North Korea Says No To Nukes
[For another take, read Claudia Rosett @ PajamasXpress: Condi Rice Wants Us to Stop Worrying and Learn to Love Kim Jong Il]
Today, North Korea appeared closer to abandoning its nuclear weapons ambitions than it has been in twelve years. The UPI reports:
WASHINGTON, June 26 (UPI) — North Korea submitted its nuclear program declaration Thursday, a move that will lead to the lifting of some sanctions, a White House statement said. … Under an agreement reached last year between countries, North Korea agreed to denuclearization in exchange for in exchange for diplomatic and economic incentives. North Korea pledged to disable all of its nuclear facilities, the statement said, “and tomorrow (Friday) will destroy the cooling tower of the Yongbyon reactor.”
The United States will lift the provisions of the Trading with the Enemy Act “as well as announcing our intent to rescind North Korea’s designation as a State Sponsor of Terror in 45 days,” in response to North Korea’s actions.
A negotiated disarmament of North Korea appeared to be well under way with the signing of the Agreed Framework in October 1994. Under the terms agreed between the Clinton Administration and Pyongyang, the North Koreans agreed to stop the construction of two nuclear reactors capable of producing plutonium in exchange for an American funded light-water reactor and fuel oil.
But in 2002 a Bush administration diplomatic delegation accused Pyongyang of cheating, alleging that they were secretly operating a highly enriched uranium program, which provided an alternative route to the Bomb. In the acrimonious atmosphere that followed, North Korea once again withdrew from Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty, the United States declared North Korea part of the Axis of Evil and the Agreed Framework collapsed.
The proponents of the Agreed Framework accused the Bush administration of derailing a done deal. Selig Harrison, writing in Foreign Affairs in 2005, cast doubt on claims the North Koreans were really cheating, arguing that although Pyongyang was indeed acquiring centrifuges capable of enriching uranium, they were in quantities insufficient to support a serious weapons program. Although “Pyongyang clearly did violate that accord by pursuing uranium-enrichment efforts … and thus, technically, violated the 1994 Agreed Framework as well”, the Bush administration had overreacted and by diplomatically confronting North Korea, risked provoking them into using their existing stock of fuel for weapons development. When Pyongyang conducted its highly publicized atomic bomb test in 2006 the Agreed Framework appeared to be in ruins.
In retrospect, one of the factors which provoked the Bush administration into treating North Korea with suspicion was Pakistan. Harrison wrote at the time:
A June 2002 CIA assessment that was leaked after the Kelly visit said that Pakistan had provided North Korea with centrifuge prototypes and blueprints, but that it was uncertain how many, if any, centrifuges North Korea had made from them. … Some intelligence suggesting this possibility did surface during the Clinton presidency. “We raised fairly generalized concerns with Pakistan about nuclear cooperation with North Korea,” recalls Robert Einhorn, Clinton’s assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation. “But we didn’t cite chapter and verse because we didn’t have chapter and verse to cite.”
But although US-North Korean relations appeared to have broken down under the impact of new intelligence, a new negotiated track to disarmament was already being laid in August 2003. Called the Six Party Talks, it differed procedurally from the Agreement Framework in that it involved, as the name suggested, six parties: China, South Korea, Russia, Japan, the US and North Korea itself. Under the new approach, the disarmament of North Korea would be linked not merely to a normalization of relations between Pyongyang and Washington, but to a comprehensive settlement of tensions that had existed since World War 2 and the Korean War, adjusting Pyongyang’s relationship with Seoul, Tokyo and Washington.
The talks steadily progressed through six rounds. Even North Korea’s supposed nuclear weapons test could not derail it. Indeed those results were denigrated shortly afterward by CIA Director Michael Hayden, who declared, “the United States does not recognize North Korea as a nuclear weapons state … because the nuclear test last year was a failure.” The door to a comprehensive agreement was still open to diplomats.
Today’s dramatic announcement of the decommissioning of the Yongbon nuclear power facility and the delisting of North Korea from the rolls of terrorist states represents the results of the sixth round of negotiations and brings the process close to its final phase. The agreement of February 2007 creates a three stage end game along which we are halfway along.
In the first part of the deal, North Korea said it would shut its Yongbyon reactor within 60 days. In return, it was promised 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil, to be supplied by the five other countries involved in the nuclear negotiations.
In the second stage — where we are now — North Korea agreed to declare and disable all its existing nuclear facilities, a process that would be supervised by experts from the US and the International Atomic Energy Agency. In return, it has been promised a further 950,000 tons of fuel. The US has also agreed to remove it from the list of state sponsors of terrorism.
A third stage would deal with any nuclear weapons that North Korea may already possess.
The architecture of the endgame is obvious. The first two stages are designed to destroy the last vestiges of the North Korean capacity to produce any more fissile material. The third — and possibly more difficult — stage is to wrest from Pyongyang’s grip any nuclear material that may already exist. The Times Online says that the original sticking point, the resolution of the uranium enrichment program, has been deferred to the very end.
It is unclear whether it will also include an inventory of the precise number of nuclear warheads, or whether North Korea will own up to a second programme of uranium enrichment that it has always denied, despite US accusations. If these elements are missing, the Bush Administration will be accused of compromising its principles for the sake of moving forward the Six Party Talks on North Korean nuclear disarmament, which also include Japan, Russia and South Korea as well as the host, China.
Time will tell whether the Six Party talks will succeed in denuclearizing the Korean peninsula or whether it will founder, as did the Agreed Framework before it, on some new difficulty. But two factors make the new agreement more robust than the 1994 agreement. First, the multilateral format means that any North Korean double-cross would alienate not only the United States, but South Korea, Japan, Russia and most importantly, Pyongyang’s patron China. North Korea has a lot more to lose by welshing on the Six Party Talks than it did on the Agreed Framework.
Secondly, because their fissile production line will effectively be dismantled — the Yongbon cooling will be demolished — North Korea’s remaining blackmail leverage consists of a mere handful of low-yield nuclear material. And with the United States positioned to watch Pakistan and Iran, the future of any clandestine program is in serious doubt. When Hayden scoffed at the yield of the North Korean nuclear weapons, he was signalling that Pyongyang did not have enough cards in hand to effectively threaten South Korea, the US and Japan. Without a working nuclear program to build more weapons, Pyongyang has nothing to gain from cheating. North Korea is like a man with a pistol surrounded by a company of infantry, and the logical thing for it to do is lay down its arms and fix its economy. While North Korea has long played the game of intimidation to get its way, this time it may be out of ammo.
I’m sure there’s a “quid” and a “quo” in here, as always, and more than a little semantic juggling. Another piece of Bush’s legacy-hunt falls into place. He has “disarmed” two-thirds of the made-up “Axis of Evil,” which was entirely composed of non-actors in the 9/11 attacks.
Reagan brought Grenada to its knees. George Bush HAD to defeat at least one hopeless basket-case of a country. Bravo.
I wonder where their ammo went? No mention above of NK nuclear treachery with Syria, which happened earlier this year. Given their track record of slimy betrayals, it’s hard envisioning this anti-proliferation regime having much more success than those other-time arrangements which have all failed in the past.
Grenada, haha, very nice. Then there was that whole thing with the Russians. I know, it’s easy to forget.
It’s amazing to me that six years into this war we still have people who do not understand the rationale, or cannot grasp that the motive or purpose behind it actually could be more complicated than “revenge for 9/11″. I’m not entirely sure whether this is a failure to explain it on the Bush administration’s part (which seems possible) or some sort of psychological flaw in its opponents (which evidence often seems to suggest).
Why should we trust Kimi,has he ever kept his word?
I just heard on the news that the Chinese have just received 19 thousand pages of data on the North Korean programs.
Bush has announced he is relenting and they have not even read the data.
I hope this is one of those situations where McCain says he will wait until the documentation has been assessed before commenting further.
It’s little outposts of overt stalinism that make me believe supposedly paranoid 1961 defector Anatoliy Golitsyn WAS RIGHT. Of course we shouldn’t trust this puppet freakshow – we can’t trust anyone whose relationship to us or the rest of the world includes Communist states, period. Is it still true that you have to go kowtow to a gigantic golden statue of Kim Il Sung when you land in Pyongyang? C’mon: this is ridiculous. The question is what exactly are we Really getting out of this – or is Nork going to be diplomatically remaindered for evry successive administration to get to have a moment of diplomatic resolution for domestic US consumption? I sure hope that’s not the strategy, because it’s obvious no one here much cares, except like John Bolton or something.
I say we get that whole ninja death squad special forces idea thing going. This talking to people on the other side of the looking glass – we beg them to show us what we want to see, and then they show it to us! – is just embarrassing at this point.
I’m telling you guys – look up the book “New Lies for Old.” If you google it you will be sent directly to conspiracy New World Order territory, but just try it out. See if you think it sounds like a book written by a madman, and tell me the present situation – which has looked like a question without a real answer for a few years now at least – suddenly looks quite clear indeed. And by the way I’m not one of those conspiracy types in the least, I just found the thing the other day googling KGB Defectors.
*Although “Pyongyang clearly did violate that accord by pursuing uranium-enrichment efforts … and thus, technically, violated the 1994 Agreed Framework as well”, the Bush administration had overreacted and by diplomatically confronting North Korea…*
Ok – this person Selig Harrison is scum. Are people like this for real? This midget Kim Jong Il is a trustfundbaby who sits atop a Prison State. Somehow I think at the root of the problem is the type of imagination that, for all its verbosity, cannot under any circumstances imagine what a police state really is. It’s not possible that they can and also string together clauses like the above. It also goes a long way to understanding how they can believe the USA is a police or a fascist state: they obviously have no idea what that quantity is.
But to return to the subject of the post: what I want to know is, are we EVER going to play the game against Communists like they do? I understand we underwrite international order and have certain obligations, but come on – France doesn’t even have 150 working tanks anymore, what the f*ck do they matter? Who cares what these people think? It’s not like our obsequiousness gets us anything but more condescension and hatred anyway.
Temporarily “believe” North Korea if it advances the game vs. Nork-China-Russia-Iran in our favor, but certainly don’t *actually* believe them.
Sorry I’ll shut up now.
Here in Israel I’m wondering why the USA isn’t pushing for definitive answers on proliferation. N Korea holds the evidence, the smoking gun in regards to Iranian nuclear weapons programs. From Ballistic missiles, to Plutonium reactors, to Uranium enrichment, all these elements have been proliferated to Iran.
At what point exactly does America dig in its heels and get the evidence to present to the world that Iran is full bore developing nuclear weapons with N Korean assistance as late as this past September? If diplomacy is your strategy then why don’t you negotiate from strength with EVIDENCE as opposed to the never ending weakness? You are already giving in, so firmly give them more and take the spoils!? I’m having difficulty seeing the achievement here in ‘dismantling’ the N Korean program when we all openly acknowledge that the more secret parts, the MOST dangerous parts past or present will remain obscured & hidden!? It would appear that only in the small minded State Dept lackeys deskworld is this considered an achievement, perhaps I am misunderstanding but Nuclear / WMD proliferation is supposed to be the #1 threat to the USA, but that part is just going to slide?
We are receiving the message loud & clear here, we are on our own and where there used to be 2 world superpowers, that dropped to one, and now there a none because America behaves like a castration victim. You are running away from Iran in Iraq, running away from Iran in N Korea, running away from Iran in multilateral talks, running away from Iran in national security policy, it’s embarrassing. This could be ended in three days. You are cowed to even challenge Iran in the court of world opinion! Just like Mahmoud mocks every day and he is apparently right. At least when he mocks us we tell him we’re going to hit his program or kill him.
When these Islamists develop nukes in the next year and they close the straights of tiran or use other threats and oil goes to 400 the jig will be up. If you are feckless in the face of N Korea, feckless in the face of the boastful but in reality weak Iranians, you will never challenge a nuclear armed Iran and the American Empire will be over, it’s not very good news for us here in Israel. We need a strong America at our backs, not chicken little.
I’m trying to wrap my head around this ingenious strategy of ever weakening diplomacy? So we will hit Iran and do the heavy lifting, but the whole world will remember that America was sick in bed like an old man!? – It seems clear to me you will spend the next century meekly defending your interests & losing every single time. Please pass over another slice of ‘humble pie’ and get used to the fact that on the box it will say made in Iran and will cost 85 dollars. That’s the only achievement I can gleen from this glorious State Dept win. (Sorry about the length)
To poster “saus”: Wow. I think I understand the desperate sound in your post given Iran’s genocidal regime, but your detestable statement that America is doing nothing and acting like an old sick man can’t stand unchallenged. The last time I checked, the US has been shedding blood and treasure in Iraq, which a mere six years ago was your nations’ most trenchant enemy, and which now poses little to no threat against Israel. How short your memory!!! How bitter and wrong your accusations seem in that light.
Also, the last time I checked, it’s Israel and your hideous leftist government under Olmert which is unilaterally surrendering to Islamic fascists at every turn, and acting overall like a sick old man. I wouldn’t have volunteered that assessment except for your vicious slanders against America which seem to be more a projection of your own predicament than a reflection of anything real or accurate about Israel’s staunchest ally on planet earth!
Morton I agree with you totally about Israel’s govt, it is a walking disaster – We will still take out Iran. I’m not sure what the US in Iraq has do to with Israel, Walt & Mersheimer may think that the US went to Iraq for Israel but here in Israel Iraq was not a threat, we already took out the Iraqi nuclear threat. We were much more concerned with Iran. We support the Iraq mission fullheartedly, saddam was a maniac, he attacked Israel, Kuwait, fought the USA, ignored the UN for a decade, tried to kill the former president, used chemical weapons on his own people etc etc so we were happy to see him go like everyone who is sane – but the impetus was not Israel by any stretch.. Our most trenchant enemy? I really don’t think so, that was in 1991 20 years ago. We have Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria, & Iran as our enemies, we never went to Iraq to fight (at the USA’s request, both in 91 & in 2003)
I’m not slandering the US, in fact I think the US is the greatest country on earth, if you cannot read the disapointment in my post I apologize that wasn’t clear enough, that is dispaointment that the greatest country on earth is not acting so great of late – I’m calling the policy out for what it appears to me. Are you not running from Iran? Instead of dealing with the situation the entire army retooled to MRAPS over the last 5 years, that armor was developed by Israel incidentally to help protect American boys, because we truly are #1 allies and we treasure your fighting men & women as much as our own..
If you leave it up to Israel, is that not because America is seemingly unable to handle this national security challenge? How that is slandering the USA I’m not sure, and Israel’s predicament is America’s predicament. They chant death to America in Iran, not just death to Israel, and if nukes go off they will not be limited to Israel.. I asked many questions in my post, if you want to talk about them by all means but I am the most pro-America Israeli you will find. Have you seen the way 60% of American citizens speak of America, its leader, its government? I am not the one slandering America Morton..
I don’t think I or we are desperate, we are going to have to go it alone and we will – That is I am afraid the most stinging indictment of American policy I can muster, because it means it has failed. I am disapointed, If you mix America & American policy you are making a mistake in my opinion. Policy changes every 4 years, alliances do not.
Actually, I’m not so sure that this isn’t a bit of savvy politics — opens the door even wider for the U.S. to act outside of U.N. majority, and you know what they say about keeping your friends close, but your enemies even closer.
Pyongyang goes into aggreement with the U.S. and other 6Party nations and the U.N. wakes up with egg on its face (once again) — and N.K. is given the choice of 1)dropping assistance to terrorist states; 2)stopping talks and facing new sanctions (which I think McCain would call for but Obama might not and I think a lot of American voters know it — so Bush may be trying to win a domestic prop here as well); 3)tries to cheat, gets caught, and then the cat’s out of the bag and they’re open to any sort of action.
And also, my Israeli friend, look at it this way — would the U.S. be better able to operate without having to deal with UN approval for everything, and would that be a better thing for Israel?
“Should we believe Kim Jong Il this time?”
In a word. No.
Yes, that’s four words.
Bite me.
Pay some attention to the Lisa Ling documentary on North Korea. A frightening look at the deification of Kim Il Sung at first and now of Kim Jong Il.
All actions will be geared towards maintaining that deity status. That is the only thing they are capable of. So whatever they do with the nuclear material will be for that purpose.
The Deity though has his weak point. The ship Pueblo. It is maintained not as a monument to a tactical victory over the US but as a symbol of invincibility. Soon as some cheating can be confirmed, sink the Pueblo without warning.
Then open the next round of talks. Their surrender will be what will really be discussed.
No offense, jenna, but this is the problem. The US does not fall under the direction of the UN, in any way at all. This whole idea that the US seriously looks to the UN for anything, or has to worry about acting outside of the majority, is a fairly recent invention that has no real basis in history. The UN was never a serious organization. It was used as a communication channel during the Cold War, which was the level of its competence, but other than that it was just a nice little utopian dream that people didn’t mind keeping around, like a pet. That changed with Bush Sr.
It was part of Bush Sr.’s idiotic globalist ideas (shared by all liberals and despised by most conservatives). He was the one who took the opportunity offered with the disintegration of the USSR and wasted it trying to empower the UN, which any thinking person understands is a recipe for disaster (it is always dangerous to empower any entity that is competitionless and peerless – that is basic evolutionary theory). One of the only decent things Clinton ever did was to ignore the UN, though he did it for a stupid reason that was the Euro’s responsibility. Unfortunately, Clinton served to empower the UN in other, more insidious, areas. George W. started out with an appropriate attitude toward the UN (when he threatened to leave) but just going to the UN after 9/11 was an awful mistake. In any event, the UN screwed up and Bush never carried out his threat. Instead, he took back to his father’s penchant for empowering the embarassing organization even more. Bush’s foreign policy went into total liberal collapse in his second term. This North Korea deal is just one more example.
Trust them? To what end?
They’ve already exported their nuclear program. Wasn’t North Korean nuclear proliferation a ‘red line’ for the U.S. in the past? I guess we don’t have red lines anymore.
Everything is apparently a-ok.