Election Day 2012: Don’t Count Out Romney
Silver has argued that it is highly unlikely that a candidate who is 3 points behind in a very highly polled race (e.g., Romney in Ohio) can win that state. But in 2010, Harry Reid won his re-election to the Senate by more than 5 points, though the polls (and there were many of them) all pointed to a 2-3 point defeat for the majority leader. Silver also missed on the Colorado Senate race in 2010 and was behind the curve in predicting the GOP wave in the House that year.
Surprises happen. Polls can be wrong, particularly when votes are cast over a period of a month or more in some states, and when the percentage of those who respond to polls has dropped to an all-time low (below 10% in human phone surveys; below 5% in automated surveys). Many national and state polls have samples with a large edge for Democrats compared to Republicans, similar to the voting results in 2008 when Obama won nationally by 7.3%.
The latest CNN poll, which shows a 49-49 national tie, contains 41% Democrats and 29% Republicans; the only way you can get a tie is with Romney holding a big edge among independents (59% to 37%). Count me as highly skeptical of both the party ID split in the CNN poll and the size of Romney lead among independents.
For Romney to prove the pollsters wrong, there are a few paths to victory. If he carries North Carolina (quite likely, though not certain) and Florida (where he is favored but could lose if there is an Obama national win by 2% or 3%), then he would be at 235 Electoral College votes and would need to find 35 more to get to 270 (and 34 to get to 269, which would almost certainly be enough if the Electoral College race were tied at 269 and the election were tossed to the U.S House). The path to victory has increasing degrees of difficulty by state, with Virginia and its 13 Electoral College votes the easiest (polls are about even on average) to get Romney to 248.
Obama is ahead by 2 points or less in New Hampshire (4) and Colorado (9). Winning both would get Romney to 261. Obama’s lead is about 3 points on average in Ohio (18), Nevada (6), and Iowa (6). Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16) , Wisconsin (10), and Minnesota (10) are all showing Obama with a 4 to 5 point lead on average, though individual polls in each state have Romney either tied or 1 point ahead. Wisconsin might be the best shot for Romney of the four given the strength of the get-out-the-vote effort put together by Governor Scott Walker. In Pennsylvania, the Romney campaign and its super PAC backers are heavily outspending Obama in the last week.
At the moment, the Intrade betting line favors Obama by just over 2 to 1. Nate Silver’s model suggests the odds are more like 6 to 1 or 7 to 1 against Romney. I would take the Romney side with Silver’s odds if he offered them (which of course he does not), and I think the Intrade numbers better reflect the current state of the race. Obama is favored, but it should not be a total shock if Romney wins and carries Ohio to do it. I do not share the optimism of George Will, Michael Barone, or Dick Morris. These pundits see Romney winning comfortably with over 300 Electoral College votes. These forecasts suggest the current national and state polls are off by 3 to 5 points, if not more.
I think the oversampling problem exists, but the average error is not that high. The Obama team is counting on a national voting sample that is only 72% white. Even if Romney wins white voters by 20%, he will lose by more than 2% overall if Obama win by 60% among the other 28% of voters. A turnout with 75% white voters, and the same preference splits, produces a tie in the popular vote, which might not be enough for Romney given the Electoral College math. Romney may need to win by more than 20% among white voters, or hold Obama’s edge among minority voters below 60%, if the final split is 75-25 white/minority or below 75%.
More: Romney Rallies with Huge New Hampshire Crowd
In a fair election, Romney would win. It would be close, but he would win.
This won’t be anything close to a fair election.
No, this attitude is all wrong. Romney is tied/beating a sitting President, he’s gonna win!
The media will be rife with “Obama is Winning!” bullsh*t all day so you won’t bother to vote after work.
And do you really think a magical hug from Disney Princess Chris Christie will change four years of staggering failure..?
It’s the shameless cheating from the Chicago Machine writ large that worries me.
If it worries you enough that you decide not to vote, you are playing right into their hands. They want you discouraged.
Yep. I don’t know about Ohio, but Twitter feeds are reporting that in PA, GOP inspectors are being physically removed from Philly polling places and that one GOP inspector was physically assaulted. Romney’s lawyers supposedly in court as we speak to get an injunction. Also, Black Panthers are back in Philly for round 2 of suppression of the GOP vote. Fox News, I understand, picked up the story. And if all that’s not enough voter suppression for you, it’s being estimated that up to 70% of our military personnel who requested a ballot have not received one.
Dems cheat.
The court forced those folks to be reinstated, but it’s terrible to think they ever left in the first place.
“I’m an attorney for the Corleone family. These men are private detectives hired to protect Vito Corleone. They are licensed to carry firearms. If you interfere you’ll have to appear before a judge in the morning and show cause..!”
No. LBJ said politics ain’t beanbag. Romney will lose because he didn’t play for keeps.
Bronco Bama did. All is fair in love, war and politics. If the (D)’s win because they cheat better, the (R)’s need to work on their cheating skills.
The Republican party needs a complete make over. Toss the entire upper echelon.
– rain tomorrow. Or not.
It will not even be close.
Romney will Thunder Obama out of office and it will be a MANDATE the left cannot argue with – even though they will.
It’s so easily discernible: MR cannot win; and a good thing it is, for, as a lame-duck, Obama would pardon many unworthies.
But don’t lose heart, for, Biden will finish the term, . . .
A significant benefit of the end of this election cycle is to not have to confront any more of the endless articles propounding limitless bulls**t about bogus polls and what they purport to show. We have become so transfixed by the obviously rigged polls and their false claims that are intended to engender political behavior that many of us act as if we were Pavlov’s dogs. But, then, that’s the whole point. If I never encounter another article about such push polls it would be too soon to suit me.
I see Romney winning comfortably. Had there been less cheating, Romney would have won by an even bigger margin.
America really needs to do something drastically as regards a) cheating at the polls b) biased press which doesn’t report news which is adverse to Obozo c) judges who are considered liberal or conservative rather than neutral.
Right now, in my view, the US is a flawed democracy. Its up to her people to correct these flaws before some ruthless thug like Obozo converts the US into a quasi-dictatorship. Wake up, USA.
I think a lot of it has to do with the schools. For decades now, kids have been indoctrinated in “Socialism-is-good, USA-is-bad.” It just keeps getting worse in the public schools and the college education departments which churn out ideologues as teachers. Home schooling is great, but a lot of parents can’t afford to do that. We’ve got to do a lot more to take the schools back.
And regarding the media, it seems that most of the journalism majors choose that field because they want to “Save the World,” not because they want to report the facts. That has to change too. The MSM is losing viewers and readers, but they still have way too much influence over the less-informed.
Day by Day is a must see this morning. 3 simple pictures say more then all the words printed in the last week. When Chris is hot, he is HOT. The man flirts with genius.
Give the people light and they will find their own way.
One thing Obama supporters do well is cheat at election time. So don’t be surprised when there is intimidation, dead people voting, ballot box tricks,, military ballots missing or never dellivered, machines that are rigged to vote for O, and Black Panthers and NAACP members intimidating the crap out of us. What else is new? These bastards have earned the ass kicking they are going to get today which I hope and pray will be overwhelming. If not 4 more years of the Moron.
Tommy,
I agree with you almost completely. Just want to add that something must be very wrong in the USA if they a) can permit such cheating to happen b) vote for such a hard core crook like Hussein Obozo c) permit their press to distort news d) permit judges and moderators to be BIASED.
Don’t you agree ??
Cheating is not new. I remember in 2000, that was the year Gore sent down Daley to teach South Florida how it’s done. That entire day we were hearing about questionable tactics. Of course most of those stories vanished when the race went so close. Point is, the more people actually vote, the tougher time they will have pulling out a cheat.
If you decide not to vote because you think they will steal the race, you are helping them succeed with your silence.
Just like week we were all sure of victory..now we are “don’t be surprised if he wins”. depressing.
NO MORE YEARS – TOP 20 REASONS WHY A REGIME CHANGE IS IMPERATIVE. Here are the Top 20 reasons a regime change is imperative, now: 1. $5 Trillion in New Debt – By the end of FY 2012, Obama had added $5.3 trillion to the National Debt – almost one-third of the total ($16 trillion). He rolled up more debt in three years than the first 41 presidents … READ MORE: http://bwcentral.org/2012/11/no-more-years-top-20-reasons-why-a-regime-change-is-imperative/
What kind of tone is that to have up as the lead headline on Election Day at PJMedia???
I feel like conservatives are preparing us for a defeat. I have felt this the last few days. Headlines like these; references to large crowds at rallies, the PJ columnists who cited “Romney/Ryan” at the top of the ticket as being a boon, talk of intensity, etc. – all hallmarks of a lost campaign.
The major national polls all reported ties or near ties in their predictions, meaning they don’t know. PJmedia publishes this article as a way of centering their pre-election output — it’s something they can point to if Obama wins. They do this because, like the pollsters, they don’t know.
This I do know: If Obama wins this election he will, long before the next four years are up, wish that he hadn’t. Not only is he basically incompetent at anything beyond the “eye and ear candy aspects” of his job, he is also corrupt and lies often and ineptly. The nature of the Benghazi coverup is flapping out there in the breeze for everyone to see. As an attempt to hide a scandal it is laughably bad — even a moderately OK politician ought to be able to do better than this. Obama is not very likely to weather successfully the storms of a lame-duck second-term presidency.
Something also to be happy about is that clearly Obama has not turned out to be some sort of “liberal Reagan”, driving the US political baseline well to the left. Reagan’s first term was wildly successful, leading to a huge landslide victory while running for a second term. If something like this was in store for Obama’s second election I’m sure the polls, however flawed they may have become, would have detected it by now.
First id like to say is great job OBAMA, n secondly i would like to say this is the most RACIST SITE EVER, now if lying, dumb arrogant ROMLIAR would hv won nobdy up here wud be sayin someone cheated yall ALL should be assumed of yourselves, but judgment day is cmn and yall hv to answer for it, read yur BIBLES, and treat ppl accordingly, oh yeah n im white as the driven snow, so dont hate, cuz i cn recognize intolerance a mile away,,,,, DONT BE MAD BCUZ YALL COUNTED YUR CHICKENS BEFORE THEY HATCHED!!!!!! GOD KNEW WHO TO PUT BK N THT POSITION, A KIND, LOVN PPL PERSON, HE DIDNT WANT A LYING SACK OF SCUM, THT TRIES TO LIE HIS WAY IN A WHITE HOUSE, SORRY AS ROMNEY IS, AND MUCH AS HE GOT CAUGHT IN LIES, THE ONLY REASON HALF OF U VOTED FOR HIM WAS BCUZ HE WHITE, N THTS SAD, BUT TO BAD A BLACK MAN, AN HONEST MAN IS N THT WHITE HOUSE, yal rather hv a corrupt man n the seat, jus so a blk man wouldnt b bk n office, wat yall fail to realize is tht, the REPUBLICANS , ALWAYS STOPPED him whn he was trying to mk this economy better, half of everything he tried to do they stopped, maybe yall nd to do yir hmwrk bfore yall judge n condemn someone,,,, GOOOOOOO OOOOOBBBBBAAAAMMMMAAAAAA,,
Agree that the headline sounds like a “We’re down by 17 with two minutes to play, but we’re close to the goal line and we could recover two onside kicks,” type of attitude — i.e. don’t get your hopes up for today when the Ohio returns start coming in. Strangely pessimistic so early on Election Day (heck, the biased big media exit polling of 2004 has yet to even rear its ugly head today to try and depress Republican late-day turnout, and the vibe from the headline here is already to expect an Obama win).
Central fl: 300% larger turn out over 2010 at my polling place today. Happy determined faces. R&R in a landslide.
The top lines of the polls are completely screwy.
Republican turnout is going to, at worst, equal the Democrats. I suspect actual turnout will be something like R+3. Romney is leading independents by double digits, and has been for weeks now.
With higher enthusiasm and domination of the independents I don’t see how Romney loses. But I guess in 15 hours or so we can all stop speculating about it.
Well, in PA, the Judges of Elections (all elected Democrats) have kicked out republican-aligned election monitors from AT LEAST all of the polling locations in Philadelphia, and have recruited the Black Panthers to start harrassing people again.
So PA looks like a lost cause.
STOP LYING,, ,,,,, THEY ND TO RENAME THIS SITE TO: ‘LETS HEAR THE LIES N HATERS SPEAK’ THIS IS A BUNCH OF BS THT IVE EVER HEATD, I SEE Y YALL VOTED FOR MITT LYING BUTT, CUZ YALL JUS LIKE HIM JUST GO FIND SMBDY ELSE TO RUN N THE GROUND,,, WRECKERS, YALL ALL PTOB LONELY ANY HOW
That you use ‘feel’ insttead of ‘think’ is revealing, it’s a freudian slip very common among leftists, you troll.
*A respone to Wes’s comment.
If Obama wins I’m going to join or start a group that advocates secession of Red states from Blue ones. The political differences between Leftists and Conservatives are an unbridgeable chasm that may eventually lead to a shooting war.
Will conservatives simply lie down, accept defeat and become part of the collective? I hope not.
I hope we actually value our individual liberty and free market system enough to actually fight for it.
I for one am sick of the Leftists who want to turn us all into slaves of the federal government. Under a Liberal government you will be one of two types of slave; a parasite dependent on government for everything or a wage slave whom the government drains of money for the parasites. Either way you will not be free.
So, buy guns and ammo now while you still can.
Eric, we are still approximately 50-100 years away from the shooting war. Home pulls hard, and we are reluctant to give it up…but eventually we will leave: Australi or our ancestral homelands on the continent are my best guesses. Sure the old continent has its issues as well, but it truly is home.
When I was in my twenties I could see that we were heading for a “Petronius Satyricon” type of culture in North America, but I thought it was at least 200 to 300 years away. Now that I have just turned 60, it’s all right here in front of me and out in the open — my several centuries turned out to be more like 40 years.
I suspect your 50-100 years until the shooting starts will turn out to be more like 10 to 20. What follows will be something like the Roman Empire’s Principate (which replaced the Roman Republic). Some of the outward forms of the US Constitution may be preserved, but with no more fair and un-scripted elections as we understand the concept. Technical progress may continue for a while afterwards — the Roman Empire, after all, continued to grow materially in wealth and territory after the Republic disappeared — but eventually (several centuries later, perhaps?) that will dwindle away also because robust material progress requires flexible and responsive government. The dark ages that follow won’t be the final word either, of course — nothing lasts forever…
A vote for Obama is a vote for an American Augusto Pinochet. If reports of the deluge of EPA anti-energy regulation are true then the eocnomy is headed for Spanish and Greek levels of unemployment. Obama will then attempt to impose emergency methods at which point the military will step in and remove him. In retrospect the Republic commited suicide in 2008. We have reached the point where we will have to destroy the Republic to save it.
If the South won the Civil War we could have had that. I figure the North would be in dire straights (out of control taxes, welfare to those capable of working but too lazy etc) and the South would be prosperous-(no forced unionization. less taxes and freedom to own a gun.) When I retire I’m taking my forced on me union and the pension I get down south and spending it there.First purchase- a gun.I will only be giving to charities in states that support Conservative canidates.
Don’t Count Out Romney????
I agree! And, what loss of momentum?
It has been well-documented how the polls are assuming close to ’08 Dem turnout, while Gallup and Rasmussen both show Party ID and enthusiasm favors Republicans.
This is about the most depressing article I’ve read about the election here.
“Don’t count Romney out. It isn’t over until the fat lady sings (I didn’t know Oprah sang). Don’t count your chickens etc.”
About the only thing missing was “Don’t forget John Major was behind in all the polls too.”
I am not optimistic. I think early voting has changed the rules of the election game in the same way that blitzkrieg changed the rules of war in 1940. The Democrats count on exploiting low information, generally new voters, by registering them early and getting them to the polls. Without early voting many low information voters don’t take the time to go stand in line. Early voting also locks in the vote of people who may have been swayed by the debates and Benghazi to vote for Romeny. I give Romeny a 40% chance of winning the national popular vote but there is no way the he can overcome the early voting lead built up by Obama in key states.
I have to agree with Silver on the outcome. Obama’s national popular vote threshold for victory is 48.5%. I base this on the 2004 election where Kerry lost Ohio by 100,000 votes. The same thing could happen this year except Obama carries Ohio by a narrow margin. The only interesting question remaining for a political junkie is could Obama win relection with the losest percentage of the popular vote in a two party race? we will know tomorrow morning.
Please note! Blitzkrieg did not win WWII.
But it did win the campaign. The Republicans won’t figure it out until 2016 if there is a 2016 election. (See comment above)
Why would anyone pay attention to this author?
It seems he operates in the same bubble as the pollsters do. He may quibble around the edges with polling, but he seems quite content with the methodology. He largely accepts their assumptions. These guys LIKE POLLING, they BELIEVE in polling, and they want to tell everyone the outcome, BEFORE A SINGLE VOTE IS CAST.
Articles like this serve no purpose other than to try and dispirit our side.
I DO NOT WANT TO LIVE IN THE DEMOCRAT PARTY’S AMERICA.
Just look at the two party’s constituencies. There ARE two Americas. One is the party of normal working and producing America. The other is the party of elitist socialists, organized crime unions, race hustlers, and non producers.
One party disowns the extremists that try to tag along. The other holds their extremists as their leaders.
One party speaks the plain truth. The other makes the lie their clarion call.
One party prints money and calls it wealth creation. The other stands for fiscal responsibility.
One party actually desires to keep America safe. The other pretends their is no enemy.
We could go on and on.
This country either chooses the right path today or we will need to form a new nation.
All Caps: the last refuge of those who have no semblance of a rational, fact-based argument.
Did you happen to notice anything after the Headline?
Rich:
You think too much. Analysis paralysis. Just remember fear freezes, faith frees.
I am stunned. For days I have veen reading and hearing of Romney surging, of GOP grass roots enthusiasm un reported by the MSM and ignored by MSM pollers. Here on PJM, talk of A GOP victory was all over the page, without too much “wait and hope, or if only….” Now, suddenly the top of the page article this am is a “well, maybe maybe not, let’s all hope and prepare for the worst.”
OK, I read and reread the post, and I respect the article writer’s effort to warn us off of enthusiam.
But I am begining to wonder if the Alternative Main Stream Media is just as misleading as the MSM ; “just read us here and be valiated.”
Just what I needed to lift me up this day.
Well, all I can say is that I live in a red state, and they clearly did not prepare for the turnout. At 0730 the polling booths were full and I had to sit at a table (along with 5 other civically-minded citizens) to vote. When I turned in my ballot the lady said they didn’t anticipate a turnout like this because there had been so many early voters already.
The poll average of which this writer speaks has been skewed by many polls that are greatly overestimating the Democrats’ turnout in this election versus that of the Republicans. Heck, the last CNN poll even had a +11 Democratic advantage in its sample, which is utterly laughable. Obama’s turnout advantage in 2008 was only +7.
Mitt Romney will win today and here’s why:
Both national polls and swing state polls have consistently shown that Mitt Romney enjoys a substantial lead among independent voters. So, the only way that the Democrats can overcome that is to replicate their +7 turnout advantage of 2008. That simply isn’t going to happen. Gallup performed a 9,000-voter survey just over a week ago that showed that the Republicans will actually have a 3-point edge over Democrats in voter turnout today. A 9,000-voter survey has a very small margin of error. So I expect that not only will Mitt Romney win, but he will win comfortably.
Please think before forming opinions. Self identified Republicans are down in polls. Self identified Independents are up. Self identified Independents prefer Romney by a decent margin. What does all this tell you? Democrats have an edge in poll internals because Republicans are calling themselves Independent.
There is an 89.43 percent chance that Nate Silver is an idiot. So, he predicted an Obama win in 2008. Who didn’t?
How pathetic is it when the public is so fickle, so lacking in any foundation of values and principles, that a major storm a few days prior to an election could sway their opinion one way or another.
Helping with get-out-the vote and praying like mad.
Whoever writes this needs to find a new career and a life, in 2010 the media, the exit polls, pelosi, reid, obama and the dnc discounted the tea party, the independents and working people(we vote later as we have to earn a living); and we ignore and obfuscate the exit poll takers WE do not trust the quisling media, or fox news in form or another their all in the tank, the press no longer represents or champions the American people,they serve their political and financial masters interests only.
My aunt from PA called me to tell me to vote for Obama. I never voted since I live in California (the densely democratic state) but for the first time, I am proud to say that I voted. I told my aunt I have to pick Romney for so many reasons. She technically accused me and the rest who voted for republican as proud, mistreating the poor, atheist who will be punished by God one day for not picking Obama. she is the one who believes that suferring is part of life. Haven’t we got enough punishments in forms of taxes, affirmative actions and other things that disguises as social help? There is not point of arguing with these kinds of mentality.
I am the arrogant niece, friend and coworker who hates the poor in the eyes of my democrats circle. I think Nate silver is my aunt’s family member and not me.
So that is how they view us, the one who works hard to earn a living and do not believe and eternal government help, a PROUD, ARROGANT, GODLESS INDVIDUALS WHO WORSHIP MONEY. My answer is oh well…I do not need your approval to live my life.
To all those posting feelings of surprise, disappointment, etc about the tenor of this piece, I would say, yes, a week or so ago there was a palpable feeling of hope. The two major polls were tilting toward us, with Gallup giving a very solid margin (5-7 point lead). That lead shrunk as Obama gained the momentum after the hurricane. (Insane, but true.) Whether the momentum shifts back to our side, or continues for Obama, who knows. We’ll find out in a matter of hours. What is true, though, is that no matter how the polls looked, our job has always been and will always continue to be, that of working as hard as we can to reclaim power. No one on Election Day should feel regret that they could have done more.
MAKE CALLS FROM HOME FOR MITT ROMNEY TO HELP GET OUT THE VOTE!
From the vantage point, of the average Scandinavian is that Obama is going to win. If not for anything else that’s a proof of Obamas half-digested socialistic ideas, Swedish style. Obama’s policies are flattering the well-fed and well-off working man in the Northern welfare-states. Well, the fact that the man is sort of black is on the winning side too.
Baehr is the same wuss who argued that Heather Wilson of New Mexico was a good candidate. His analysis has about as much credibility as his judgments about candidates. Not every article on P J Media is gospel, especially self-serving propaganda like this.
As of 10:00 p.m. eastern, I am totally despressed. Obama is going to win this and I just don’t understand why. Even with Obama’s auto 47%, couldn’t 3% of America be American. It is black attire for the remainder of the year and I will be in bed for unlimited days.
We are watching the end of America, not with a bang but with a whimper. Now we find out what Bronco Bama plans on giving to Pootie.
Can we count Romney out yet? (tee hee)