Obama Cozies Up to Japan
The spat could have gotten worse because Hatoyama’s party also pledged to end Japan’s refueling site in the Indian Ocean in support of NATO operations in Afghanistan. Yet both sides have stepped back in recent days. To his credit, the new leader in Tokyo has sought to ease tensions by pledging up to $5 billion over five years to the reconstruction of that war-torn nation. And for his part, President Obama has tried to placate the Japanese by saying this week that he would be honored to receive invitations to visit Hiroshima and Nagasaki sometime later in his presidency. The visits, which would be controversial both in the United States and Japan, would be the first for a sitting American president.
In truth, neither side wants a public rupture at this time. And how will the United States and Japan finally solve this matter? In a few days, both Obama and Hatoyama will agree to a year-long, top-to-bottom review of the alliance. By the time Mr. Obama returns to Japan next November, the alliance, which then will be a half century old, could look substantially different.
Japan, in all probability, will call the tune on the relocation of Futenma and the movement of some American forces off Okinawa. The flap has energized Japan to make changes to the relationship with the United States, seeking an “equal” role. The South Koreans also want to rebalance their treaty relationship with us, so we should not be surprised by Hatoyama’s similar theme.
Already, the Obama administration is signaling that it is open to change. “We depend on Japan as a stalwart ally on a whole host of global issues that we work on together and so I have both great affection for the Japanese people personally, but also understand the important strategic relationship that we have to continually nurture,” the president told NHK, Japan’s public broadcaster, this Tuesday. “I think that Prime Minister Hatoyama understands that the core fundamentals of this relationship are unchanged.”
The location of the Marines now based at Futenma is by no means a “core fundamental” of the alliance. The Japanese will get their way on the realignment of forces, even if they have to pay more to rebase troops. The essential point for them, however, is that the Chinese and North Koreans still threaten their nation.
Today, Japan depends as much on the U.S. alliance as it did during the Cold War, perhaps more. The Chinese are still sending their submarines surreptitiously into Japanese waters and publicly threatening to take islands under Japanese control. Beijing is stepping up its support of North Korea, which views Japan as a mortal enemy. In response, Tokyo will have to spend more on defense even as it tries to come to terms with the Chinese — and Americans will have to learn to adjust to a changing Japanese electorate.
After all, both countries have reason to accommodate the other. Together they face common adversaries on the Asian continent.
Orient-ation
East is East, and West is West;
If you are in Japan, which way
do you look to see the US ?
To see China ? Which is closer ?
Japan will not abandon the US, but
if the US abandons Japan, forcing
it to come to terms with China,
the Land of the Rising Sun will
learn to sing “The East is Red”,
the national anthem of the New
Greater South-East Asia Co-
Prosperity Sphere.
The US will then be in the position
which Imperial Japan once occupied:
Forced to pay a high price for
raw materials, or be denied them
entirely, if they are required for
military uses.
That was Casus Belli, then and now:
A just cause for war.
Why do I get the feeling that this will end badly? I’m glad Obama’s interested in talking to our friends for once, but after all those State Department debacles earlier this year, I get the feeling Obama is going to do something really stupid.
M. Report, yes, China is closer to Japan in a geographic sense, but the Chinese always find ways to push the Japanese closer to us.
myth buster, yes, this could end badly. Thanks for recognizing that.
The one saving grace is that Obama can be pushed around. And this is one situation where his preference for weak solutions could actually benefit us.
The realignment of the alliance has been coming for some time, but the current circumstances are not the best for it. The DPJ does not see China as the threat that the US and LDP do, and they are unlikely to boost military spending on anything except developing ways to respond to possible NK aggression. If anything, the DPJ will look for ways to reduce military spending.
M. Report, it was a cause of the war, but it was not a just cause. Also, this realignment would have little to do with raw materials the US needs as Japan just doesn’t have them. Unless we think of manga, anime, and wasabi as essential raw materials for our military.
As for Japan switching from a US-centered stance to something else, if the DPJ remains in power over the next couple of decades, I think Japan will increasingly abandon the US and embrace an economic pan-Asianism. In that, M. Record is quite right to point back to the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_East_Asia_Co-prosperity_Sphere
We know that Michelle wanted to go shopping in Tokyo.
If I recall correctly, the military bases on Guam are undergoing extensive expansion and upgrading to handle at least part of the shift in Asian troop locations. Do you know how this fits into the current picture?
tom, what about steel and electronics? Good thing our own steel industry isn’t completely dead, even if it has fallen dramatically from its heights.
The Japanese message is clear:
Reduce or eliminate American military support facilities to eliminate wars and imperialistic offensives in Asia/Middle East.
Trade is the 21st century game. Out with military power. Invest in technology and commerce, not weapons and wasteful resources.
The historical challenges that the USA has with Japan include more than just the A bombs or even civil/dual use of technology that the USA is wary of. Interesting article here, with a ground level view of old wounds in Okinawa – the sort of thing that must be addressed for progress…
http://www.counterpunch.com/mitchell11132009.html
… but is Obama aware of such grievances? Is he able to act at all?
tom, the longer the DPJ remains in power, the more time it will have to recognize the increasingly difficult nature of China. That, over time, should strengthen the alliance with us.
BBC, the 2006 deal contemplates that some of the Marines on Okinawa will be transferred to Guam. That deal will obviously be superceded by the review that Obama and Hatoyama just agreed to.
henry, thanks for the link. And to answer your question, Obama, our first President of the Pacific, is oblivious.
The Japanese would be fools to advocate disarmament right now. They can’t protect themselves because it is illegal for them to arm themselves sufficiently- that was a policy quite rightly forced on them after WWII, but the result is that they are dependent on us to protect them.
DPJ may not look at the Chinese as a “threat”, but the Chinese sure look at Japan as one. Regardless of what the folks in Japan think, the Chinese will never embrace them. Japan truly is Asian, but it’s also it’s own culture and has never played nice with the rest.
A blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while is what I’m taking from this article, in regards to our current blunderer-in-chief.
Who knew that Akihito is a muslim potentate? Obama, a loyal muslim, bows ONLY to muslim royalty!
We have not seen the end of history;
It remains true that gold will not
always get you good soldiers, but
good soldiers can always get you gold.
It does not follow that we will see
a repeat of the Pacific War, complete
with another Battle of the Coral Sea;
China’s first aircraft carrier may run
into a swarm of Japanese micro-war-bots
before it gets within range of its target.
The Kamikaze might have stopped the US Navy
the same way, except for a palm-sized bit of
1945 Hi-Tech known as the Proximity Fuse.
Trade builds ties to defeat war; A Sino-
Japanese alliance makes more sense than
a war between the two; Absent US power
projection, the Alliance will own SE Asia,
and the Pacific, eventually including Hawaii.
Two more:
1) Where does the US military get its
Integrated Circuits ?
2) What happened to the stockpiles of
strategic raw materials, including some
critical to fabricating ICs ?