New Poll Brings Bad News for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt
Egypt’s parliamentary elections are set to be held in September, giving the secularists only about four months to mobilize against the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists that have been organizing for decades in Islamic institutions. The Brotherhood’s ground game is unmatchable, but a new poll by the International Peace Institute provides some hope. It shows that is it the secular Wafd Party, not the Muslim Brotherhood, that has the most support in Egypt.
According to the survey, the Wafd Party has a 46 percent approval rating, followed by the Brotherhood at 38 percent. Hosni Mubarak’s National Democratic Party still has significant support with a 26 percent favorability rating. When respondents were asked whom they intend to vote for, 23 percent said they are backing the Wafd Party. The Brotherhood scored 12 percent, only two points ahead of the NDP.
The secretary general of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, has a very strong lead in the presidential race with 37 percent saying they will vote for him and an overall favorability rating of 80 percent. Mohamed Tantawi, the chairman of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, has 16 percent saying they will back him. Ayman Nour, another secularist, has an approval rating in the 30s. Mohamed ElBaradei, however, has an approval rating of only 10 percent and only two percent of Egyptians intend to vote for him. These findings explain why the Brotherhood is only aiming to win 30 percent of the seats in the next parliament and says it will not run a presidential candidate, though el-Baradei has been closely tied to them.
Another important finding of the poll is that 60 percent of Egyptians want to preserve the peace treaty with Israel, though there is an important qualifier: This must come with the establishment of a separate, independent Palestinian state. It is encouraging that the Egyptian people look kindly upon a two-state solution, but it is unlikely this new state will be created any time soon. There is a significant danger that support for the treaty will steadily erode.
The poll also found significant hostility towards Iran. A previous poll found that only about half of Egyptians look upon Hamas favorably and 57 percent disapprove of Hezbollah. The IPI survey found that 36 percent are more likely to vote for a party that is opposed to Iran and its nuclear program. Twenty-two percent said they would be less likely. Amr Moussa, though he is more hostile to Israel and the U.S. than Mubarak, is also a strong opponent of Iran.
Thank you for a rather more nuanced and less alarmist view of events in post-revolutionary Egypt.
Before this I was relying on “Popeye the Sailor Meets Ali Baba’s Forty Thieves”
Before this I was relying on “Popeye the Sailor Meets Ali Baba’s Forty Thieves”
That’s an unusual nickname for Debka… ;D
Israel should go to the newly-elected leader of Egypt, as quickly as possible once he’s elected, even before he takes office and tell them, very clearly and very publicly:
“We support a Palestinian state. We have absolutely no problem with Palestine having its own state, even if that state is carved out of a piece of Israel. We will begin serious discussions about a Palestinian state as soon as the Palestinian government condemns terrorist attacks against Israel and her people, and takes SERIOUS steps to stop these attacks, at least those coming from within the Palestinian population.
“No nation on Earth, not even a Muslim nation, would be foolish enough to support and partially finance the founding of a neighboring state who openly supported terrorism against that neighbor state.
“As soon as these steps are taken, we will begin serious talks about how and where to set up a Palestinian state. Egypt is a large and powerful nation with many ties within the Palestinian community. We are positive that with your influence, these steps will take only a very short time.”
Embarass the new leader and maybe he’ll actually consider putting pressure on the Palestinians to stop the attacks. If not, Israel has a perfect reason to NOT grant the Palestinians their own state.
Helping to build a government or nation that openly hates you would be sheer stupidity!
The secretary general of the Arab League, Amr Moussa, is now a moderate? Sure, and it never rains in London. If the Muslim Brotherhood doesn’t win outright, it will still have a huge amount of influence and power in the country. And it won’t be long before they take over. Remember, the Brotherhood is used to the “long fight.” It has been around for decades and will continue chipping away at the Egyptians until it takes over, either through the ballot box or by force.
It may be well and good that the “people” don’t want the Muslim Brotherhood to take over, but in the end it means nothing. If the Muslim Brotherhood can take over enough of the army, the people really don’t matter. They will simply take over the country. Just remember, most Iranians don’t want the mullahs remaining in power. And how did THAT election go for them back in 2009? Tell me again, I forget. Oh, that’s right, the mullahs and the Revolutionary Guards had people slaughtered in the streets until they were able to regain control of the the country. Yep, this democracy thing really works well the the Muslim world.
And all this is based on what facts, what mechanisms? Long track records work two ways and if someone hasn’t done squat in 83 years that’s its own story.
Tell us how the Sufis will play into this and then I want to hear about the Salafists.
We’re back to Popeye and Bluto and Iran again.
Facts mean nothing, just your desire coupled with the MB’s intent – demonstrable likelihood as a result of actual capability based on facts on the ground is no where to be found in this story.
Polls aside, the clear winners in Obama’s putsch against Mubarak are the Muslim Brothers and Iran.
The Brothers are NO longer outlaws, they are front and center.Iran is now re-establishing ties with Egypt despite what some of the public may or may not want.
All in all, Egypt is now in the Islamist camp, and the challenge of the west(and Israel in particular) is to pre-empt their plans or checkmate them.
Obama has purposefully sided with the Islamist camp-Iran and Syria, the two players who were NOT called out by Washington as Mubarak was.The only questions are – why did he do this, who is writing the script and what is the end game for Washington?
Seems clear to me, from my perch in Israel, that Obama wants pro western allies to fall.
I think as you do, although nothing could make me happier than to be completely wrong.
Yep. I have to agree.
Basically a 50 50 split. It comes down to which side is willing to kill the other. I would go on but the answer is obvious.
Some hope appeares but the Islamists are the masters of the political provocations that can change the emotional Arab`s opinions. Gaza,Lebanon wars or Western soldiers in Lybia for example.
Anyone who does not think the Ikhwan or Islam for that matter does not act with generational thinking is a blind fool. For 1400 years, this despotic political system of slaughter, fear, brainwashing, oppression and subjugation has ebbed and flowed. It’s flowing again, and this time Islam may win. The West has turned into Eloi and Islam is the Morlock – we are being eaten – we are lied to, we deny reality and believe in the fairy, hence well prepared over time for the slaughter – we blindly believe it is not happening – we say “nah, it’s the 21st Century!!” yeah? so what!! This is Islam – it’s a death cult, it’s alien to enlightenment and our culture and it’s on the global march again – like a virus out to kill the host body!! It’s so wrong, we say “It can not be!!” Sadly, it is – Islam’s children are raised to kill the West, and their children and their children and so on until Khalifa!!! The Ummah!!! Look at the banners and flags – all have globes!!! WE are Dar al Harb!!!
Our last few administrations were way too p.c. Our current administration is aiding and abetting our slaugter. Obummah is hastening the destruction of the West – seemingly with great purpose, evil determination and light speed – utterly mindblowing!!!
High Crimes and Misdemeanors have been committed by Obummah – he consults not with Congress and throws America into war – illegal in letter and immoral in scope – an oil play, place to test weapons, place to train Arab armies and airforces for action against Israel and announce, enforce and inculcate into international law a wacky, illegal “R 2 P” doctrine.
Time to Impeach Obummah.
I concur entirely. Numerous friends of mine here in London absolutely refuse to believe that religion could possibly have such an influence on the world in the so-called rational, sophisticated 21st century. They think because we have i-pads, wireless broadband, and twitter, that religion is redundant…yeah, good luck with that one…
They say “sharia’s not as bad as it’s made out to be”, “islam’s just about personal spritual guidance – they said so”, “it’s all our fault. if we solved the problem of the palestinians, it would all be over” or, the old stand-by, left-wing classic, “you’re being rascist” – remind me what ‘race’ Islam is again…I’ve forgotten. There I was thinking it was a fascist, totalitarian, military/political ideology wrapped up in the knowing deceit that it is a religion. Silly me.
and nice referencing of ‘the time machine’.
12% will get the Muslim Brotherhood a seat at the table in the next government. If that happens they will become a recognized Party and become legitimate political party which is a big step forward for them
Think you and Dan above are both right. They have infinite patience and are comfortable taking the long view. They have a saying, “You have the clocks, we have the time.”
Well, once the MB sees this poll, they will certainly be adjusting their approach to things. After all, the democratic tradition in Eqypt goes back several days, and we can expect they will be twisting themselves into pretzels to persuade the public. The MB will probably begin a persuasive advertising campaign based the benefit of western-style modernity.
This poll by the secularist IPI (they are lefist Columbia U/NYU climate change alarmists) conflicts with the Pew and Zogby polls. These show an Egyptian public more greatly inclined to the Islamizing, than to the secularizing, of Egypt.
“There are lies, damned lies and statistics”
An important finding of the poll is that 40% of Egyptians do not want to preserve the peace treaty with Israel.
50% of Egyptians look upon Hamas favorably and 43% approve of Hezbollah.
The IPI survey found that 22% percent are more likely to vote for a party that approves of Iran and its nuclear program. For 42% of the Egyptians, a nuclear Iran doesn’t pose a problem.
A frequently mentioned Pew poll from 2010 shows strong support for Sharia-based justice. 84 % supports the execution of apostates.
Islam, the U.N., and 9/11
Islamic nations are historically accustomed to mass murder, religious mayhem, unimaginable bloody atrocities. That’s the only explanation and not a defense for the fact the last, best hope for a peaceful world, the United Nations, has failed not only to condemn the unprovoked terrorist, sneak attack on America almost ten years ago but to even arrive at a definition of terrorism.
The U.N. is quite capable of declaring an international Earth Day or to pass toothless resolutions against Saddam Hussein and Israeli aggression but to define or take action against the worldwide Islamic war against the West? That doesn’t pass muster or qualify for official condemnation or even meaningless sanctions.
The reason? Aside from the United Nation’s established corruption, proven ineptitude, and ingrained stultification, the primary reason the U.N. can’t get around to condemning September 11th, 2001 as the acts of terrorists or get to the subject of defining terrorism is the resistance of the OIC, the Organization of the Islamic Conference.
The OIC, a collection of 57 Islamic states–a number which happens to coincide with the number of American states our president says he visited during the 2008 campaign–refuses to approve . . .
(Read more at http://www.genelalor.com/blog1/?p=4198)
The UNHRC is the OIC – it’s a simple as that. And yes, I too noticed Obama’s Freudian slip about the number of US states coinciding with the number of states in the OIC.
Incidentally, watch Obama next time he makes a speech. He wags his finger at the listener in exactly the same way as muslim dictators/imams do. The Dhimmi-in-Chief is doing well for them…
EACH AND EVERY ONE OF THE MEMBERS OF THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD SHOULD DIE A SLOW LINGERING DEATH.
Four a.m., waking up for prayers
Gotta be devout, gotta go downstairs
Eight floors down, elevator’s out,
Hasn’t worked since 1993
Puttin’ on my burqa, everybody’s prayin’
Gotta get down to the micro bus stop
Which way is Mecca, I see my friends (My friends)
Kickin’ in the back seat
Sittin’ in the back seat
I got no choice about
Which seat can I take?
It’s Friday, Friday Prayers
We’re goin’ to Tahrir Square
Everybody’s lookin’ forward to the weekend, weekend
Friday, Friday, no more Mubarak
Gettin’ down on my knees on Friday
Everybody’s lookin’ forward to the revolution
Partyin’, partyin’ (Yeah)
Israel, Israel (Yeah)
Fun, fun, Gaza, fun
Lookin’ forward to the border bein’ opened
7:45, we’re drivin’ by a tank
Cruisin’ so fast, my head scarf’s tight
Fun, fun, think about fun
You know what it is
I got Al-Ikwan, you got Al-Ikwan
My sufi is by my right, ay
I got this, you got this
Now you got a salafi sandwich
I doubt if anyone has to be admonished to take these polls with more than a grain of salt. In the Middle east respondents do not say what they think but what will not get them killed. For example all those polls that showed that the Iraqis wanted the US out of Iraq; they were asked of a people terrified of giving an answer that could get them killed, as anything approaching a pro-US answer could very well do.
I doubt if the situation in Egypt is as bad as it was in Iraq, but I encountered the same attitude towards preemptive self-preservation among the Druze on the Israeli Golan who had nothing to fear.
In the end don’t they vote however the Imams tell them to?
The poll was taken by telephone and involved 615 people. if that’s landlines, it was 615 middle class educated households. even if it wasn’t that’s 615 opinions in a city of 20 million people…
the middle class in this city (Cairo) are living in a fool’s paradise. They’re assuming that what they want is what will happen (because it did in January’s revolution). What they forget is that the great unwashed, uneducated, unpaid, unemployed, recipients of Muslim Brotherhood medical aid, legal aid and soon to be television channel influence, also have the vote…..
Expats here are quietly leaving, or planning to leave. What we have now is the wait for Round 2. That will kick off after the end of Ramadan in early september…. just in time for the elections.
This one has a long way to run yet, and the Moslem Brotherhood are used to playing a long, long game.
Wait until the mass assassinations start. It doesn’t matter how much support “secularists” have.
Get Real Ryan,
Egypt will be “One Man, One Vote, One Time” – ISLAM would have it No Other Way.
Dr. Shalit