North vs. South Korea: How Bad Could a War Get?
“As we enter the summer of 2010,” writes Austin Bay, “the risk of all-out war on the Korean peninsula is quite high, and possibly the highest it has been since the armistice was signed in 1953.”
The good news: It’s unlikely that North Korea has enough gasoline to fight for more than a few days.
The bad news: they could really mess up the South in less time than that.
The worse news: nobody knows what would happen after the inevitable North Korean collapse, but everybody knows that nobody could afford it.
The downright scary news: even a wildly unspectacular North Korean invasion would serve as a test of our CINC’s mettle — a test we can’t be certain he’d pass.
Let’s go through these points one at a time.
The Good News
An army, Napoleon said, travels on its stomach. But a modern army travels on POL: petroleum, oil, lubricants. It’s doubtful Pyongyang has enough POL to grease their tanks much further south than midtown Seoul. Also, an army needs lots of ammo and tons of spares. How many new tank tracks do you think the North has been able to beg, borrow, buy, or steal in the last 20 years? Answer: not many. And ammo needs to be replaced every couple of decades — even bullets have a shelf life. The situation for aircraft is even more critical, so it’s a good guess that the North’s air force is in even worse shape than the army. The DPRK navy can still pack some punch, as we learned last month, but sneak attacks don’t guarantee victory — just ask Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto.
Another bit of good news is that China is giving North Korea some small diplomatic cover over the sinking of the Cheonan. That might not seem like a good thing at first blush, but as long as China maintains influence over the DPRK, the odds of war are reduced.
The Bad News
North Korea has special forces up the Pyongyang. This tiny, starving, impoverished nation has tens of thousands of special forces — and they have a reputation for being tough, skilled, and deadly. They’re also expected to swarm the South’s airports and seaports and do a pretty savage job of knocking them out of service. They also might have a pretty easy time of blending into the civilian population (or even disguise themselves as ROK soldiers) and continuing to wreak havoc until found and killed, one by one.
True, South Korea would be severely damaged in an attack by North Korea, but North Korea would be a black smudge on the face of the earth after the United States and South Korea got through with it. Even if the United States did NOT use tactical nuclear weapons, this is the type of war the US military always trains for. We would launch ever available B-1, B-2, and B-52 bomber against North Korea and this time we wouldn’t be too concerned about “collateral damage.” We would be hitting massed enemy troop formations along with fixed artillery position. Our ground attack aircraft, such as the A-10 or the Apache helicopters, would also make short work of the North Korean tank formations, much like they did during the First Gulf War.
And we haven’t even started talking about the US Navy. Every available carrier battle group. Marine amphibious assault group, and ships armed with cruise missiles (such as nuclear subs, destroyers, or cruiers) would be heading for Korea. A modern carrier battle group can produce a world of hurt, and five or six of them would be able to provide and awesome amount of firepower.
But one thing needs to be understood by North Korea. Our military does some things badly, such as nation-building or fighting guerrilla warfare in jungles. But a massed assault started by North Korea is what our military dreams of. This is what they do best. Our military will be able to throw everything it has against the North Koreans and not be concerned with civilian casualties or “collateral damage.” American air power and sea power killed literally thousands of North Korean and Chinese troops during the first Korean War. Our technology and the power of our weapons only has gotten much better since then. In addition, unlike the first Korean War, South Korea now has a large, well equipped, and highly motivated army that could hold back an attack from North Korea. It would definitely sustain significant losses, but, in the end, the South would win.
The only question left is, will the North use its nuclear weapons? I don’t think China would allow it and would shut down the war immediately if the North used such a weapon. China does NOT want a nuclear war taking place on its southern border.
I just can’t believe the North would want to lose everything in a stupid attempt to invade the South. Then again, nobody thought Saddam Hussein would ever invade Kuwait.
I agree completely that the US military could do all of the things you list above.
Unfortunately, ability is not the operative question. Will is.
Will Obama order the military into a full scale assault? I fear that if he agrees to a counter strike at all, it will be a very limited one. His main criteria will be trying to thread the political needle. A big enough strike to satisfy most of his critics, without angering his supporters too much.
As with Vietnam, domestic political concerns will take precedence of in the field military matters. And we all know how Vietname turned out.
Today, I started listening to Obama speaking about the Gulf crisis. I saw a man that is so full of crap I could not listen to all of it..
. He will never step up to the plate in Korea..north or south… He cannot handle domestic “anything” and we expect this man to actually make a decision on such a grand scale ? It will take him at least a month to think about it, then he’ll have to consult on if there is a golf game he would like to be in, then he’ll host Mexico again, then…oh Korean conflict..where was I, he?
Obama is an empty shirt. Just ask the people along the Gulf Coast.
MarktheGreat is spot on. It’s no longer a question of whether or not we can crush the NK’s militarily, but rather a question of whether our politcal leadership has the will to intervene on behalf of a long term ally. It took Mr. Obama 90+ days to decide on if he should commit more troops to the “good war” in Afghanistan. This administration does nothing quickly. I don’t think that Mr. Obama has the courage to make difficult decisions. He will dither…while Seoul burns…
Then you’ll see all of our allies fall away. NATO will collapse when the Germans, Danes, Dutch and Brits withdraw from Afghanistan…then the real misery will begin…
“Our military will be able to throw everything it has against the North Koreans and not be concerned with civilian casualties”
Usual American bullyboy crap. Nice to see some things don’t change, even if America is probably the only country left that thinks America is important.
“even if America is probably the only country left that thinks America is important.”
If this is a quote from the Encyclopedia Moronica, remember to cite your sources.
Mr. Green: I was very much enjoying your article untile I read the last part of it..
Turkey is leaving NATO because of European union’s refusal to let them in.
Obama told the Israeli’s where to go and it is about time one our Presidents did so as they pose a huge national security threat to our country and they need to be dealt.
I do not see how India was snubbed… their prime minister got one of the biggest reception of a head of state in the last 50 years.
French ignored… how is this possible in fact the French and us working the hardest to dismantle the Iranian Nukes…
As for Britain insulted… how… becuase of an f….ing gift?
trust me George Bush would not have done anything different..
Isreal is a security risk to the US.
Anyone who holds such an opinion, isn’t qualified to hold any other opinions.
As to insulting Britain, I’m not surpised you missed all the rest of the insult, your head is to far up Obama’s bum to see it.
Far enough up his bum to check for cavities.
Israel is not a security risk for America. Israel is a security risk for no one in fact. This faulty line of reasoning started mainly with waves of Arab terrorism in Europe and the rest of the world; the conclusion many Europeans and some Americans drew was that Arabs are willing to kill us if they are not able to kill Israelis.
Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t think G.W. Bush gave the Queen an iPod with all his speeches on it. That’s an insult wrapped up as a gift in my book. Read the responses of some of the English press and you may grasp the insult of Obama’s ‘gift’.
Ignorance is the gift that just keeps giving. When O when will Obama run out of gifts.
Ah yes, it’s the evil JOOZ who are to blame, eh? Yes, Israel. The greatest threat to world peace and prosperity ever. Please, go back and re-read your Protocols of the Elders of Zion and leave us all alone.
Can you imagine if Jewish people were thin skinned savages like Islamics?
No, me neither.
Yes, Israel is a threat to US security, and trashy cheap shots implying racism don’t change that.
Have you forgotten what Israel did to Lebanon just a few years ago? That was utterly unacceptable by any member of the community of nations. Israelis claim any of their neighbours with the capacity for self-defence or deterrence are a threat to them – not just bullies, but cowardly bullies.
And now the web and airwaves are filled with Israelis and their American supporters begging for a war with Iran.
Futile, deluded warmongering. Israel has had a green light for too long; that country needs a leash put on it.
Don’t look now, Chris; but your swastika panties are showing…
Fairy tale writing contest announced: You too can be a famous fairy tale writer!!!
Please explain in 500 words or less how the Hizbullah, a sect-based proxy militia imposed on Lebanon by a Mullahcratic Iran functioned as a “deterrent” when they crossed an internationally recognized border and kidnapped two soldiers from a UN member state?
If that one is too hard, then please describe, in 500 words or less, which colour is your favourite, and why?
Best of luck!
Was this the same Lebanon that was raining missiles down on Israeli cities?
Oh yea, I forgot, your the guy who said that as long as only a few Jews get killed, there is no problem and Israel is not permitted to respond.
The charge of racism stings you, because it is so accurate.
Your opinion is disgusting.
Wow the antisemitic moonbat left wing Socialist NAZI’s are out in force hey. How do you sleep at night Miriam dreaming of ANOTHER Holocaust for the wicked Jews no doubt. People like you make me vomit. Mark is right your moonbat head is so far up Obambi’ *ass you most probably know what he eats for breakfast.
We (Britain) are no longer America’s lap dog. As for a f—ing gift (I presume you were trying to be profane), if you are talking about WWII, well we’ve paid that off now. It’s about time America took itself down a peg or two before it’s done for you.
Never fear, for our Dear Leader (as opposed to their Dear Leader, it gets so confusing…) has the ultimate weapon at hand: an immediate apology!
We don’t stand a chance! (Wait. That didn’t come out right….)
I think you missed out on the Iran factor of the war. There’s a reason why Pres. Bush included Iran and North Korea in the Axis of Evil. If North Korea goes to war, Iran would most likely help support them, and try to take out the American warships in the Gulf. That would certainly gum up any American response.
Actually, it’s not terribly likely that Iran would attack any warships in the Gulf. That would be an act of war that the American people would not let Obama ignore, and one carrier battlegroup acting by itself is quite enough to reduce Iran to smoldering wreckage, even without nukes, even without permission for the Air Force to pitch in from Iraqi bases (which would be immediately granted), and even without the rest of the Gulf nations pitching in with their air forces (which is also fairly likely). It would just take a bit longer. Iran’s most likely contribution would be to turn loose their people in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Gaza.
I agree the rest of the Gulf states would love to see Iran crushed. They do not have a lot of military resources but I bet the spy network inside Iran is vast.
I’m quite sure Obama is a graduate of the Rodney King school of diplomacy – “Can’t we all just get along”? How can The Messiah ever concentrate on his takeover of the US Government with all these distractions?
The world is like a powder keg in a forest fire – sooner or later the keg will blow.
Will China give their lapdog Norks the go-ahead? Don’t look for them to hold em back. What better cover for them taking action on their designs to repatriate one of their own runaway states – Taiwan? Better for it to happen somewhere else in the world but like the Democrat’s slogan of late ‘never let a good crisis go to waste’. I’m sure they won’t.
The European Union is dissolving faster than a toilet paper origami in a rain storm – Obama is sending signals to the ME islamic nations that Israel may well be on their own should hostilities break out. The only thing holding them back Israel’s enemies is the bite of nuclear deterrent – an about to be overrun Israel might well strike back in a last ditch attempt at payback in the face of total destruction. Once the muslims have overrun Israel a few of them may well start on their neighbors. No love lost between many of them.
This is by no means a comprehensive list of the world’s hot spots – just the highlights.
When will the sparks land on the keg?
Any time.
About a year ago, I listened to a talk by a recently retired USAF Lt Gen who had been commander of the American air assets in Korea. He wore, as I recall, something like 5 different “hats.” His reading was in agreement with the basis of the article. From a purely military standpoint, the South would win over the North without any outside help. However, the problem is that the North has something like 100K “tubes,” rocket and artillery emplacements, targeted on Seoul. In 24-48 hours, Seoul and much of the area below the DMZ would be reduced to ruble. For that, American air power is needed to take out the installations quickly enough to minimize the damage. Even then, it will be extensive. And of course, there is the political aspect which could be much trickier.
Actually, the North has about 10K cannon and rocket launchers total. If the fairly small fraction of them that were actually dedicated to bombarding Seoul was left completely unmolested to do their thing, the total weight of explosives delivered each day would amount to about the same as one major WW2 bombing raid. That’s certainly not trivial, but 1: they certainly would not be left unmolested, 2: they likely lack the ammunition for more than a day or two of sustained firing, and 3: it takes a LOT of HE to trash a major city. In WW2, Operation Gomorrah saw Hamburg firebombed for a week, for 40k to 50k casualties out of a population of some 1.5 million, mostly because of the firestorm caused by the incendiaries. Again, certainly not trivial, but certainly not total destruction, either. This particular threat seems to be somewhat overstated, which is perhaps not surprising in an age where a couple of dozen mortar rounds in the space of an hour is breathlessly reported as a “barrage.”
While you are correct in many points, your comparisson with WWII operations ignores one very large difference: the international will and the collective will of modern states to sustain sizable casualties in a war. Remember how many Americans were ready to throw in the towel and abandon Iraq when military deaths topped just 1000? Consider, then, the scenario of several thousand ROK civilians burried under daily barrages by the DPRK and ask how long before the same folks and their ROK counterparts would press for negotiation and/or capitulation?
The sole winning strategy for the DPRK would be massive sustained civilian death to break ROK, US and UNC will. They have enormous stocks of chemical and biological agents, and noone who has studied them doesn’t believe they will use them in the first days. If the DMZ ever errupts it will be very, very bad, and will quickly evolve from a question of military capability to one of political will. Failure to recognize that would prove fatal.
“They have enormous stocks of chemical and biological agents, and noone who has studied them doesn’t believe they won’t use them in the first days.”
Oops! I know, too many damn negatives in one sentance makes keeping them all straight troublesome.
There are no TV cameras in North Korea. Deaths that are not on TV don’t exist, so far as the American public is concerned.
Does anyone know whether the US stockpiles fuel-air explosive (thermobaric/”vacuum”) bombs? I know the Russians do – I first heard about them when the Russians used them in Chechnya to kill troops hiding underground. I wondered whether they might be an effective emergency response in the first hours of a conflict, saturating the area north of the DMZ with them to kill underground troops operating artillery pieces. The pressure differentials they produced may also be enough seriously damage underground artillery pieces, or at least knock them off of their orientation.
And there’s the aftermath of the humanitarian crisis of 20 million NoKos who will need to be fed and deprogrammed.
And with a ruined, or severely damaged SoKo, there won’t be much money.
I sat through a study on a potential second Korean conflict that defined it as a 36 hour war; that the North Korean military would cease to function as an effective fieldable force within 36 hours of the first shot being fired. Every study I’ve seen says that the North’s military (still designed and trained out of the 1950′s) would be smashed in a largely one sided military contest. As Stephen Green pointed out, the primary friendly casualty would be the city of Seoul (10 million+ population), primarily through conventional artillery, although no reason to assume chemical or biological wouldn’t be included. Its widely assumed that the North has artillery assets with that capability. On top of that, Korea’s got another 6 cities with a population of a million plus that woyuld be tempting targets for the North’s nuclear weapons. People also seem to be hoping that Kim stays halfway rational and does not choose to pull Japan in as well. that’s a faint hope at best, there’s every reason to think that if Kim sees he’s going down he’d seek to widen the conflict. The Greater Tokyo area places another 35 million people inside Kim’s nuclear radius. Kim’s megalomania is wild enough that he might just decide to take as many people with him as possible. The rational self preservation that we traditionally use to judge actions, don’t seem to apply to Kim.
Let’s not forget that South Korea has a number of nuclear power plants – one or two ugly hits by Scuds or Scarabs could produce some very dirty results.
It would take a pretty special hit to get through a yard of concrete containment building wall and a foot of steel reactor vessel wall. Short of that, it’s not much of a problem.
One benefit of an outright war would be the partial solving of immediate aftermath of a collapsed and desperate North Korean state. I think most western nations including South Koreans would be horrified by the humanitarian disaster caused by a North Korean internal collapse. In a non military collapse, the suffering imposed would lead to a disastrously generous response for a people incapable of handling the responsibility imposed on them (see Afghanistan Somalia). Many of the starving would be allowed south. South Korea would financially, and possibly socially break itself in an attempt at some form of reunification. Such a policy would be driven largely by the compassion for helping their desperate kinsman.
Thankfully, the wrecking of Seoul and the killing of several hundred thousand of their citizens would partially inure them to the suffering of their kinsmen. Ultimately, the South, China and the US will intervene to assume responsibility of the country, but it would be an occupied country run by the military as opposed to an East German brother welcomed into the fold. It would be bad, but it will be bad in a very different way.
If the NoKor govt ceased to exist tomorrow, and the South was faced with re-unification and the subsequant rebuilding of the North, it would be accomplished with the same dedication and discipline that we witnessed in East Germnay. Would it cause hardship in the South: Yes. Would they resent it: I think the family re-unification would be the most important issue. Would the South survive: The Republic of Korea would become over the next 10-20 years one of the most dynamic economic engines in East Asia, especially with the ability to utilyze the human and natural resources of the North.
Any serious talk of equivilancy with GDR is ignorant of the facts on the ground. a large number of folks in the DPRK are locked into a feudal subsitance level of existence. The deprivations on their people have been so great and sustained that there is no other country on the face of the earth that has not only endured the like, but actually had such hell visited upon it by its own government. Instantaneous reconciliation of DPRK and ROK would almost halve ROK GDP. DPRK industry produces nothing except weapons, death and bad sochu. Believe me, that shit is harsh.
Yes, but China would step up to the plate to make sure the transition goes as smoothly as possible, for the sole purpose of preventing millions of North Korean refugees from flooding their borders.
the chinese would like to see s.korea destroyed. they will pick up on all samsung’s etc business etc. the 20,000 or so artillery pieces trained on seoul will shoot millions of shells down up it.
What doesn’t Mr. Obama understand about this situation? His first duty is to protect his citizens and defend his allies, not to change the world, based on some hippy pipe dreams. Tyrants and dictators, when given even the slightest encouragement, have made a habit of misreading America and its likely response to aggression. Why should this time be any different? When will America’s enemies ever see a better perfect storm of weakness and opportunity again? It will get ugly, maybe uglier than previous times even if they only manage to guarantee their own demise. Unfortunately, in their misreadings, an awful lot of innocent people get hurt.
Come on Steve, there are fundraisers that cannot be cancelled.
Mr. Obama’s foreign policy blunders are beginning to come home to roost. Any Korean scenario other than the current stalemate will have a very negative impact on his ability to accomplish international policy initiatives for the rest of his term. He is simply considered without gravitas now. It will take decades to recover from these policy disasters.
NK has been playing over the edge brinksmanship with the world for over fifty years. They have brought down planes – military and civilian, atacked American and Korean soldiers, and attempted assassinations of South Korean leaders. Yet they can’t seem to get themselves righteously wiped off the face of the Earth.
Why is it different this time?
The general scenarios sketched out here are what I expected to happen almost immediately after Obama took office. (I thought it might be PRC vs Taiwan first, but that might come second.) I knew he would be a disaster as a president, but I’ve been surprised that global adversaries have given him this much of a honeymoon.
Perhaps they perceived that a challenge from abroad would solidify his support at home, and they are acting now because they expect he won’t be a significant factor much longer. Hard to second-guess their motivations. Unfortunately, it’s also hard to say how much the average American will care.
PRC doesn’t really have the amphibious lift to take Taiwan just yet, and it’s not all that clear that they have the necessary airpower, either.
It’s not clear how much longer they will have the manpower either.
This latest manifestation of the 0bama crisis of legitimacy is only the beginning folks. He and the administration he has formed around him have thrust upon us a massive crisis of legitimacy on both domestic and foreign policy fronts.
Exploitation of this weakness by those whose ends and means are inimical to the principles America has traditionally defended will accelerate as said weakness becomes even more obvious despite the reams of favorable propaganda that has been disseminated through the leftist sociopolitical establishment. Failure cannot be wished or manipulated away forever and the stress cracks in their media armor are widening into great gulfs as reality reimposes itself upon their worldview. Will they change, or are they even capable of changing, their course? I think not as their whole house of cards is built upon a foundation of lies and slanders against a once dependable American way.
Interesting times approaching.
Surely we must all realize that the pols and bankers who took the world to economic collapse by writing phony paper will not hesitate to start WW III to reset the game.
Looks inevitable to me.
There are two types of people who cannot be controlled- those with nothing to lose and those who are insane. It is impossible for the globalists to force those who feel they have nothing to lose because they either lost everything or regard what they have as nothing compared to their souls, their freedom and/or their honor, because there is nothing that they can bribe them with that they’d be willing to accept and nothing they can threaten to take away that they wouldn’t lose anyway by acquiescing. The madman, on the other hand, can’t be controlled because he can’t be predicted. He behaves in a manner that leaves it impossible to predict his next move.
Keep in mind that when the NorKs start their play, Iran will begin their play at the same time. Like they had coordinated. Like they were an “Axis of Evil”.
I’ve had a couple of USAF tours pushing fighters around the peninsula, and a few other years in theater, but haven’t been there since the 90′s. However, here’s my 2 cents on the threat:
1. Artillery bombardment of Seoul. Can’t be stopped before they do a lot of damage, even if most of the HART sites are already targeted. May well choke a lot of roads with refugees.
2. Special forces, around 100K, but: they have to get them south. Probably jumping from AN-2 Colts at night and various sea landing sites. They’ll play hell with USAF and ROK air bases. However, there’s a reasonable chance of stopping most of them: boats and slow aircraft are easy targets (AN-2 is a fabric biplane, small radar cross section, but detectable).
3. Armor: won’t get far, too many mines, choke points, and angry grunts.
4. Nukes: it’s doubtful they have a weapon. Their tests were essentially misfires, probably due to plutonium contaminated with 238 and 240 isotopes, and from reports they were bigger than a house. I admit I’m prepared to be corrected–it would be a horrible miscalculation, but I think Dear Leader wants everyone to think he has nukes (sound familiar?).
5. DPRK naval and air power: please.
That’s just order of battle stuff. The other circumstances, i.e., China’s response, DPRK collapse, and the test of Obama’s leadership are, as noted by all, the wild cards.
I thought their most recent test had a fairly decent yield. Agree with you on the size. Need a large military style transport to move. It would however fit in the hold of a ship.
What makes you think Obama doesn’t want a war? FDR killed 400,000 Americans and socialized us with programs that are bankrupting us to this day.
For this, he got a four-chambered monument on the National Mall and the equivalent of sainthood.
Do you really think Omama doesn’t believe he deserves to have a monument at least as large as FRD’s, and preferable to Lincoln’s?
The only way to get that monument is to involve us in a Really Big War.
US losses in WW II was 318,000 – not 400,000 – and FDR didn’t ‘kill’ them. I get the idea you think our involvement in WW II was a bad idea. I don’t know about you but I’m quite content to be speaking English as a first language and not German.
It was the depression that allowed FDR to socialize most of the country. To fight the war, he had to dismantle many of these programs. It was this dismantling and the fact that FDR died during the war, so he wasn’t there to put them back in place after the war, that permitted the post war economic boom.
Though FDR does bear primary responsibility for the depression, much as Obama is working over time to create a new depression for our generation.
Oh, Obama’s just not that deep. Attributing these kinds of master plans to this little guy give him far to much credit. Remember, he has never done anything, ever. He’s just a little street organizer with an academic patina. He has no master plan. He has no guts, no stamina, no clue how to lead. He’s got snark, sarcasm, and little else, and the rubes are finally waking up to the fact.
I doubt China wants any kind of war on the Korean peninsula. Not only would that remove the buffer state that they have in NK, but it would mean millions of refugees pouring into China. Top it all off with the global economic and trade disaster that this would precipitate, and it’s clear that China would prefer everything stay the status quo. On that last point, note that Asia hasn’t been as hard hit in the current recession; toss in a war that obliterates one of the modern, globally-integrated economies, as well as shutting down sea lanes, and you see why China would find a war to be disastrous. The problem is that they can’t keep the status quo forever–NK is going to go down one way or another, and it’s increasingly doubtful they would even listen to China if they got close enough to the brink.
China remembers that a Japanese army, starting from where North Korea is now, almost took out their country prior to WW2. They will not let an American surrogate country, as they see it, occupy that space and are quite happy to have an idiot child dictator there to tweek the nose of the west while keeping things nicely chaotic. IOWs, there will not be a war, unless Kim has gone completely insane and if they decide that is happening will likely invade first themselves, just to keep the North “friendly”.
Obama won election because of illegal Chinese campaign contributions (his campaign had to re-program their website specifically to allow the Chinese to donate money). The Democrats are dependent upon illegal Chinese campaign contributions going into the Nov 2010 elections and for the 2012 elections. Obama would have no qualms throwing away the lives of US servicemen to keep the Chinese happy. He’ll hop whichever way they ask on what he considers throw-away issues (such as the foreign currency market, or the Korean peninsula).
Let me get this straight: the problem here isn’t actually that ‘lil Kim is a bona fide super crazy dictator who throws some of his people into genuine gulags, oppresses the average citizen, and allows famine while devoting precious hard currency to Gucci and LVMH–and may well go to war to prove his right to succession.
No–the problem is actually Obama and a crisis of legitimacy. Is that correct? Are you really arguing that Obama created this problem as opposed to inheriting it? Please explain, and perhaps also remind anyone reading why the war in Iraq was a good idea, and actually validated American foreign policy legitimacy. And as for this comment: “The only way to get that monument is to involve us in a Really Big War.” Were you alive and watching the news between 2000-2008? Iraq ring a bell?
More reason to vote for Palin no doubt; I’m sure she can see the DPRK from her house….
Yes, the problem is Obama- because while li’l Kim has been a super-crazy dictator for years, only now is America wearing a gigantic “kick me” sign.
Hmm. Putting aside the incompetent OILbama, the war could be over quick. The NOK’s military is built on a centralize command and control model, so a tactical nuke or two on the command structure would halt the attack in nanoseconds.
We are talking about a President who doesn’t have the fortitude to order a Private to throw a hand grenade. You think he’s going to release tac nukes?
Maybe the South Koreans should whip up a few – they could probably assemble them as fast as I can re-assemble an M16.
A thought I haven’t seen here is whether the North Korean military leadership would allow the political madmen in North Korea to actually start a war that would inevitably lead to the destruction of all significant North Korean military assets and the dissolution of their armed forces. I’d think a pro-Chinese faction would overthrow the Dear Leader first. People do look to their own interests.
Why do people think the Norks will start it. South Korea’s advantages are so great, it seems likely that the South will initiate combat…and win decisively.
Living in S. Korea, let me be the first to tell you that no one here wants anything to do with a war with the north. Life is pretty comfortable here, people go about their daily lives much as any place in the States I’ve lived (albeit with much crappier drivers). You’d have to be crazy to want to risk your job, nice clothes, coffee breaks at Starbucks, evening darts/pool game at the bar to go to war with a desolate neighbor run by nut jobs. The S. Korean’s aren’t crazy. They remember a time, only a short couple of decades ago, when their own county was 3rd world. It’s now highly developed. They don’t have any interest in going back to poverty and hardship.
You see, communism is the gift that keeps on giving!
Lil’ Kim is crazy though. I can’t imagine his regime slowly slipping away. If anything, their utter dependence on showmanship and their bizarre cultish beliefs should be enough to convince anyone that they’ll go out with a bang when they start loosing power. (As noted recently, they have had to deal with social unrest for the first time in ages. The only thing we could hope for is that enough generals will stand down because they can see through the charade and know how badly it will end.
This is not a game of KriegSpiel; The North will starve, the South will
be in Intensive Care for years, and China may decide to take the whole
peninsula if the US does not occupy it to defend and rebuild.
A Step Farther Out the probability curve there is a surprise atack
by _China_ on the US Carrier Battle Groups using nuclear mines laid
by submarine, or detonated inside submarines.
Preemptive response: NO, the US will not respond with nuclear weapons;
The Chinese land forces will be protected by Korean civilian hostages,
and Chinese cities will be protected by US cities held hostage by threat
of retaliation; A Chinese official went on record some years ago, saying
that the US would not trade Taiwan for Los Angeles, and he was right.
Too bad the Democrats don’t have anyone with Truman’s testicular fortitude. Los Angeles would be a small sacrifice.
‘They gave me a bigger cannon, so I used it.’
H. S. Truman, former Artillery Officer, on
the atomic bombing of Japan.
If the Axis powers had succeeded in developing
their own nuclear weapons, Truman could have
fought, and won, the first nuclear war;
The US would still have been standing.
The US-USSR Mexican Standoff, AKA
Mutually Assured Destruction would have
had no winner had there had been an exchange.
The US-China face-off is different because,
China is _not_ powerful enough to be an
existential threat, or to destroy our
nuclear strike capabilities; This allows
for a limited exchange, one target at a time,
until one side decides the damage is not worth
the prize.
That, and the fact that there’d be a coup if Obama refused to retaliate after China nuked an American city.
You got that right. The scary thing is, they don’t get it;
The Progressives think that elections, and laws, convey
absolute, unlimited power.
In the immortal words of G.W. Bush . . . “Bring it on!”
Let’s kick some DRNK ass and save all those poor people who’ve been eating grass for the last sixty years.
Won’t happen, though . . . Obambi has no gut.
What a great legacy for him, though . . . a unified Korea, with electricity for all and a country ripe for growth!
Never happen.
This is not such a bad thing. We needed a BHO to show the nation what the lofty sounding progressive economics looked like when implemented so so that out kids would stop being moved by them. This is our opportunity to demonstrate the results of progressive foreign policy to the world. The price could be much worse…
I don’t see much analysis on the root causes of North Korea’s gripes. That’s because I am sure you want to avoid the elephant in the room, which is Bush’s isolation of North Korea by calling them evil. Perhaps if you spent less time inventing ways to blame Obama, and more time looking at how Bush’s alienation of North Korea has led to rampant poverty and starvation in a country that can barely feed itself thanks to all of the pressure Bush placed on the world to ignore North Korea. Obama on the other hand, is brilliantly letting diplomacy take it natural course rather than running around calling North Korea names. You should stop covering for Bush and place the blame at Bush’s feet where it belongs.
Vinny, Vinny, Vinny,
You need to go back to Troll school! First of all, “Blame Bush!” is way past it’s sell date. And you need to start out with some reasonable statements to sucker people in, then slide carefully into the DNC talking points.
That”D” you got in Troll School? It doesn’t mean you were the best student in the class…
So I suppose that the invasion of 1950 was caused by a prepubescent- if that- GW Bush calling them evil?
The North has dug its own grave. The sooner you appeasers accept that the West is not at fault for everything, the sooner we can work towards correcting the problem.
Just in case you were asleep, research the taking of the U.S.S. Pueblo on Jan. 23, 1968. I can assure you that George Bush wasn’t the POTUS then. N. Korea has had a hard-on for the United States since the summer of 1950, at least. Now, addressing your attempt at snark, Bush was an actual leader, unafraid to call out despots and dictators. So was Reagan, and frankly, so was Kennedy before them. These men didn’t waffle in the face of diabolic adversity. Obama does! You bleeding heart liberals are dangerously ignorant in your euphoric continuance of thinking that “chatting” with these people will somehow accomplish your world peace objectives. It won’t! N. Korea’s midget dictator, along with his evil twin from Iran couldn’t care less about you, or your silly little peace signs, and have no more respect for Obama than they had for his predecessor. These people “live by the sword”, and they will surely “die by the sword”. You can take that to the bank!
N. Koreans have been starving for decades. Bush didn’t isolate them by calling them evil, they have been evil for decades. Isolation from the rest of the world has been official N. Korean philosophy since the end of the Korean war.
You really need to get out of the DNC headquarters long enough to learn to recognize reality.
I recall reading a report that the NK military was starting to run out of food. If I can find it I’ll post it. Assuming that this is true, it may well be that the NK dictatorship has come to the point where they have nothing to lose–it’s one thing to for the peon civilians to starve to death, but if the military is starting to not eat as well, that’s an entirely different thing.
The NK might have come to the place of “use it or lose it”.
You forget that the Democrats don’t want to avoid war and aren’t afraid of it as most Republicans and others seem to think. The Democrats are only opposed to winning which they fear Republican presidents and even slightly moderate Democrats might want to for personal pride if not patriotism. With a die-in-the-wool lefty in office, the Democrats will get what they really want which is an opportunity to lose a war. They’re busy alienating allies and bowing to enemies just hoping someone will attack so they can lose. Only North Korea is really dumb enough to risk it. But the rest of the world including the U.S. doesn’t realize that the Democrats are praying for a war they can arrange to lose.
The same topic is being discussed in great detail over at another part of Pajamas Media, BELMONT CLUB; under the title “The Ghost of Donald Rumsfeld” [ http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernandez/ ] . It is an interesting discussion. At the risk of violating etiquette; I was part of the discussion, and in one of my comments I did a breakdown of exactly what is likely to happen to Seoul if the Norks come south. Here is a link to the comment containing that discussion.
http://tinyurl.com/3yacytw
There is also a discussion on that thread of the exact nature of the humanitarian disaster that North Korea will become and why. There are no “good” answers or easy ones. Even without the additional stress of counter-attacks, I would be very surprised of half of the 20 million North Korean civilians survived.
Subotai Bahadur
Feh. Desert Storm II. IMO, the main war will be over in days, with little US intervention needed.
SK is equipped with 1990-2000 era US weaponry and tactics, NK 1960’s, at best.
SK has thousands of battle-trained vets from Iraq and Afghanistan. IIRC, they fielded the third largest troop size in Iraq.
SK has Patriots to defend the airspace, and MLRS systems with 3X the range of NK artillery, ballistic tracking radar to locate the NK artillery, and GPS guided rockets to take them out.
And China? Well, the vast majority of those LG and Samsung TVs and Blue Ray players are actually made in China, by the same companies that make iPods and Macs and Dell and HP PC’s.
But the humanitarian problem in NK that follows the war, yes, that will be the real disaster. No doubt, fear of that is the biggest impediment to a pre-emptive SK strike, and /or Chinese approval for escalation.
A number of commenters question Barack Obama’s will in a Second Korean War scenario. I also question it, but I’d like to build a scenario and ask a question about / to the progressive Left:
Suppose North Korea attacks the South. They decide they can pull it off, they decide they’ve been insulted, there’s a power struggle, whatever. The North attacks the South, and it’s clear from the first moment that the North is the aggressor.
In this scenario, in the first couple days at least China sits back. We’re talking with them behind the scenes but China says nothing publicly other than “war is bad”.
South Korea mobilizes quickly and defends itself. In the usual fog of war it becomes clear that Seoul has taken a beating, that the North has had some initial, limited success, and that the South Koreas are plenty mad and want our help.
With that scenario in mind, a question for our progressive Left friends: would you support an all-out response in support of South Korea? If not, why not? And what would be the limit of your support to South Korea if the North attacked and was clearly the aggressor?
I’ll answer this, because I’m not sure many people on the left can or will. It would deflate their bubble.
Technically, sinking a ship is already an act of war. Withdrawing from the Armistice agreement is really just icing on the cake. I think the South should provide a measured response, because let’s face it; the South has a lot to lose since they have been busy building a country for the past few decades. The North Koreans, on the other hand, have socialized themselves back to a pre-industrial society. It is the world’s largest producer of 60,000+ participant musical propaganda shows and nothing else. This should also be taken into consideration when thinking about the strength of our ability to deter the North. M.A.D. will not work because communist policies have done the country worse than war since the official Armistice agreement. At least in war, you can try to sue for peace. The North Koreans have been living under one of the most repressive, murderous yet strangely comical regimes of the past few centuries with no one to surrender to.
That said, in the case of NorK aggression, I think we should jump in asap to limit the damage done to our ally. So far, the Obama presidency has been tinkling all over our allies’ legs and it wouldn’t hurt to show that America is ready to slap a tyrant in the face when the cards are down instead of inviting them for a talk show tour so they can air their sob story on Oprah.
I really wish all of these arm chair generals would quit spouting off about how short and easy this possible war with North Korea would be.Wars seldom go as planned,by either side,and all kinds of things can happen.I am reminded when I read this drivel of the things that were said shortly before hostilities began ,by both sides,regarding the brevity of the oncoming conflict, the American civil war.It is sheer madness to write these things,especially when you pepper your statements with talk of tactical nuclear weapons,as if no one else in the world possesed them.I believe one reason people speak in such a careless and ignorant fashion is a lack of imagination,which does not allow them to see the untold suffering wars bring.And please,do not speak to me of cutting and running when poor little South Korea needs us the most.I would think that sixty years of being their for them,three years of which were spent in a hellish war,would be enough.Grow up.T.
Those arm chair generals said the Gulf Wars one and two would be short and easy victories.
And they were.
I haven’t worn Uncle’s suit since the southeast Asian war games but back then we worked with some Korean Marines. Those boys were tougher than woodpecker lips. I have read that
south Korea has jumped ahead of even us a generation or two on some weaponry, too.
I also know that we have gone far ahead of the rest of the world in counterbattery fire, to the point that the fastest way to lose a tube and it’s crew is to fire it at one of our units. I contend that if the Norks make a serious move south it will be a bloodbath for them. Yes, South Korea will lose some people and property, as will the US forces there, not near what everyone fears. the biggest mayhem will not be from all those semiobsolete Nork tubes but from their Specop forces. And, I suspect we have planned for them, too.
Every U.S. soldier and Mairne I’ve talked to who trained with ROK Marines speak of them with awe. They are appropriately named and I pity the poor NK’s they get in their sights.
You are right about South Korean weapons – some are a generation beyond ours. They have upgraded their F-15′s beyond ours in some ways. The K-2 Black Panther Tank they are starting to build uses an Abrams frame but is way beyond our latest. It would be kinda fun to watch them tear up old Chinese and Russian junk.
OK, I might make some unpopular statements here…. The real wild card here is the North Korean soldier. The truth is, when we were fighting Iraqi regulars they didnt do much fighting, they did a lot of dying, scattering and surrendering.
Their heart wasn’t in the fight, not even a little.
There was little or no will (on the part of the average Iraqi soldier) to fight after the sustained air campaign and arguably little or no will to fight before it.
The last time we fought regulars who fought back was in Vietnam, and the NVA actually fought back. This, I believe, would make that look like a picnic.
Which brings us back to North Korea. I think the case can be made that 50 years of super hardcore Communist brainwashing could produce our worst nightmare–a determined enemy.
I have no doubt they are willing to fight, and I think that part and parcel to that will to fight is the understanding that in order to “win” they have to inflict casualties the likes that have not been seen since WW2.
If you think about the firestorm of artillery they can lay down on everything within 30 miles of the border… earth shattering is the term that comes to mind.
If you think about their stockpile of real bona fide chemical weapons–and the will to use them…
Are any of you familiar with Soman, Tabun, and VX? These things, to the people who know what they are, are just a scary memory from the cold war. With North Korea they are not a memory–they are what will be used.
I don’t know. That sounds a lot like the hype about Saddam’s fearsome “Republican Guard” before Desert Storm. How did they do? And if NoKo’s tanks and jets don’t have enough POL, the troops won’t even have enough to eat. In that land of famine, the troops won’t have much fuel in their tanks either.
A lot of people on this blog are seriously underestimating North Koreas chances of winning. Let’s take a few items here:
1. It is not in the least unthinkable that North Korea could start the war with a nuke – an airburst designed to generate an EMP that would render most South Korean and US electronic equipment useless. How well would US airpower be able to function with most of its avionics and radars fried? For that matter, how well would US army equipment such as radios work?
2. Even without nukes, North Korea could target every air base, port, vehicle park, and barracks in South Korea with artillery, surface to surface missiles with chemical warheads, mine-laying mini subs, and special forces. A missile/korean spetsnaz blitz could go a long way in neutralizing South Korean and US assets.
3. North Korea has a large and tough Army. And literally tens of millions of expendable peasents. Imagine an Army of starving peasents moving through the DMZ towards Southern lines. Does anyone thing US and South Korean forces will shoot at them? Imagine how easy it would be to mix North Korean forces with those crowds, and let them strike inside Southern lines.
4. Also lets not forget North Koreas allies. China might like to see a single Korea under a friendly government. Iran and Venezuala can be counted on to help fight the US, and you can be sure various terror groups will take advantage of the chaos as well.
5. Finally, there is the question of national will. Who here thinks Obama has the will to fight a war?
I give the NK’s the same chance the Iraqi’s had in Desert Storm. Remember the press warning us that Saddam has the “Fourth Largest Army in the World!”
I doubt the NK’s would surrender as quickly as the Iraqis – they will just die in place.
To get an EMP, you have to lift your hydrogen bomb into the ionosphere.
The NorKs don’t have hydrogen bombs, and the bombs they do have are big enough that they need the largest of military transports to move them.
Most S. Korean cities are not within range of NorK artillery. The missiles they do have aren’t all that accurate and are slow to launch. Not to mention the ROK has excellent counter missile equipment.
NorK has a large army, but it isn’t that tough. 1950′s era equipment with a questionable maintenance history. As to the men themselves, starvation has been so bad that the average NorK is a foot shorter than the average ROK. Starvation amongst civilians is so bad that if marched to the border, the vast majority would die before they got there.
1.)Unlikely.They may have designed a nuclear device–but its doubtful whether it’s been weaponized at this point. However that possibility can’t be discounted because they’ve been working on that project with the Iranians who actually have money. People have disputed this point before but….it simply can’t be ruled out.
2.)Absolutely true.
3.)Absolutely true.
4.)China doesn’t want to fight us or the South Koreans–we’re their business/trading partners. To them, Nork is like a retarded stepbrother that they constantly have to bail out for fondling neighborhood kids and pets.
But Iran etc–may very well take advantage of the situation to cause all sorts of trouble.
5.)Obama…jesus, what a joke that man is. I made this point over and over during the campaign. As much as I am disappointed with McCain on so many levels, I’d rather have him behind the wheel on this one.
Earth 19 – concur point by point. Also for next 72 hours Osan AB has runway construction (posted NOTAM). Three WMD concerns:
a) if one/two working nukes, use as an EMP device over ROK or Japan (or China if they are feeling feisty – understand NORK troops just reinforced along Northern frontier)
b) as stated elsewhere, deliberate targeting of nuclear power plants in ROK or Japan with intent to bust containment vessel
c) prepping the battlefield biologically; presume CDC monitoring that closely
FYI – of the 4 NORK subs that put to sea on Tuesday, 2 have already limped back into port . . . and there is apparently a US SeaWolf in the area monitoring ops
No opsec violations above; all public info posted elsewhere within last 24 hrs
To create an EMP, you need a hydrogen bomb. The NorKs don’t have those. You also have to lift it into or above the ionosphere. The bomb that the NorKs do have ways many tons.
Really, REALLY Scary Scenario:
NoKo lobs their nuke on a long-range missile so that it detonates above the West Coast of the USA, creating an EMP pulse which fries every electronic circuit and puts 1/2 of North America back into the pre-Industrial Age.
Not as farfetched as you might think.
Actually, it is pretty far-fetched. You can have an EMP that wipes out every (non-hardened) electrical circuit in a small area, or you can have an EMP that effects the entire west coast. Of course the effect would be limited to long power lines, tripping breakers and damaging transformers. You’d end up with widespread power outages whose length depended on how far from the generators you were.
Of course this would be an attack on the US with nuclear weapons, and act that we and every other nuclear power have stated is a justification for nuclear annihilation. It would be a very short, and very bloody war. I don’t know if remediating a country would cost less than integrating North Korea.
In fact the worst outcome of your scenario would be that the attack would give the Feds an excuse to bail out California, perpetrating the economic cancer that infests the state.
The NorK’s don’t have a weapon capable of creating an EMP.
The longest range missile they do have will barely reach Hawaii.
They would have to reduce the size and weigh of the nukes they do have by a factor of at least 1000, to get it to fit on a missile.
Vinny, NorK was a mad rogue state long before Bush came on the scene. It was NorK that assassinated half the cabinet of ROK when they were visiting Burma by blowing them and their Burnese hosts up at a public function. There have been constant NorK provocations for sixty years. Bush’s description of it as evil was nothing more than accurate.
Nor has it been closed off, except by its own choice. NorK got lots of food and other goodies then responded by betraying those providing the goodies. They got goodies for stopping their nuke program but then never stopped it. Even when they get food aid, for example, it does not go to the starving people but to feed the army or is sold to get money for imports for the rulers. And the reason there is so much poverty and starvation there is because it is a Communist country, nothing else. It continues to be a starving mess even when other countries are giving NorK massive amounts of food and goodies.
NorK would have to rise immeasurably to be considered a basket case.
As for your idol Obama, there is nothing brilliant about him or his administration. He needs to rise consdierably to be considered even mediocre. All his “diplomacy” has got him nothing but contempt from Aamerica’s foes to whom he reaches out, only to be spat upon, and horror from our friends, as they contemplate a world in which nobody tries to keep order. Remember the Islamic Republic of Iran’s amiable response to Obama’s desperate attempts to reach out to them? The top officials there called him a “House Negro”.
Time for you to recognize reality Vinny. The sky is blue here, not green.
Wow, Brits are as brain dead as us Americans,
I am going back, real quick. TA TA
One thing I wonder is this. MAybe we should just simply not make this our problem.
South Korea is a modern country with a prosperous well fed citizenry of about 50M. North Korea is a Stalinist nightmare of about half that, eating tree bark.
The US force in South Korea is a token, 28,000. The real defense of South Korea is the South Korean army.
Despite his attempts at missiles and nuclear weapons, Kim is no real threat to the US. He is a threat to South Korea and maybe Japan.
So, if no US troops were in South Korea (or Japan) this ceases to be a matter of superpower games and rather a regional issue.
So maybe the real answer is to leave. The South Koreans and Japanese don’t want us there anyway. And it is not the Cold War. North Korea does not have 1500 ICBMs pointed at us. South Korea can defend itself. And considering the differences in size and economy, if South Korea cannot defend itself, it is not worth defending.
You sound like a solid obama supporter, tuck tail and run. You will regret the day that war starts as it will lead to further aggression around the world due to the totally inept leadership of obama. He brings new meaning to incompetence, even makes j carter look competent.
Add in the North’s extensive WMD programs and the equation becomes too convoluted for anybody to truly predict. At this point, we can only pray that if war comes, it will be bloody conventional war and not some dystopian battlefield, where the only people alive in Korea are soldiers with hazmat suits.
This from a website regarding accuracy or bombing in WWII: In the fall of 1944, only seven per cent of all bombs dropped by the Eighth Air Force hit within 1,000ft of their aim point; even a fighter-bomber in a 40 degree dive releasing a bomb at 7,000 ft could have a circular error (CEP) of as much as 1,000 ft. It took 108 B-17 bombers, crewed by 1,080 airmen, dropping 648 bombs to guarantee a 96 per cent chance of getting just two hits inside a 400 by 500 ft area (a German power-generation plant.)
Reasonably modern artillery is much, much more accurate than our bombing in WWII. Assuming that the NORKs would concentrate on high value targets rather than lobbing shells into Seoul indiscriminately, the havoc that could be wreaked on a large city in a day or two of sustained barrage by 10K tubes would be enormous. Power generation and transmission, water pumping, communications, transportation, etc would all be out of commission.
I’m not sure if the artillery that the NorKs have could qualify as reasonably modern or not.
They also have a problem with ammunition that has been in storage for awhile.
They also haven’t had the opportunity to properly train with the equipment.
Not to mention the fact that the accuracy of bombs has increased orders of magnitude since World War II. wpw is making an odd comparison of WW II bommbin and NK artillery.
The nk artillery is no where as accurate as ours, they are still in the dark ages technology wise.
Regarding what how Obama’s action or inaction would be perceived if the NKs invaded. Obama has a win-win situation. As you stated the war would be over, most likely, in a matter of days. A period of time that is much to short for the US to get any reinforcements onto the peninsula. So Obama can declare full-support, say we are Federalizing the Guard and Reserve to send to Korea and then when the shooting stops in a week he can call off most of our mobilization.
One sour note, so far I have not heard of any carriers being sent to the region. This is extremely odd, whenever Kim sneezes we usually dispatch a battle group, but nary a word this time.
The guys over at strategypage.com wrote an updated version of “A Quick and Dirty Guide to War,” and they included some information on Korea. Basically, they gamed out probability scenarios regarding a conflict on the peninsula through 2015. Roughly, there’s a 30% chance of the status quo. There’s a 30% chance of a North Korean civil war (Korean Lebabon), where there’s no conflict with other powers. 30% chance of a civil war that expands to include other powers, and necessitates an intervention by either China, SK, or “the UN.” The rest of the probabilities broke down the chance of war between the North and South. There was only a slight chance of a NK victory, and a .5% chance that the war goes nuclear. If a war does break out, the financial damage will be vast, and the humanitarian crisis will be unthinkable. The Chinese don’t want refugees streaming over the border (it would kill their economy), and they do alot of trade with SK, so they don’t want SK’s economy destroyed, either. It’s in everyone’s interest to keep things as they are.
Given the statements that are coming out of the north, and the actions that are being taken up there, it appears as if KJI’s poor health has left him unable to maintain total control, and the various factions are jockeying for power. Regarding an invasion, the North has old equipment, low amounts of gas & oil, and poorly motivated troops (not including special forces). Basically, and conventional invasion can’t be sustained, and the resulting counter-attack by the south would devastate the north. I can give other thoughts about whether or not China would tolerate a united Korea, if anyone’s interested.
We will have a war in the koreas because of obama, his weakness encourages it, china will benefit from it, the rest of the world will be the looser.
You can be sure that the North Koreans are carefully examining the response of South Korea and its allies, Japan and the United States. Should they once again back down and make noises about neutrality, disarmament, and appeasement things will go from bad to worse. We need a more robust response. The North Koreans should understand that any aggression would be met by a “resolute rebuff” as the Russians used to say.
I enjoyed reading your assessment. I have to take issue with some of the comments about the current US administration. So far, their reaction to this crises has been spot on. I have full faith that this President-like those before him-will live up to our alliance both in spirit and letter.
In my opinion-at the heart if this crises is a power struggle over the succession that will be decided next month. I suspect that Major General Pak Rim Su, or another group of senior officers, are contesting the leadership succession. I believe the torpedoing of Cheonan was meant to undermine Kim Jong Il (and his clique) by showing the South could be confronted more forcefully… and also show who the military’s allegience lies with.
There is a possibility a very dangerous and possibly violent power struggle is already underway.
The only way this ends in war with the South and the US is-if the leadership is cornered… or backed into a situation where they either fight or are humiliated and lose face.
There is another possibility. It could be that the North-frustrated with a lack of payoffs at the negotiating table-may opt for a limited war in order to gain serious concessions at the armistace table. So, what we may be seeing is a scaling up of tension-leading to tightly controlled clashes-like artillery exchanges and/or submarine warfare, air-to-air combat, ect. The objective would be to secure massive economic aid in exchange for peace, without political change or giving up their nukes.
1. The NorKs can do as the Palis do and simply lob a few missles and rockets to whom it may concern and let their subs sink an occasional warship of other sea target, possibly even do the Somali pirate attack/hostage taking effort.
2. The NorKs don’t have to come south in a mass to do harm, individual terror squads inserted by air or sea with commando raids designed to inflict casualties and spread fear much like the actions of the pakistan taliban.
3. We, RoK/USA will do just as the Israeli’s do which is fire a few strikes back but not covert or overt invasion.
Intifada.
The Palis and Taliban have shown the NorKs how to fight us all they have to do is keep hitting us but hold back any attack that would trigger a response. The RoKs/USA will sit as does the Israeli’s do now with Hez in Gaza and just take the hits as long as we don’t respond they will hit us if we do it’s a threat of total war with the NorKs and China. NorK civilians will cover every gun position, airbase or tank unit and ya just know what our RoE will be.
The NorKs have already won the war, Obama knows this as does our military We ain’t gonna blow the world up over a few missile and rocket attacks on RoK soil we damned sure ain’t gonna kill a bunch of NorK citizens being used as human shields.
No matter what happens short of a Division of NorK military busting through the DMZ we just won’t respond except as we do now in pakistan a few drone hits to try and kill the HQ/3C and that’s about it.
I doubt this results from a succession crisis. I doubt there is any succession crisis at all. It is exceedinly likely that All information coming from inside North Korea is disinformation. It is possible that the apparent deterioration of Kim Jong Il is also disinformation.
It is likely, in my opinion, that the supposed succession – genuine or not – serves as a pretext for provocation, and that the provocation serves greater strategic interests, not some discrete scheme of the North Koreans.
I think it extremely unlikely that North Korea is in any way independent from China, except as required to maintain the fiction of independence, which is so useful to entangle the West in its own good intentions, both with regard to North Korea and China.
Probably Kim Jong Il does not rule anything at all, except the minds of the poor North Koreans.
More likely this is a campaign to destabilize the post-World War 2 strategic order along the Pacific Rim. Perhaps the recent near-coup in Thailand and the Islamist insurgencies Indonesia serve the same purpose, and are more or less coordinated as circumstances allow.
It cannot be a coincidence that this occurs while Obama is in power, after substantial political and military damage has been inflicted by OIF, and while we are committed for primarily political reasons to investing more assets into Afghanistan – and exposing them there. Avid news readers know that NATO itself is probably an empty fiction at this point.
Notice: North Korea has broken its usual diplomatic/extortion strategy. A nuclear program – even a nuclear weapon – has much to recommend it such that anti-war types can be invited to fail to see its strategic and aggressive implications. “Isn’t war worse than a nuclear weapon used? Isn’t the country faced with external enemies, such that it’s desire for nuclear weapons is rational and comprehensible? Isn’t that why WE have them?” A sunken warship and 46 dead sailors is not is ignorable.
And in any case North Korea is almost uniquely positioned to be incomprehensible to the usual useful idiots. It is so vicious and anachronistic and alien that the only recourse a good Liberal – whether conservative or liberal – has is to mirror imaging. “There must be a succession crisis – the violence comes now to coerce the internal political rivals to rally around the present regime and facilitate its selection for succession.”
Perhaps.
But what if North Korea is simply a Chinese rook, the image of its independence as carefully and purposefully cultivated as the image of its Stalinist-anime absurdity?
What if this provocation is a true escalation, not simply some new extortion technique? What if this provocation is designed in such a way that forces South Korea, the United States, and Japan to respond in a material way? What if it has been designed in such a way to be a win-win for the relevant strategists? That is: if there is a war, South Korea will sustain serious damage, the North will eventually lose and regime liquidated, but then there will be no alternative to some kind of extremely painful and destabilizing and distracting period of integration between the North and South?
Perhaps the defeat of the North Korean regime will be the perfect pretext for Japan to say: the Cold War in the East is finally over, and the USA should now go. And then the same could be read as a good reason to do so in Germany.
What if such an event, beyond its destabilization of the US-SK-Japan relationship and the commitment of resources, is designed to eventually create Chinese influence over all of the Korean peninsula, in an era where China’s ascendance is supposedly a foregone conclusion and the United States, trapped by its Treasury disposition and reliance on Chinese manufacturing, is in a mood to acquiesce, strategically, to Chinese claims to hegemony over the whole Pacific Rim?
This is not the Pueblo incident. Then consideration of Soviet and Chinese power restrained SK/Western reaction. Now Russia is supposedly retreating and China is supposed to be a friend of capitalism.
Then everyone could say: “Isn’t the Cold War and its structural hostilities finally over, yankee? Yes: let’s just pursue our natural national conflicts by commercial, economic means as your liberals have been urging ever since 1913′s “The Great Illusion”? After all, we’re so economically interconnected now that Great War is unthinkable, right?”
In short, consider that, possibly, there is a much grander design at work here, and things are getting very dangerous indeed for the world as you know and love it.
I just have a really hard time seeing a chinese hand in any of this. They have nothing to gain. Think about it–the chinese are already acting out a long term goal by simply being the globe’s manufacturing center, why on earth would they want to have a war on their border?
As I’ve said before, North Korea is a thorn in China’s side. Stability in their sphere is what they want. South Korea is a trading partner as is Japan. If South Korea and Japan are damaged–as they would be seriously by this kind of fight, China would be damaged as well.
In addition to this, China would have to take part in the rehab and rebuilding of North Korea. I think they’re pragmatic enough (from having observed us) to know that nation building is no fun.
I fail to see the problem – from our point of view – of our allies realizing we aren’t a “rebiable partner” aka their personal bodyguards. It’s not like they’re going to attack us. At most they’ll just say nasty things about us. “How dare you not provide us freee security you filthy Americans! Leeching off your security umbrella is our right as the French! We demand free security from you forever even though we hate you and undermind you in foreign affairs at every chance we get! We fart in your general direction!”
Too many people both in America and abroad act like it’s our duty and responsibility to protect the entire world from themselves. Screw that. We turned South Korea into one of the richest countries in the world from an impoverished 3rd world craphole. And we’ve protected them from leftist imperialism ever since. And what have we got in return? Absolutely nothing other than the Koreans hating us and wanting us to leave just like the rest of our ingrate “allies”. I say we grant them their wish and abandon them completely. Let South Korea worry about their own problems. I fail to see how a Korean civil war could affect us or is in anyway our concern. If America had a civil war I doubt Korea – or any of our “allies” – would intervene or even give a crap. In fact, they’d probably be eating popcorn as they enjoyed the carnage.
The cold hard reality is that most people in the world hate our guts – including our supposed allies. They simply don’t see us as liberators or champions of human rights and freedom. They see us fat redneck neo-nazis who are the #1 threat to world stability and prosperity. I say we we grant them their wish and end all of our quite one sided defense agreements and let the world deal with their own problems once again without America serving as the world’s police. Let them try to maintain world order with the UN, the EU, whatever. They say that’s what they want all the time so let’s give it them.
North Korea has already won! At this time, june 2010, they are almost self sufficient in every field of their economy-Starving, North Koreans?!!! — You guys don´t really know what you are talking about. You are very far away from reallity. North Korea has achieved in agriculture what only a few countries in the west have. They don´t waist water like we do in the west. They have more than 1500 dams and more than 2500 water reservoirs well placed to supply their field with water. There is nothing compared to that in western countries , not even in France or Germany.
About houses or new villages? —They are teaching west countries like Canada and others how to plan new villages.
Just don´t fool yourselves, guys; we are not the best any more!
we have too much comments now is time to act “res, non verba”" !
after dec. 31st 2010 I’ll ignore all about this korea conflict if n korea is not taken care of…… mr laughter !
It’s so comical when I hear some of these racists saying the president is weak. What country have you guys been living in. You all know what happens in America when you piss a black man off. You shut your mouths, and run home so you can talk tough on your computers.