Mideast Strategic Perversity
Russia has decided to sell Syria P-800 Yakhont supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles despite heavy Israeli and American protests.
Last month Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu personally asked Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to call off the sale. The U.S. is also described as putting up “stiff opposition” to it. Yet over the weekend, Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov announced the sale in Washington during talks with U.S. Defense Minister Robert Gates.
Both the U.S. and Israel fear that the Yakhont, a difficult-to-intercept missile that cruises just above sea level at twice the speed of sound, could threaten their naval vessels in the Mediterranean. They are also concerned that Syria could transfer the missiles to Hezbollah. In the 2006 Second Lebanon War, Hezbollah hit an Israeli missile boat with a Chinese-made missile, killing four crew members. The missile had been smuggled into Lebanon through Syria.
That not even Israel’s superpower ally could dissuade Russia from taking this aggressive, dangerous step is unfortunately part of a pattern. Reuel Marc Gerecht and Mark Dubowitz have noted in the Wall Street Journal that, even at a time when the major European states and Japan are cutting business ties with Iran, Russia (along with China) is stepping in to fill the void.
Russia’s energy conglomerate Gazprom, in particular, “continues to explore whether to expand Iran’s oil and gas pipelines, a critical development” that could offset Europe’s ban on the transfer of liquefied-gas technology to Tehran.
It was only last June that the Obama administration was hailing Russia’s (and China’s) aye vote on UN Security Council Resolution 1929, which imposed stiffer sanctions on Iran, as a triumph of unity. More generally, Russia — along with Iran itself — is one of those countries inimical to the West with which Obama has earnestly sought to make friends.
Gerecht and Dubowitz now warn that U.S. failure to act against Russian and Chinese trade with Iran “will probably crack European resolve, collapsing our Iran policy.” So far there is no sign that Washington is heeding the warning.
Meanwhile outspoken Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has said the U.S. is applying “massive” pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to extend Israel’s settlement moratorium beyond its rapidly approaching expiration date on September 26.
In other words, at a time when Israel’s security environment is worsening, in no small part because of the Obama administration’s strategic weakness, Israel is being pushed hard by that same administration into making its security environment even worse.
Israel’s moratorium on building in the West Bank settlements began in November of last year. It was aimed at demonstrating Israeli willingness to compromise and enticing Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas into peace talks, as fervently desired by Obama. The moratorium was a major and precarious concession because the West Bank is disputed territory to which both the Israeli and Palestinian sides stake a claim. Halting Israeli construction there while Palestinian construction continued apace gave a message that was prejudicial and possibly harmful to Israel.
Nevertheless, Abbas continued to stonewall talks until finally — by all accounts — being “dragged” into them a few weeks ago by relentless U.S. and European pressure. He now, though, vows to bolt them — unless Israel extends the building freeze. And now the Obama administration’s pressure is on Israel, to comply with Abbas’s wishes, even though the moratorium was a gratuitous concession in the first place and its extension would rock Netanyahu’s coalition and threaten its breakup.
As Iran keeps advancing toward nuclear weapons despite sanctions, Syria keeps arming with Russian backing, and their proxies Hezbollah and Hamas keep building their power in southern Lebanon and Gaza, respectively. Jerusalem should be focusing on these threats instead of facing what is in effect a U.S.-orchestrated power play to make it give up — in the name of “peace” — West Bank territory that is even more strategic. But the Obama administration’s penchant for being soft toward foes and tough on friends continues, and Israel is bearing the brunt of it.
In another development, Israel’s ostensible peace partner, the Palestinian Authority, has reaffirmed the death penalty for the misdeed of selling land to Israelis. Although a lower court had ruled that such sales were a “minor offense,” the PA’s prosecutor-general appealed to a higher court, which ruled that the original sentence of death was appropriate for such acts.
As noted by the Jerusalem Post’s Khaled Abu Toameh:
In 1997, the PA announced that it would seek the death penalty for any Palestinian convicted of selling land to Jews or Israelis. … Although the PA has thus far refrained from executing those convicted of selling land to Jews, there have been many extrajudicial killings of Palestinian suspects over the past decades.
Why would a U.S. administration regard turning this political entity — along with Gaza, even more barbaric under Hamas — into a sovereign state as a cardinal interest? Why would it pursue this goal obsessively to the point of relentlessly undermining a democratic ally, while showing weakness and passivity toward real threats and adversaries? These are indeed difficult questions.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak, now in the U.S., is basically saying the sanctions on Iran aren’t going to work and there will have to be a more assertive way to stop them from going nuclear. Barak is a dovish character whom the U.S. considers a moderate, so I hope his words are having some effect on the highest policymakers, but I wouldn’t count on it. More likely that Israel will stand alone and have to make its own tough decision.
yep-sure are puzzling questions
I can only hope that your upcoming elections will start to stop the juggernought and that I can,once again, envy America when I see all Americans, whatever their views singing “Land of the free and Home of the brave, with a fervour that I havent seen over the last 18 months or so.
I am afraid that Barack Obama, like the Israelis in Peace Now, and like the Israeli President Shimon Peres, actually believes the Palestinians really want to settle with Israel and that all that is necessary is for Israel to make the right territorial concessions written out in the correct language, and presto, peace is at hand.
Unfortunately the truth is very different and much harsher. It must first be understood that there is no Palestinian Israeli conflict, really, there isn’t. There is however, an almost insane, extremely bloody, and just about immutable genocidal war being waged by the Palestinians against Israel. It is not a war to gain concessions either, it is a war to exterminate Israel and the Jewish People. It is a war that is carried on with arms, rockets and missiles, in Israeli cities and on Israeli borders, it carried on in Palestinian classrooms and universities, it is carried on by all the Palestinian print and electronic media, it is especially waged at the negotiating table where the Palestinians routinely denigrate, villify, and deligitimize Israel and Israeli peace offers.
Secondly, past American administrations were not especially supportive of Israel but at least tried to maintain the appearance of neutrality. The Barack Obama administration officials now sit at the table on the Palestinian side, fully supporting every unreasonable and insane Palestinian demand, as well suggesting their own ways to further humiliate Israel and cast Israel intransigent and rejectionist.
Finally the Obama administration mistakenly believes that there are Israeli concessions which will be so far reaching and so generous that the Palestinians will agree to a peace settlement.
The Obama diplomats are going to find out sooner rather than later that the Palestinians will accept only the destruction of Israel and the extermination of the Jews, the same dreary and despicable demands that the Palestinians have stood firm on for over fifty years.
that REALITY CHECK should be MANDATORY READING for our legislators!
“Russia has decided to sell Syria P-800 Yakhont supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles despite heavy Israeli and American protests.”
I guess that “Reset” button is really working out great between the United States and Russia. Russia has done everything it can to harm our foreign policy. This certainly is not the work of an ally, let alone a friend. Not only are they selling advanced weapons to countries that are going to destabilize the Middle East, but they are also responsible for helping Iran with their nuclear program, a program that will certainly lead to nuclear weapons.
As far as I’m concerned, Russia now is no better than Iran or Syria. We are entering a new Cold War, thanks to Mr. Obama and Ms. Clinton, and we had better come to grips with that fact. I’m puzzled as to why the Russians are doing this, because trade with the West would be much more profitable than trying to assist homicidal third-world nations. But they are doing it and they need to stop it, now, before these weapons are used against us or Israel.
And what has Washington’s response to all this been? Taking our defensive missiles out of Central Europe. Oh yes, that AND unilaterally reducing our nuclear sockpile. That really is showing the Russians we mean business, right? Oh, how I miss Ronald Reagan.
Who is surprised by this, really? People need to accept that this is the Administration. Israel experienced Carter and Clinton, both of which had bad ‘features’ from the Israeli POV. Both the Ford and Bush 41 Admins were hard on Israel in different ways. Ford froze aid because Israel didn’t agree to Egyptian terms fast enough; Bush used loan guarantees to hurt the Likud’s electoral chances in ’92 and bring us Rabin-Peres, knowing full well that Shimon Peres was negotiating secret deals with the PLO BEFORE Rabin was even elected Prime Minister. Now Israel has had 20 months to adjust to the reality of the semi-Saudi regime in Washington.
Obama’s love for the Russians is clear enough. No, that’s not right – his affection for all things and regimes anti-American is clear enough. That this would ‘provoke’ the Russians, Chinese, Iranians, Hugo ‘I’m with Sean Penn’ Chavez and the rest to make mischief is also fairly obvious. Yes, it’s appalling.
So is Israeli naivete, in a way. I was in Israel when Bibi announced the settlement freeze last November. What was he thinking? The day of the announcement, the media was ecstatic – it would be a great event. Netanyahu was late to the press conference. Commentators were telling their audience that this was all coordinated with Washington, that the State Dept was helping to write Bibi’s text, and that this was a good thing. They literally promised that George Mitchell would speak right after Netanyahu, and praise Israel, and US-Israeli relations would enter a new era of harmony. Obama’s hidden affection for the feisty little ally would ‘come out.’
Mitchell did speak. He said, ‘nice try, guys, but that’s not nearly enough. It’s on you to meet more Palestinian demands.’
Ultimately it’s the responsibility of Israeli leaders to recognize the facts of life, to stop fantasizing about American policies, and to say ‘no’ to this pressure. And it is up to us hawkish types to work specifically to change the system so that the people’s voice is heard, but this never actually quite happens…
Larry, you are one of the most thoughtful commenters so I decided to direct this comment to you.
I have become more and more resigned to the belief that most of the political leaders simply react by the seat of their pants. I don’t believe that Netanyahu follows any strategy beyond what occurs to him and his advisors on that day. I remember studying what happened in the early 20th century, the decisions and judgements made that led to two World Wars, and thinking how could they have been so blind to what would follow.
I now understand much better. They will stumble their way into the next war.
Hi, Steve, and thanks. Commentators, kibbitzers, that’s all of up posters, I guess.
Yes, I agree. Terry in Eilat says pretty much the same: Bibi has no strategy. I replied to one of Terry’s posts saying that his strategy is improvisation. That’s also an old Israeli standard, from what I have observed.
It is also as you and I have both said – a lack of faith. Had the Israeli political elites faith in our rights to the land, then enemies and ‘friends’ would back off, and the Arabs actually contemplate respecting us. Instead, we get the same cycles of futility over and over.
I think it will take a new generation in Israel to overcome this, people now in their 20s and 30s who understand what brought about the expulsions and who are mostly free of the exilic mindset. Except for Yitzhak Shamir, I can’t think of one PM of Israel that was mostly free of the need to ‘please the Gentiles.’
You should give more credit to Begin. It was he who authorized the strike on Iraq’s nuclear facility, knowing there would be fallout from the US. Ditto when he extended Israeli sovereignty over the Golan. Read Yehuda Avner’s recent book “The Prime Ministers” as he describes Begin insisting to the US ambassador, Sam Lewis, that Israel was not a “vassal state” over Reagan’s plan to launch a new peace plan after coordinating with Arab countries, but not Israel. Can one even imagine Netanyahu speaking in such a fashion to Mitchell or Clinton, much less Obama?
True, he did those things and said proud things to different pols around the world. He also made a cardinal mistake in establishing the basis for Oslo by agreeing to all of Sadat’s demands, especially as regards a future Pal state. Note that Begin went into hiding while still PM; supposedly the reason was the failed Lebanon war of 1982. That was part of the story, but in my opinion he had begun to understand the major can of worms opened vis-a-vis the Pals. Iraq notwithstanding, Menachem B let the Pal trojan horse into the back yard.
Steve, I second your comment regarding Larry. His observations and historical acumen brings much truth to the web discourse.
Hey Larry, is the Silicon moniker because you hail from ‘Silicon Valley’? Just curious, I have a soft spot for that region.
Thanks, Adina. Nice to hear as some guy on Palin’s thread just accused me of being a troll for Barry Soetoro. Yes, live here now but am on my way back to Israel soon. Am a native of San Jose, actually, kind of a rarity.
Clearly the Russian Bear couldn’t give a fig about Israel’s security, certainly not Obama’s feeble and ineffective “engagement of equals” for a common cause, Mideast stability or international peace. No, the Bear looks after its own hide, the rest of the world be damned. The Bear only stands on its hind feet and takes notice when it and its interests are directly at risk.
Israel, like more and more of the world, is learning that Obama is simply not taken seriously by the world’s “evil doers.” So Israel would be wise to look to a real American president for inspiration. It ought to take a lesson from Ronald Reagan and do what the Gipper did. Make it in the Bear’s interest to stop its international destabilization efforts.
For example, if Putin feels it is in the Bear’s interest to arm Israel’s enemy, Iran. Israel should return the favor by arming the Bear’s adversaries – say the Chechnya resistance. As long as Russia funnels weapons to Iran, Israel should funnel weapons to Chechnya.
This tactic, used so successfully in Afghanistan in the 1980s, will get the Bear’s attention. The Bear may be a thoughtless brute, but it has a long memory.
They could just start military assistance to Georgia which they stopped because of Russian pressure, but then who knows about the Iranian AA missile deal.
The Israeli/Indian Barak-8 system is more than capable as a defense against this type of anti-ship missile. I dont know how many Israeli ships have it though and from what I have read close in systems like the phalynx wont work. Also the Israelis could be caught by suprise, which is what happened with the silkworm launched by Hezbolla. They could also launch a swarm even though Barak-8 is capable of hitting multiple targets including spotter drones or planes.
One advantage is that Israel knows about this now and Syria can be held accountable if one is launched, they cant blame Hezbolla.
I think in the long run Israel cannot rely on a defensive strategy. Too many missiles out there. It needs an offensive plan capable of destroying both Syrian and Lebanese forces within hours. Interesting that today IDF indicated that the first Iron Dome system will be deployed in the north at an air base rather than around Gaza as expected.
Are they giving Israel a good dose of Cloward-Pivin?
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/oct/15/the-cloward-piven-strategy/
Viator, indeed they are operating via Cloward Piven techniques. Absolutely.
How can you not feel safe and sleep well when you know that it is in the hands of men like Barack Obama that our security lies. (insert your best Timothy Geithner giggle)
The unrelenting pressure will NOT stop . . . it absolutely can not be stopped. . . there is a very clear reason for this pressure on the Israelis . . . Hiliary Clinton must have the “feather of peace” in her bonnet if she is to stand a chance in the 2014 elections. I believe that the current POTUS has in essence committed political suicide . . . he is cooked and knows it. Thus, if any kind of Peace Treaty can be forced through, keep in mind the expertise of this administration at “forcing it down our throats”. A friend can beforced to eat cake . . . an enemy can not be forced to do so. Israel must break the knot that has their dog tied to the current administration for nothing but hazardous to deadly scenarios can be invisioned.
It was another analyst (Desouza, I think) who described Obama’s world view as derived from the anti-colonialism of his Kenyan father – supporting the third world underdog from the depravities and exploitations of the developed world. It’s therefore not surprising that Obama has gone beyond the claimed “even-handedness” of his predecessors to act effectively as an advocate for the Palestinians.
The problem with the Americans and even more so the Europeans is that they think if they issue a command, “freeze the settlements,” that Netanyahu has the power to do so even if he wanted to to, which he doesn’t. It may work in the rest of the Middle East since they are all run by autocrats. But Israel is a democracy. The coalition would collapse if Netanyahu tried to do something lacking support among the majority in his government and the people who elected them.
Democracies are messy. Moldova, Belgium, Iraq hold elections and nothing happens. Australia and Sweden hang by threads. Israel has a stable government and a more or less healthy economy. Why should the Israeli government plunge the people into chaos simply to appease Obama? Bibi announced the freeze in the first place to lower the pressure from Obama. But now Obama is weakened so he can be more or less ignored.
All this makes me wonder if Israel’s Samson Plan includes a nuclear attack on Russia. This would be fitting in a world where Russia does its best to aid Israel’s worst enemies.
Obama and Netanyahu are both human, but a blunder committed by the POTUS is more consequential than one by the Israeli PM. Unfortunately, the former is a misguided amateur, but thanks God the latter is an experienced statesman. It will take a lot of hard work by the grown-ups around Netanyahu to undo the damage caused by a loose canon and his acolytes in the WH.
The answer to the ‘why’ question, in the last paragraph, sums the situation up best concerning
Washington’s plans for Israel.Leave it to David to cut to the heart of the matter.
Obama is determined, come hell or high water, to miniaturize Israel. This is both a promise he made to his Muslim benefactors, and to his radical left supporters.
The very fact that progressive alliances are working behind the scenes to destroy Israel-via ‘Free Gaza’ movements and assorted PA booster clubs-is part and parcel of Obama’s stealth jihad, however, via his community organizing compatriots.
On the other side of the spectrum is the ‘peace’ process, at the VERY same time that a rational leader would be laser focused on Iran, the biggest threat to world stability since Hitler.
Therefore, the ONLY conclusion to be drawn is, that the desire to destroy Israel takes many forms, whichever one works is good enough for Obama and his co-conspirators.
The next question then becomes-are Israel’s leaders resigned to our destruction-piece by piece- or, are they just buying their own time,in other words, can they walk and chew gum at the same time?
Those who refuse to miniaturize Israel, as you put it, are condemming Jews in Israel to become a minority in their own land. “Judea” and “Samaria” are strategic liabilities in the long run.