Netanyahu, Likud Stand To Gain from Early Elections
Israel will have an election on September 4, and polls indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud Party will be reelected to lead the government.
A recent poll by Yediot Ahronot and the Dahaf Institute suggests Likud would become the largest party, increasing its presence in the 120-member Knesset from 27 seats to about 30. The same poll shows the opposition Kadima Party, which recently chose former general Shaul Mofaz as its new leader, would suffer a drastic fall from 28 seats to only 10.
The splits among Likud’s other rivals also show a strengthening of the party. Labor, which has embraced social issues, would grow from eight seats to 18, while a new centrist party created by former journalist Yair Lapid called Yesh Atid (There’s a Future) would take 11 seats. The right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu party would shrink from 16 seats to 13.
If this poll proves accurate, Netanyahu will have a variety of options when it comes to forming a new coalition. Neither Kadima nor Labor nor Lapid’s party have ruled out joining a Netanyahu-led coalition. The prime minister might choose to construct a center-right government or a right-religious coalition of the type that currently exists, depending on the parliamentary arithmetic and his own preference.
The impetus for early elections is a disagreement between coalition members regarding reform to the Tal Law, which allows ultra-Orthodox Israelis to avoid military service. The law was recently struck down by Israel’s Supreme Court and will expire on August 1, requiring the Knesset to find some alternative law before then.
Disagreements over proposed reforms are the ostensible cause of rifts in the governing coalition. However, it is likely that coalition partners who want to have an election are simply using this issue as rationale to launch campaigns aimed at secular voters.
Several proposals have been formulated, the most significant coming from Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party. But by tightening up on ultra-Orthodox avoidance of military service, this proposal could lead religious parties to walk out of the coalition or at least to stop cooperating with their partners. Still, the government coalition retains a majority, and opposition no-confidence motions to be presented in coming weeks have no chance of passing. Thus, if elections are to be called it will be because key figures within the coalition have decided they want them.
Contrary to frequent foreign perceptions, Netanyahu’s governing style is characterized in practice by extreme caution and a desire not to move far beyond the existing consensus. The last three years have witnessed an unfamiliar quiet on the security front and an economic stability currently rivaled by few countries in the West. A solid centrist consensus of Israelis has concluded that — for the moment — there is no real partner on the splintered Palestinian political scene for making diplomatic progress, and that there are deep concerns regarding the chaotic neighborhood emerging in the wake of the Arab upheavals of 2011. Iran and its ambitions are also a matter of grave import. In such an environment, it is not hard to see why a pragmatic hawk of Netanyahu’s stripe looks like a “safe pair of hands” to many voters.
Critics of the prime minister see Netanyahu’s caution as being accompanied by a tendency to vacillate and by an absence of clear vision. One government insider revealed that the ambition of all Cabinet members is to be the last person to speak to Netanyahu before an important vote, as his reputation is that he is easily swung.
Whatever the truth of this assertion, the current government has delivered security quiet and economic stability to Israelis in the midst of regional and global political and economic tumult. This is the main reason why Netanyahu can feel confident about elections, and why if they are to take place he is reported to want them as soon as possible. As things look, he is correct from his standpoint: general elections in Israel are unlikely to produce any major change in the balance of political forces.
Many things can change between now and September 2012.
The one thing going for Bibi, is that the entire
“opposition” looks weak and incapable….
Livni may not pass the threshold,
she resigned and needs to set up quickly
another party, Barak is unlikely to make it
The remains of the Left, will hardly get much
and will have to unite behind the imploded Labor Party
where there is not one single person with leadership
qualities they all wing it, pretending to have a message.
Bibi could win by default and the fact that he is a known
entity, not because he has anything to say, nor much
of a platform. He is surrounded by a collection
of hooligans partnering with orthodox lunatics,
making for a toxic combination of the first order.
This is a formula for trouble, no matter how anyone looks at it.
Jonathan, An apt analysis, but I am meeting too many people who have never, ever, ever voted Likud – never would have even considered it before and voted everything but in the past (Labor, Shinui, Kadima, etc.), but are doing so in 2012. I know that this is hardly scientific and totally anecdotal, but take note: I think Likud’s currently projected 30 or so seats is really 35 and up. Just some street notes from Jerusalem.
I know what you mean. I’ve always voted for center-left parties and never imagined I would even consider voting Likud. Last time I voted Kadima. I still don’t know if I will vote Likud in the coming elections, but there’s a good chance I will. I’ve certainly changed my mind about Netanyahu. Over the last 20 years I’ve listened to his predictions and to the leftist predictions. As it turned out Netanyahu’s predcitions very often proved correct (though not always), while the leftist predictions almost always proved to be an abysmal failure (though not always). My conclusion is that up to now Netanyahu’s reading of reality has been far more accurate than the leftist reading of reality. In addition, I used to be more socialistic, a social-democrat, but I see what’s happening in Europe and what Obama is doing in the US, and I’ve also spent a lot of time reading and listening to American conservatives and their arguments. All in all, I don’t think we should follow Europe and Obama into the abyss, so anything left of Kadima in this regard is not an option.
That’s a very good point, Ben. And you’re right that that is the smart election stgatery for Kadima. And you may be right that she’s doing the right thing for the sake of peace. But I think the situation has changed from the days of Rabin in those days the left had a lot of support and the goal was to draw enough people from the center to form a center-left majority and make the peace. But we’ve regressed since then the left is marginal, the center goes with the right whenever push comes to shove Kadima itself, with the sole exception of Livni, would have no problem fitting itself into the Likud. So the idea of Livni getting elected and making the peace seems impossible to me now first we have to build support for such a policy, and for that it would be nice to have a leader, and Livni isn’t it at all. (I’m hoping Amram Mitzna becomes Labor’s leader and fills the role.) But who knows, maybe you’re right maybe the international situation will shift over the next couple of years so that Israelis will feel the need for change, and Livni will be in position to lead it, and then her stgatery will have been proven correct from the left’s point of view. But frankly, I don’t think she’s that high-minded or far-sighted I think she wants to get elected for the sake of getting elected, and will say anything and do anything to achieve that goal. She ain’t no Rabin, nor is she a Mitzna. She’s an image with nothing inside.
I’m voting for Bibi: he has an MS degree from MIT in business management, our economy is doing very well because of the initiatives he put in place as Finance Minister, and has more experience in the Prime Minister’s seat than any of the other party leaders. In other words, he’s the best qualified for the job.
Yo
Contrary to frequent foreign perceptions, Netanyahu’s governing style is characterized in practice by extreme caution and a desire not to move far beyond the existing consensus.
In addition to big caution on economic affairs, the liberal Jews in Israel are finally starting to wise up to what the Moslems have in store for them. It’s written right there in black I white in the Holy Ko-Ran. No, Allah’s compendium doesn’t say anything about IBCMs and nuclear warheads, it only talks about smoking Jews as a matter of principle.
That’s what a very public and very sincere threat to bomb and wipe you off the map will do to people.
Contrary to frequent foreign perceptions, Netanyahu’s governing style is characterized in practice by extreme caution and a desire not to move far beyond the existing consensus.
In addition to big caution on economic affairs, the liberal Jews in Israel are finally starting to wise up to what the Moslems have in store for them, and it’s troubling them. The whole story is written right there in black & white in the Holy Ko-Ran. No, Allah’s compendium doesn’t say anything about IBCMs and nuclear warheads, it only talks about smoking lotsa Jews as a matter of principle.
That’s what a very public and very sincere threat to bomb and wipe you off the map will do. A guy starts thinking.