and we will be a third world currency and importing will be very difficult. Not knowing what these people are thinking my guess is they are afraid of the government and O.
The reason companies are moving factories is simple calculus based on cost of labor and the axis of economic ignorance in place in Washington. You can’t change the laws of economics and the slow motion train wreck has already started. Latest sign: folks like Michael Moore laying claim to other’s bank accounts and there is no tidal wave of criticism. This tells you all you need to know about what’s coming. The wise are trying to get out of the way however they can.
Let us hope that the Almighty hasn’t forsaken us and our plight, and will shine favor upon the United States and once more make us the City on the Hill.
Because that’s about our best hope with these clowns in charge. Left and right.
This is nothing more than the usual train wreck that happens every time leftist fantasy collides with reality, only on a much grander scale than usual, and this time it’s happening to us, not the Russians, not the Brits — us.
ObamaCare, the Stimu-less, Crap and Charade, the hi-speed train to nowhere…. Obamanamics is all about giving the public stuff it doesn’t want at prices it can’t afford.
I keep wondering just exactly who declared the “recession” is over, which in my humble opinion has and continues to be a depresssion. The deliberately unreported fact is that millions of unemployed Americans are reaching the end of their economic rope and a massive wave of economic hardship is nearing our shores which will make the previous two years look like a ripple on a pond.
It is heartening though, to see that more and more people are now realizing that what this marxist fanatic and his democrat minions which includes government officials, members of congress, unions, and environmentalists are pursuing a deliberate destruction of the this Republic in order to ensure their permanent hold on power and absolute control of every aspect of our lives. Finally the Evil which has taken root in our country is being recognized as such, which will awaken the citizens in time to save our way of lifel.
Meanwhile his approval numbers hover at the 49-50% if you can believe the pollsters.
I’m beginning to believe those pollsters have SEIU members on their speed-dial.
If the pollsters work for the News Media Guild, it might instead be other members of the CWA (Communications Workers of America).
What has happened to his laser focus on jobs? He has stated this at least three times. It seems to be that his laser has dead batteries.
I believe he knows his policies will not help job growth nor the economy and this is why he keeps pursuing inane and dangerous policies! Surely he is not that incompetent!
As a nation, I hope 2012 will finally be when we unequivocally show we have become sick and tired of being sick and tired of this imposter of a leader?
God save our Republic.
It’s unlikely there has been any growth at all in the last two years.
GDP and GNP includes government spending. Several trillion in new government spending has been tossed into the economy, every penny of which is borrowed. And btw, it’s not just federal spending, state/county/municipality/school district spending counts as well, which is probably hundred of billions or trillions of additional accumulated debt.
Remove that government spending (all on credit) and there is almost certainly no growth.
It’s just like telling your neighbor that you are doing great; put an addition on the house, bought some new cars, took some great vacations…even though your salary has decreased by 10%. You did it all with credit cards you see.
Steve @ #12, I see the confusion. You thought his “laser-like focus” was going to be on CREATING jobs! Well, there’s another function that lasers are good for, and it’s not creation. Quite the opposite, in fact…
3.2% is nothing to brag about, so the markdown is even more telling. I do have recollections of Republican presidents having under 4% quarterly growth, in the 3% and up range, and the media buzzword then was “anemic”.
But they were only men, and Obama is god, so deference must be shown. Otherwise the country will never be destroyed.
What a great article! Clearly every recession in the history of the free market system was caused by the exact same set of problems, and as such could be solved at the exact same speed and efficiency regardless of how deep or during what time period it occured.
Furthermore, Supply-side economic theory isn’t just valid, it’s been proven to work in every implimentation. After all, lets not forget that Reagan ended the 80′s recession by decreasing government spending and reducing taxes in unprecidented ways:
http://www.cato.org/research/articles/images/edwards-040608-chart.gif
/sarcasm
Way to compare apples to oranges and call it legitimate.
Cheery picked facts used to build a laughable argument. What a joke.
Single, common first name. Quick hit insult post. hmmm.
But this one has a link to cato, and he uses sarcasm.
Can paid troll evolve?
Here you go, I used my last initial this time. Forgive me if I don’t want a bunch of apparently delusional people to know my full name. ($100 trillion in debt?…)
The link I posted was just to a tidy graphical representation of commonly available data: tax revenues and government spending over the Reagan years. If you don’t like where it is hosted I will link some other locations for you:
http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/55More.htm
http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=11766
You see, since his death Reagan has been all but canonized. If you believe the hype he single-handedly ended the cold war, discovered and implemented a new and infallible economic theory, cut taxes, and all but ended government spending. Unfortunately, he didn’t actually do any of those things. In fact he ran up record deficits, expanded the federal government by 90% in 8 years, and started programs that have cost trillions (see:star wars) and others that are still sucking up billions a year (see:the war on drugs).
Yet, in spite of the facts, people like Mr.Tom Blumer have the audacity to write articles like this one. Reagan was an average president at best, and solved a lesser recession with MORE spending than the current president.
Of course, if you cherry pick some data and sprinkle in some spin you can easily make it seem like he was some sort of deity(see:this article).
Sources:
http://unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks/uu38ne/uu38ne0c.htm
http://www.drugsense.org/cms/wodclock
Enjoy the facts.
Wow. Using the “Drug War Clock” as a source. You’re kidding, right? Reagan’s name doesn’t even appear there.
And the alleged critique of Star Wars is from the late 1980s. Here’s a dirty little secret, pal: Even if at the time SDI was a total bluff, it faked out the Soviets. And it’s not a bluff now.
Nobody ever said Reagan single-handedly won the Cold War. He needed help: Walesa, Pope John Paul, Thatcher, Lane Kirkland, and others. You seem disappointed that we won.
Your linked graphic shows that tax receipts under Reagan went up by over 80% in six years. The trouble is that Tip O’Neil’s Congress spent it even faster, serially breaking promises to control spending. Not being more aggressive on that front was a mistake.
Aaron: ProReason is right, and your graph doesn’t support what you’re sarcastically concluding. For one, Congress controls spending. Early Reagan year(s) had fed spending 12% more than revenue, ending had 10% more. The deficits as % of GDP were quite small. NOW, however, with Pelosi/Reid/Obamao budgets, FY09 spending ramped up to unprecedented levels, and we’re in the 3rd FY in a row where spending is 85% more than revenue. $3.7T spending, compared with $2.0T of rev. And Reid/Obama are freaking out (and would be the ones to ‘shut down’ the fed govt, because they don’t want spending to go down to $3.64T from $3.7T. Now, Aaron, do you see what’s going on?
So the counties have had a “haircut” of 317k jobs.
The States, with only 29k job losses are just sitting down in the barber’s chair.
The Feds, with a gain of 38k jobs have yet to find the barber shop. But they will, one way or another.
I predict that in 2014, when the US is 100 trillion in debt, government spending has ballooned to 95% of the economy, and unemployment is 9.5%, Little Paulie Krugmen will be lamenting that the governement never spent enough to have a meaningful stimulative impact.
Spending one’s way out of debt, redistributing the nation’s wealth, and trillion dollar experiments, each, on job creation and national health insurance: what could go wrong? “Too big to fail”, bail outs of failing manufactoring and financial sections, ripping off the Chrystler bond holders: the simple solution is to just print more money. Don’t more regulations create more jobs? Trust the security to the U.N., what could go wrong?
What’s your beef JED. Little Lenin is dining on wagu beef, traveling in the greatest luxury known to mankind, and he has rotating buff man-servants. Life is good man, if you have the gift. Life is good.
I don’t look good in a nose ring.
Now here is an easy one for you. What do Charlie Sheen, Kadaffi, and Obama have in common?
Insanity!
Unconstrained egos and adoring media servants…in addition to insanity.
You compare the Regan’s artificial recession to the real one Obama faces, but I’m not at all certain they really can be compared. A recession is not the same as every other recession.
Once inflation decreased, the FED had no reason to hold money supply, and that was the only thing causing the inflation under Regan. Because of this, the economy was set for an easier come back than what has happened under Obama.
Obama has war, housing collapse, and a Congress that is scratching at fleas, not problems with one easy solution. Obama also didn’t have the internet boom to help bolster the market.
All in all, I find myself in disagreement with your comparison.
Reagan faced arguably tougher circumstances, particularly sky-high interest rates, and having lived through it, the early 1980s recession was anything but “artificial.”
The big difference is that Reagan did things that worked (tax cuts, regulatory relief) while Obama and his admin are doing what hasn’t worked and won’t work (stimulus). Moreover, they are hostile to job creation, as illustrated in the column, and business in general — except for those who play the crony game.
Think it might’ve been all those tax raises and all that government aid Ronny Raygun pushed on the states?
I certainly haven’t tracked the official numbers with anything approaching Obama’s famous “laser” focus. (Ooh, look a butterfly!)
I have noticed that more often than not, throughout the “recession that is no more,” both jobs and growth numbers are consistently, if quietly, revised downward a few weeks or months after they’re issued.
Overall, the recovery (I understand that’s what we’re calling Phase 2 of the Recession) is so feeble, it’s safe to say the patient is no longer bleeding to death quite as quickly as before.
Hate to break it to you folks but the recession is over. What we have here is the USA under Obama. It is here to stay until he goes away. If he gets another 4 years God help us. We are living the mantra ” elections have consequences “. Like it or not this is our country and will continue and get worse under his watch. Having a left wing ideologue with the mentality of a college student does not a prosperous country make.
Masters of Unemployment Prestidigitation
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics,” said Mark Twain. Less memorable and catchy is the line that “Statistics are the products of propagandists.”
Both apply to the government’s announcement that the nation’s unemployment rate dropped minimally to 8.9% and a piddling 192,000 new jobs were added nationwide in February, which still left 13,700,000 people out of work. Still, the numbers do represent an improvement in the job market since the November rate of 9.8%.
Then we get to other bad news: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that black unemployment stands at 15.3%, hispanic at 11.6%, teenagers at 23.9%, with 2.7 million “marginally attached,” part-timers and workers who had given up looking for jobs, a number up 200,000 in a year: http://tiny.cc/c6yo6
Now comes the realy bad news: The BLS numbers are baloney. As CNBC’s Rick Santelli pointed out on Friday in “Good Jobs Report Has a Dark Side,” things are not always what they appear to be.
Government stats fall short of reality by not factoring into the good news the bad news of America’s incredible shrinking work force.
As Santelli explained, “The government’s definition of the labor force is all individuals 16 years of age and older, who are employed or seeking employment. It does not include students; retirees; anyone with unreported income, or ‘discouraged’ workers. . . meaning the percentage of Americans not working or even trying to join the work force is at a near three-decade high.”
For the non-economists out there, a layman’s translation . . .
(Read more at http://www.genelalor.com/blog1/?p=3816)