Maxed Out America: Coming Sooner Than You Think
Washington’s recent budget deal represents at best a tiny baby step in the right direction. What is at stake in the budget battles to come is exponentially higher. This is why the “Maxed Out America” initiative of the PJ Institute demands the immediate attention of the political class and the American people.
Everyone knows that an individual or family can only afford to go so far into debt before they become “maxed out.” At that point, lenders charge higher interest rates, refuse to extend additional credit, and cut existing credit lines.
The idea that there are limits on borrowing applies equally to the federal government, but its determination and ability to avoid grim reality have been much greater. For decades, Beltway politicians, with recent assistance from the Federal Reserve, have used tools not available to individuals and families to push off the government’s reckoning date. As of April 14, they have run up the nation’s “debt held by the public” — really amounts owed to individuals, corporations, and other countries — to over $9.6 trillion, an amount that is roughly 65% of the nation’s annual output, or Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
How far can a government run up its debts before lenders either decide to stop lending or raise their interest rates? As PJ Institute economist Laurence Kotlikoff noted in an early April column, there is a consensus that a country reaches “a critical insolvency threshold” once its public debt hits 90% of GDP. At that point, lender cutoffs and interest-rate premiums become real possibilities. Call it the point where we become “Maxed Out America.”
How far are we from the 90% Maxed Out America threshold? Not far at all.
Kotlikoff notes that the “alternative fiscal scenario” released by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in June 2010 “had us going critical … in 2021.”
Since then, a lot has happened. Unfortunately, almost all of it has brought Maxed Out America closer:
– In December, Congress and the president agreed to keep the current income tax system in place through the end of 2012, and to cut individual Social Security taxes by two percentage points during 2011. Kotlikoff calculates that these actions alone moved us two years closer to Maxed Out America.
– Kotlikoff further notes that CBO’s March 18 forecast which incorporated the president’s budget assumed that income tax rates will remain essentially unchanged for the next ten years. That moved Maxed Out America to late 2017, a scant 6-1/2 years from now.
– Since the recession began, CBO’s estimates of federal tax collections have been consistently overoptimistic. For example, it originally thought that fiscal 2010 collections would come in at $2.268 trillion. Actual collections were over $100 billion lower. CBO estimates that collections will grow by 14% in fiscal 2012 and 2013, and by another 11% in fiscal 2014, reaching over $3.2 trillion. With the economic recovery remaining sluggish at best, there’s reason to doubt that these increases will materialize.
– Further complicating matters, lackluster employment growth since the recession ended in June 2009 has been dominated by temporary employees. Temp services have added 508,000 workers in the seven quarters since the recession ended, while the rest of the economy has lost — that’s right, lost — 263,000 jobs. Temps are usually paid less than full-time employees, and therefore generate less in payroll and income tax collections for Uncle Sam. If this trend continues, actual collections will lag CBO’s estimates even further.
If we’re lucky, the positive results of the recent 2011 budget deal might offset the negative effect of the last two factors just cited, and we still have 6-1/2 years until Maxed Out America arrives.
At least one influential entity is concerned that we may have nowhere near that much time. Last Monday, ratings agency Standard and Poor’s cut its long-term outlook on U.S. sovereign debt for the first time from “stable” to “negative.” The firm believes that there is a one-third chance that it will have to issue an actual downgrade of our debt in the next two years. If ratings agencies and lenders determine that we are not serious about addressing our problems, they may begin to raise rates or reduce their exposure even before we hit the Maxed Out level.
The real problem, of course, is spending, which, even after the budget deal, will have grown by over $1 trillion in four years, or about 40%, by the end of fiscal 2011. Maxed Out America cannot be avoided at currently projected spending levels.
The PJ Institute’s Maxed Out America Special Report has a stern warning about the consequences of doing nothing: “Our sixteen year old kids, entering the tenth grade of high school in the fall, may face this economic impact when they graduate from college in 2017, if not sooner.” Are we as a nation willing to accept that possibility?
Given the oncoming calamity, Washington’s lack of serious urgency is scandalous. The Maxed Out America initiative intends to change that. Readers should ensure that their congressperson and senators understand that they, and we, are quickly running out of time.
In 1971 President Nixon terminated the Bretton Woods agreement and by doing so placed the USA on a collision course with world markets and governments. Nixon replaced Bretton Woods with the petro dollar system, which allowed the Government to spend wildly beyond its means with deferred accountability. The next 2-3 years is accountability coming back to bite the US government ( taxpayer) in the rear.
The Euro was a response to Nixon’s actions, as well as many current global trade agreements removing the US dollar as currency of settlement. This may not mean much today, but in 2-3 years, the US Dollar will face collapse as nation after nation drop it in favor of the Chinese Dollar, the Euro and British Pound. There will probably be a basket of currencies that will replace the US Dollar, and when that day occurs the US economy will also collapse. This is about 24-36 months away.
The Petro Dollar system allowed the US government to spend at will since 1971, and why the US dollar has dropped 90% in Value since 1971. The US dollar is a Fiat Currency, backed by nothing other than the trust and faith of the US Taxpayer. This was great until time comes to pay the bill, which is the next several years.
While the US continues the pretend game, China, Britain, Russia, Japan, Germany and other nations are busy backing their currencies with Gold, Silver, Copper, Nickel, and other hard assets that will protect and maintain value of their National savings and investments. It is also Why most nations are buying Resources, during global depressions the only asset that maintains value are natural resources.
Like Most articles on this website, this is well written, articulate, but does not address the core cause of problem it has defined.
The replacement of the US Dollar by another currency (or group of currencies) would indeed be disastrous for the US economy. There has been talk about this for some time. The Chinese Yuan would be the main contender.
However, I just read this…..
It would be decades before the Chinese Yuan replaced the U.S. dollar as a global settlement currency for international trade for the following reasons:
1.The Chinese government limits Yuan availability
2.China’s bond market, which central banks and international companies would access to borrow Yuan for payment transactions, is too small to facilitate global trade, compared to the U.S. $5.7 trillion bond market
3.The Chinese banking system is not yet sophisticated enough to effectively manage the fund stream of a bond market of a depth, breadth and scale required for international trade
4.The Chinese markets are, on the whole, closed to outside investors
5.The flow of imports into China is restricted. Open markets are of paramount importance to international currency acceptance.
(http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/tony-richardson/hong-kong-goodbye-us-dollar-hello-chinese-yuan)
I always thought it was funny that, during the 2008 campaign, Obama said to McCain that “You need to cut the budget with a scalpel and not with an axe,” like, it seems, McCain wanted to do. Little did the public know at that time that Obama wouldn’t attack the budget with a scalpel, but with a butter knife. Remember, just before the current budget battle, the Democrats didn’t want to cut ANYTHING from the budget. They thought the budget was just fine at about $3.5 trillion. It took the threat of a government shutdown to force them to make these paultry budget cuts. Shame on them. For them to put political kickbacks above the fiscal security of this nation is nothing short of criminal and ALL of them should be voted out of office for that. 2012 is coming and we need to make our voices heard once again. Seems more and more we need a guy like Jim DeMint to pull us out of this mess.
It is time to lobby congress to allow the government to exceed the debt ceiling. Thus proving once and for all that we have a rogue regime in charge without the guts to tear up the credit card. Obama is the worst president in history only a bit less pathetic than that gang of leftist radical nut jobs who occupy key seats in the house and senate. These people are laughable and remind you of the Star Wars bar scene if it wasn’t a matter of natioanl security and the third world future that they have left for the children of this once great country. I say let them default. They will not control themselves, they will not listen to the American people, they will not do the right thing–so why should the American people care if THEY cannot borrow any more money! We want them to stop spending, so let the lenders of the world give the USA the default notice and stop lending. If not we only postpone the day to a future date after we have borrowed another $1 trillion.
Sympathetic as I am with your emotions, I don’t think our leftist congressmen (and women) are any worse than in Europe or, say Argentina. They just have a bigger credit card which they fancy is unlimited. Maybe a “strategic” default wouldn’t be such a bad thing over the long haul if it broke this notion….
Thomas Jefferson felt that the most important flaw in the Constitution was Congress’s power to borrow money. I don’t recall that he tried to do anything about it when he became president…but an option exists today that probably hasn’t existed before.
Imagine a Republican president, on national and international TV, musing about whether to repudiate the federal debt. Not that he had decided firmly to do so; just that he was thinking about it. Would anyone be so brave as to lend to the federal government, ever again?
Might be time to send the idea to a few friendly Congressmen!
The markets are going to stop lending anyway.
As I understand it, the CBO gets paid to use the assumptions that Congress tells it to use, and the party in power or the party submitting the proposal does the telling, therefore it is not bi-partisan by any stretch of the imagination. More importantly if its projections were at all valid, then the entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid would be running at last break even or in the black. The most important point is that these failures in forecasting show that man (emphasis on politicians), in his almost infinite arrogance, ignorance and greed for power is incompetent when it comes to forecasting the future. IOW expect the reality to be much worse than the article suggests.
Obama, the first president that people refer to as your president.
Will the next round of anti Americanism be for inaction? Betrayal? Will one pseudo intellectual Marxist bastard undo the free Western world and its leader, the United States of America? Will one street corner hustler that hit the big time be its demise? Get rid of this traitor as soon as possible.
great post
I distinctly remember threats being made by the left in 2008 promising trouble if O’Barry didn’t get into the White House. So now I wonder what will happen if he doesn’t get to fly in pizza chefs for a second term?
I anticipate China will likely call in their debt, demanding payment at once; not unlike what happened in the 80′s to family farmers thrown off the land, sometimes at the end of rifles when the banks took possession.
Oh, well, back to the Next Idol Dancing with the Stars.
Until Americans get hit in the face with their wallets, they will not pay enough attention to make a difference.
The only ones paying attention are the unions, welfare suckers and Obama’s boss. Obama needs to be replaced.
The coming election will be dirty as hell. It will come from the left and the right will DO NOT ONE THING TO DEFEND CONSERVATIVES, which will be par for the course. Probably fraud as we have seen the left trying to do.
Conservatives nominated a halfwit in 08. He didn’t want to win, he didn’t fight back, he did nothing. There is a conspiracy in there somewhere.
Better learn to speak Mandarin, it’s coming. Then there will be no affirmative action crap, they’re too smart for that, and the Black Panthers better turn into the oriental panthers, toe the party line or die.
.We are being played.
I’m pretty sure China has its own, really really big, problems. That closed society can present a brave face but it’s not all roses and tea parties.
And I still don’t see any nation that actually has its currency backed with anything but empty promises.
That’s not to say our dollar isn’t heading for oblivion: we owe too much and are printing too many worthless paper dollars.
Just to give a concrete example, a bag of pre-1965 silver coins with a face value of $1000 will cost you $31,000.
Our “money” has inflated 31 times since 1965. Not good.
The current federal government cannot address this problem;
Reducing the force of impact when the US hits the debt wall
will have to be done by the states, the business community,
and individual citizens, overcoming the efforts of the Feds
to divert every last dollar to prolonging the status quo.
You don’t have 6 years, the United States has 12-24 months max. Once the losses due to the PIIGS defaulting on their debts arrive home, the global appetite for throwing money at crack addled spendthrifts will end.
When that happens Congress will be put on notice – end the spending or suffer currency collapse, hyperinflation and the end of the United States as a first world country.
The American people are just not ready to give up their entitlements, tax exemptions and goodies. Just look at the polls that say people don’t want these things cut. Politicians will do what the voters want.
this is part of the smoke screen
these programs will not be cut in the sense that the people receiving benefits will get nothing
the “cuts” amount to weaning the programs off the federal teat and eventually land them in privatized control
the beauty of p ryan’s budget is the good faith in which it was created
it is able to balance the budget whilst keeping these statist behemoths in check
i’m sure p ryan could come up with a much more aggressive budget if the country finally wished (via elections) to reduce the federal government to its constitutionally allotted parameters
polls are the chalk board of propagandists.
They can get any result they want by manipulating four factors: who they poll, how they word the questions, the way the questions are ordered, and when they poll (many conservatives aren’t home to answer the phone on sunday). And in some cases, the pollsters have been shown to just make up the results.
Don’t believe any polls except Rasmussen or Gallup, and be cautious about Gallup.
Random Blowhard could well be right on the bond vigilantes.
Contagion risks from EuroLand sovereign bond markets (watch Spain) could well wash a-shore here stateside in the next 2 years. Inflation risks continue to rise as well.
We keep hearing about how the bond market would be so dismayed by not raising the debt limit. But if I was an investor in US bonds, I would be even more dismayed if the debt limit was raised without a real plan in place to reduce the debt. There are really 2 choices:
1. A deadlock results in the debt limit not being raised in time. Temporary default on US bond interest payments. Ultimately, an agreement, including substantial cuts, is reached, ending the default. Congress authorizes back payment on missed interest payments.
2. The dems once again push for zero cuts, hoping repubs would be blamed for any debt limit default, and hoping the bond community will push them to agree to raise the debt limit. Repubs cave, and raise debt limit without substantial cuts. A few years from now, the US bond market crashes.
Obama constantly reminds us how bad alternative 1 would be, but never talks about alternative 2. If I was a bond investor, I would fear alternative 2, resulting in complete default and total loss of my bonds value, much more than alternative 1, temp loss of interest payments, but then a long term deal to assure the bonds long term value.
Just because Congress can’t pass a budget or raise the debt ceiling is the sky going to fall. The government will still be collecting revenues and with those revenues continue to pay the bond holders. What the government won’t be able to do is spend above the revenue it collects. We should be so fortunate the congress gets deadlocked and does not pass a debt ceiling resolution.
The real threat of the maxed out scenario is when foreigners refuse to accept dollars for payment. Argentina could,did and does screw around with its currency and bond holders. Truly stupid on their part and rather damaging to it’s economy but Argentina runs a trade surplus which enables it to pay for it’s imports with foreign exchange it earned from exports. What is the US going to do when foreigners won’t accept dollars and we don’t earn enough Yen, Euros etc to purchase our imports? Become a North Korea, trying to be completely self reliant? Doesn’t appear to be a successful role model to emulate.The price of oil has gone dramatically in USD terms but not all that much if you pay for oil with Swiss Franks. The democrats are going to destroy the economy with debt, debased currency and statutory and regulatory policies that will choke off any real upswing in manufacturing and energy production forcing us to import even more while exporting even less and trying to finance it all with a worthless currency. This cannot work and will end badly.
We’re already at the dangerous 90% level. Remember that in most countries, all the debt is held at the national level, but in the United States we also have significant state and federal debt. According to the Wall Street Journal, state and local governments had debt of 22% of GDP in 2010 (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704269204575270802154485456.html). Add that to the federal debt, and the US is already in the danger zone.
the marxists will do everything they can to push us over the edge before november, 2012. The close it is to that point, the more desperate they will become.
The truths about the Fed and fractional lending and fiat currency are slowing seeping into the right’s collective consciousness. This is a very good thing and something that should have been a HUGE issue ever since that jackass Wilson sent us down the path of ultimate progressive doom.
This thing ends in disaster; it has to. It’s a wholly, artificially leveraged economy. It is the leaning tower of monetary Jenga.
Now, with the realization that we’re seriously screwed finally planted and producing, let’s start using real numbers. The federal debt is NOT 14 trillion. The entirety of all federal debt and obligation is well north of a hundred trillion dollars when you add in national health and prescriptions. To this you can add another comparable amount held at the State level.
We owe a quarter quadrillion and NOT fourteen trillion, and no, renewed denial won’t make it go away.
This is what happens when you loot the country and establish an insolvent welfare state for ninety years. This is leveraged out over sheer hard monetary vacuum.
A quarter quadrillion dollars. This is the new number to use because this has been the old growing number of record.
I get your point, but your math is wildly off.
Future dollars are not equivalent to current dollars, and most of the quadrillion in debt (or whatever) is to be paid in the future.
If you want to go for maximimum impact, why don’t you throw in all future taxes, including propertty taxes. You could get the number up to a google if you want to.
As you know, people with salaries of 75,000 are able to pay off mortgages of 200,000 to 300,000. It’s a chore, but it’s doable. After 20 years, for many, it isn’t even much of a burden.
Paul Ryan has shown that the debt problems of the US are not insurmountable…or rather, they aren’t insurmountable for rational adults who are familiar with the principles of finance. For a country of marxist-brainwashed dependency addicts, maybe they are insurmountable.
I take it you work for government.
Put another way, pick a number; say, a hundred years. Two hundred. By judicious budgeting, we’ll become whole at the last minute of the last day of the last month of that last year.
You call it. Go ahead.
Now do two things: First, balance budget today and inact a surplus. You’re going to need it. Second, divide two hundred fifty trillion dollars by that number of years and institute a payment plan to pay it down.
It’s not my math that’s wildly off, government accountant. It’s yours.
The Drudge Report today highlights a Chinese news outlet article in which Chinese leaders are considering reducing their $3.04 trillion US Bonds by 2/3. Who will buy them? Japan is in dire fiscal straights, and the EU is bailing out its own profligate members. If you look at real dollars and not fantasy, check the US Treasury, not the CBO. Per the US Treas website, March total revenue did not cover the expenditures for Medicaid, Medicare, SS and the debt interest for March. (The 3 entitlements aren’t all entitlements, but those 3 ate up 93.5% of revenue). We are living on borrowed time.
Tom…(and everyone, including proreason to whom I am going to apologize in advance for this post)
It is much worse than what you have put forth here. Much, much worse.
We cannot have a jobless recovery, with lingering hyper-inflation threats and a real estate tsunami waiting in the wings…and think that income taxation of the “rich” is going to “solve” the “problem”.
And, unfortunately…that is the ONLY thing on the plate of the Marxists in power. Everything else is window dressing.
People have been hypnotized into believing that the real estate issue is “settling down”…no more so than a wild hippo put under a blanket. When it wakes up, you don’t want to be anywhere near the raging beast.
Do people know how many jobs per month we would have to generate, for how many months in a row…before we get back to break even? Any idea? Let me put it to everyone this way, if we created 200,000 new jobs every month from this May 1 to next May 1….we wouldn’t break even. We would lose ground, based upon the most reliable forecasts.
The commercial real estate tsunami would bust loose from behind the crumbling dam it is hidden behind and the residential catastrophe would then worsen yet again.
No matter how hard the Marxists try to soak “the rich”….THAT definition will have to fall further and further and further down the economic ladder until it hits just about everyone currently on the PAY side of the tax window, rather than on the COLLECT side.
And the Marxists will call it a “compromise” to not soak everyone and bleed them dry. Kind of like stealing your bank account, your jewelry, your car…and then compromising on how much of your stuff they are willing to let you keep that they haven’t stolen. That sort of compromise.
The house is on fire and Obama wants to use it to light a cigarette, figuring he could use the rest from all this “attention” and the fire will put itself out eventually. He’s right of course.
The only question remains, how many corpsemen will we be counting when it’s done.
Now, I don’t have an issue with this post.
You didn’t say it’s a hopeless situation, which it isn’t.
One thing I say a lot is that if we get rid of the marxists, all of the other problems become manageable. Actually, I’m the only wingnut willing to say all of the other problems are easy to solve…as long as the marxists have been deposed. Even the debt, which, as Paul Ryan has demonstrated, can be managed down with a very reasonable approach. Rand Paul would be more agressive and retire the debt even quicker.
On domestic issues, my approach would be:
1. immediately (i.e. Jan 20, 2013) return to the the FY 2008 spending budget. Allow drilling. Stop all post 1980 EPA regulatios. stop UN funding.
2. repeal Obamacare.
3. with 6 months notice, cut medicaid by 50%.
4. at the same time, implement Ryan’s medicare approach or something similar.
5. dismantle the most useless and dangerous agencies: commerce, HEW, and Energy; cut other agencies by x%; cut Defense if necessary
6. fix SS with a stopgap like lifting the minimum age to 63 instead of 62.
7. pass a balanced budget amendment.
8. permanently fix SS by gradually converting it to defined inputs rather than defined benefits.
9. at some point, when it is clear that the economy is rebounding, cut taxes, primarilly for “the rich” so capital investment will increase
401K’s will quadruple in 4 years. Housing will rebound in a few months. The dollar will soar.
Not hard.
And foreign affairs aren’t hard either.
1. Stop apologizing.
2. Inform Iran that they will cease their nuclear programs or the rulers will be deposed.
3. Inform terrorist sponsoring countries that they will cease supporting terrorism or the rulers will be deposed.
4. Inform Europe, South Korea, Japan and the Middle East that they will gradually have to begin paying for our global peace-keeping activities. That should bring in about a trillion or so per year.
I don’t think we even need to do anything to China, but if that is the consensus, it shouldn’t be hard to negotiate a reasonable trade agreement that isn’t 99.9% on their side and .01% on our side.
I’ll say again, the ONLY reason these common sense approaches are difficult is because we let the Marxists control the media and the message. Once they are deposed, all of this is simple.
An inferior health care plan that no one wants and CANNOT afford to pay. The threat to jail and/or fine those who don’t purchase the government enforced plan.
Massive spending as if there is no tomorrow. Fighting wars we have no money for. Massive borrowing.
The Massive giving away of Billions of dollars every year to other countries, including the oil-wealthy Middle East, Hamas-controlled Gaza and the Palestinian Authority organization who fill their war chests, build mansions and laugh all the way to the bank with free infidel money.
Whilst in America, homeless shelters are filled to capacity; tent cities have sprung up all over the U.S. filled with desperate, jobless, homeless, Americans.
Massive debt. The massive printing of paper money. There is no question that the total DESTRUCTION of America’s economy is planned. The results will be horrifying. In the once wealthy and great nation of America, millions of Americans will become destitute, hungry and homeless with no money or resources to help them.
A major investor states America is going to reach Zimbabwe hyperinflation.
http://economyincrisis.org/articles/show/2942
Organic, non-gmo fruit and nut trees and berries must be planted in all of our nation’s cities’ and towns’ parks and wherever there is space to help the many millions of Americans who will soon be in a desperate struggle to survive.
Not Zimbabwe, Weimar Germany maybe, but not Zimbabwe. In Zimbabwe, the government confiscated the farmland and gave it to people who didn’t know how to farm, eliminating any real economy they once had. In contrast, Weimar Germany had a currency crisis, but it still had functioning means of production, albeit crippled by a labor shortage due to war casualties.
I just checked today and discovered that the above referenced article is no longer on the internet. I don’t know who removed it.
Watch it. And weep for our great nation and people:
FALL Of The Republic – The Presidency Of Barack H Obama – The Full Movie HQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8LPNRI_6T8&feature=player_embedded
If anyone thinks this is still avoidable think again real hard. Tie this into it and we are in for one hell of a ride. I just wonder how much like the French Revolution it will turn out to be. I pray you are all prepared as well as can be.
http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-54-is-available-Global-systemic-crisis-Autumn-2011-Budget-T-Bonds-Dollar-the-three-US-crises-which-will-cause_a6340.html
One more time; Create massive amounts of new wealth, or fall forever.
Looking at the current Political make up of the House and Senate in Washington DC, can anyone make a case that they will make the right decisions on the Debt and Spending. Not a decision that will correct their past mistakes, like Obamacare and No Child Left Behind. Cost of Medicare and Medicaid. Excessive hiring of Government Employees.
Department of Energy, employing 77,000 people, and America has no Energy
Policy. What do they do in that building.
Just think, George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barak Obama. 22 years of being led by big spender, Yale and Harvard educated
Central Planners. Every on a “Joke”. God, America is in real trouble.
I just don’t think the likes of Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, John McCain, Chuckie Shumer, John Boehner, Charles Rangel, Dick Durbin, Dick Lugar
Just to name a few, will do what is right for the American People and the future of the Country. Don’t expect any progress from this group.
Plus, they have been reducing the value of the Dollar for the past 20-30 years, destroying the manufacturing base of the country and killing the employment of the middle class factory worker, Skilled jobs like Tool and Mold Maker. Machine Tool Industry, Steel Industry, Computers. ect.
What do we expect to happen with our economy.
Tom Blumer, Write this down 500 times (maybe you will remember), The US Federal Government does NOT have a tax revenue problem! It has a spending problem! The “Welfare State,” must be trimmed, Social Security must be fixed or fazed out. Charity is not the Federal Government’s business! The poor are the respective states responsibility. Your analogy of the family in debt, is apt but you discard it immediately! We out here in real economy do not have the option of forcing our boss to cover our debts!!! You might want to read, ‘Taxation: The People’s Business,’ by Andrew Mellon.
With roughly 50% of household NO paying any income tax, and half of those getting TAX CREDITS, and 65% of households getting some sort of government payout each month, don’t hold your breath for any reform until AFTER the economic apocalypse.