Netanyahu’s Deft Touch
Unlike President Obama, Bibi Netanyahu calculates his survival in the short term amidst the uncertain sea of Israeli politics, as he can be thrown out by a vote of no-confidence.
Leading a coalition of conservative parties, Netanyahu broadened the government by including Labor, which lost dramatically in the last election, and he has tried to entice his biggest rival Kadima to join. The head of Kadima, former Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, has refused, fearing that her supporters will feel betrayed. But many in Kadima don’t agree and seem willing to split and join the government.
If that happens, Netanyahu will have eliminated any significant opposition and have completed an extraordinary political coup.
By including opponents in his coalition, he has created a new form of consensus politics in Israel and destroyed his most potent political rivals. Marginalized, the extreme left and Arab parties are irrelevant. That provides the government with not only political clout but a true national position as well. That may well have changed the face of Israeli politics.
Against the backdrop of scandal-ridden regimes led by Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert, former Likudniks who broke away and led Kadima to power, Netanyahu’s mandate was not only to restore a sense of honesty and responsibility to government but to ensure that Likud would become Israel’s leading party. His primary concern is not Obama’s demands or the EU’s anti-Israel policies, but creating a political base upon which he can rely and from which he can lead.
If Netanyahu can convince members of Kadima that it is in their and the national interest to join his government, he will ensure his survival and establish himself as Israel’s most important political leader.
Netanyahu’s second strategic move is to change the international alignment against Israel. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has been successful in reaching out to Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and especially to Russian-speaking states in the former Soviet Union. Speaking the same language is an enormous advantage; whether it will influence Russia’s antipathy to Israel is the question. Moreover, by drawing Russia into the picture, Israel has sent a message to the U.S. that it is not the only player.
That could be a brilliant move, and although it competes with Russian interests in Iran it might influence EU member states and even blunt Obama’s crusade against Israel.
Netanyahu’s tightrope walk, like Obama’s, will depend on the strength of the economy. Because Israel’s banking system is more tightly controlled, Israel’s economy is in relatively good shape. Israel’s real estate and housing markets — the key to economic stability and expansion — remain quite strong, and along with innovative Israeli technology the economy will strengthen. Despite political interference and serious strategic and security threats, Israeli leaders are not blind to reality.
Netanyahu. Is this his second or third attempt at government? Same names, same results. The only hope for any Israel and Palestine settlement is “divine intervention.” The best he can do this time around is the same as he did the last time around. Just try to keep the car from going back to the scrapyard.
I thought Mr. Netanyahu was doing a rather nice job of walking an ever lengthening tightrope. It is clear that one single policy or a set of similar policies will not bring about success in dealing with the threats of Israels enemies list. Each new situation poses a serious dilemma to Israel but they seem able to keep dodging and ducking to stay in the game,
I think it is clear to Israelis, and to many Americans, that Israel has no true friends. Ironically, the Evangelicals in this country always support Israel, but to have the American president turn on them is a blow. Israel is the only friend that American has in the Middle East, the only ones that we know won’t try to cut our heads off when our backs are turned. I think we should stand up for Israel. If we allow our government to withdraw any kind of help, we will, I think, rue the day. And I think Israel can do without the “helpful advice” given them by this administration.
Bibi is the right man at the right time for the job. He knows that Israel has done very well despite no peace and will continue to do well. He knows that Israel doesn’t need another hostile Arab country on it’s border. He also knows that continuing the narrative of the so called peace process with no real results just process is what all the western diplomats really care about. As long as he continues the narrative and keeps expanding Jewish building no one will really care (sort of like the Iranian or the N Korean tactic on negotiation with the West about nuclear arms). At some point the Arabs will give in. Perhaps when the oil runs dry or when Israel blasts the Mullahs or when the ordinary Palestinian Arab man on the street remembers what life was like when he had a good paying job in Israel before the Arafat era. May be wishful thinking on my part, but Israel has time on it’s side, not the other way round.
Don’t discount the help he received from Obama and Emmanuel. Their attempts to destabilize the Israeli government have secured it. Bibi should sent a thank you letter to Rahm.
Can those Keystone cops do anything right?
I believe tha Moshe Dann is excessively optimistic about the coalition that Netanyahu has put together, and the chances of forming a post America alliance with rogue leaders like Putin or the other Russian allied regions. Obama and his advisors have certainly put the wrong foot forward in their shallow foreign policy regarding Israel and the Palestinians and have made progress in peace negotiations a moot point. But that is where the Palestinian Israeli negotiations have been for decades, and it’s not because of American foreign policy, European Quartet diplomacy, or any other outside force, the Palestinian Israeli peace talks have gone nowhere because the Palestinians still hold to their mad and bloody goal of destroying Israel, and they will only sign off on a peace agreement which includes a clause to that effect. I would think that this would be obvious to even someone as uninformed and inexperienced in foreign affairs as Barack Obama since all of his predecessors knew it!
Netanyahu is no longer reaching out to Kadimah in any real way. Kadimah is a raft of unprincipled, back-biting rats that Likud voters are happy to be rid of. Kadimah’s only differentiator from Likud was a more “pragmatic” approach to peacemaking – which makes them irrelevant to post-Cast-Lead Israelis, who clearly see Oslo-style concessions as a dead end.
Watch restrictions on settlement dissolve after Israel attacks Iran.
Until the Iran situation is resolved, Netanyahu must keep the White House off his back – and present a plausible position to Congressional Democrats, who are far less likely than the White House to attack Israel.
After that – it’s likely that Obama will be a lame duck, and the Congress will have been, uh, repopulated.
All of Netanyahu’s “progressive” statements are conditioned on concessions by the Arabs – recognizing Israel, ending terror, excluding Hamas from Palestinian politics. To any realist, those conditions are highly unlikely. Fortunately, many lefties are fools who only hear what they want to hear.
Netanyahu is being very cautious until Iran is taken out.
But he is unmistakably laying the groundwork for shifting Israeli and world opinion away from the failed Oslo pattern of peacemaking.
“Hard right” patriots like General Ya’alon and Lieberman have not surrendered their cabinet posts – which indicates that Bibi finds them useful as counterweights to Mr. Mitchell’s messages from a left-leaning White House.
Don’t hold your breath waiting for a 2-state solution.
I like Netanyahu a lot. He’s my kind of guy and a politician I can support. It’s too bad he’s recieved the Bush, Cheney, [inser any right wing politician] treatment – which is to say being completely demonized constantly. I respect his military service, his intellect and I agree with his world views. He flew through MIT, joined an elite anti-terrorist commando unit in Israel and has seen the evil in the eyes of our islamic jihadist enemy and won’t forget it. He has 110% support from this American.
One twist is that Netanyahu’s success will aid the Republicans in the US. Obama’s lack of support to Israel must certainly cause some Jewish voters in the US to regret their past Democrat votes.
I too am a fan of Netanyahu and a judeophile. It is not just the Christian Right that supports Israel.
I thought his recent trip to see Putin was brilliant statesmanship, even if no immediate gain is apparent.
Actually, Netanyahu has a vision, best illustrated in this article by George Gilder, who recently authored “The Israel Test”.
He wrote an excerpt of it in the City Journal magazine, which was published this quarter.
I highly recommend you read it. It is mind blowing stuff.
Here’s the link:
http://city-journal.com/2009/19_3_jewish-capitalism.html
printable link:
http://city-journal.com/printable.php?id=5105
Dann astutely notes that “by drawing Russia into the picture, Israel has sent a message to the U.S. that it is not the only player.”
The Israeli prime minister’s “secret” visit to Moscow on September 7, whose purpose, according to Israeli sources, was to persuade Russia not to supply the S-300 missile system to Iran, http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1113570.html indicates that that in Israel’s view, the United States is no longer, as has been suggested, “the world’s only superpower.”
In an interview I saw, Netanyahu said that the only way to stop terrorist attacks is to hit them so hard that they know they can’t win. The terrorists don’t have to admit it, but they will know in their hearts that Israel will trump their efforts with massive force. May it begin with Iran and then continue into Gaza and the other viper pits.
I do not disagree with this writing…