Mrs. Clinton Goes to Asia
Defense Secretary Robert Gates said we can shoot down whatever the North Koreans can put up, and that assurance is comforting. But only for now. As history shows, offensive weaponry almost always defeats defensive systems. So it looks as if Mrs. Clinton will have her work cut out for her when she arrives in the South Korean capital.
And in the Chinese one. The North Koreans are dangerous, but they pose a real threat to the international community because Beijing backs them up. Since the end of the Cold War, the Chinese have been the primary sponsors — and protectors — of the ruling Kim family. In recent times, China has provided about 90 percent of the North’s oil, 80 percent of its consumer goods, and 45 percent of its food, most of this shipped for free or on concessionary terms. On the fourth of this month, Pyongyang announced that China had offered it aid. The assistance, probably food, oil, and raw materials, replaces commodities that Seoul, now under a conservative administration, is no longer providing to the North Koreans.
China has made it clear that, whatever Mr. Kim does, it will make sure his miserable regime in Pyongyang survives. The Bush administration, and especially the State Department, was quick to praise China’s role in efforts to disarm Pyongyang. The Chinese hosted three-party talks in April 2003 and six-party ones starting the following August. Yet during this period, Beijing only promoted dialogue, not a solution. The Chinese have, whether it was their intention or not, given the North Koreans the one thing they needed most to make themselves a nuclear weapons power — time.
Patient Bush policies failed to persuade China to rein in its only formal military ally, North Korea. Now it’s the turn of Secretary of State Clinton. If she is going to succeed where past administrations — including her husband’s — have failed, she will have to bring extraordinary pressure to bear on Beijing.
Many Americans think Washington is in no position to do so, but that’s not true. And now is the perfect time to begin leaning on China. The Chinese, after all, have the world’s fastest slowing economy at this time, due in large part to the rapid decline in exports. And China’s largest export market, by far, is the United States. How important? This week, the Commerce Department reported that America’s 2008 trade deficit with China hit a record $266.3 billion, which was up four percent from 2007′s whopping deficit, also a record.
If Washington chose to do so, it could undermine the Chinese economy by doing two things: holding Beijing to the promises it made to join the World Trade Organization and carefully inspecting Chinese products entering the United States. The Bush administration did not strictly enforce America’s trade rights or keep out defective Chinese goods, but nothing says President Obama has to continue lax enforcement policies. Because the Chinese depend on selling merchandise and agricultural products to Americans to keep their economy going, Washington could begin to exact a price on Beijing for access to the American market. During the past half decade, the Chinese never hesitated in demanding their price for cooperation over North Korea, and now, when we hold important cards, we should be at least as tough.
Unfortunately, senior officials in the Obama administration are beginning to think that we will have to accept North Korea as a nuclear power. Yet instead of accepting “reality,” now is the time for the United States to change it. We have the power to do so by separating Kim Jong Il from his only supporter. The only issue is whether the president has the will to act. A good indication is what Mrs. Clinton says and does during her visit to Seoul — and the one in Beijing.
Hilary:
Enjoy the mieumsang (미음상) and the sura (수라).
Were Hillary president, maybe real pressure would be placed on China to reign in N. Korea. Unfortunately, the leader of the Kumbaya Choir is in that position. “Dialog” will no more convince Kim Jong Il to give up nukes than it will Ahmadinejad. Chairman Obama will be depending too much on the Chinese to fund his vast spread the wealth stimulus schemes to ever play hardball with them.
Fairbanks99, Hillary would do no more than Obambi will about the Norks. Her “tough” stands on defense were to help her get elected, no more. It was her husband’s administration that came up with the agreed framework, remember?
2. Fairbanks99:
” “Dialog” will no more convince Kim Jong Il to give up nukes than it will Ahmadinejad. ”
They will agree on something, they just won’t tell anybody. Their public statements will not reflect it. Unless, they really don’t agree on anything.
“…she will have to bring extraordinary pressure to bear on Beijing.”
The odds are better that Gordon Chang or I will humiliate Kobe Bryant on the basketball court. Barack Obama is a poorly educated, self-hating American. He is existentially committed to the notion that the United States is a racist nation that has crapped on the dark people of the world. Soft power is the only real option. Hard power will supposedly only get those who are already upset with us even angrier.
We are in serious danger. Our new president is unbelievably ignorant and unqualified. He hasn’t the foggiest idea how to respond to the threats of our enemies. Hold on tight. It’s going to be a rough four years.
“smart” diplomacy will now get a chance to prove itself. it’s a wonder china doesn’t have any ponzi schemes or misstated financials by public corporations.
Fairbanks99, you wrote: “Chairman Obama will be depending too much on the Chinese to fund his vast spread the wealth stimulus schemes to ever play hardball with them.”
I am sure that is how Obama thinks. But with China’s export earnings falling precipitously, the Chinese are going to reduce their purchase of Treasury obligations no matter how nice we are to them. Moreover, with Americans consuming less and saving more, we have greater capacity to fund our own debt.
Keithacita, you wrote: “it’s a wonder china doesn’t have any ponzi schemes or misstated financials by public corporations.”
Are you sure about that?
6. keithacita:
“it’s a wonder china doesn’t have any ponzi schemes or misstated financials by public corporations.”
You have no idea . . .
They are not different from the rest of the World. They are just 2 billion people.
Who is the Secretary of State?
I live in Japan, and since Hillary’s arrival on a Presidential aircraft with her entire family and a huge entourage, I see her every hour on the local TV news channels. Every video clip shows Bill (I didn’t have sex with that woman) Clinton hovering nearby. Who is SecState, Hillary or Bill? When is Hillary going to stand on her own merit and quit depending on dufus to make the decisions that affect our nation. He wasn’t appointed, or was he? Another Obombus slieght of hand?
APatriot, thanks for the info on Bill Clinton’s presence on Japanese television. Most interesting.
Mr. Chang:
“North Korean leader Kim Jong Il just might make Hillary’s maiden tour as secretary of state an interesting one.”
I’ll bet they get along like a house on fire. The “Dear Leader” and the “UberFrauFuhrer” share many of the same character traits.
Oh, by the way…is she planning on coming back?
Ooooh! Tough talk from Hillary. She said a missle launch by North Korea “would be very unhelpful in moving our relationship forward.” I’m sure Kim Jong Il is shaking in his boots right now. Our enemies in the world such as North Korea, Cuba, Venezeula, the Taliban, Iran, and Russia are watching closely and now see a US that will not respond to most provocations. Much of the world likes Obama because they think he will bring peace. But those who would like to destroy us are seeing opportunity, softness, and a willingness to constantly turn the other cheek…..at least until we have another 9/11 event anyway.
So you go get ‘em Hillary. I’m sure our enemies are already in full retreat.
#13 WC – You beat me to it. The world is emboldened. No one fears Obama. Expect them to launch a missile just to embarass Hillary.
10. APatriot:
“Who is the Secretary of State?”
Sounds like the Japanese MSM has its own way of distorting reality and demeaning someone of the “weak sex”. They have a very macho mentality. Heard of any prominent Japanese woman?
Bill Clinton was the best president China ever had. I’m sure the Mrs. will be the best Secretary of State China ever had, too.
Have to agree (for the first time!) w/vivo comment 4 (no offense, viv) — state visit as photo op with any agreements behind closed doors. But for reasons vivo would likely disagree:
Obama will be far too useful to America’s antagonists and enemies to be demonized like Reagan and Bush II, or humilliated like Carter, or, maybe, even ridiculed like Clinton. They saw a neutered Carter replaced by a muscular Reagan, and saw two governments toppled in the wake of 9/11. So, they’ll want Obama in office as long as possible. The quid pro quo for refraining from public challenge will be getting much of what they want from a president more suspicious of his own nation than any other.
To the degree Obama and a foreign policy tream steeped in bogus ‘conflict resolution’ theories are committed to diminished U.S. influence and deference to the UN, etc., his global media cheering section will do everything they can to make him look good and the international Left will (occasionally) applaud. Hollywood will assist by making movies about likeable American presidents, as they did throughout the 90′s.
Insecure Americans who worry more about being well-regarded in Europe than whether their nation is doing the right or necessary thing will be reassured by cooing approval on BBC-America. The ‘see how much everyone hates you’ subtext of its coverage will be replaced by ‘see how much more pleasant it is when you do what we want’.
We’ve gone from a nation whose enemies existed only at our forebearance to a nation whose foreign policy is dictated by what our enemies will allow or will not tolerate.
I wonder how much we have to fear North Korea.
Chang, for the sake of accuracy mentioned N. Korea’s previous attempts to launch missiles and test a nuclear warhead. Both were spectacular abject failures. I predict that Chang will be alarmed at how much N. Korea could potentially learn when their next round of tests fail too.
If China wasn’t supporting N. Korea their economy would have collapsed years ago. China has missiles that work and nuclear warheads but they don’t seem anxious to share them with their ally (maybe because they know how crazy their ally is).
So if North Korea could develop a long-range missile, if they could make a nuke that works without their ramshackle nuclear reactor (just the thought of a ramshackle nuclear reactor is scarier than anything Chang mentioned), if they put their nuke on their missile and fired it at someone with no provocation, and if American missile-defense failed (this is the only “if” that seems likely). North Korea would be a destructive nuclear power.
That is for about 12 hours. I am fairly pacifistic, but I believe that any country that did something like that should be wiped off the face of the planet. The USA would be free, with the blessings from almost everybody on Earth, To reduce N. Korea to a smoldering pit. Even a madman would realize this. Dictators have a strong sense of preservation, nothing, not even China, could save Kim if he fired a nuke.
Can we get Asia to keep her?
Bilgeman, Madeleine Albright and Kim hit it off, so you may be right about Mrs. Clinton.
WC, you wrote: “I’m sure our enemies are already in full retreat.” I think there are some in this country who actually think Obama’s foreign policies will have the world’s tyrants on their heels. Wishful thinking is, unfortunately, on the rise in Washington.
Vinny Vidivici, I think Beijing liked the Bush presidents more. At least for the moment, they appear to be genuninely concerned about that Obama will change Dubya’s policies.
Northern Light, I agree with what you write, but Kim could make himself a real menace without putting one of his nukes on a missile. Selling nukes, for instance, could start a chain of events that would be truly horrific.
Oscar the Grump, I’m sorry, but she will be returning home soon.
#17 Vinny – That would be the smart thing to do, but they won’t do it. Tyrants/Bullies can’t help themselves. When they perceive weakness, they push. They must. On Inauguration Day, China published its White Paper determining to dominate the East within ten years. They had Obama’s measure.
#18 Northern Light – The danger from Korea is a nuking of S. Korea or Japan. Do we nuke in retaliation? Would Obama?
Marc Malone,
If any country was to use nuclear weapons without provocation I suspect that the world would agree the aggressor must pay the supreme penalty.
It wouldn’t matter if N. Korea bombed Japan, Taiwan, Hawaii, Seattle, or Burkina Faso, the penalty would be the same. I am a pacifistic peacenik and I believe this. If you think Obama wouldn’t do it, what about the other nations who have nukes? Even the French would retaliate in an unprovoked situation.
If you want to worry about nuclear weapons I would suggest you look to India and Pakistan. Two mortal enemies both with nuclear weapons who claim enough provocation to fire them. That’s a lot scarier than worrying about North Korea.
Northern Light, Pakistan may be the most dangerous nuclear state at this moment. But wait until Iran develops its bomb. The mullahs will undoubtedly give the Pakistanis competition in this regard.
n. korea will participate in nuclear talks when they get another boatload of cash. i suspect pakistan and iran are going to use the same tactics once some negotiations begin with them. perhaps the new israeli prime minister will save us from having to bother with iran.