The Battle for America 2010: Might Barney Frank Lose?
Can Barney Frank — of all people — be beaten?
A Republican can certainly win in Massachusetts, as recently established by Scott Brown. But the answer to the latter question depends upon numerous factors, including: the demographics of the Fourth Congressional District; the public’s current perceptions of Frank and the Democrats in Washington, D.C.; and the likely Republican candidate, Sean Bielat.
A primary reason Frank has stayed in office since 1981 is that the Fourth is a carefully gerrymandered district. The district connects the Volvo liberals of Newton and Brookline to the Democratic, blue-collar cities of Fall River and New Bedford. It meanders from the Boston city limits south, all the way to the ocean — overwhelming the intervening leafy bedroom communities like Dover and Lakeville.
The Fourth has had a Democratic congressman since 1947. A legitimate, Republican candidate — with a modicum of gravitas — has not tested Barney recently. In the elections of 2002, 2004, and 2006, Frank had no real opposition. In 2008, Barney carried 64% of the vote against a weak Republican.
Electoral history seems to support an inference that the Fourth has an intimidating percentage of registered Democrats, but this is not the case: the current breakdown is 38% Democrat, 11% Republican, and 50% independent. Even in the five Democratic cities, registered Democrats do not outnumber the total of registered Republicans and registered independents. In the special election of 2010, Scott Brown won every one of the bedroom communities and failed to reach 50% only in the four urban cities and Sharon.
Yes, Frank can lose.
Frank has been in office for 29 years — long enough for the public to view him objectively, without the leg-tingling attributes voters might naively ascribe to attractive newcomers. Voters have not rejected Frank for his past personal behavior that may be described as scandalous, and they will not do so now. Whether Frank will be hurt by his admitted connection to the OneUnited Bank matter — in which Representative Maxine Waters has been accused of ethics violations — is still developing. However, voters may reevaluate him dispassionately on his record in light of the fundamental changes to their lives enacted by the Democrats since January 2009.
Challenging Frank is Republican Sean Bielat. He matches up well with Scott Brown on both a personal and philosophical level.
After graduation from Georgetown, Bielat served four years active duty as a U.S. Marine lieutenant. He continues to serve as a major in the Marine Reserve. He earned a master’s degree in public policy from Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. Bielat burnished his defense credentials at the iRobot Corporation, which produces robots used in Iraq and Afghanistan. Bielat’s position on Israel shows that he has a realistic view of the world — appropriate for a Marine — and can draw valid moral distinctions.
Says Brian Phillips, campaign manager for Sean Bielat:
Barney Frank reflects all that’s broken in Washington: bailouts, rising debt, and government expansion at the expense of our liberty. … Sean is a businessman and Marine with the leadership experience to restore fiscal responsibility and turn the economy around. Voters across the district are responding to Sean very favorably and the evidence shows he can win this election.
It will be a great day for this nation if we never have to see Barney Frank’s face ever again in Congress. All Sean Bielat has to do is run ads that show Frank, Pelosi, Reid, and Obama together and say, “Haven’t you had enough of this already?” Then simply show how their massive (some would say criminal) spending has bankrupted this nation, and end with, “If you like Romney care in Massachusetts, you’ll love Obamacare in America.” Or, an alternate campaign slogan for the Bielat campaign could be, “Taxed enough yet?”
So long, Barney. Don’t think it has been a pleasure, because it hasn’t.
I just don’t know, Robert. I live smack in the middle of Bwawney Fwank country here, and everyone (save the lone Conservative such as me) are going to vote for him again. Everything is working fine, life goes on, all is swell. These drooling narcoleptics believe he is doing a fine job.
Allston, I live smack in the south of Barney country and I’m a little more optimistic than you. We down here aren’t as enamored of him as those in the north part of his district. I went to the town hall he had in Dartmouth last year and it was ugly, to put it mildly. People are livid and ready for a change.
Keep the faith!
How about a true Liberty candidate? What chances does he have? We might just have to back the winner of this race. look up powerhousefive dot com and sign the pledge if you want to help us.
Frank is one of the most corrupt people in Washington. He more than any other single person is responsible for the crushing recession in which we now find ourselves.
A great article aned I wish the best to the voters of Massachusetts Fourth Congressional district. The people of Massachusetts have sufferred too long under a corrupt one party Democratic monopoly. It is time for them to take their state back from the hacks that are bleeding it dry. Here is a toast to hope they have the guts to do it. Time will tell.
About the only agreement I have with Frank is: I’d have voted against making the Patriot Act permanent as well. My reasons are no doubt different, but I oppose making it permanent.
Aside from that, I find him a loathsome, corrupt, repulsive, disgusting dirtbag of a human being. Alas, I believe the man has a lifetime seat. This is, after all, Massachusetts.
Never happen. Frank is gay, Jewish and a far-left progressive. He is the personification of everything left. A trifecta of progressivism.
blotto, absolutely right. Frank is properly degenerate in all things, even advocates extending Fannie & Freddie lending, he represents all that is corrupt in the disease called liberalism. What more could a fool ask for.
I hope he wins. My best friend lives in Sharon, MA. I think he is the token conservative.
Dear maxmodels; Call your friend in Sharon and tell him, if he is a conservative, that he can make a difference and barney can be defeated but only if he and many others get involved and does the political thing; e.g. donates money (even if a small amount), writes letters, works in the campaign and gets in the faces of the lobotomized liberals of Sharon and tries to change thrie minds. You have to show up; it’s fun.
Max couldn’t understand a word you said take Frank’s gherkin out of your mouth.
Liberalism is not a disease, its the lowest common denominator for the insane.
Name-calling doesn’t help, and this year voting isn’t enough. Hold signs, make phone calls, donate money, hold “meet and greets” in your home for a candidate, call a campaign and ask what they need. Get a lawn sign. Get a bumper sticker. I have seen a youtube video of Barney telling Young Democrats to “give us more authority.” Enough. Those of you in the fourth Massachusetts district, go to http://www.SeanBielat.org.
Dear Ann: That is the spirit! Thanks!
Loved the article. Well written and articulate. I think you’re right about Barney’s vulnerability this year. Having talked to Sean and his campaign, I get the sense that the momentum is really starting to build. This is the first time in a long time that Republicans have a shot at taking this seat. I hope that everyone gets involved like I have!! Sean is a man of character and integrity and will be a welcome replacement to Barney Frank in November.
As Mencken put it,”no one ever went broke underestimating the stupidity of the American people”. Mencken usually meant and mocked the South & Midwest America, he would be confounded by the complacent & brain dead Massachusetts types. Despite Brown & considering it’s a CD we’re talking about, Barney Frank in a landslide. Disgusting, but there you have it.
Dear JohT: That is just the kind of talk that went on in Massachusetts at the start of Scott Brown’s campaign and look how that turned out. Accentuate the poative and elimiante the negative and conservatives can win.
No. Brown got in only because people with big lawns and trucks, and living outside of the urban & academic areas voted for him, and that Coakley ran a terrible, terrible campaign that made people with small lawns and sensible vehicles, and who live in the smart parts of the state lukewarm to her. That’s not going to happen to Frank since it isn’t a state wide election.
Scott Brown was a fluke, unfortunately.
..and my relatives in Mass say he will not win in the future, as they believe a better campaign will be mounted by a new challenger. As for Barney, it would be a miracle if that corrupt little man were to lose. Plus the Dem establishment in Mass is probably so motivated to keep those seats like Frank’s, it’s just wishful thinking to believe he could lose, imo.
In fact, Barney could be caught in bed with a WOMAN, and still win.
Robert, do you remember who Barney beat in his second Congressional election, the first in the newly-Gerrymandered district in 1982? Maybe the most centrist Republican in history, Peg Heckler. Of course, it was mostly because she was abandoned by her sisters over her opposition to federal abortion funding, but it doesn’t change the fact that for the GOP to win this seat there has to be a sea change not just Scott Brown big, but Red Sox coming back from 3-0 down to beat the Yankees in 2004 BIG!
Looks like Mr. Snider doesn’t read much. Looks like he hasn’t bothered to listen to both Republicans(Earl Sholley and Sean Bielat)running in that primary speak in a debate together either. It’s a no-brainer. Earl Sholley runs rings around the kid.
The Token conservative is Bielat. The REAL conservative is Earl Sholley. This is his second run at Frank. The kid hasn’t run for anything. Doesn’t know anything either. Sholley’s the Tea Party favorite. I see Sholley hitting the streets, talking to the folks. I don’t see the kid anywhere.
Snider needs to get out more.
As a resident of Sharon, MA, I’m ashamed to live in only town in South suburbs that went for “Marsha” Coackley. I could never understand why we Jews manage to be so stupid when choosing our politics. I personally don’t hold my breath, but I am definitely voting against Barney, and so all of my family, who I’ll make sure will vote in November.
Dear Udar: I know just how you feel when you try to change Jewish minds. Smug, supercilious, uneducated on the issues but sure they are right for some reason they really do not understand. Try reading Podhoretz’ Why Jews are Liberal or The Oslo Syndrome. Join us at the Republican Jewish Coalition and meet some well read people who are fearful and are trying to make a difference. Get involved. As my Bobbi-used to say-Go out! Maybe you’ll meet somebody.
Why in the world would you mention Scott Brown and conservative in the same sentence, unless to show the breathtaking DISPARITY!!!
OLDPUPPYMAX:
I was beginning to wonder if anyone would ever get around to taking the mask off of Scott Brown, the “conservative”. I hear he is going to caucus with Olympia Snowe and the other female stooge pretend Senator from New England, whose name I can’t recall and don’t deem important enough to look it up. You’ll know her when you see her.
In politics, the more things change, the more they stay the same it seems.
November? Don’t hold your breath while waiting for the anticipated change to blow across the nation.
Good catch.
I’ve lived in the district for 9 years. It is very unlikely that Barney Frank is going to lose. First, your point about Independents is bogus. In MA, if you are an independent, you can vote in either primary. Even partisan people register as Independent because it maintains privacy and there is no down-side. You can even vote as a spoiler then, if you want. Second, the positions you bring up and others as well are strong negatives in this district. Veteran? Negative. Reserves? Negative. Corporatist? Negative. Anti-Taxes? Negative. Pro-Life? Negative. Pro Don’t Ask? Negative. Anti Cap & Trade? Negative. Pro Second Amendment? Negative.
Exactly what percent of the vote did Brown get in Frank’s district? I know Brown only won 25.3% of the vote in Brookline. I’m glad the Republicans have fielded a good candidate. But victory is a very long shot.
Dear Steve: First, the article makes clear that Scott won big everywhere except Newton, Brookline, Sharon (all three liberal with a big Jewish vote) and the Dems of Fall River New Bedford. Remember, gerrymandering was invented here. Second, it seems clear thatindependnets broke enough for Scott to make the balance less severe. Scott won 50.50% of the district. The key is to change the idiot jewsish vote from 74% Democratic to something less; like 55%. That may be enough to swing the District. I agree jews have no sense. The alarm bells of jew Hatred in Europe, the UK the Middle east etc are so loud now that only idiots, New York Times and Boston Globe readers cannot hear them. get involved and do not be a defeatist. Join the Republican Jewish Coalition, donate a few dolars and get involved. You will feel that at least you did something.
Robert- Yes, but Sharon, Fall River, New Bedford, Newton and Brookline cast 42% of the district’s votes in the special senatorial election. My rough calculation is that the Brown/Coakley result was a 50-50 tie in the district. And Coakley wasn’t incumbent like Frank is.
Town____ Coakley Brown pct-C pct-B
Lakeville 1,259 3,248 27.9 72.1
Norfolk_ 1,394 3,308 29.6 70.4
Middleborough 2,615 6,158 29.8 70.2
Halifax_ 992 2,147 31.6 68.4
Berkley_ 746 1,614 31.6 68.4
Rochester 776 1,671 31.7 68.3
Dighton_ 829 1,770 31.9 68.1
Raynham_ 1,687 3,574 32.1 67.9
Norton__ 2,209 4,424 33.3 66.7
Foxborough 2,465 4,821 33.8 66.2
Mansfield 3,045 5,909 34.0 66.0
Freetown 1,189 2,220 34.9 65.1
Dover___ 1,058 1,888 35.9 64.1
Millis__ 1,383 2,430 36.3 63.7
Wareham_ 3,128 4,628 40.3 59.7
Mattapoisett 1,317 1,834 41.8 58.2
Taunton_ 6,586 8,925 42.5 57.5
Marion__ 1,002 1,332 42.9 57.1
Acushnet 1,627 2,138 43.2 56.8
Sherborn 1,061 1,269 45.5 54.5
Dartmouth 5,110 5,812 46.8 53.2
Westport 2,898 3,203 47.5 52.5
Fairhaven 2,834 3,045 48.2 51.8
Wellesley 5,934 5,922 50.1 49.9
Sharon__ 4,461 3,536 55.8 44.2
Fall River 10,341 7,489 58.0 42.0
New Bedford 11,754 7,828 60.0 40.0
Newton__ 23,456 11,352 67.4 32.6
Brookline 15,264 5,217 74.5 25.5
TOTAL___ 118,420 118,712 49.9 50.1
Independents are people too ashamed to admit that they vote Democrat. But thats what they do. Do you believe he’s been there for so long because a Republican has a chance?
Are there any other districts which boast an incumbent with similiar demographics? The Weenie hasn’t changed since he ran a gay escort service out of his home.
Anyone giving odds that the Weenie will be there till he contracts AIDS?
If Sean Bielat really wants to win that seat he had better get his butt in gear.
He needs to nationalize his race and gain support from all the country. Millions would love to see him beat Frank.
He could try posting on RedState as a nice way to start.
Erick Erickson puts politicians on the map and would be a powerful ally.
I bet Laura Ingraham would help him too.
His donations would soar.
The man needs to start making a name for himself if he wants to win.
Tick tock tick tock.
Love the name: NeoKong: Sean will be on Hannity Monday night. The night Scott was on Hannity, his telephne bank lit up like a christmas tree and he raised a considerable amount. It was major. Of course it was a national election. Please tune in. Check out Sean’s website. I think that it is first rate. I make the point in my article that Scott did not seem at first to be spectacular. he built from the ground up. Martha showed what a dork she is. He took off when peopple believed that he could win. Be positive! If you are in the Fourth District get involved. If not for Sean, for your Republican candidate. Be of good cheer.
Sean Bielat is a great candidate and he’ll be a smart, thoughtful, and responsible US Representative. His campaign is starting to build steam. Get on board. We can retire Barney.
You mean the Scott Brown that slobbered over and voted for Elena Kagan? That Brown? What a difference from the other guy!!! Oh never mind.
Scott Brown is Massachusetts republican. He is as conservative as they get around here. Who would you choose – him or Coakley?
BTW, he voted AGAINST Kagan, but he also voted FOR finance reform bill.
I believe that it was reported that Scott voted against Elena Kagan. He was video’d being gracious to her when she came to Washington for the hearing as a Senator from her State. He is just a class act on the personal level.Scott is playing a balancing game because he does have to run in 2012. He gives us the key votes and, when Mass interests and jobs are on the line and when he saw that the bill owuld pass; i/.e. Financial “Reform” he acted to save jobs as Mass Mutual and State St Bank. Tha’s what we do need
Politics is a binary game. we had a choice of Scott and Martha…an absolute horror. make a choice and get involved. Love your interest.
Contribute to Sean Bielat’s campaign; I do.
I come here from the mid west. I see a pot full of barely speaking foreigners . You folks are past a tipping point of people who want gov control and or educated about being “whole ” ,”responsible” ,….
T he influx of “entitlement” believing humans is why we are contaminTed we have to change immigration and wAke up.
If this guy can put two words togeather and make sense he can wax the old pervert and not even break a sweat. Lollipop, was again on FOX this time he was interviewed by Cavuto who took some time with him and let him bubble out the words, he wants to eliminate Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, this is not what he said to O’Reilly 18 months ago and he would not take responsibility for his part of the wreckless spending done by all the DEEMERS. He can now get the owl poop kicked out of him if this opponent is a Real Republican and not a closet RINO….I vote Barney fly back into his closet and stay there.
One could only hope that Barney is defeated. As someone earlier said “He more than any other single person is responsible for the crushing recession in which we now find ourselves”. It is high time Barney went home.
Frank was a major player in the financial meltdown.
Sean Bielat should use the CSPAN videos of Frank in action to make people understand the depth of Barneys involvement.
There are CSPAN videos of Barney attacking the auditors of Fannie and Freddie for pointing out corruption. There are videos of Frank telling people that he would ‘take care of the rating agencies’ if they did not rate junk bundled MBSes in a way that allowed then to be sold. And of course, there are the absolute financialy incompetant advice he gave people regarding the solvancy of Freddie and Fannie right up to when they went bust!
Cold hard facts are the best approach when dealing with Barney Frank!
Don Jordan is running against Barney as a Tax Revolt Independent. Read his blog at http://www.donjordanforcongress.com, and his responses to questions posed by the Boston Globe. He is the most educated, most qualified, and most interesting candidate this year. His stand on all the issues make him the outstanding candidate.