New Poll: Texans Will Re-Elect Gov. Rick Perry
There has been a dearth of polling on the Texas governor’s race lately, but I have in my hands a poll that was taken October 15-17. Its data set is on the large side, 1,200 respondents, spread proportionately across all of Texas’ regions and media markets. It’s a joint poll by the Texas Civil Justice League, the Texas Farm Bureau and the Texas Medical Association, not an internal of either campaign, though these groups do lean to the right and the TMA and the TCJL’s PAC have endorsed Perry (the Farm Bureau did not endorse either candidate). It has a 2.9% margin of error. The sample yielded 38% self-identified Republicans and 23% Democrats, which isn’t out of line in this Republican state in this Republican-friendly year. Of those who did not identify with either party, 18% lean GOP, 10% lean Democrat, 11% don’t lean. That 23% for Democrats indicates some significant erosion in their strength: in the history profile, 32% had voted in previous Democratic primaries.
If things hold up and nothing crazy happens in Houston, then it’s time to say “Goodnight, Bill White.” Rick Perry will be re-elected to his third full term as governor of the Lone Star State. The poll shows Gov. Perry with a 48-37 lead over the Democrat, with the Libertarian and Green candidates in the outer darkness and 11% undecided. Assume that the undecideds break slightly for White since he’s the challenger, and you end up with this November 2 result:
Perry 53, White 43
The 48-37 is about where the numbers have been since Perry opened up his positive “Texas is Open for Business” ad run plus his security themed media campaign, indicating that Texans who may have flirted briefly with White have been reminded that Texas is in comparatively strong shape and have therefore come home to Perry. “Don’t fire the coach if the team is winning” seems to be the thinking. Absent a very large October Surprise, this race is over and for Republicans, it’s time to run up the score in the state House and congressional races. Early voting totals around the state hint that that’s already happening. Early voting has shattered records nearly everywhere.
It’s not all good news for Gov. Perry. His right direction/wrong direction is a soft 45-42 and his personal favorable/unfavorable is 42-38. That’s a little too close for comfort. But the right/wrong track for President Obama is devastating: Just 32% of Texans believe the country is headed in the right direction under this president, while 62% believe it’s headed in the wrong direction. His personal fav/unfav is 32-57, putting Obama 25 points under water in Texas.
There’s more, and it’s all bad news for Democrats. Question 3j asks: “And do you favor or oppose requiring every American to buy or obtain health insurance?” That’s the individual mandate that’s currently being contested by, among others, Texas’ Attorney General Greg Abbott in court. The results: 60% oppose, 33% favor, 7% undecided.
Question 5a: “And which of the following groups do you feel is most to blame for the rising cost of health care in Texas?” Survey says, it’s the federal government, at 27%, with insurance companies, lawyers and big pharma rounding out the top four. The Democrats have been trying to pin that on Gov. Perry for years. It hasn’t worked, at all.
Better dead than red. (I just made that up.)
Is that a solicitation for a kaishakunin?
I just thought this up…you are blue , you have no clue
I expect Rick Perry to win by minimally twelve percentage points. He has plenty of money to run countless numbers of TV and radio ads. Bill White is probably near broke. Perry can help turn out more voters to complete the sweep throughout all of Texas.
Yeah Bill White did such a wunnerful job making Houston a sanctuary city now he want Texas to be HIS sanctuary state……no thanks duffuss…..Oh and let’s not forget all the crime he whitewashed from the Katrina scum as he tells us all that it was just a minor blip on the statistic screen…yeah right……
Houston is not a sanctuary city. Please check your facts before replying. When Rick Perry was questioned on the inaccuracy of the statement, he threatened the asking reporter, stating “you’re on thin ice”. Sadly, people who get their politics out of 2 minute political ads such as yourself may not know better. By the way, before calling anyone names you should really learn how to spell them- D_U_F_U_S.
To Texans who have been paying attention to the coming impact of the fed’s expanding medicaid and the EPA’s declared war on refineries and energy companies, it’s clearly a case of choosing between increasing taxes or fighting in court to prevent the assault from Washington. Gov. Perry clearly has chosen the latter.
Looking at White’s record as mayor of Houston is chilling, since he spent public pension funds to avoid cutting city costs. Perry, on the other hand, has cut state government across the board to bring costs in line with the lowered tax revenues.
The unknown factor this year is massive voter fraud. Since Houston had over 21,000 fraudulent votes cast for the Democrats in 2008, we need a voter ID verification system in the worst way. Was Houston the tip of an iceberg? How many fraudulent votes will be cast this year?
>>Was Houston the tip of an iceberg?
good question
Perry supports the notion that most Texans walk around in empty hats.
Uh huh. 80% of new private sector jobs created in the US since 2005 were created in Texas. And we’re the dumb ones. If Democrats cared about job creation, Obama would be spending all his free time here studying what’s happening here. Instead, he wants to install the California/Michigan model nationwide.
To stace: As that old saying go: there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. A quick look at things indicates that Perry has about as much to do with Texas “private sector” growth as he does with the color of tomatoes. After 9/11 the US government (well Bush and his gang of ne’er-do-wells) went on a spending spree on “security,” and while doing so migrated mucho thousands of jobs from government agencies to their contractors on a parallel outsourcing spree, with most of the people doing the same jobs with the same security clearances except under the auspices of a private contractor. Since Texas has always been the base for a lot of military and intelligence operations, they got a rather nice piece of all this “private sector” job growth.
Perry by at least 10. Take away Houston and Austin and it would be 20. Read it and weep BC.
Nice try. California is still the number one recipient of defense spending. But California businesses and taxpayers are fleeing to Texas and other states because of job-killing policies. Texas has become number one in Fortune 500 companies, even though California has a much larger population, and it used to have a much more dynamic economy.
California’s economy is a bit larger overall than Texas’s so the growth in defense spending wasn’t enough to offset losses in other areas. Also, there’s been a lot of this kind of nonsense going on in terms of getting on the “security” gravy train. If you were to draw a 50 mile or so wide circle around Washington, DC and call that a state, you would see insane “private sector” growth. But it wouldn’t exactly be something responsible leaders should want to embrace.
Again, 80% of ALL new private sector jobs in the US are being created on Texas. 4 out of 5. Think about that number for a little while.
Obviously, not all of that can be defense related. It’s not all energy related either. It’s trade, high-tech, manufacturing, bio-med, ag–everything.
I don’t give Perry all the credit for it. Republicans have controlled every statewide office for the last decade, and even some of our Dem legislators have been fiscally responsible as well.
Right, BC. Texas just got lucky or something. No, wait, it is all the government money. This is the new Dem talking point? Really? I guess this is the best they can do.
Fact is, this has been ongoing for decades. The migration of northerners to the South can be seen in electoral college maps. Go to http://270toWin.com
and see for yourself. Every State touching the Great Lakes has lost Electoral College votes, i.e. population. NE States have been stagnant or have lost representation, too.
Now look how many votes TX has gained each new decade.
What’s appalling is how when Dems migrate to TX, it never occurs to them the reason they had to uproot was because of how they vote. They continue to stupidly vote Dem. Except this election, where folks are wising up.
BC, you are the definition of troll. I remember your postings during the last election, parroting the party line that you were some kind of moderate, because that was the meme that year. Now, you are unapologetically a hardcore Leftist. Lies, smears, and propaganda are your tools as a Leftist operator. You disgust me.
and this is why I complained about the stupid PJM article a few weeks ago that suggested there was a “battle” in the Texas governor race.
More interestingly, the survey confirms what I’ve noticed – Texas voters are not focused on our biggest state issue – the looming Texas state deficit. That will be the big fight in the 2011 session, not the border, not photo ID but how to fill that hole; hopefully by lots of government spending cuts.
It will be unfortunate for Perry to win again. There is a lot of substance behind corruption and ethics issues. He sells bits of Texas in the way that Clinton sold the White House. He advances himself from an egocentric position and damn-all-else.
Having said all that, Perry or White are both OK for Texas. At least we don’t have clowns like Sheila Jackson Lee or Harry Pelosi running for governor,…yet.
If we can solve the illegal immigration problem that will help solve the school and healthcare problem in Texas.
Not only will Perry win by 10 pts, I predict that the TX-GOP will gain more than 10 new seats in the TX House, which will enable a strong GOP for the redistricting in 2011! Here’s my wish list for TX. Legislature for 2011:
1)Start the session with Rule 1: If Dem’s flee the debate, laws will be passed without them (no more running off to OK!)
2) Redistricting – 3 of the 4 new Congressional districts as Republican seats
3) No Trespassing in TX!(our improved version of AZ law)
4) Voter Photo-ID
5) Pro-Life legislation – Sonogram Bill and Pro-life license plates
6) Pass a budget with no new taxes
The State of TX has begun to use a valid driver’s license with a voter registration card to verify the identity of the voter… electronically.
I just voted on Monday in Harris County. My precinct had all electronic voting booths and verification system. They’re not taking any chances, especially after that warehouse fire.
Plus, True The Vote has sent quite a few people to watch the polls around Harris County. They’ve been quite effective, because some people have begun to squeal in pain.
And it’s not November 2nd yet!
And no, Bill “Mr. Sanctuary City” White doesn’t have much of a chance, especially after this state has ADDED JOBS during this recession, unlike elsewhere.
As a foreigner, I’ve always been puzzled why, in America, the conservative end of the political spectrum flies the communist colors. How did Republicans become the “Reds”? And how did the commies end up flying the conservative blue flag?
It happened in 2000, thanks (not!) to the media, who inverted the colors on their electoral maps during the Bush/Gore debacle.
I think it came from TV broadcasters on election night always had map graphics showing the states as red and blue. For some reason a habit developed of red being the Republicans and blue being the Democrats. I think the actual color selections were just based on TV set design and chance.
The military uses RED to designate enemy and BLUE for friendlies. The media sees conservatives as enemies and liberals as friendlies. Hence the coloration. JMHO.
In Canada the parties are colored RED for liberals and BLUE for conservatives, just as they should. The watermelons party is colored as watermelons. Moreover, the conservative party is known as the Conservative Party. Ditto, for the liberals.
The start of the red/blue story goes back to the first presidential election that was “broadcast” in color. The three networks agreed to use blue for the incumbent candidate or party, and red for the challenger. This worked fine all though the years until Al Gore (the incumbent party) went all pissy and retracted his concession to Bush.
Now the networks had a story that they could milk for all it was worth, and using the old red/blue identification system is a thing of the past. It’s more important for them to harp on the red state/blue state thing.
LEW, as a foreigner you may have noticed that the main stream media is considerable left of center. They are the ones that control the visuals on the TV election maps on election night. They decided on this color split. Why? I don’t know. It could be that in military war games the Red side are the enemy. Give the leftness of the media I’m sure that they see conservatives as the enemy. YMMV
#8 Kevin, Good list. I’d also like to see the two gun rights issues, parking lot and campus carry. Those may be a bridge too far.
Speaker Straus is understandably focused on the budget, but I think it’s also critical for the future of our state to get a voter ID law passed, despite what happened last session on that. The Dems really showed us what they fear most.
Does anyone know if a voter ID bill is in the works?
#11 Throw in open carry and it’s all good.
Actually it is much better to carry a concealed weapon because the bad guy knows you are armed and will if crazy enough try to neutralize you who is carrying openly. If the bad guy does not know if you are armed or not then it is hard for him to determine what would make it easiest for him to carry on his or her plan!
It’s better still if you don’t lose your permit or go to jail if your weapon becomes visable at some point.
I’m not a big fan of Perry, I think he is a thief in the style of Clinton. However, I much prefer the stereotypical corrupt politician to the utopian ideologue. C. S. Lewis had a good point there. I don’t think Bill White is that utopian ideologue; but he’ll damn sure carry water for the ones we already have.
Bill White promoted the sanctuary city ideology in Houston… that is as good as slitting his own throat politically.
The local utopian rag, the Austin American Statesman endorsed White? I wrote them a letter asking why, did they want Bill White to turn Texas into a sanctuary state, like he did Houston a sanctuary city? Gee, what a surprise they didn’t publish it.
We have enjoyed several years of prosperity under Rick Perry’s guidance (with outstanding help from the Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst) and I can’t understand why *anyone* would want to vote for a Democrat for *any* position in the country, given what they have become.
Diddo #13Bart. Perry is as about a corrupt as they come, but he at least has sense enough to listen to the Tea Party groups and talk reasonably. Bill Whites incessant commercials are basically a list of crap he wants to spend money on in hopes of spending us out of the recession. No thanks.
Mostly, I’m happy Texas has an extremely weak governorship, and a legislature that only meats for 180days once every other year.
Rick Perry is the living example of old school politics. Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst is responsible for the general business sense of the Texas government not Gov Good Hair. He is only interested in benefiting himself and his friends. He just a short sighted nitwit who keeps beating that conservative drum so the sheep will follow. But then Bill White ain’t no prize – Good Lord is this the best we can do in Texas
Before we lived here in highest-unemployment-in-the-nation-thanks-to-Harry-Reid Nevada, we lived in Texas. My son was born there, and I wish we could go back.
have you ever read an interview of Mr White? He is the whiniest little b##ch I’ve ever read. Wa- wah- my parents were schoolteachers, Wa- Wah- we lived in a city with indoor plumbing, but we weren’t rich. Come on. My family is from that time- try no plumbing at all out in the country. At least Perry grew up on a dirt farm. He gets where Texans came from.
Mr Perry has the good sense to not feud with Mr Dewhurst. He facilitates him. I say that’s all to the good.
Texas is the only state I know where a bureaucrat, my friend, facilitated so much efficiency via technology that her job became unnecessary- and that was the end of her job. Nowhere else is that true- anywhere else, she’d have been kept around.
I’m a recent refugee from Uber-liberal New York. I keep hearing about the “problems” with Texas politics. Seriously? At least hear the legislature doesn’t lock the other party out of the house OR carry on separate sessions–getting NOTHING accomplished. All on the taxpayer dime!
Now, if we could just get the border secured, we could concentrate on getting the rest of the state economy in order.
Republican candidates should be running ads against the Dems. Forget their opponents. Just highlight all the awful things of which they are flat-out guilty. “It doesn’t matter what they say. This is what they do!” Their opponents will just whither.
LOL@Bill White.The man looks like Howdy Doody. Talks like Howdy Doody.He is Howdy Doody and the hispanics legal and ilegal are pulling his strings.
PT19Ge http://cra3Zzphu47hvm4bbmp82f0vwJs.com