New Jersey and Virginia Governors’ Races Heat Up
Although eyes of the national media last week were fixed on Cairo and the looming Supreme Court confirmation battle, the real political action in 2009 is in two state gubernatorial races which may signal the direction of the 2010 congressional races and test whether Barack Obama reset the country’s political dial. As Dan Balz of the Washington Post put it:
A lingering question from the 2008 election is whether the enthusiasm surrounding Obama’s candidacy was singularly focused or transferable to other Democrats when he is not on the ballot. His candidacy was fueled by the passions he engendered among his followers and by the strongly anti-Bush sentiment in the country. To what extent did the results in 2008 signal affirmative endorsement of the Democratic Party?
The 2008 election brought a surge of participation into the Democratic primaries and significant shifts in voter registration that changed the shape of the electorates in many states, Virginia among them. Will all those new voters continue to participate this year and next?
Last week the Republican Party did not commit collective suicide in New Jersey. Rather than select the firebrand challenger (who combined a desire to accept Guantanamo detainees into New Jersey prisons with a longing to dismantle the Garden State’s cities and to enact a flat tax which increased taxes on a majority of its citizens) New Jersey Republicans opted for former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, who is running on a platform of public integrity and fiscal conservatism. With incumbent Governor Jon Corzine trailing in the polls, Republicans hope that, as Mark Twain joked, reports of their death in the Northeast are greatly exaggerated. (And frankly, if they can’t beat Corzine with double-digit unemployment and a budgetary train wreck, it is hard to imagine how they might ever win a statewide race in New Jersey.)
Meanwhile in Virginia, Democrats go into Tuesday’s gubernatorial primary in a three-way horserace. Do they choose the likeable and more moderate Creigh Deeds, whom the Washington Post endorsed, or the “carnival broker” and former Clinton confidante Terry McAuliffe of Global Crossing fame? Maybe they will go with Brian Moran, who would have to convince voters outside of Northern Virginia that he is not too liberal on everything from gay marriage to guns and also will have to evade the ethical stench which follows his brother, Rep. James Moran (now caught up in a growing ethics scandal in Congress).
Waiting for the Democratic winner, with high approval ratings and a boatload of cash is Bob McDonnell, the former state attorney general. With roots in voter-rich Northern Virginia and a reputation for getting no-nonsense bills through the often stalemated state legislature, McDonnell hopes to put to rest the conventional wisdom that Virginia is now “too blue” for a fiscally conservative Republican.
Tucker Martin, McDonnell’s press secretary, tells Pajamas Media that Virginia Democrats have misread the 2008 results:
Virginia remains a center-right state. The president’s most effective television ads here were focused on cutting taxes for the middle class. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine spent their time on the trail forming sportsmen coalitions and promising not to raise taxes. Democrats in Virginia have always been careful to package themselves as “Virginia” Democrats, not “national” Democrats. That distinction has disappeared this year. All three Democratic candidates are running on far-left platforms that are indistinguishable from the national Democratic Party. Democrats are gambling that Virginia is not newly purple, but instead permanently blue. Political history argues that their gamble is not a wise one.
“The firebrand challenger.” You mean Lonegan, the genuine conservative. The Republicans again chose to go with a moderate and will again be beaten.
Recent polls indicate that Lonegan would probably win the general election and Christie would not. I hope Christie wins the general for a number of reasons but there’s no indication that he appreciates the structural issues that need fixing. Lonegan at least says he does.
Case in point: The “raise taxes on most citizens” is Christie’s campaign slogan. He quickly stopped the ads that quoted Lonegan as saying that the Property Tax Rebate is a “gimmick.” They were probably working against Christie because the rebate is a gimmick, letting general revenues cover the cost of local schools by rebating the property taxes from the state budget. Most people–or at least most Republicans–see that there is a problem here, and that we have a chewing-gum-and-bailing-wire fix. And most Republicans are finding the status quo more and more troublesome.
Rubin seemed confused. She usually is not. It seems as if she confuses politics with principles and is saying loss of principles is the price of being elected. Then what is the gain? Why should the choice be between a democrat without principles by party plank or a republican without any real principles.
I agree with njcommuter. I voted for Lonegan last week – his positions were totally mischaracterized in this article – and by Christie. A flat-tax and a break-up of Newark’s corrupt bloated school district sound like excellent ideas.
That said, I hope Christie is successful this fall. It is a state election so national politics play only a small role. There is a sense that we have had no adult leadership in NJ since Whitman left office. McGreevy’s shenanigans were well documented (by Christie’s investigators), and Corzine has been in bed literally and figuratively with the public employee unions that are bankrupting the state.
National politics have added to the perception that government is out of control. With the lack of adult leadership in Washington these days, there will be a perception that a moderately conservative Republican somewhere in the process will add a little balance. As an off-year election, it may also help that only the motivated bother voting
Man, I really hope Virginia gets a Republican governor. Especially since the man running seems to be a pretty decent fellow. As a Virginian I’m disgusted to see our state turn blue in the last couple years. It’s all these damned leftist communists in my part of Virginia unfortunately who have been enslaved er I mean employed by the federal government. Everyone who works for the various agencies in Washington D.C. all live here in the MOST wealthy county and area of the country here in Northern Virginia. In my county of Fairfax we have the highest average income our of every county in the country because everyone is making it rich by leeching off the federal government. Why do you think they all vote Democrap? Job security. The Democraps give them the handouts and in return they give them their votes.
Jenifer, Jenifer. Being Republican means nothing to me…nothing. Most pols are in business. They want to make money. (True some have other, far more sinister motives.) The only way they can is by being elected. But look how idiotic and/or conniving some of them are, regardless of party.
Now you take global warming…please, AKA, climate change. The supporters of action on this political/scientific(???) issue are really proposing this. No, they really are, they just express the idea in a mealy-mouthed jargon and in a way that will cause certain people to make a lot of money for doing basically nothing.
They want to put a big thermostat in a Bureau of Standards facility. This thermostat would annually be set to control the temperature of the earth to within a few tenths of a degree Centigrade of the ideal temperature. There is only one decision left to be made, and it is crucial. They have yet to decide what the ideal temperature should be.
These people are, for example, Obama, Bush, McCain, Gore, Lieberman, Pelosi, the Maine sisters, the California sisters, and Romney. Many in both parties are all for it.
Would you truly, honestly, want us to vote for people like this, people who are so dumb or so corrupt just because they might be Republicans?
As a rare conservative Republican living in the Peoples Republic of Arlington I am going to vote in tomorrow’s Democratic primary in sort of a maximin strategy. I want to make sure that Mr. Deeds does indeed go to town. I dread the thought of McAuliffe or another member of the corrupt Moran clan sitting in the statehouse and turning Virginia into an upper South version of New Jersey.
I live in Virginia. I have voted for the Republicans in every election for 30 years. They won’t get my vote again unless a real conservative runs. If McDonnell sounds like another “moderate”, get along Republican, he’ll get no vote and no support from me.
Rubin is obviously on the take from the RNC. Her attacks on Steve Lonegan are what you would expect from Barack Obama. It’s unfortunate that someone who claims to be a conservative would sell out the savior of our party for Thirty Pieces of Silver.
#9 Bobby – I always have trouble with Rubin’s articles. She is typical of the confused neocons. They are moderates, but think they are true cons. Thus, the reference “firebrand”.
This is the problem within the party. The moderates don’t know they’re moderates. Or, they label themselves as compassionate cons (read, moderates). In the old days, they were known as Rockefeller Pubs, happy to be included while the Dems ran things. Such are the career politicians who make all the messes. They defame the party as they ride the gubmint gravy train.
As a former Jersey resident, I can tell you first hand about how corrupt and bloated NJ has become. A good (but often overlooked) example at how hostile the state has become is to is the plight of the restauranteur. You can’t open a decent restaurant because a simple liquor license is either unavailable or unaffordable. Anybody in the “fine-dining” restaurant business knows that the bucks are made on the booze. But to get a simple liquor license, you’ll need a half-million at least for the license, a bit more for graft, and a political connection. I live in California now, where the politicians are fiscally retarded, but not nearly as corrupt as their NJ counterparts. I can obtain a beer and wine license for about $10,000 and a liquour license for about $25,000 here in the Golden State. No graft, very little wait time. And I can make a living. You know why NJ Republicans didn’t elect Lonegan? Because their all Demo-lights. They forgot what a conservative is. The state is lost.
A Republican won’t win in New Jersey, especially one that’s anti-choice. They’re gonna wrap it right around his neck and won’t let voters forget it for a minute. New Jersey is a fiscally moderate and socially liberal state. However, if they have to choose between keeping government out of their pocket or out of their body they will choose keeping government out of their body every time. In fact, the only kind of Republican that can win in New Jersey would be one like pro-choice Republican star Christine Todd Whitman. Stupid Republicans threw her under the bus a long time ago.
Interesting approach, Jerryofva #7, yet that’s why I chose to vote for Moran: to pick the candidate who would most likely LOSE to the Republican candidate. Deeds was picked by the Washington Post…so I couldn’t see my way clear of validating their baby.
Praetorian: Stupid Christine Todd Whitman threw herself under the bus. She was so obsessed with abortion, she would only nominate “pro-choice” judges. Unfortunately, there is nothing in the NJ constitution regarding abortion. So, he had to nominate judges who couldn’t be bothered reading the constitution (state or federal). They came up with decisions like “Abbot” that soaked up all the income tax revenue and diverted it to the cities, driving suburban property taxes to the highest levels in the country. Thanks Christie.