Not Over Yet: Francois Hollande Faces National Assembly Elections
A second argument for a conservative rebound next month is that a socialist parliamentary victory would subject France to a one-party regime. The socialists and their allies would control the presidency, both houses of Parliament (the Assembly and the less consequential Senate), the government, almost all regional councils, most counties, and most big towns. They would, in line with France’s statist character, control the media, the academic sphere, and many of the most important industries even more tightly. Sarkozy declined to mention this throughout his campaign for reelection — another mistake of his. I have noticed that Nadine Morano, a Sarkozy archloyalist and a rising conservative star, started talking about it right after Hollande’s election.
A third argument is that Marine Le Pen, the National Front leader, and François Bayrou, the centrist maverick, may have lost some of their luster. Both declined to support Sarkozy on the presidential second round. Le Pen said her voters were free to act as they wished. Bayrou said that while he would vote for Hollande, he would allow his voters to decide for themselves. That ran against the wishes of most of their respective supporters. Most National Front voters switched to Sarkozy in order to defeat Hollande at any cost; most Bayrou voters supported Sarkozy or abstained. A new conservative leader with charisma, vista, and guts could certainly get them to “vote for France” or to “vote for democracy” in June.
Hollande’s toughest challenge is to make sense of his economic platform. The new French president is a follower of Keynes: he believes in state control, high taxes, and extended welfare. The fact that the global economy has undergone massive changes since the days of Keynes and that Barack Obama failed while implementing similar policies in the United States does not deter him. What he takes seriously, however, is the European Union, which will not allow for too much state control, and the euro, which does not allow for inordinate welfare spending. He can quit the EU and the eurozone as both the Far Left and the Far Right recommend, a move that would probably bring about a “Greek effect” on the French economy. Otherwise, he can abide by European rules, thus negating his platform altogether. Since both options are beyond him, he frantically insists for a drastic “production-oriented” and “people-oriented” revision in the European and euro policies.
His European partners may listen to him to a point. He may then tell the French that in order to overcome a very dangerous situation a broader coalition or even a national unity government is needed, and that a “socialist cum allies” parliamentary victory may help.
I rather gloomily expect the Socialists to do very well in the French Assembly elections. It seems to me that, with the election of Hollande, the French have made up their minds. They are four-square for “business as usual” and for continuing the perks of French life. These are of course teriffic but about as sustainable as the Titanic’s buoyancy after it clipped the iceberg. However the French don’t care and when the inevitable crash comes the ensuing chaos will be blamed on ______________ (fill in the blank) or whomever as long as it isn’t the French. (M. Hollande seems to already be preemptively grooming “Finance” as the villain.)
France, like most of Europe, seems gripped in the same sort of decadent ennui that pervaded the continent during the mid-1930′s. A stark and clearly identifiable danger is looming but everyone is too dessicated to care. And this time they don’t have the excuse of the memory of the the horrors of World War I to justify their lethargy.
yes, he will do quite well…France seems almost giddy over this election..and obama is right there offering handshakes and smiles..
i do not believe a country/government can be a caretaker of the masses that do not contribute to the wellbeing of the country, and exist.
“come into my web said the spider to the fly”…
you ignore that the last socialist government, Jospin as PM, DSK at the Finances, France had better results than Germany, in Growth, in employment, in diminishing the Debt
At the risk of using a thudding cliche, “That was then….This is now.” The last socialist government did not have to face the prospect of a large chunk of the EU going belly-up and the possible abandonment of the euro. The Germans have been easily utperforming the French for the last decade and it is their success, not that of the French, that has propped up the EU thus far. What will the French Socialist Party do when their brethern in Greece, Italy, Spain etc. demand another round of bailouts from the Union and an increasingly reluctant Germany? It will make for interesting times.
propped, hmm, but also benefitted the most, as Lebensraum for their merchandises
Their banks loans never were gratuitous to the Mediterranean club, money vs mercedes !
Another factor. Hollande may have declared war on the world of finance, but the world of finance may be about to deliver a pre-emptive strike.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greece-next-steps
Watch Greece and not France.
1. The pro-EU bailout parties combined do not have enough seats in parliament after the election to form a government, even if they combined.
2. The other parties cannot form a government. The biggest increases were parties of the far Left and far Right, including a new neo-Nazi party [with an ...interesting platform plank that specifically includes land mines].
3. The possibility of a grand coalition does not look good.
4. The Caretaker government cannot do anything substantive.
5. Procedurally, the earliest new elections can be held is June 10.
6. “…over the next two weeks, during a time when Greece will most likely not have an active government in place is the May 15th maturity of €430 million in international-law bonds whose holders have not agreed to the terms of the PSI and thus demand full payment… of money that Greece does not have.”
If Greece does default, it means it either leaves the Euro, or all the other PIIGS and others default and the EU and Eurozone is dead in either case. If the EU covers the payment, absent Greece fulfilling the conditions of the bailout [and they have not, and cannot absent a government at all; let alone a government willing to fulfill the conditions] it is the equivalent of the EU ganging up on Germany and mugging it, with a certainty it will happen again and again. Germany is the only source of funding possible, and if Germany does not leave the Eurozone over that, the Bundestag and Bundesbank will string Merkel up from a lamp post. If Germany leaves, the EU is dead. And everybody defaults. And Austria, Belgium, and France have all their banks collapse.
I expect that there will be a flood of capital heading our way from Europe ahead of this as the smart money bails. [a broker friend of mine told me this morning he is seeing early signs of this] It will be led by French capital, as Hollande is promising a 75% marginal tax rate on the “evil rich”. The optimists are assuming he was lying for campaign purposes. The optimists also assumed that Lenin and Hitler did not mean what they said either.
Everyone is watching France, but Greece will pull the trigger.
If the financial collapse starts before Parliamentary elections in France, Hollande’s options may be far more circumscribed than he believes.
The phrase Après moi, le déluge may apply to Hollande in a way he does not expect.
Subotai Bahadur
this option has certainly been forecasted, you know the french socialist aren’t your communist caricatures, they who have economists as advisers
Lately a group of french and german economists studied how to get out the euro with the same “soft” and careful approach that was used for implementing the euro
So, if the Greeks pull the trigger, don’t expect that these people will be taken by surprise, and the french banking system has centuries of experiences, even, today, in managing the very different countries that have the Franc CFA as currency, Africa, Asia, Pacific
“French socialiste are not a caricature” but m. Hollande is.
Look… as he announced a very demagogic tax of 75 % for the “evil rich”… 10 months before he said just it was USELESS and UNSUSTUNABLE
So sad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2pBauy_Anw&feature=youtube_gdata_player
yes, a Campain discourse to gain on the Melenchon’s voices
now reality is coming back
you should know better on elections campains
I just want to know about morality.
Revised MAP OF HELL: FRANCE is its NEW CENTER!. From a friend who knows France — One little known aspect of Hollande is that he is very sympathetic to Muslims. This fact has been going around in private e-mails in France, but not discussed openly in the media. And, sadly, their blogosphere is probably smaller than what we have in San Diego. Hollande has publicly called for a reconciliation of cultures (i.e., Western and Islamic). His campaign staff was largely Algerian and North African. Anyway, he’s going to encourage the submersion of the French culture and rise of Islam in France.
“Hollande has publicly called for a reconciliation of culturesHollande has publicly called for a reconciliation of cultures”
So what? are you expecting that a responsible person would call for a civil war?
“His campaign staff was largely Algerian and North African.”
BS, look at them, they look more franco-jews !
“Anyway, he’s going to encourage the submersion of the French culture and rise of Islam in France.”
yeah, never heard of that, but may-be that’s what your radical AIPAC Militants are saying
Is Marie-Claude among these youths?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OO20bMixc3o
yes, PCF is the banner
So far none of these plebe will govern
and so far, people are still free to express their opinion, which doesn’t represent the majority
La CRISE is rather our concern
No, that’s not what the youths are saying.
Their problem, as well as yours, is the Jews.
BS
it’s your obsession !
But many Jews, if not the majority are among this plebe too, you know they vote lefty, since a long while, and they who are the Bobos too !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NaYJ14zdCSw&feature=player_embedded
for la belle france, au revoir, mon cheri
bon debarras!
vas te faire f**tre
you, too
“France is not ruled by its president, as in the American presidential system”
AHEM, Excuse me, an american president doesn’t RULE, he serves with our blessing.Get it right, Please!
Geez, you must be monitoring MSNBC or something too much.
“Michel Gurfinkiel is the founder and president of the Jean Jacques Rousseau Institute in Paris.” I assume Mr. Gurfinkiel is a French national, and as such isn’t intimately familiar with the subtleties of the American political system and/or the English language.
The he should not pontificate on or draw comparisons with the American system.
– beckons.
It happened bfeore , the cohabitation.Higly unlike . In France like every other country but for the USA, the winner of an election usually carries the momentum into the next.
For the first 100 days he will have a window of no criticism by the press, The Etat de Grace, to allow him deploys his plan.
Sarko like The Verve reached the presidency as a new right representative, a liberal in the european sense , the true sense.( What you wrongly call a libertarian what means anachist)( Mises, Liberalism and Spencer, the Individual against the state explain what happened with the word). But once in power they do what everyone in the world do, blame the USA.. Beside that he destroyed his party and became a Napoleon III . A personalist regime with no party. It was all about Sarko. The divided right could , will ,to be true,lose against the creation of Mitterrand , the vichy funcionary who helped the National Front to rise to stop the right.
The best option was DSK a promarket reformist who knows finance who chose the wrong country to act like a satire. In France, it would be business as usual.
hmm, not sure that DSK would have carried out his career in France, so many people were happy that he was outted, among the left and the right parties, they would have triggered the same frying pans, like la Banon, and the prostitutes traffic
hmm, the president of france, even without a National Assembly on his side, still have the power on Foreign Affairs and on the Army, also the first Magistrate of france , hence responsible of Justice and of the police
http://www.presidentielle-2007.net/pouvoirs.php
“He can quit the EU and the eurozone as both the Far Left and the Far Right recommend, a move that would probably bring about a “Greek effect” on the French economy.”
He has no intention to leave the EU, nor the euro, just to make the austerity rules less strict
He will just recycle existing money for without creating new ressources the only way is to tax… Maybe the rich (ha ha ha) but to tax again and again.
And Mélenchon tête de con is watching him
No, he’s going to take more into the Bayrou’s MODEM, and one inevitable green
Otherwis, Brussels is watching his budget
The National Assembly elections could be a great opportunity to realize the misfortune of Hollande’s reform plans. If this takes place, the European Fiscal Compact could be further implemented with no persistent allegations of “rich is to blame” coming from the socialists. In any case, the supporters will be disappointed.
http://vois-news.com/present/files/elections-france2012-results.html
93% of muslims voted Hollande. As They are the “new” France, They Will decide the next assembly.
But, perhaps, they Will be less interested in these elections than in the presidential one.
The France today is no more the France of the frenchies
It’s the collaboration between neo-French and the Marie Claudes.
What ties them? A strong belief in the Protocols…
and well said, too!
but the majority voted Melenchon first
90% of our Muslims are serene muslims, some of them voted Marine Le Pen, and some Jews too !
Well, if most Moslems in France are “serene” then why all the complaints about discrimination and “Islamophobia” ?
Or maybe it’s only the French elite that is not “serene” about equality, fraternity and all that?
the quarels are exacerbated by associations such “SOS racism”, “MRAP”… for which “Islamophobia” are their means for earning their life
I know plenty of Muslims that are integrated, that talk like the French, that eat like the French, that drink like the French, that swear like the French…
… and who live like the French with a subsidized apartment for each wife, and rant like the French because their allowances are not high enough. And they watch French TV modeled after Arab TV chains, and read French web sites explaining in accessible French what Jihad really means. And participate in very French riots, waving not-very-French flags.
Of course, your Moslem acquaintances are a highly representative sample.
As representative of France as you are.
Bern, you only see the half empty glass, I don’t mean that that doesn’t exist, but that that’s not the majority
press on a more positive view, and your life will improve
Sorry, blindness is not therapeutic.
And your “some of my best friends…” tirade is a well-known pseudo-excuse.
blindness vs bigottery, which is the evilest?
I’m sorry to see you suffer from at least 3 problems. Self-induced blindness, bigotry, and spelling (or is it dyslexia?).
finally the diagnostic that unveils your generous agenda !
who needs fuel when we have you for re animating the fires?
Try thinking of the image you’re giving of “La France” before posting.
which image?
I don’t care of my image, I’ am defending another country that you don’t seem to know
OK, if the French see it in their best interest to elect a Socialist, and that Socialist elects to be fiscally irresponsible, I for one DO NOT WANT ONE US DOLLAR to go to the IMF, EU or wherever it ‘prop up’ thier overspending. This would be true for Greece, Spain and so on. No thanks. Semper Fi.
but go tell it to Obama, he’s half French, y’know . . .
Boff, wait and see !
Le presidente de la France,
Up to his old song ‘n dance.
He jiggles his ass
In a fanfare of gas,
Voila toot! Then sh*its in his pants.
http://www.wat.tv/video/monsieur-petomane-yje9_2h7uh_.html
crepitation, a traditional French national pastime
OK, it’s a pervertion for fireworks (notice that the petomane is English speaking)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4egKcn4RiE