Comments on: No Retreat, No Surrender http://pjmedia.com/blog/no_retreat_no_surrender_1/ Wed, 15 Feb 2012 16:37:08 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: Robert Mayer http://pjmedia.com/blog/no_retreat_no_surrender_1/#comment-14216 Robert Mayer Fri, 28 Sep 2007 04:00:51 +0000 http://dev.pajamasmedia.com/blog/no-retreat-no-surrender-2/#comment-14216 The American government has little to zero influence over Burma, so whatever words that come from our leaders may sound good, but are simply unrealistic. I am also sure that China realizes that this issue will not be on the front burner forever, so the longer the junta can hold out, the higher its chances for survival. Honestly, I am betting on the junta. They have the weapons and largely the desire to use them. I am not talking about being simply bloodthirsty, but at the end of the day, the internet alone isn't going to stop them if it comes down to it. Sure, they probably don't want to have to go that far, especially now, but it is a huge possibility. As for China's "quiet diplomacy" that we've been hearing about the first few days -- I seriously doubt it. We have heard about this on North Korea for awhile now with no result in terms of regime change or improvements in the human rights situation. China's main influence comes in terms of its own citizens abroad and living in Burma. These ethnic Chinese, though making up a minority of the population, control the vast majority of the wealth, from small business to mining companies. They are savvy and well educated, much more so in relation to the rest of the population. They are this way in large part not simply because that's how they are, but because of cronyism on the part of the junta. They get their contracts, they junta gets support. Most of what is keeping the junta afloat is this internal symbiotic relationship. The military autocracy cannot cede power because it would mean the vast confiscations of Chinese wealth, which props this autocracy, and the ethnic Chinese cannot let the jnnta fall because of the obvious ramifications. Not only has this relationship sown the seeds of their own [eventual] demise, but a massive ethnic retaliation. Not only is their money but their lives at stake in keeping power! I am not saying it is impossible to see a democratic transition, but as author Amy Chua may predict, complete dissolution of the current regime may sow the seeds of genocide. I doubt the junta will allow the situation to reach this point. The best we can hope for is a development in power-sharing, where the pro-democracy camp is able to get power in policy-making, but with the implicit threat that any move that would drastically target the current elite's wealth specifically for confiscation would result in another military coup. That's what I think the best outcome will be, but I don't think that will happen right now. The American government has little to zero influence over Burma, so whatever words that come from our leaders may sound good, but are simply unrealistic. I am also sure that China realizes that this issue will not be on the front burner forever, so the longer the junta can hold out, the higher its chances for survival.

Honestly, I am betting on the junta. They have the weapons and largely the desire to use them. I am not talking about being simply bloodthirsty, but at the end of the day, the internet alone isn’t going to stop them if it comes down to it. Sure, they probably don’t want to have to go that far, especially now, but it is a huge possibility. As for China’s “quiet diplomacy” that we’ve been hearing about the first few days — I seriously doubt it. We have heard about this on North Korea for awhile now with no result in terms of regime change or improvements in the human rights situation.

China’s main influence comes in terms of its own citizens abroad and living in Burma. These ethnic Chinese, though making up a minority of the population, control the vast majority of the wealth, from small business to mining companies. They are savvy and well educated, much more so in relation to the rest of the population. They are this way in large part not simply because that’s how they are, but because of cronyism on the part of the junta. They get their contracts, they junta gets support. Most of what is keeping the junta afloat is this internal symbiotic relationship.

The military autocracy cannot cede power because it would mean the vast confiscations of Chinese wealth, which props this autocracy, and the ethnic Chinese cannot let the jnnta fall because of the obvious ramifications. Not only has this relationship sown the seeds of their own [eventual] demise, but a massive ethnic retaliation. Not only is their money but their lives at stake in keeping power!

I am not saying it is impossible to see a democratic transition, but as author Amy Chua may predict, complete dissolution of the current regime may sow the seeds of genocide. I doubt the junta will allow the situation to reach this point.

The best we can hope for is a development in power-sharing, where the pro-democracy camp is able to get power in policy-making, but with the implicit threat that any move that would drastically target the current elite’s wealth specifically for confiscation would result in another military coup. That’s what I think the best outcome will be, but I don’t think that will happen right now.

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