Middle East Uprisings: What Did We Expect?
No, really. Did we expect Hosni Mubarak to rule for another decade and then quietly die in a hospital in Switzerland and transfer the presidency to Gamal Mubarak? Or did we expect him to hand over power to Omar Suleiman or another military man? Is that how the West expected its alliances to not crumble?
The truth is, we — and by that I mean all the pro-democracy/anti-Islamic fundamentalist crew — had no plans. The fort in Egypt was going to be held by Mubarak and Co. and that’s that. We simply slept and concentrated on the Taliban, Hamas, Hezbollah, and al-Qaeda. Heck, nobody even mentioned the Muslim Brotherhood or paid heed to warnings from people with experience in Middle Eastern affairs that after the protests in Iran in 2009, things were not going to be the same. That is until the wave of protests in Tunisia hit us with the truth.
And the truth is we didn’t make the right allies. The men who rule much of the Islamic world with an iron fist aren’t there to protect the West from the coming “caliphate,” which I might add is a laughable idea. (You need only see the bickering between Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan to realize that a united Islamic empire is a dream that will never come to fruition).
Middle Eastern dictators are allies to themselves only. Of course, if they can consolidate their power by pandering to Western demands a bit, they will. To them, Islamic fundamentalism is just as scary as political dissidents who want democracy, civil rights, and economic prosperity. Yet we are wondering who will be the next ally to fall and ignoring the obvious question: how do we make allies with the people?
Herein lies our first misconception: The West is allied with Egypt. The West was never allied with Egypt. It was allied with Mubarak. And something tells me that in hindsight, we were fully aware of this fact because now that there is a chance that the people of Egypt might rule themselves, we’re fearful of the alliance’s future. But few — even Emperor Obama I of the Freedom Federation — were willing to admit this before Cairo erupted in protests.
Again, what exactly did we expect? Why didn’t we start pressuring Mubarak before he was thrown out of office to bring about democratic reform? President Bush realized this and took a few steps. But why didn’t those steps transform into real action? Because we continuously treat Muslims and people from the Arab world as illiterate savages who will never learn the meaning of democracy, civil rights, and the power of the people to overthrow autocrats. They were not good enough to be allies, and only the brutal dictators that ruled them were reasonable to be friends with.
That gave rise to the second misconception: while Mubarak and Co. ruled with brutality, the only people who were concerned about the human rights situation in their domain lived in the West.
Two weeks ago, the night protesters in Tahrir Square were being fired upon from all sides by thugs and criminals with sniper rifles, and many in the West thought it was the end of the uprising. I got this message from a guy in the square: “There are women and children here. The thugs are shooting at us. I see people getting hit. I see blood. I know they want to force us out of here. But I won’t go. We want dignity. We want freedom. We want prosperity. Thirty years of oppression is simply too much for me to care about my life. Either Mubarak leaves or we all die here.”
Hours later, the thugs left. The square was never attacked as seriously again.
Why weren’t we trying to make alliances with people like him?
Egypt is a direct result of Sarah Palin and the Tea Party, although, none of our commie, anti-American captive media will acknowledge it. She proved that a dynamic populace can stop a corrupt, non-responsive government in it’s tracks. Our mechanism was our elective process. The Egyptian mechanism was demonstrations in the capitol.
The Egyptians stopped Mubarak; we stopped ourBarak. Same corruption, same arrogance, same non-responsiveness. If the Egyptians survive; if we survive, we both owe the Tea Party and Sarah Palin thanks!
Or we could just mind our own business. Now there’s a radical idea.
Excellent idea. Now all that’s left is for the Muslims to reciprocate.
Ditto, Ferenc.
James,
We’re not just fighting a war against radical jihadists, but we’re actively engaged with the largely un-militarized populations of the Middle East who want the same thing as any other human being: liberty, security and economic prosperity.
How can the West expect these populations to be its allies when the West is actively supporting their suppressors without any meaningful support for reform in those societies?
Tell me that when Ron Paul is president and I might be susceptible to listening.
So if we minded our own business we wouldn’t have been perceived as supporting Mubarak. The U.S. never really supported him anyway; all the U.S. gov’t ever did is collude with Israel to hand back the Sinai to give Mubarak a running start in terms of prestige in his own country that would mask a peace with Israel – after that we duped him into letting us arm him in a way he couldn’t use the army without our servicing that army; nice car no garage service if driven in the wrong direction.
That last was shrewd but no big deal since Egypt wasn’t going to attack Israel anyway. How many times do you think these polities around Israel are going to violate the rule of law, have their heads handed to them and then run to the U.N. to enforce the rule of law which by the way is the running soap opera of the Palestinian Arabs?
Who’s the ‘we’ and how is that ‘we’ actively engaged with those who want political freedom?
I spent 9 of the last 16 days in Tahrir Square including another day in a running street fight with riot police. I say let these people do this their way without any interference from the U.S. gov’t whose foreign policy since the end of WW II has been one ignorant blunder after another.
The U.S. and Britain pressured Israel to give the Sinai back to Egypt, along with the oil wells Israel developed and beautiful Sharm el-Sheikh. What nation would be so foolish as to surrender land to the attacker? The attacker will surely attack again!
After the 1979 peace agreement Israel made with Egypt where Israel surrendered the Sinai to Egypt; triumphant and victorious Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, boasted in a New York Times interview: “Poor Menachem, he has his problems… After all, I got back… the Sinai and the Alma oil fields, and what has Menachem got? A piece of paper.” For signing this worthless piece of paper the U.S. gifts aggressor Egypt with 2.2 billion dollars every year.
Incidentally, the U.S. is in no financial position to give a single dollar to any country or organization. America is in very big trouble!
What’s wrong with you?
Unless we exhibit STRENGTH, we are not strong.
Even Obambi could exhibit strength, but, you’ll never see it before you die.
He’s doing his best to SCREW THE USA!
In other words stick our fingers in our ears and ignore the rest of the planet? We live in far to complex a planet to do that.
Keep dreaming Josh. It’s a good way to attract girls.
Come to the dark side… *grin*
The writer seems to ignore all facts that interfere with his thesis/
Pakistan?
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jan/21/world/la-fg-pakistan-religion-20110121
Why isn’t Turkey on the list? A formerly democratic country now under Islamic rule.
Any time you see ” human rights activist ” red lights should go off.
Menachem Ben Yakov,
Showing wisdom once again, my old friend. Why do memories of ‘peaceful’ Hamas come to mind? I would preface this journalist’s name with gullible, perhaps naive. But the predictable response would be accusation of the old liberal favorite “logical fallacy take your pick.”
I’ll bet Menachem, if we could just assist in pushing six million Jews into the Mediterranean, everything would okay. For awhile.
Menachem,
The point here is: is it possible for a democratic or even semi-democratic Islamic country can be an ally to the West or at least not wage an open war against it. I think I’ve made that point.
And next time, come up with something better than a failed attempt at an ad hom.
Where there is Islam there is no peace, freedom, dignity or human rights. Sadly, some Muslims even move to the West and want Sharia there too. There is no reasoning with people who firmly and blindly believe in an insane, violent ideology who are so gripped by backwards thinking and ruled by antiquated laws that they refuse to be open to any other way of life and there are those who definitely don’t want anyone else to have religious freedom, human rights and equality either.
How does one reason with a majority of people who believe in lopping off body parts, public stonings and savage “honor” killings? Look at the Muslim men who flew the planes into American buildings on 9/11, or the Muslim nut-job who went on a killing spree for ‘Allah’ at the Fort Hood Army base and these men were well-educated and knew the freedoms of the West and not some ignorant drones living in isolation and squalor who brought the destruction of mercilessly gruesome Jihad. If even well-educated and westernized Muslims can bring the worst of their beliefs to a bloody and tragic crescendo, I have very little faith that Muslims living in the Middle East can achieve anything close to the West without purging themselves of Islam altogether and as swiftly as possible.
[And yes, that would indeed take a miracle of epic proportions].
I’m running low on hope and all I see is for the future of those who bend their necks to Islam is a lot of anguish, brutality, pain, madness and mayhem coupled with unspeakable horror to come, but, I’ll try to remain an optimistic pessimist and pray.
Such a good Catholic!
Who are you calling a Catholic?
TO: Josh Shahryar
RE: Well….
What did you expect? — Josh
…..I sort of expected THIS.
Been expecting it for the last 15 years, now that I reflect on it.
Not in terms of actual specifics, i.e., names, dates, places. More like ‘broad brush’ Muslims rising to the ‘occasion’, so to say. But this particular ‘understanding’ is all based on an ‘understanding’ that is not particularly ‘appreciated’ by most people. Something I read in an Old Book written so long ago.
Heck. Even in the first ‘book’ of that Old Book, it says, “His hand will be raised against every man. And every man’s hand will be raised against him.” Or words to that effect…..
Regards,
Chuck(le)
[Dates in prophecy are closer on your calendar than perceived.]
Chuck,
Ishmael ain’t bad. Add some humor and it makes for brilliant commentary.
Relatively stable dictatorships are, frequently but not always, easier for a democratic government to deal with that fragile or unstable democracies. Setting aside the Tsarist Russia to Soviet Union to “democratic” Russia situation, I am hard pressed to point out a single transition from home grown dictator to home grown, stable, democratic rule in the last 75 years. Few of the colonial to home government changes post 1960 have turned out well. That is among the many reasons most Western Nations are not so sanguine about the likely results in Tunisia, Egypt, or any other potential “democratic revolution” in the Middle East anytime soon.
Spinoneone:
South Korea? Argentina? Did you miss those?
Argentina? Are you kidding? Dictator to military coup to unstable quasi-democratic regime to today where things are far from certain? South Korea went from a Japanese colony to a U.S. puppet to now a vibrant democracy. Perhaps an exception to my rule. But, nevertheless, the odds are not good. In the entire Arab/Islamic world you have a core group committed to following the prophet’s dictum that the only good government is a theocracy with sharia law. Even Turkey, often held out as a paragon of democratic values in a sea of Islam, seems to be sliding down the slope to Islamism.
Josh is indeed ignoring anything that contradicts his thesis.
The mobs in Egypt want shaaria law – you know, where thieves get their left hand amputated, women get whipped within an inch of their lives for bringing male relatives into their home, and just throwing out a card with Mohammad’s name on it is a capital crime against Islam. It’s the Islamic version of no cruel or unusual punishment. They want Islam as the state religion of Egypt further driving down the Copts into dhimmitude – the Islamic version of freedom of religion. For continuing the cold peace with Israel they accuse Mubarak of being a Zionist and they’d rather prefer a jihad – you know, the mass murder kind. They want one man one vote too – the just this once, kind.
“WHAT DID WE EXPECT?
Hindsight is 20/20.
What we DO expect is completely WORTHLESS. just read the main stream media, and watch the antithesis of their evaluation.
Josh – Mubarak was paid $1.5 billion plus to keep the alliance with Israel intact. He was paid to fight against Islamic fundamentalism and of course to keep Egypt’s army in power. Your article states you now want to pay money and influence Egypt’s constitution to include separation of Church and State. You did say Church? Civil liberties and human rights start at home, not dictated. It is called respect for others, not death to others. Eighty-five percent of Egyptians want Sharia law. Josh, your article is full of hope and dreams. The old history book, yes that book, speaks volumes. “Like a man who catches at shadows or chases wind is one who believes in dreams.”
The author is letting his sentiment run away with him. This romance of mass democratic movements is seductive, I agree. But the fact is there is a strategic framework within which all these strategic-framework-oblivious romances depend upon – presuming that framework remains authored and maintained by nations governed, in their essence, by Anglo-American sensibilities. Although we have learned over the past decade that there are indeed peoples among the traditional Asiatic society-lettes that want bourgeois freedom of commerce and speech, there are many, many people within those societies that prefer that their own sensibilities dominate. The tribe, the mosque, the school of jurisprudence, the umma may prevail over the republican architecture and its predicte, the indulgence of thy neighbor’s habits. And it is useful, in the scheme of things, to have our Anglo-American societies reflexively support democracy movements, or what appear to be democracy movements on tv. Because then, I suppose, they have more of a chance of success.
But the ME strategic disposition is not just about the security of Israel, as some idiots have it. It’s about having acheived a sufficient consensus in the region that holds the ultimate expressions of “Saudi” and “Egyptian” and “Syrian” society in a tolerable balance. Too few people have an appreciation for the tenuous nature of this consensus. They may be about to get a very serious lesson in what it looks like when the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah, allied foreign governments through their intelligence agencies – I don’t think they (those among them who are honest) are going to like it.
Of course I could be wrong. I’m of two minds about this Egyptian thing. It really just might work. Even if, as I believe, it was a coup engineered by the military, that could be an indication that the officer corps has (1) realized the benefits of democracy to contain and diffuse Islamist political ambition, and (2) has given in to the pressure we have undoubtedly been exerting on their military – ruling – establishment. That would be the absolute best outcome for “the freedom strategy.” That the operatives on the US side realize that they do have the power to push the ruling establishment to democracy would be fantastic (one person or clique never really rules something as complex as a modern nation, or even what passes as a modern nation for UN purposes).
But the Arab culture rarely fails to disappoint. There is too much rot in it. Maybe this is the beginning of it exorcizing that – and they can revive their culture. At some point you’d think they would any way – why not now? But not only is there ingrained cultural resistance to some predicates of a liberal culture, there are also enemy intelligence agencies at work exacerbating all things that contradict the desired result. Anything that will push the society in the desired direction, they exploit it, and exaggerate it, and publicize it and make politcal warfare out of it. And that can simply take the form of showing the only power capable of intervening seeing what it wants to see – and so it relaxes.
So what if the protestors are indeed members of the middle class and upper-but-not-ruling class who want democracy – what of they could be simply brought out into the streets, long enough to bring down the government? But what if the only real predicate to the junta’s taking power was that the old dictator is kicked out – nevermind how or what the people think they are doing?
I contradict myself? The crowds in Tahrir Square were not asking for any of what you just cited as if it were actual FACT. Yes, there were some fundamentalists there, but largely, it was about democracy and civil liberties.
Now coming to your second point, here’s a contradiction. You seem all butthurt about how Egyptians – as you claim – want a repressive form of Sharia Islam yet what about allies like Saudi Arabia? Would you be willing to stand up to the tyranny that’s being unleashed there in the name of Islam?
Next time, before you accuse someone of something, make sure you’re not the guilty of the same crime.
Actually, yes, Josh. The contradictions in the article are startling. Do you expect people to believe that the average ‘pro-democracy’ protester was virulently anti-Mubarak but pro-military? It is far more likely that they realize that overthrowing military rule is impossible at this stage, and that the army is a huge player in Egypt. It is almost like the state there, according to many reports. So they are going to hope for a rise of elements in the military that favor their beliefs.
The real questions to me are – what are those beliefs and how consistently will the masses work to achieve them, assuming there is some sort of consensus. It will be ironic but not surprising if conservative ‘secular’ elements in the military (closer to Mubarak than to ‘average Egyptians’) retain control. But in the end, the scenario will repeat until they get a gov’t that reflects their feelings (or not).
It is that you and many others have rushed to conclude that ‘freedom-loving democracy’ is both the aim of these protesters and within their abilities to create that is so bothersome. The TV is focused on the guy from Google, PJM likes SandMonkey. And where does the average Egyptian stand?
Actually the protesters in Tahrir Square, naively or not, were in fact pro-military.
They trust the army and felt the army was in Tahrir to protect them. On the very first full day of the occupation of the square they were hugging them, putting them on their shoulders and encouraging them.
At the same time the protesters very firmly let the army know that they, the protesters were in charge of the square and slept on the very treads of the tanks and armored personnel carriers so they couldn’t move to constrict the protesters.
When it was all over they hugged and kissed the soldiers and during the 2 days after Mubarak’s resignation, Cairene’s are arriving and having their photos taken with the soldiers.
The protesters actively supported the army taking control of the government and dismantling it so a new constitution can be written. Generally speaking, the anti-gov’t protesters trust the army but was not taking orders from them before Mubarak stepped down and will not put up with a new gov’t being formed that is not as the protesters want it.
If the army doesn’t do what they wish the anti-Mubarak crowd will take to the streets again. Whether the army will use live fire in order to protect the lucrative franchises of governor’s (80% former military) for example, is unknown.
Pakistan has Sharia law.
Only in the area being overrun by the militant Taliban and even there, not entirely in practice.
Its not JUST Egypt dont get sucked in to the moonbat version of reality Nigeria,Yemen, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Indonesia , Jordan, Turkey, Kosovo, Bosnia, Malaysia, Sudan, Kenya, UK, USA, Germany, Spain, France, Norway, Sweden, Denmark in fact everywhere Mohammedans are they are flexing their muscles funded by Petro Dollars and the Saudi Govt. This is an ISLAMIC world wide thing not just isolated to Egypt. Wake up before its too late,
No Josh you know very well that the main reason for all the trouble is the price of oil and keeping the US military funded. The democrats would love to instigate cut-backs.
The events came as no surprise to the U.S. administration. The U.S. government wanted Mubarak out and the radical Muslim Brotherhood ruling Egypt. Another Iran.
The Telegraph
Egypt protests: America’s secret backing for rebel leaders behind uprising
The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change” for the past three years, The Daily Telegraph has learned.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8289686/Egypt-protests-Americas-secret-backing-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html
Egyptian protesters promise to destroy Israel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWcKewmyh_o&feature=player_embedded
Muslim Brotherhood Wants War With Israel
Forex Bits | Yohay | January 31, 2011 2:54 pm GMT
Mohamed Ghanem, one of the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, calls Egypt to stop pumping gas to Israel and prepare the Egyptian army for a war with it’s eastern neighbor.
http://www.forexcrunch.com/muslim-brotherhood-wants-war-with-israel/
What do the Egyptian Muslims want? They have an enormous enthusiasm to be ruled by Islamic sharia law. (I don’t agree with Caroline Glick that our leaders are clueless! US leaders know EXACTLY what they are doing)
http://www.jpost.com
Our World: Clueless in Washington
By CAROLINE B. GLICK
02/01/2011
…However, the character of the protesters is not liberal.
Indeed, their character is a bigger problem than the character of the regime they seek to overthrow.
According to a Pew opinion survey of Egyptians from June 2010, 59 percent said they back Islamists. Only 27% said they back modernizers. Half of Egyptians support Hamas. Thirty percent support Hizbullah and 20% support al Qaida. Moreover, 95% of them would welcome Islamic influence over their politics. When this preference is translated into actual government policy, it is clear that the Islam they support is the al Qaida Salafist version.
Eighty two percent of Egyptians support executing adulterers by stoning, 77% support whipping and cutting the hands off thieves. 84% support executing any Muslim who changes his religion.
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Article.aspx?id=206121
The alarming problem for America and other Western nations who are being heavily colonized by Muslim immigrants is that a large percent of Muslims want Islamic sharia law implemented in their host countries.
Wonderful article! Honest, grown-up, clear-headed.
Too bad so many readers can’t, or simply don’t want, to understand it.