Obama Rebounds From the Wright Stuff
Well, I’d thought at the beginning of last week that Jeremiah Wright’s National Press Club appearance was the wildcard of the week. And how. Barack Obama is only now starting to recover from Jeremiah’s jeremiad. So his numbers in tomorrow’s primaries in North Carolina and Indiana are likely to be depressed. Look for an Obama loss in Indiana and a less than thunderous win in North Carolina.
Nevertheless, Obama’s path to the Democratic nomination is still pretty straightforward. Even with all the turbulence, he’s getting the lion’s share of superdelegates who have come down off the fence. Since Clinton’s 9-point win in Pennsylvania the week before last, Obama has nearly made up her edge in Keystone State delegates, keeping him comfortably ahead.
It’s virtually impossible for Clinton to catch Obama in the race for earned delegates.
Barack Obama barely won the Guam primary on Saturday – it’s called a caucus but functions as a primary run by the Democratic Party – in which people vote throughout the day with secret ballots. Obama ended up with 50.1% of the vote to Hillary Clinton’s 49.9%. He led from the start of the long count, in all areas of the island territory by six to eight percent until the votes were counted in Guam’s largest town, Dededo. There Clinton came on strong. Interestingly enough, many ballots were discarded there. Obama and Clinton will split the four pledged delegates available from the Pacific island, 5500 miles from Los Angeles.
A new territorial party chair and vice chair were also elected today, both superdelegates, replacing the pro-Clinton party chair, and they are for Obama.
Obama picked up three other superdelegates Saturday, to Clinton’s one, including the New Mexico state party chairman, whose state narrowly went for Clinton after a count that mysteriously lasted for about ten days.
So Obama picks up five superdelegates and two earned delegates Saturday; Clinton picks up one superdelegate and two earned delegates. Prior to that, in the post-Pennsylvania days, Obama had picked up 15 superdelegates to Clinton’s 10. So Obama has already nearly erased Clinton’s delegate gain from Pennsylvania.
The Rasmussen robopoll track shows Barack Obama in the same statistical dead heat with Hillary Clinton nationally that he was in the previous two nights. It’s Clinton 45%, Obama 45%. While Obama had an 8-point lead before Wright’s meltdown at the National Press Club on Monday, it appears that he has bottomed out in the Democratic race.
Yesterday’s CBS poll has even better news for Obama, showing him opening up a lead on Clinton again and also leading John McCain. This is a pattern we saw a while back when Wright’s sometimes incendiary sermonizing became a round-the-clock staple of cable TV, talk radio, and the blogosphere. As the shock wore off – in part due to its constant repetition – Obama rose up again. The same pattern happened again with Bittergate.
Perhaps more worryingly for Obama, a majority of voters in the poll say that his denunciation of Wright on Tuesday was likely driven by politics rather than outrage. And a majority feel that Obama may well share at least some of Wright’s view.
We did see, however, his numbers dip sharply after the first Wright media firestorm. His denunciation of his former pastor may settle in with voters as the shock of Wright’s statements Monday before Washington’s National Press Club wears off.
Or people may conclude that Obama was lying about knowing how out there Wright really could be.
Or they may conclude that every candidate has problems, and big issues trump such matters.
The polls are all over the place in Indiana, with Clinton anywhere from tied with Obama to 10 points ahead.
Obama’s extreme turbulence, of course, is all due to the Wright Stuff. The freshman Illinois senator’s purported friend put a couple of torpedoes into his candidacy in a way that probably no one else could. There’s a lot of delicious speculation about what Wright might do next. My guess, from a fair amount of experience around black Democratic politics? He does nothing much.
Isn’t it interesting how the biggest problems for Barack Obama are coming not from the right, but the left?Consider. Without Bittergate, prompted by an activist blogger/maxed-out financial supporter of Obama writing on the pro-Obama Huffington Post, Obama was moving up in Pennsylvania. Consider. Without his pastor, who supposedly has devoted his life to promoting black people, Obama is moving up in Indiana and North Carolina, enough to squeeze the remaining life out of the Hillary Clinton candidacy. For fans of irony, this campaign has it all.What Wright, who was clearly something of a crank – and it ain’t like I don’t know a lot of folks like that, on both ends of the spectrum – is trying to do is quite obvious. Extend his 15 minutes of fame and make himself the new Al Sharpton. And he has a new book to sell. Color me shocked.
Another great irony here is how Hillary Clinton is getting a free ride for her own very real, not at all tangential, ties to radical politics. Famed ’60s radical Tom Hayden, who knows his radical politics like the back of his hand, points out that Hillary actually worked for the chairman of the Black Panther Party when he was on trial for murder. This was when she was a Yale law student. She later went to work for a Berkeley law firm run by avowed Communists, which made a practice of defending the Black Panthers.
What’s particularly interesting to me about this is that Hillary did this at the same time that the Black Panthers murdered a friend of my family. In 1970, they kidnaped Judge Harold Haley, who I met many times as a kid, while he was presiding over the trial of George Jackson. Haley had been appointed to the bench five years earlier by Governor Pat Brown, who built much of modern California. Haley was a good man who was giving the Panthers a fair trial. They ended up blowing his head off with a shotgun.
So it was very clear to me that there was something very wrong with the Black Panthers. And any adult who romanticized them as much more than politically gussied-up thugs suffered from a very serious lapse in judgment. Yet there was Senator Clinton. Not 40 years later with some ex-Panther.
But there – in real time – while this stuff was taking place. And yet we hear nothing about this in the media, from the right, or from the Republican Party.
I enjoy Mr. Bradley’s writing flair; it must match that of his Obama Cheerleader’s outfit. Please note there is NO “rebound” at this time; this article seems to be written in the hope of creating such.
Here’s the thing. Bush is going to be gone. People will reazlie that, even Democrats; the spell will lift. Every Bush-hater I know who wanted Hillary is now going to vote for McCain, because they do not trust Obama. Your man is going to get the nomination, and the Democrats are going to be destroyed. I would lament this situation but for the fact that people who fail to make the inference of what of reality must be reflected in politics probably shouldn’t have a major party of their own in the world’s only imperialist death star of racism. O woe, you are f-cked.
Look at the numbers, my friend.
The Rasmussen tracking poll, run by a Republican, shows Obama has bottomed out.
CBS as well.
And so on …
Another stupid poll. The wise men (whose names are kept secret) say that to win in a damned island like Guam, with seven votes is a very bad sign. Seven, like seven seals of The Revelation of St. John, mean terrible disasters for Obamus and his followers. What disasters exactly they don’t want to tell. So there will be very exciting surprises soon.
Another interesting take on this issue:
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=26337
…one wonders at the vanity of an author who needs to reply repeatedly to his work….
When did John McCain become the great unstoppable wonder? While all the conservatives are trying to point out flaws in Obama they should be spending as much time worrying about all the flaws in Old Johnny boy.
I dunno. It just depends on when this breaks. If this story has substance, either he loses to Hillary, or he loses to the Republican nominee.
http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/05/04/texas-caucus-fraud/#comment-223591
I have noticed from the Maryland primary that Barack Obama and the Obama campaign are two different entities, with two distinctly different messages.
H/T realclearpolitics
For some folks, I see that this is kind of like writing on the Daily Kos that John McCain is a serious guy with a good chance of being the next President …
The problem with democrats is that they will abandon their principals and modify their standards no matter how flawed their candidate turns out to be. It is for this reason democrats cannot be trusted because they will compromise themselves to appease everyone.
To Valerie:
You are right: “either he loses to Hillary, or he loses to the Republican nominee”.
For a simple reason: differently of Hermaphroditic Obama or Valkyrie Hillary, old McCain has positive political and economics program. His adversaries have only completely negative ambition and cynicism.
“And yet we hear nothing about this in the media, from the right, or from the Republican Party.”
And why should you hear anything from the Repubs on Hillary about this? If Obamites are so worried why can’t they get the message out themselves…like you just tried to? Fact is, Repubs only wish to prolong this contest as long as possible…but Hillary is certainly no darling of theirs (or the media either). Obama is THE CHOICE of Repubs now as he has NO CHANCE of winning come November, but it’s not like they want to bury Hillary before the body is cold.
Billery will buy the nomination at the convention. Her neighbor has tons of money and would love to throw crack orgies in the Lincoln Bedroom. So at the Convention, Billery will ask a Super Delegate how much they want for their vote. Soros will reach into his bag-o-loot and another delegate for dollars signs up.
Nothing illegal about this. Nothing unusual about Democrats selling their vote either.
On an even more positive note, The convention will be a hoot. The best since ’68. Street riots featuring Code Pink vs ANSWER. Normal vs Save the Whales. MoveOn vs the Kossacks. I think there will be enough video to go around.
If we are real lucky, we can get the Hells Angles in to help the police maintain order.
When the dust settles, neither Ohhh….BAMA nor Shrillery will get the nomination. It will be somebody that the Demonrat Poonahs think can unite the Party.
algore? Maybe, he could put them all on his belly. Bloomberg? Unlikely since at the moment he is masquerading as a Republican. Not that Bloomie doesn’t change parties more often then Hillery changes tent suits.
Hillary did these things 40 years ago. Since then, she has done many other things. The idea that she would support the Black Panthers today is laughable. It’s questionable that she supported them then, in fact. What she did then could reasonably be chalked up to youthful idealism and naiveté.
If we’re going to talk about what people did as young adults, I’m sure there are plenty of distasteful things to bring up for all the candidates.
Barack handled the Wright thing abominably – in the present time, not 40 years ago. Either he was lying or he showed poor judgment. It doesn’t matter which.
But there – in real time – while this stuff was taking place. And yet we hear nothing about this in the media, from the right, or from the Republican Party.
I guess you don’t play poker, do ya Bill? I can’t speak for the media but as far as the right and Republican Party, there’s no need to play our cards until we find out who we’re playing against. I get the impression you’d like for us to get all that stuff out of the way now so it’s old news.
I don’t put much stock in the polls but I would not be surprised if Obama’s supporters
were in denialrebounded over the Wright issue. They’re kind of like the parents of a spoiled selfish child that tells the teacher.. “no, not my child, he wouldn’t do such a thing!”Ya’know back last Fall I was really depressed about the very likely possibility of our national security being turned over to a Democrat. Now, not so much. It’s actually looking like it’s a good time to be a Republican.
I think a lot of people are missing the issue with this Wright thing in terms of the GE. If Obama begins to recover from the Wright issue now after the second Wright flare up or later, the anti-Obama crowds may have overplayed the issue too soon.
Basically, Obama will be “vetted” before GE while Hillary (Penn vs. Clinton, molestation charges vs. Pastor) and Mccain (Bush-like policies etc) will be getting “vetted” during the GE.
Republicans really need Wright to seriously stick, because they know they have less on Obama (Wright and maybe some play off Rezko). Right now it’s a win win for them since it’s almost inevitable Obama wins. By attacking Obama, they keep nomination process going and run a GE election against him. So far the nomination process also hurts both candidates. Thus more votes for Republicans no matter what.
If Obama comes out on top, they have damaged him to bring him down a few levels. If Hillary comes out on top (which would cause an uproar if it’s not close), her negatives will be high enough for Republicans to character assasinate her with issues being ignored by Obama and the Mass Media.
Oh, the Texas Democratic caucuses. Where 1.1 million people turned out to participate. That’s a record, by a huge amount.
The Clintons made some noises about it, the Texas Democratic Party looked into it, and that was it.
>Valerie:
I dunno. It just depends on when this breaks. If this story has substance, either he loses to Hillary, or he loses to the Republican nominee.
http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/05/04/texas-caucus-fraud/#comment-223591
Michael Bloomberg quit the Republican Party last year. He’s an independent.
>Maybe, he could put them all on his belly. Bloomberg? Unlikely since at the moment he is masquerading as a Republican. Not that Bloomie doesn’t change parties more often then Hillery changes tent suits.
May 5, 2008 – 9:23 am
Who cares about Wright? He’s just another Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton wanna be.
Yeah, I play poker. I talk with the McCain campaign all the time. Not writing about it much at the moment, though I was leading with it every week when the Republicans had a race, and after when McCain was getting his messaging together.
They know who they’re playing against. That’s why they are attacking Obama all the time and ignoring Hillary.
>Texas Gal:
But there – in real time – while this stuff was taking place. And yet we hear nothing about this in the media, from the right, or from the Republican Party.
I guess you don’t play poker, do ya Bill? I can’t speak for the media but as far as the right and Republican Party, there’s no need to play our cards until we find out who we’re playing against. I get the impression you’d like for us to get all that stuff out of the way now so it’s old news.
Well, McCain’s not unstoppable and he and his people know that.
Still, he’s doing extremely well in a year when the incumbent Republican president has record low approval ratings and about 80% think the country’s on the wrong track.
That’s because he has a terrific persona and a strong brand.
>Andrew:
When did John McCain become the great unstoppable wonder? While all the conservatives are trying to point out flaws in Obama they should be spending as much time worrying about all the flaws in Old Johnny boy.
May 5, 2008 – 5:50 am
… Incidentally, the fact that the Black Panthers murdered a childhood friend of mine in the same time in which Hillary thought it would be cool to go work for them has more than a little to do with my concern about it.
“Michael Bloomberg quit the Republican Party last year. He’s an independent.”
My point exactly. Bloomie’s real party loyalty is to the Bloomberg party.
I am really having trouble thinking of a Democrat with the gravitis to reassemble the party after the Mile High train wreck. Mile High Mangle? Mile high mashup?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention
On a positive note (for the Demonrats), FDR won the nomination at a brokered convention.
Edwards maybe? He would be a dangerous opponent.
Jimmy Carter still has a term left. He for sure will win the terrorist vote.
This is the third recent article on Pajamas Media suggesting Obama has a chance in the general election, or that he has smooth sailing to the nomination.
It’s nonsense. He’s through.
Bill: If this is the case as you say:
They know who they’re playing against. That’s why they are attacking Obama all the time and ignoring Hillary.
Then why would you expect the right or the GOP to do this?
And yet we hear nothing about this in the media, from the right, or from the Republican Party.
I’m assuming the media is not on it because they’re gutless. Why isn’t Obama not all over it?
BTW, my sympathies. I’m sure it was a horrible time and a very disturbing memory.
I don’t expect it.
But it would be intellectually consistent.
And thanks for your sympathetic comment. His murder was very shocking.
Nobody said anything about smooth sailing. But does Obama have a reasonable chance of being the next President? Absolutely.
>John the Libertarian:
This is the third recent article on Pajamas Media suggesting Obama has a chance in the general election, or that he has smooth sailing to the nomination.
It’s nonsense. He’s through.
May 5, 2008 – 11:58 am
My goodness, a thread by “Bill Bradley” with many (most) posts BY “Bill Bradley.”
AHEM. “Have you no shame, sir?!”
Look, Obama was suposed to WALK AWAY with N.C., in part due to the non-free-thinking Black population.
THAT AIN’T HAPPENING. And THAT’S the news, in spite of all the “crystal-balling” in this lame article.
I was born a republican, but John McCain…get real. Remember how ‘well’ he did the last time he ran. After Bush, no worthwhile republican was going to run in 2008. So the choice comes down to the democrat voters. Will they elect Hillary or Obama to the White House. I believe it will be Obama. I have a small problem with that. Rightfully, the first African-American president should be the descendent of a slave.
Obama is the only one with the integrity we deserve.
McCain is back in the era around the Korean war, has untreated PTSD and hates women, even calls his own wife a “C^&$” at town hall meetings.
Hillary has been around the GOP too long- no integrity, shameless manipulation, inconguency, putting power over principle. (but I will vote for her over McSame)
I think the Dems should save some $$$ and just rerun (with permission of course) the same swift boat ads the GOP used on their own candidate in 2000. “Folks, this man is just a lil bit NUTS!!!”
I like that Bill B participates in his comment threads.
This is the first election I’ve tried to follow polls on more than a glancing basis. It’s not a simple or exact business. For instance, Rasmussen also reports that a week ago that Obama was even or slightly ahead when matched against McCain. The past couple days Obama is 3 and 4 points behind. He hasn’t rebounded in that poll.
I’ve heard pundits on the right bring up Hillary’s radical left connections. Obama himself hit back on that during the Stephanopoulos questioning on Ayers. But basically there is no reason yet for the right or for McCain to attack Hillary on that basis.
The most obvious person to do so is Obama, but he comes from a sixties radical milieu so he is way too vulnerable there.
Ed – I am at a loss to understand why you are troubled by the fact that the author of a BLOG mixes it up with his commenters. Isn’t that one additional positive feature that distinguishes blogs from mainstream media?
As of today, the average of all major polls shows the following:
Obama 46.2
Clinton 44.7
Of course you know that the democratic nominee isn’t selected by voters in any event, but by delegates, according to their own in-house (controlling) rules.
Please do not believe the polls
here. They are strategically designed to distract and deceive us. This is all false reporting. Republicans along with the media spin data to deceive hoping that Obama will not be the nominee. They are scared to death of him and know that no matter what the circumstances are, Obama is undefeatable. Repubs have far more dirt on Hillary that they are salivating to release. They are dying for Hillary to be the nominee so that they can bloody her character. If per chance Obama does not get the nomination, I would hope that they destroy her. She thinks that she is above destruction and feels entitled to the presidency which is one reason she will NOT be the nominee. Of course after her character is asassinated, McCain moves right into the presidency. Most people that I know will refuse to vote if either Hillary or McCain are the nominees and will also change their party to Independent. New registrants have also decided to stay home and never participate in elections again. This is bad for the Dems. Wake up America…this process is not democrat. Also what Bill Clinton does is stump at small rural venues to small groups and whispers to them…”Don’t vote for the Black guy.” he is despicable and a counterfeit. Anybody Black or White that votes for Hillary deserves what they get…a NUCLEAR War, escalated gas prices, polarization of races, polarization of parties, more foreclosures than ever,failed health care, divided House, lies, lies, and more lies. Wake up!!!
Only an idiot would vote for mccain. Who else would vote for an old man who can’t remember who the terrosist are, and no idea how the economy works. Great president and commander in chief, another George Bush.
A vote for Hillary is a divided country, another 9/11, greed, higher oil prices, failed health insurance, no jobs. Lies. Just imagine the invasion of Iran. She said she’d “nuke” them but on Sunday she toned it down by saying she’d obliterate them. Bi-polar, psychotic woman of war. By the way Latinos, blue collar, small town people, Catholics, Jews, Blacks…she dislikes them all. Don’t fall for her political strategies you witness in the media. It is all by design to deceive and the media is complicit in the process in order to help her win the nomination. This is so that they can assassinate her character with an exponential number of scandals. Once they slam her then McCain will easily win. It is by design people. Wake up! She pretends she cares by hugging little children, shaking hands with everyone, smiling incessantly, drinking like a man, pretending she’s not elitist, all sickening and disengenuous behaviors. A true politician not to be trusted on any level. Google Hillary’s Christmas Tree in The Blue
Room and The Family/Fellowship. This will tell you a great deal about her as a person. She pretends to be a Christian. Also check out Paul vs. Clinton, Whitewater, Travelgate, Cattlegate, Ron Brown, Vince Foster, Huma, Uiversal Health Care (when she was first lady, and The Rose Law Firm. Now she’s trying to deceive the African American community by conducting a pseudo-investigation of the Sean Bell murder in New York. She did absolutely nothing when it happened. Now since she is losing she is trying to gain the Black vote which she has lost forever. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. My African American friends and associates have said “Never Again.” They despise both she and her husband and will never trust them.
Who but an idiot would vote for an old man who can’t remember who the terrorist are, no idea of how the economy works and and what it takes to keep it running. Sounds like another George Bush (can’t take another four years of that). The Republican Party has really hit rock bottom to back this clown.
Ah, the screaming of the Obamabots. I love that sound.
“ginger”,
FYI, Marty “C*NT questioner” Parrish was a Huffington Post plant at the press conference.
PLEASE STOP SPREADING YOUR FALSEHOODS.
“Hap Hazard”, Thanks for proving my point; if indeed The Obamboozler is “leading” at this moment by only 1.5% in the polls, that is truly a shock as compared to his double-digit lead earlier. Such a spread means “we don’t know” in the crystal-balling field of polling.
“shundee”, A vote for either Democratic Party candidate is a vote for SOCIALISM LITE. Though you write over and over about “don’t be deceived or distracted” (the latter being a favorite of The Obamboozler himself!), you seem to be oblivious to this fact. No, McCain may not be an ideal opponent, he is miles ahead of the two other scoundrels.
There is always an ideological crank …
> Ed Wallis:
My goodness, a thread by “Bill Bradley” with many (most) posts BY “Bill Bradley.”
AHEM. “Have you no shame, sir?!”
Look, Obama was suposed to WALK AWAY with N.C., in part due to the non-free-thinking Black population.
THAT AIN’T HAPPENING. And THAT’S the news, in spite of all the “crystal-balling” in this lame article.
May 5, 2008 – 3:09 pm
Actually, John McCain is a great American.
Plus, he was in the Navy.
>D. Godanchev:
I was born a republican, but John McCain…get real. Remember how ‘well’ he did the last time he ran. After Bush, no worthwhile republican was going to run in 2008. So the choice comes down to the democrat voters. Will they elect Hillary or Obama to the White House. I believe it will be Obama. I have a small problem with that. Rightfully, the first African-American president should be the descendent of a slave.
May 5, 2008 – 4:42 pm
Thank you.
However, Obama was up 1 in yesterday’s Rasmussen poll against Clinton. He’d fallen behind there in recent days. (Proprietor Scott Rasmussen is a Republican.) He’s also coming back up against McCain, who he leads in other national polls. Rasmussen is one of the most conservative pollsters with regard to Obama. Which is probably good, since any black guy running for president has a problem with regard to what people tell pollsters and what they do in the privacy of their own voting experience.
Odd as it may seem to some, this ex-national merit scholar (and I know the PC crowd trashes the national merit program, so you don’t need to get into that) can both read and count.
Incidentally, I write everything on my own property, New West Notes, as in newwestnotes.com. I don’t write the headlines here.
The headline I submit every Sunday night here, for Monday AM publication, is Monday Morning Quarterback.
What shows up here is what shows up.
>huxley:
I like that Bill B participates in his comment threads.
This is the first election I’ve tried to follow polls on more than a glancing basis. It’s not a simple or exact business. For instance, Rasmussen also reports that a week ago that Obama was even or slightly ahead when matched against McCain. The past couple days Obama is 3 and 4 points behind. He hasn’t rebounded in that poll.
Raleigh, N.C. — Few problems were reported Tuesday as voters cast ballots in presidential and state primaries that were expected to break turnout records. State elections director Gary Bartlett said turnout was “steady … not tremendously heavy.”
RUH-ROH, looks like no 20-POINT LEAD OVER HILLARY CLINTON any more. Gee, Bwill Bwadley…I’ve never heard “ideological crank” used as a debative argument against me, but from you, I’ll take it as a “thank you nod” from an immature mind.
One would have thought that the “moderation” of these posts would have offered “management” at a minimum the opportunity to have prevented this author from further embarassing himself.
America will eventually elect a black man as President, but not this black man. The next President will either be Hillary or McCain. Those thinking that Obama will be elected President are dilusional.
Hillary was raised in a middle-class family in the middle of a state in the middle of America in the middle of the last century.
From that classic suburban childhood in Park Ridge, Illinois, Hillary went on to become one of America’s foremost advocates for children and families; an attorney twice voted one of the most unethical in America; a First Lady of Arkansas who helped transform the schoolsto the state that they are in today; a bona fide war hero; a bestselling “ghosted” author; a First Lady for America who helped transform that role into dishonor, becoming a chump for health care and families at home, and a champion of women’s rights and human rights around the world – except for unborn children, against whom she took her stand.
Since her wind-breaking election to the United States Senate, Hillary has been a steadfast advocate for middle-class families, working fruitlessly to help create jobs, expand children’s health care and abortion, and protect Social Security from privatization.
As the Senator representing New York after 9/11, Hillary has fought to strengthen our approach to homeland security and to improve our communications and intelligence operations.
As the first New Yorker ever named to the Senate Armed Services Committee, Hillary, though she voted for the War, and has stated her desire to wage nuclear war on Iran, has been a tough critic of the administration’s bungling of Iraq and a fierce advocate for proper equipment, health benefits, and treatment for military families.
obama is pushing a bill through the senate that will give a percentage of OUR money to the UN, lets the UN courts supersede our own and bans our second ammendment of our constitution, he is an enemy of the United States.