McCain’s Keys to the Keystone State
“Pennsylvania is a John Wayne state, not a Jane Fonda state.”
– Former PA Gov. Bob Casey
April 22, 2008, was supposed to be a bloody battle across the vast Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. It wasn’t. Despite seven weeks of polls reporting that the state was a dead heat, Hillary Clinton blew away Barack Obama by over 200,000 votes.
Not only were Pennsylvanians enraged at being called “bitter” by a candidate speaking in America’s wealthiest city, but many Hillary fans thought sexism was rampant, as is believed currently. I journeyed along the southwestern part of the Keystone State on a brilliant fall weekend to discover more.
Based on my travels this election season, I feel confident in saying that, aside from the “white guiltists” and the liberal intelligentsia, most Americans over 30, of all political stripes and religious affiliations, are morally conservative. While they may differ on abortion or gay marriage, the vast majority seek to enforce tighter borders, keep their families safe, get honest news, lower their taxes, and rid themselves of programs and policies that they feel are antithetical to how we became the world’s superpower. This is true in Indiana where I live, in my native California, and it sure as heck is true in 99% of Pennsylvania.
In 2008, most Pennsylvanians are not concerned with whether “America is ready for a black president,” but rather, whether the next leader will be honest with them and keep our nation prosperous. Others are miffed by their own congressmen deeming them redneck bigots. Some also may wonder why Obama’s two books are hagiographies of himself and his father, instead of his “typical white” grandparents, who, after his mother left him to pursue her studies in Asia, raised him, and worked hard to put him through the most exclusive prep school in Hawaii.
“This year’s election will come down to whether or not Americans can feel comfortable with Barack Obama as our next president,” said Michael Barley, spokesman for the Republican Party of Pennsylvania, in an email to me. “He lacks experience, and now that he is finally beginning to be challenged by the mainstream media, Americans are seeing that his plans lack substance.”
Much to the chagrin of the pro-Obama media, Hollywood, snooty Brits, the French, envious “feminists,” yuppies, and even some conservatives, Sarah Palin entered the fray. From week one, the strong-willed and telegenic hockey mom took aim at Obama, saying people in small towns like the one she grew up in “don’t quite know what to make of a candidate who lavishes praise on working people when they are listening, and then talks about how bitterly they cling to their religion and guns when those people aren’t listening.”
Seeing a female on a national Republican ticket caused the Democrats to become apoplectic. They panicked, espoused hatred, made up stories, and called her names. They hid out at her rallies. Professors gave assignments to “critique” her, and juvenile journalists mocked her “accent” while tainting her photos. As they ignored the mishaps of their own female leader and their nominee, it seemed Democrats truly believed Palin was running for president — not second in command.
FOOLS GOLD: VOTING ON A FALSE PREMISE
The Obama campaign is fully vested in the emotional manipulation of voters as examined at this link:
http://greensrealworld.blogspot.com/2008/10/fools-gold-voting-on-false-premise.html
One of the best things McCain has said in the past month or so is “I’m not George Bush – if you wanted to run against George Bush you should have run 4 years ago.”
He should now, finally, say: “Barack Obama is, I’m sorry to say, lying to you. He has no record of voting against his party, his fame is due to his appeal to the most radical members of the Democratic base, and he has a much longer history of radical sponsors than his actual political career – which, again, only demonstrates that he is extremely partisan, not ‘post-partisan.’ If you are sincere in your conviction that partisan attacks are driving this nation off course, I, not Barack Obama, am your candidate, and I have the record to prove it.”
Generally sound analysis with respect to Western PA but ignores the reality that more than the Philadelphia Dem vote needs to be countered if McCain is to win PA–it’s the entire four county ring of Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery and Cheter which has shifted to either full-blown Dem or socially-progressive, fiscally-conservative R which has been voting Dem in the last several elections. If Obama wins Philly, the surrounding counties, Allegheny and Center (Penn State), he doesn’t really need the rural areas. I completely agree with your points on Rendell who has been making nothing more than token appearances for Obama and whose head and heart are clearly with Hillary in 2012.
Mr. Kaufman is a bright, talented young writer. But it would appear at this late date in the campaign that he is essentially “whistling in the graveyard” vis a vis McCain’s chances of pulling the PA upset he so fervently desires.
I agree with Mike’s statement…analysis is very sound and brings to mind some provocative thoughts on the state mindset and voter behavior (along with Rendell’s role in this process); but personally I think that the more populated centers (and surrounding areas)of Eastern PA are going to carry the day in the state…mainly due to his superior organization (shady as it might be with ACORN-style registration, et al.) in mobilizing potential dems within those urban centers. The republicans seem fervent and loyal within much of the state – but the gross numbers there don’t seem to add up to what Obama’s team can mine within Philly and the surrounding areas.
Hopefully your hypothesis proves correct….
I believe Bucks County outside of Philadelphia will go for McCain this year, but unfortunately not Montgomery County. This is only a feeling, but I’ve never seen such a large contingent of people placing signs for a Republican…..In this area it used to be very quiet and tacit as to who you supported. That does not seem to be the case this year.
Know a bunch of Kerry Democrats who are not going for Obama this year, some are even Union members.
Hold your breath as these are very subjective, but I think McCain has a good shot at upsetting Obama in PA.
Maybe, maybe not PDK. But I can’t help but notice that, on the internet at least, a huge number of Obama supporters are counting the votes before they’re cast. That’s a recipe for surprise.
PERSONALLY-MR OBAMA AND MR MURTHA ARE HEADING FOR THE SAME CRUSHING DEFEAT TOM DEWEY SUFFERED IN 1948. MURTHA JUST YESTERDAY REFERRED TO LT COL BILL RUSSELL,HIS CHALLENGER,AS A ‘CARPETBAGGER”. HEY MURTHA-WANT A CARPETBAGGER,ILL GIVE YOU HILDEBEAST CLINTON IN NEW YORK IN 2000. MURTHA,YOU FAT PIG,BY THE TIME THOSE BITTER CLINGERS GET RID OF OBAMACOMMIE AND YOUR FAT ARSE,YOULL BE NEEDING FRED SANFORD TO HELP YOU RECOVER FROM THE ‘BIG ONE”. AND IM NOT REFERRING TO YOUR GIRTH,MURTHA,YOU OVERWEIGHT SLIME. NO MORE “PORK” FOR YOU MURTHA LOVERS WHO LIVE ON THE GOVT DOLE.
kevin c:
I see that we have some really intelligent analysis from kevin. I bet that will really convert the undecided
1) The gap in PA is a PERCEIVED gap created by the lefty leaning media.
2) These same non-objective members of the 4th estate then say “odds are long that McCain can overcome this deficit”
WHAT DEFICIT? This is not a football game in the 3rd quarter?
Obama could win PA, but it will have zero to do with the bigus polls.
Kaufman does a good job of explaining why McCain has a very good shot to win PA
What I have noticed is that it is mostly, almost exclusively, the MSM that, with their pseudo polls with skewing and slanting, have been suggesting that Barack Obama might win.
However, much to the contrary, and given that of the 12% Blacks in America — an estimated less than 5% will vote for Obama (less than 14 million Black adult voters in a country of more than 305 million!) — McCain has a better than most chance to win big time on next Tuesday.
Over the last several months, we have learned that Obama is a radical, repugnant, and incessant liar. Obama is a thug much like the many, many “friends” and “mentors” he hangs with — Rezko, Farrakhan, Rev. Wright, Khalidi, communist Frank Marshall David and others. Now we learn that Obama is definitively a socialist and extremist leftist. Obama gets upset when TV hosts point this out — why? — because it’s the truth. Barack Hussein Obama is a loser.
The tens of millions, and more, voters that have learned the ugly truths about Barack Obama are NOT going to vote for him. They will defeat Obama.
Obamalies or Lies Obama Tells:
http://www.nextgenerationcorp.com/NextGenBlog/?p=73
The best hope we have for our economy, our military, our health, and our freedom is to vote for John McCain — honorable, with integrity, and a true patriot.
God Bless America.
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/
FOX News obtained a copy of a memo Hildebrand sent to long-standing Democratic operatives on Tuesday. With the Obama campaign saying that there’s trouble; they sent a “memo out to boost efforts in Florida but that similar memos were also sent out seeking help in North Carolina, Georgia and Ohio. He said needs were less acute in Pennsylvania”
There’s trouble brewing. This is not what you want days before an election.
And the comment about PA is revealing too.
Clearly, the Obama campaign are unsure of their data and PA is perhaps off the map. Because they can’t rely on the data after Shrillary trounced them there.
In other words, they are in deep doodoo and flying blind.
I have a lot of faith in Mr.Kaufman’s analysis. A week from now I hope that faith will be justified. I also put my trust in the “silent majority” which does exist in many areas of this country.
Completely aside from the Pennsylvania topic I have a question which really bothers me.I’m listening to the various polls and the numbers alone don’t concern me, but since when do we have numbers for African -American voters? Can you imagine the cry there would be if we had a white voters poll?The 2 o’clock news said in FL the African-Americans were 93% for Obama and 4% for McCain. Why isn’t that racist?
Sorry to get off topic. I agree with the Ari Kaufman concerning Pennsylvania and I would add Ohio to the McCain column too.
I drive through the suburbs of PA, Bucks county every day…and see more McCain/Palin signs this year than I did Kerry/Edwards in 2004. This is very telling…
AdrianS – I think you got your black voting numbers wrong. Blacks will vote FOR Obama about 97-1.
As to the article, it read like a long sereis of talking points. There was very little data as regards the demographics of PA, populations, voter history breakdown. I’ll have to wait for the Pennsylvanians to weigh in with that info for this article to be convincing.
That said, my gut says that PA will, indeed, be an ugly shock for Obama. This is based on my sense of what certain types of Americans value. They’ll vote their pocketbooks, until you cross the line on some of their deeply held core values. Then, the resentment just simmers until unleashed.
Dem supporters like to point to their huge, coordinated ground game, and point to the lack of the equivalent in the Pub camp. What they don’t get is that conservatives operate differently. A quiet, confidential talk with a neighbor. A whisper campaign. No response, or white lies, to pollsters. Keeping their own counsel. Don’t hang your dainties on the clothesline. Quietly go vote.
If this happens in PA, if the trend becomes obvious, it’ll sweep across the nation, as they’re on EST. It could create a huge upset in the western states.
My final prediction excluding 3rd party votes:
Obama 50.35
McCain 49.65
Montgomery, Bucks, and Chester counties will deliver too many liberal female soccer Mom votes to Obama for McCain to overcome in the rest of the state.
Repeal the 19th !
- The Albatross
I was born and raised in a little town in western PA and I like to think I have keep those values. Many of the comments hear I truly believe, I hate the bullying of the elitists, the media, and the Obama campaign. They continuouly tell us what we should think, and what we should believe, and what we should say. I have heard a great deal of talk of a revolution over the past months and I think thatgoing to come but I think that the revolution is going to be against the elite, anf the media, because to be honest with you I have had enough. I was raised in a union/democrat household but I will NOT be voting for Obama/Biden and media/elitist if that make me a Racist I DON’T CARE
AND I DON’T THINK I’M ALONE
First of all, Blossom, I have missed ou since your TV show went off the air. How is your buddy Six?
As usual, Mr. Kaufman writes an article that is well written and uses sound logic. My concern would be that he spent his time in the rural SW sections of the state and not enough in some of the Suburbs. It blows me aways the ratio of Obama to McCain signs in Montgomery County, so hopefully this is more of an aberration and Ari’s research will accurately portray the phenomenon going on here.
Thanks for the wisdom, Mr. Kaufman.
I’m a former Western PA resident. I can tell you that area has always been socially conservative but slightly Democratic. But this is Obama, Biden, Murtha, Pelosi and a real band of radical hooligans running the 2008 Dems, so i think the people will vote MCcain. Abortion and guns are big issues!
As for the rest of the state, very close, but I do believe McCain can pull it off. As for the rest of the “swing” states, I cannot say but this appears to be a very attainable state for the Maverick.
A very good piece. I wonder how disparate the polling will be with how Obama will perform next Tuesday. Nobody really knows but I do know that Ohio and Florida need to go McCainside for there to be any possibilities at all. Penn looks like a dream but I’m hoping too. You’d think Murtha alone would be worth a couple of points for McCain.
Glad to see an article written by someone who actually talked to people instead of just looking at numbers. As many people know, statistics can be very misleading but taking the time to talk to people really gives you the change to go behind the numbers and see what the truth is.
There’s just no empirical evidence so far that McCain is competitive in PA. I wish it weren’t so. If the polls are actually off by this much in PA then they’re off by a comparable margin nationally. I really don’t see how that can be the case. My impression is that there are a lot of indecideds or influencable people, but that doesn’t mean they’ll break for McCain at the last minute. Believing that, based on anecdotal evidence, is a classic lesson in how to lose an election.
I live in Bucks county. There are many more (2-3 times) Obama signs than McCain signs in Lower Bucks. The numbers start to even out in central to Upper Bucks except along the Delaware river – New Hope, Point Pleasant (Abby Hoffman’s hideout. That said, there are so few McCain signs (fewer than there were Bush signs in 2004) in Lower Bucks that something else must be going on. I think alot of people in Lower Bucks do not want to publically oppose Obama – it’s not P.C. Obama will roll up huge numbers in Philadelphia and Chester county…and smaller advantages in Bucks and Montgomery counties. McCain will need to hit 65% of the vote in the rest of the state to win Pennsylvania. Who knows? It may happen. It is certainly not a distribution that a pollster would predict.
Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary by 9 percentage points. That is “blown away”? In that case, we must describe what Obama will do to McCain next week as “handing his ass to him.”
Beautifully researched and written. Because Ari, like many of us, wants his predictions to materialize, there’s a tiny bit of emotion factored into his research and observations. However, how can anyone write with passion and persuasion without emotion! Ari has certainly convinced me that a Pennsylvania victory for McCain can happen.
All I can say is: Obama, Biden, Pelosi and Reid. Pennsylvania do the right thing, end this Obama nightmare, pull the lever for McCain PLlllllleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzz
This is wishful thinking. I live in York County, PA, part of the “T” of Pennsylvania, that part of PA where Dems are outnumbered by Republicans. And yet, our local newspaper on Sunday,reported the most recent poll which showed that McCain and Obama are dead even in York Co. If you know anything about PA, then you know that a Republican must win the “T” part of PA by 12-15 points to offset Philly. Based on this recent poll, your scenario is wishful thinking, value voters in York County are voting their pocket books. Nice try though.
10/29:
electoral-vote.com–Obama up by 11
fivethirtyeight.com–98% probability Obama wins
rasmussen.com–Obama up by 7
Etc etc.
I will continue to enjoy the irrelevant crap by McCain’s pundits who whistle by the graveyard. Then enjoy more their pseudo-theories, recriminations, etc after 11/4.
Enjoy!
Always use this picture to remind leftists about WHY they really hate Sarah Palin. It is not for the reasons they mention. Give any leftist spittle-flying shriek by showing them this funny picture.
If they(York Co) are voting their pocketbooks, they better keep both eyes on the Dems. because they are fixing to empty it York County. Obama is lying through his teeth. He is the most liberal Senator in the Senate, even than Teddy boy. They want your money York county and they are going to aspend spend spend.
While this is an excellently written piece and I agree with most of Mr. Kaufman’s views, I think Obama has won this election for ONE reason – Americans want change even if it turns out to be change for the worse. No matter whose fault it is, Americans blame the present regime for this economic disaster.
Percy,
Value voters and pocket books? The incoherence is breathtaking. Obama is promising $400 billion in new spending and has no possible way to pay for it by upping taxes on only 5% of Americans. Obama and a compliant Congress will tax and spend recklessly, making the last Republican-controlled Congress look like a case study in fiscal discipline. The money that would normally be invested in the economy will run for the tall grass. And the jobs and income of the middle class will be hurt the most, as usual. Nice try yourself.
“Some also may wonder why Obama’s two books are hagiographies of himself and his father.”
Let’s just call them auto-hagiographies.
Here’s some good reading for those of you that think McCain has no chance of winning Pennsylvania: Hillbuzz.com seems convinced that “Obama has no shot of winning the Keystone State.”
http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/28/breaking-heres-what-we-know-about-pennsylvania-right-now/
Let’s all remember how shocked the Obamessiah was when his wound up having scrawny little butt whooped by 200,000 votes in PA the last time around…
I worked the phone banks for McCain / Palin this weekend, calling Dems in Philadelphia. Of those I reached live at least 40% were saying they were going to vote McCain/Palin. I could not believe the results I was getting after all of the polls claiming McCain trailing by double digits in PA. If these stats are true for the rest of the state, McCain will more than win the state. Keep your chins up and go volunteer at the nearest McCain / Palin office.
spoken like an angry young man, `take defeat like a man
“1) The gap in PA is a PERCEIVED gap created by the lefty leaning media.
2) These same non-objective members of the 4th estate then say “odds are long that McCain can overcome this deficit”
WHAT DEFICIT? This is not a football game in the 3rd quarter?
Obama could win PA, but it will have zero to do with the bigus polls.”
I have no idea what a 4th estate is but this guy makes sense. Polls are not objective, though they should be. So I think it’s a draw now and we’ll see who wins. Those giving up disappoint me, especially Republicans!
Instead of demoralizing voters with these fictional polls, I like that the author talked with the people, then put together this essay.
I wouldn’t be so quick to discount Mr. Kaufman’s analysis regarding Pennsylvania. The thing that tips PA in McCain’s favor is John Murtha. Murtha’s behavior regarding the Haditha Marines and his recent comments painting portions of the state as “redneck” and “racist” give people a reason to vote against him, and by a larger extension, it gives people a reason to reconsider Obama. Combine with this Obama’s comments where he painted people in Pennsylvania VERY negatively, and you have yourself a recipe for even people who vote Democrat usually a reason to vote against Obama or stay home. In either case, it helps McCain. I’m with Mr. Kaufman’s analysis and his conclusion for who wins PA next Tuesday.
“Americans over 30, of all political stripes and religious affiliations, are morally conservative. While they may differ on abortion or gay marriage, the vast majority seek to enforce tighter borders, keep their families safe, get honest news, lower their taxes, and rid themselves of programs and policies that they feel are antithetical to how we became the world’s superpower. This is true in Indiana where I live, in my native California, and it sure as heck is true in 99% of Pennsylvania.”
All of that is 100% true. However, McCain will not provide *ANY* of that. Neither will Obama in the end. It’s why I’m voting independent.
The stupidest thing keeps running through my mind when I read these smarmy Leftist retorts that predict Obama will rub conservative’s noses in the dirt. I keep hearing the rerun of the Aliens movie, specifically when Ripley is trying to tell the Marines how bad the Aliens are… and all do is mock her. She says (I’m actually using two quotes from separate scenes):
“I hope you’re right. I really do.” “…because just one of those things managed to kill my entire crew, within twelve hours of hatching.”
I don’t live in fantasy-land and I don’t equate Obama with an alien from space. My point is, the majority refused to take the threat seriously when the evidence was right before them, in the form of Ripley’s recordings. Information was available that they could have studied, but they foolishly chose not to and acted like bad-asses instead. If they hadn’t thrown caution to the wind, they’d have been prepared.
If only ten percent of the people who love Palin are telling the pollsters they will not participate in a poll, as I believe they are, McCain will win Pa. I believe he will win.
Obama loses Penn on his own ego
the guns and religion and joe the plumber events are resonating. People are not ready for an untested, socialist with no accomplishments
the polls are clearly not accurate, just ask presidents Kerry and Gore
Many Hillary dems are highly offended and won’t vote Barrack. People won’t put up Mc/Palin signs if they feel they will be vandalized
Penn is conversative, so is Ohio, Virginia and Florida
McCain takes this
I can’t get over the number of Obama supporters counting all the votes that haven’t even been cast yet. Come on guys, I know you’re busting at the seams to be sore winners, but you look that much more stupid if you’re wrong.
Like Leon Lett, who started his touchdown dance at the 10 yard line, giving a defender a chance to catch up and knock the ball out of his hands.
I think Mr Kaufman should return on next Wednesday and tell us why he was so wrong. Then after the election I think you should all get behind a Palin/Joe the Plumber ticket in 2012
interesting, well-informed and backed up commentary. If you read through the lines, Pa could be either candidate’s state.
This is going to be a close election, much to the Dem’s dismay. Kaufman is a terrific researcher and it is obvious that he spends much time backing up all he writes. well-done.
As someone currently living in a college town and working in a mostly liberal profession, I am surrounded by Obama fanatics. The author makes some excellent points in this analysis and gives me hope (the real kind, not “hope and change” hope!) as far as the outcome of this election. Going by the polls, what I see in the news and what most people around me say everyday, you would think Obama has already won and moved into the White House! I have been disconcerted by the blind obsession too many people seem to have for the democratic candidate… However, I really hope Mr. Kaufman is right and some Americans are still willing to use their brains.
“In 2008, most Pennsylvanians are not concerned with whether “America is ready for a black president,” but rather, whether the next leader will be honest with them and keep our nation prosperous.”
I keep saying this, but no one wants to listen. Obama is NOT BLACK, he is BI-RACIAL at the least and MULTI RACIAL at the most. We don’t really know, since none of us will ever see his birth certificate. According to all my black friends, a bi-racial guy isn’t REALLY black. Interesting, that.
Just a couple of points for Mr. Kaufman: making assumptions about how Pa. will vote based on a trip from Somerset county to Pittsburgh is a very limited view. As one writer pointed out Philly and the suburbs is a large block that needs to counted. Southeast Pa. is now 40% of the total registered voters. Also Greensburg and Latrobe are not small college towns. While Seton Hill and St Vincent are in that corridor, so is Latrobe steel, the former Rolling Rock Brewery, Sony television(soon to downsize) and lots of other small manufacturing centers. My point is that their are alot of blue collar voters in those areas. But Westmoreland county is in transition, from a once large manufacturing county to a bedroom county of Pittsburgh. But these two counties will most certainly go for McCain. Somerset is R registered and R performing, Westmoreland is D registered but in 2004 went for Pres. Bush. However Allegheny County(Pittsburgh) will certainly go for Obama. Had Mr. Kaufman talked to some retired and active steelworkers( for those not from Pa. there is still steel making in Allegheny and southwest Pa) he would have found that many of them are voting for Sen. Obama because of three major reasons: pensions, healthcare and trade(McCain is a free trader). And if Mr. Kaufman had travelled to the other southwest counties, mostly Steel and coal country he would have found a mixed bag of support for both candidates. Sen. McCain’s support of Pres. Bush’s social security privatization hurts him alot with the older voters in these counties and ultimately is what did in Sen. Santorum in2006. My point is that at best Sen. McCain may win this region with 50%, Sen Obama 48% other 2%(both Barr and Nader are on the ballot in Pa.) those numbers are not enough to offset the large numbers Sen. Obama will get in the Southeast, and the Lehigh Valley. He will also win in the democratic counties in the Northeast. And if Southwest Pa. is trending Republican, Republican Central Pa is trending Democratic. Sen Obama won’t win central Pa., but he won’t lose it 2 to 1 as Kerry did. Finally to the voters observation regarding Gov. Rendell, that couldn’t be farther from the truth. The Governor has criss crossed the state for Sen. Obama and has put his formidable operation into the Obama operation. I know Sen. McCain has spent alot of time in Pa. but the economy and the numbers just don’t add up.
The HillBuzz link was great, and reiterates to me what i know of people. It’s a blue State. Heavily Dem. So, they have Obama signs in their yards, because their neighbors, co-workers, et al know who they are and where they live. Gotta put up a good front, but the whisper campaign goes on.
In 2000, when Al Gore demanded a recount in FL, he foolishly didn’t demand the whole State be recounted. He cherry-picked counties, 4 of them. The numbers HAD to be wrong. He was expecting far more votes in these Dem-heavy counties. Turned out, lots and lots of people quietly confided to their friends that they had voted for Bush. Many of these were the older, reliably-Dem, Jewish voters.
Gotta love the privacy of the polling booth!
I dont want to break up a party here but is it at all even possible that what is happening here is a bunch of people convincing themselves of what they want to see rather than whats there.
Like in the run up to a ball game you make excuses for your own team.
Obama will win Penn. by 1-2 points minimum. the polls are accurate but undecideds will break 2-1 for McCain
I am revitalized by your sharp perspectives, and am looking forward to your post-election commentaries regardless who is the victor.
Ari, as usual, a wonderful piece. Thoroughly researched, sourced, and informative. Not being from PA, I can only read what you’ve written and attempt to point out the obvious. I think the democrat party in PA, like numerous other states, is ‘counting their votes’ and coming up short. Gov Rendell, on TV at least where I see him, seems to be uneasy when asked about his surety of an Obama win in PA. And I don’t think that Sen Biden’s claim of ‘growing up poor in Scranton’ is going to cut it either; considering he grew up in the exclusive area of Scranton from what I’ve read. But then again, it appears that most every liberal running for office now claims to come from the ‘poor working class’ of America. Guess we can thank Bill Clinton for that lie getting started.
It will be interesting to sit here in NM on election night and see the map get colored in as the evening progresses. Let’s hope and pray that American voters haven’t been totally fooled by the sham Obama….
Great insight,beautifully written.
To whom it may concern:
CC: President George W. Bush
Senators of the United States
Supreme Court Judges of the United States
CIA, FBI
All military personnel
All others, national, state and local that have sworn an oath to the Constitution of the U.S.A.
I am Joe the window cleaner. Surely a high school graduate like myself is not the only one asking the question:
Is Barak Obama a natural born citizen?
Where is the CIA, the FBI and the President of the United States?
Do you know the answer?
Why will you not tell us the truth?
!!! Would you please tell the rest of us so this question can be settled before the election, please!!!
If he is not, then we are witnessing a great attack against the Constitution of the United States.
If he is not, then we are witnessing one of the greatest frauds since the founding of our great country.
If he is not, then why is he running for the office of the President of the United States?
I believe the President is empowered by the Constitution to see that the laws of this country are “faithfully executed.”
If he is not a natural born citizen, then why would we think he would do anything else written in the Constitution.
A great man once said, “He that is faithful in that which is least, is faithful also in much.”
I am praying for our country.
For your consideration:
Military Oath
“I, _____, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me, according to regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice. So help me God.”
US Constitution
From Article. II. – The Executive Branch
From Section 1 – The President
No person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty-five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.
“I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.”
From Section 3 – State of the Union, Convening Congress
He shall from time to time give to the Congress Information of the State of the Union, and recommend to their Consideration such Measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient; he may, on extraordinary Occasions, convene both Houses, or either of them, and in Case of Disagreement between them, with Respect to the Time of Adjournment, he may adjourn them to such Time as he shall think proper; he shall receive Ambassadors and other public Ministers; he shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed, and shall Commission all the Officers of the United States.
Ecellently written and quite enjoyable. Good analysis as far as it goes–but in theend it is wishful thinking. The elections were decided within the first 15 minutes of te first debate when obama showed he was not some ignorant “boy” and was able to measure upt word by word,s entence bys entence, to McCain (The latter being a pretty awful communicator to begin with). It is done–McCain will barely hold onto aa dozen states and with the exception of Texas none of these states have more people than guns or cows
Today a California poll showed Obama winning by an astonishing 22% in the golden state–twenty two percent. Why? Minorities and the young and those two factors will carry Obama to a huge electoral and double digit poopular vote victory on Tuesday.
McCain was a good canddiate on the merits–smart and bip[artsan–but the economy always winss out and McCain should have earlier brought up Jeremiah Wright all day and all night.
Excellently written and quite enjoyable. Good analysis as far as it goes–but in the end it is wishful thinking. The elections were decided within the first 15 minutes of the first debate when Obama showed he was not some dangerous radical and was able to measure up word by word, sentence by s ntence, to McCain (The latter being a pretty awful communicator to begin with). It is done–-McCain will barely hold onto a dozen states and with the exception of Texas none of these states have more people than guns or cows
Today a California poll showed Obama winning by an astonishing 22% in the golden state–twenty two percent. Why? Minorities and the young and those two factors will carry Obama to a huge electoral and double digit popular vote victory on Tuesday.
McCain was a good canddiate on the merits–smart and bipartisan–but the economy always winss out and McCain should have earlier brought up Jeremiah Wright all day and all night.
This is why Obama will lose: because he can’t be trusted to tell the truth.
Take, for example, tax breaks.
If you earn less than $250,000 you get the break? Or is it, as he said last night in his commercial, now $200,000? Or is it, as Biden has said, now $150,000?
Or is the truth that, when the tax cuts expire in 2010, EVERYONES taxes go up??
Obama is a cold, calculating, psychopathic liar.
Interesting points, I sure hope you are correct. I am not sure at this point in the game if the number of votes for McCain will be able to overcome the number of votes from ACORN. I sure hope America makes the right decision… or at least not the left.
Mike G, et all.. re Philly.
Guys, those that think Philly will carry the state for Fauxbama are ill informed. Not suprising considering the MSM and National pundents are absolutely clueless about PA internal politics.
Here’s the realities folks, Kerry took the Philly and surrounding suburbs by about a 550k margin, he also took Allegheny (Pittsburgh) county by I believe about a 50k margin. That’s a 600k vote margin just in those 2 areas, but the vote total at the end of the day was Kerry by 140kish votes.
Now, I have no dillusions that Fauxbama will win the Philly region and Pittsburgh, but he won’t win them by the margins that Kerry did, and he won’t get the support across the rest of the state that Kerry did.
Put simply, Fauxbama will not win PA, and never could. The numbers were never there for him and never will be. I’ve been here for 5 presidential elections and I’m telling you that you have to go back to Dukakis to find a D who’s had less support on the ground in PA.
Gore won the 2000 election here by 205k votes… Hillary spanked Fauxbama here in the PRIMARIES by more votes, about 215k votes. That’s right Hillary beat Fauxbama by more votes in the primary by 10,000 more votes that Gore won the state by in the General election and by 75,000 more votes than Kerry carried the state by.
Both Gore and Kerry managed their wins with the entire democratic base behind them and the state machine firing on all cylinders for them. Fauxbama has Neither of these, the hillary voters are not falling in behind him, many are going to stay home and many are going to vote McCain. Rendell has the state machine doing nothing but token efforts for Fauxbama, he’s a Hillary guy and will do and has done nothing but enough token support for show that he can get away with.
McCain is taking PA folks, its not even going to be that close at the end of the day. Fauxbama has huge problems here, and those problems are not just here, but in other rust belt states as well. McCain’s not only going to take PA, but with the momentum he’s got building at the end of this he’s going to very likely take it by a larger margin than Gore did in 2000, and the problems that Fauxbama has in PA spread across the rust belt. I believe that McCain will take at least 1 more rust belt state that went for Kerry in 04.
If you listen to the national pundents and polls you are grossly ignorant of what’s going on on the ground in PA. Kerry took Philly by 4 to 1… Fauxbama will carry Philly, but it won’t be by 4 to 1, it will be 3 to 3.5 to 1, and that weaker support will be across the state, and that’s basically a L for Fauxbama in PA.
McCain’s taking PA, there is no doubt about it.
BigMy,
YOu need to pass on over whatever it is you are smoking if you believe that fauxbama has or had any chance of winning the national election by double digits, because that’s some really good stuff.
Fauxbama has ZIP chance of winning any national election by double digits, stop regurgitating MSM talking points and think, I know its hard to do when being bombarded by Goebellesque propoganda telling you otherwise, but think.
There have been 3 national elections in the last 30 years that have been decided by that sort of margin. Clinton Reelection of 1996, you truly aren’t daring to claim Fauxbama has the support that Clinton had are you? That’s laughable on its face. Reagan re-election, no way in hell you can honestly believe Fauxbama has the support that Reagan did in 84.. and Reagan beating Carter in 1980. Now for the double digit win you claim to be coming, that means Fauxbama has to have support levels that approach Reagan and McCain have support levels as low as Carter in 1980… and that’s not remotely believable.
Now as to your believe that Minorities and Youth will somehow create a mathematical advantage of 10 points for Fauxbama… Well, that’s just propoganda and hogwash as well. The supposed youth vote has already been debunked, those 1.4 New registrations that would carry the day for Fauxbama and be his ace in the hole? Well turned out actual new registrations were less than 450k, the rest were change of addresses or thrown out for being bogus… and guess what? That’s not a registration number above and beyond any other election and in a nation of 300 Million people basically are the new voters coming online, replacing olders ones who have died.
As to minorities, are you kidding me? Blacks always vote 90%+ Democratic, this election they might go 94 or 95%, an improvement to be sure, but you are talking about a group that is only 11% of the electorate, a 5% gain in 11% of the electorate is .55% actual gain, and that’s not going to do much of anything in the grand scheme.
Here’s the reality, Fauxbama in a perfect storm, with the wind at his back and everything breaking for him, was at his best a squeeker candidate. The maximum support he can possibly get in a national election is about 47% of the vote, that’s it, and thats with everything breaking his way. Now the press and the DNC et al has been busy trying to turn him into landslide candidate, and he isn’t one, and never was one. They have pulled out every play in the book in an attempt to cause this to happen, its failed.
Fauxbama isn’t winning this thing, let alone winning it by 10+ points, if you believe that you honestly failed some serious critical and analytical thinking.
George Clinton,
Last county level polling I saw showed Fauxbama underperforming Kerry by rougly 4% throughout the state, Yes that included Philly.
I see no math that adds up to a Fauxbama win of PA, his support is the weakest on the ground since Dukakis.
Like the majority of Pennsylvanians, I am gonna do the right thing: vote for OBAMA on November 4th. Thank you.
I appeal to all voters for the truth. The Democrats are sexist and flat out mean. They destroyed Hillary a woman. Then they try to destroy Palin. The left wing lesbians and gays want to destroy any normal woman so they can promote their agenda. They want to destroy marriage and Christian beliefs. Before communists can take over they have to destroy morals and family then religion. Obama and the democrats are anti American communists. Look at cuba and third world countries this is what Obama offers
great job here — one could say, as many have, that Obama is a Manchurian Candidate; but i believe that is a falsity; Manch. Cand. implies a stealth candidate — any rational person understands that Obama is right out there with his socialist plans…he is anything but stealthy
OTOH, it is the media that is the stealthy organism here — it has lost completely the little credibility it still had
HamiltonJay–
I don’t know what part of PA you live in but I am here to tell you that you are flat out wrong on the “Kerry will outperform Obama in Philly” argument. Huge swaths of minority communities stayed home in that election, not energized by Kerry. Voter registration numbers for the City have skyrocketted (and Dems now outnumber Republicans by 1.2 million statewide). I would bet my new Phillies championship that Obama will stongly outperform Obama in Philly and the ring suburbs. And I can tell you I don’t know any Hillary supporters (and I know a lot of them) that are not backing Obama. Most have yard signs. I think the story of the disaffected Hillary voter flocking to McCain is as much of a media myth as the polling data we’re all being fed so regularly.
As always, I come by 36 hours or so later to explain some things.
A few noted that I physically focused on western and southwestern PA. This is true, but unlike the elite media, I went on my own dime, actually combining this with a trip for my wife’s birthday; so that was where I went considering I have a full time job in Indianapolis I had to be at first thing Monday morning.
That said, I did contact both parties for quotes, spoke to folks from various towns, observed, cited/linked historical and current trends, etc. Is this normally done by freelancers or even the big salary liars in the NY Times? And where I went really was NOT rural but within the Pittsburgh area and Uniontown. These, as commenters have noted, are very Democratic areas in fact. Well over half the “local” comments believe that PA could or will be an “upset” and domino throughout the nation, for the record.
To Mandy, who questioned how I could call the PA primary a blowout — uh, BHO was favored in PA, or at the very worst it was a toss up. So yes, a NINE point win and 200,000+ votes is a blowout, especially after 50 days of campaigning. I have no idea what else to call it. Thanks for ignoring the entire article and focusing on the first lines, ma’am.
As a commenter from PA noted, Mandy:
“Gore won the 2000 election here by 205k vote. Hillary spanked Fauxbama (sic) here in the PRIMARIES by more votes, about 215k votes. That’s right, Hillary beat Fauxbama by more votes in the primary by 10,000 more votes that Gore won the state by in the General election and by 75,000 more votes than Kerry carried the state by.”
To the poll citers, no one with a semblance of intelligence takes polls seriously. They are meaningless, often incorrect, so as you can see, they dont apply. The national “pundits” are grossly ignorant of what’s going on on the ground in PA.
A good link, among many, that someone provided is here:
http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/28/breaking-heres-what-we-know-about-pennsylvania-right-now/
In terms of “fessing up” if Obama wins, I made no prediction, just showed how and why McCain COULD win.
And to the guy whose comment was to cite Rick Moran’s piece from today (Thursday) I’d cite Jennifer Rubin’s from Wednesday. Some of us know the votes are not counted until Nov. 4 and prefer confidence to pessimism. Conservatives play right into the Democrats’ hand by assuming defeat. Let the people, not the media, have the final say, okay?
Take care, all. Vote early and…
Mccain is the one who was in the Commies hands
(the real manchurian candidate)
hes the STEALTH candidate!
Destroyed Hillary?
so how is she able to campaign for Obama? she should be in a rest home – destroyed!
Hamiltonjay
I’m curious about what county level polling you’re talking about, most statewide polls poll by region and even then the numbers are small and margin of error high. And please if you’re going to throw numbers around please get them right. Kerry’s total in Philly was 542,000 his margin was 412,000 certainly larger than Gore’s 370,000. But with a higher turnout that could reach 68% Obama’s margin will probably be about 480,000 and to Ari – just as you misidentified Greensburg and Latrobe as college towns you are mistaken about Uniontown. While Fayette county is heavily Democratic, the county seat of Uniontown had a Republican mayor not to long ago.Kerry carried the county by 4000 votes but Uniontown by only 400 It’s not until you get over to the Youghiogheny and Monongahela Rivers and the steel mills and then south to the coal mines that the county becomes solidly Democratic. Uniontown and east towards Somerset is very agricultural and trends more Republican. If your going to write about a state please try and understand the demographics and geography a little better. And to your assertion that Sen. Obama was favored in Pa, that’s just wrong, Sen. Clinton was favored here from the beginning and stayed the favorite. I don’t remember a poll that showed him ahead. I enjoy a spirited debate and forecasts but let’s draw our conclusions from real numbers.
Hamiltonjay just reread your comments and I missed the point about the margin from the Philly and the Burbs was 550 not just Philly alone which is accurate within 10,000 votes it was closer to 560k and Allegheny was 90k not 50. And with a 480,000 margin out of Philly and an additional margin of 110,000 out of the suburbs plus wins in Allegheny(40 or 50K) Lehigh Valley and Scranton Wilkes-Barre and maybe the first Democrat to ever win Chester County there is very little chance for a McCain win
GC,
Micropolling I’ve seen published Show Fauxbama underperforming Kerry across the state by an average of 4%. The same poll had McCain underpolling Bush by larger numbers, which I just don’t see to be credible.
Fauxbama isn’t taking PA, its never been possible. He doesn’t have Kerry level support, and Kerry BARELY squeaked by. I have never seen an election where I have met so many democrats who are crossing party lines and being open about it publicly. Signage for Fauxbama is non existent outside of the black and UMC liberal neighborhoods in Pittsburgh. Hell its less than 5 days to the election and there isn’t a single Fauxbama sign anywhere near the Ft Pitt Tunnels inbound or outbound.
I am not dillusional, Fauxbama will win Philly and Allegheny county, but he won’t have remotely the margins that Kerry did. He won’t win. Fauxbama was in Pittsburgh last week, right at the mellon arena, a supposed bastion of blue, where hundreds of thousands of folks nearly have to stay late after work to go to his event and he got 20k to 25k to show up. Palin had over 10k show up at a high school football stadium somewhere out in beaver.
The support for Fauxbama isn’t there, Hillary spanked him in the primaries by more votes than Gore won the state. And many of those folks aren’t going to be voting for him on 11/4. Democrats barely have held PA when the party has been fully united and the machine has been working full blast. Fauxbama has neither of these, PA’s going McCain, and with the momentum he’s got going right now, he’s looking like he’s going to take PA by a larger margin than Gore did.
Mike G,
Not sure where you are getting your numbers from
11/4 registration 3,985,486D 3,405,278R
5/8 registration 4,200,109D 3,186,057R
So yes, there are 1 Million more D’s than R’s registered, but that’s not the whole story by a long shot. D registrations are up 215k since 04, and R’s are down 224k since 04. There is much more to those numbers than simply the 1 Million margin.
Other/non affiliated 08: 1,169,000
Other/on affiliated 04: 975,000
04 total registration: 8.366M
08 total registration: 8.328M
So where do you think those 224k R’s went from 04? You think they suddenly became hard core dems? Or maybe they are some of that 194k more indies, with some rolled into the soft side of the Dem? They didn’t run away in large margins, they are still out there.
McCain’s taking PA, I have no doubt about it. Fauxbama will do well in Philly region, but the margin won’t be as big as Kerry’s, and he’ll carry Pittsburgh but not nearly by the numbers Kerry did, and in between he’ll underperform Kerry as well. Fauxbama is not taking PA, the numbers aren’t there for him and never were.
To all those despondent over so many bogus polls, recall the New Hampshire Primary. The day before the voting, RCP’s average was an Obama lead over Hillary by 8.3%. Rasmussen had Obama up by 7, CNN by 9, and Zogby (who predicted in 2004 that Kerry would capture 311 electoral votes)had Obama up by an incredible 42-29 spread.
And, lo and behold, Hillary still won.
To use a football analogy, the Republicans control their own destiny. Think about it, a nation that is basically Center-Right does not suddenly shift to the radical Left.
Not unless (to paraphrase Burke)enough good people sit back and do nothing.
So to all good people who value freedom, go to http://www.JohnMcCain.com and volunteer to call battleground states. Undecideds WILL go for McCain–if they bother to vote. Let’s give them a call.
MORONS
the polls in NH included INDys that could vote in either primary!
Another well articulated and entertaining piece by Mr. Kaufman. For those in the comments who disagree with Kaufman, be careful not to confuse your own personal beliefs with the reliability of fact. Kaufman bases his opinions and arguments on fact and consequently, his analysis holds more weight. While it may not turn out the way Kaufman would like, one cannot dismiss the facts Kaufman has laid before us.
It’s a shame that articles like this–articles, which show respect to the field of journalism by presenting actual facts and are simultaneously entertaining/well written–are so few and far between…
Andrew – Good point!
HJ – there are 8.7 million voters registered as of 10/31/08 and in the last 2 weeks of registration there were 75,000 new d’s to 28,000 new r’s. It seems to reason that people’s registration preference would reflect their vote preference. Just a couple of observations since you keep comparing Obama to Kerry, in 2004 at the Pittsburgh Kerry rally the weekend before the election at about 8pm on the southside Kerry had about 6500 people so if Obama had 20k to 25k that’s a pretty good indicator of the enthusiasm and at the Palin rally according to the right wing Beaver Times Palin had about 5k, pretty good for an R in a 2 to 1 Dem. county. Finally one anecdotal story. I was in Dickson City(near Scranton) at the Super K-Mart and saw 2 older white women(one of Obama’s problem groups according to polls) wearing Obama buttons. But here’s a challenge since you seem to be a numbers guy like myself I’m going to put my best guess here vote percentage and turnout, I’d like to see the same from you. Election night Obama 50% McCain 47% Nader 1% Barr 2% with a turnout of 70% Obama’s total about 3.1 million votes.
Hamilton Jay,
I’d love to believe you, buddy, but it’s not what I’m seeing and hearing. I can’t find one single, solitary poll in PA that shows McCain even within four points of BHO. Some even show him behind by double digits!
And if it was just about the polls, I might be skeptical. But it’s not. My best friend from college lives outside of New Hope. He said it’s over if what he’s seeing is true. He’s seeing way more BHO signs than Bush and Kerry signs combined from four years back.
And my old girlfriend, who is from small town western PA—with a solid Republican family that isn’t above making occasional “N-Word” jokes—said she’s now voting for BHO (I screamed at her on the phone) and that her mother and sister are too! (Her dad and brother, who love to hunt, are sticking with McCain but even they admit that they don’t like him that much.) She also said that lots of people who voted for Hillary and swore they’d never vote for BHO are now changing their mind because they’re scared about McCain possibly going after their SS and medicare.
So, these are just anecdotes, but these people are ones who would normally be 100% for ANY Republican. I wish McCain wouldn’t be putting so much emphasis on PA. It’s not a good return on investment. He should have been concentrating completely on just holding Bush’s states from 2004. PA is way too much of a long shot. Michigan might have been even better.
Trust me, I’m on the ground here, what you are hearing in the national media and by pundents is completely incorrect. Not only is McCain taking PA, but the problems he has here are problems he’s having across the rust belt. McCain is taking PA, and at least 1 more rust belt state tommorrow.
PA is not only going McCain, but McCain will be taking the state by a larger margin than Kerry or Gore did.
GC
Trust me, 20-25k in downtown pittsburgh at the civic ARENA in this “superstar” campaign is not a good showing. The numbers were not 5,000 for Palin, double it and you have reality. Southside is a trolly ride, or 15 min walk, Arena is 5 minutes from town. You are comparing apples and oranges.
Here are the numbers, Hillary got 1.2 Million votes, Fauxbama will not get about 30% of those votes, or about 360,000 votes. That doesn’t even get into the dems who didn’t vote in the primary but will cross the isle for mcCain. The suburban philly counties are break even, last time Kerry had them by 100k. Even if Fauxbama gets another 100,000 votes out of Philly that Kerry managed, he still loses, hes only countered the suburbs hes lost.
Fauxbamas support in PA is not nearly what Kerry’s was, and kerry barely held on. Fauxbama will not only lose PA, he’s going to lose it by more than Kerry or Gore won it. Not only this, but the problems that Fauxbama has in PA are not unique to PA, he’s got the same problem in the other rust belt states, and will lose at least 1 more of them that Kerry had.
HJ – No numbers prediction?
for those that were following and commenting on the discussion but may not be from Pa. here are the final numbers: I predicted that Obama(see earlier post) would win with 3.1 million with a 70% turnout. Obama got closer to 3.2 million with a 67% turnout. Mc Cain ended up with 2.6 million. And the polls were right it was a 10 point margin not something I predicted. The difference here was the size of the victories coming out of Philly and the suburbs. HJ thought that Kerry would outperform Obama. Kerry won Philly by 414,000, Obama won by 468,000. His margin in the burbs was not Kerry’s 100,000 but over 150,000 and as I predicted Obama was the first D to win Chester county. In Allegheny Kerry won by about 50,000 Obama won by 98,000. And he didn’t get clobbered in the conservative R and D counties. One of the counties Ari visited was Fayette (Uniontown) where he thought the D’s would overwhelmingly vote for McCain, in fact McCain only won Fayette by 160 votes. Usually to counter the D areas the R has to win big in places like Lancaster County. Pres. Bush won Lancaster 66% to 34% but McCain only won 55% to 44%. With those kind of problems for McCain and the ground operation Obama had there was no way McCain could win.