Lebanon: Fractured Past, Bleak Present
In other words, the Iranian regime has a narrow base in Lebanon, being dependent on a faction that perhaps amounts to 20% of Lebanese. This precarious situation would become worse with a collapse of the Syrian regime, Iran’s strategic partner and route to Lebanon. Iran would presumably have to fall back on Beirut’s airport and Lebanese ports to supply Hezbollah, which would not be appreciated by most Lebanese.
BR: Would it be correct to describe the opposition as being an alliance of Sunni Muslims, Christians, and sometimes the Druze, and what are their positions and goals?
WH: The opposition encompasses the overwhelming majority of Sunnis, at least half the Christians, and most Druze regardless of the perambulations of Druze leaders. Senior Druze politician Walid Jumblatt is an interesting case; he has been a forthright Lebanese voice against the crimes of the Assad regime since 2011 yet his party continues to sustain the Mikati government, Hezbollah’s vehicle.
In political terms, the opposition is an alliance of Sunni Muslim and Christian leaders who want to resurrect a mercantile Lebanon somehow insulated from regional turbulence, and its support base includes most Druze and a significant minority of Shia. However the opposition does not really have a coherent vision of a new Lebanon and many Sunnis, frustrated by weak leadership, are drifting toward Sunni Islamist militancy.
Christians in general and Maronites in particular are split between the two major political camps. Drawing on the resentments — especially of less well-off Maronites — toward the Sunni bourgeoisie and Sunni Arab oil state money, Michel Aoun took a substantial segment into alignment with the Shia of Hezbollah. However, Christians are also sensitive about the pretension and pressure of Hezbollah and that party is not mentally well-equipped to interpret the shifting tides. The Christian mood is fickle and still influenced by rancor from the poor outcome for Maronites of the late 20th century war years.
Apart from the usual personal agendas, opposition politicians — targeted in the post-2005 political murder campaign (which they believe was the work of Assad and Hezbollah) — want the downfall of the Syrian regime, the removal of Hezbollah weapons, and constriction of Iran’s involvement in Lebanon. They are short on reassurances to Shia Lebanon on building a positive partnership in a restructured political order.
The sooner Syria gets “regime change,” the better. If they kick the Russkies out of Tartus, that will be an added bonus!
I swear, I am sick to death of the endless lunacy on parade that is the Moslem world and its liars, thieves, and killers. When, oh when, will the American people finally cast off the cadre of crooks that has kept us over there to get oil and kept us away from our own oil over here that will extricate us from the outright evil that is the Moslem world.
Bravo!….for your thoughts here….and, count me in.
This is the best article yet to appear about this labyrinthine cauldron called the Levant or Western Asia. Frankly I’m in awe of this Mr William Harris here who can recite this stuff orally, as no doubt was done in this superb interview.
The key sentence is:
“WH: Given the entrenched political and strategic realities and interlocking tendencies toward inertia in the Levant, I am skeptical about the effect of any U.S. policies (and still more skeptical about the rest of the West)”…..and, of that…I like “..interlocking tendencies..”, superb understatement.
Simply put, there’s no more to be said.
We Americans, especially after losing those young Marines there at the barracks explosions, should limit any “action” to Special Forces probes and demolition teams. Any American “kinetic”…I love that new word…action should be guerilla type…fight our Muslim enemy there on their terms, not via our accustomed massed presence, which seems almost Napoleonic right about now…..look at Afghanistan and Iraq.
Our Muslim enemy are like sand dunes…..the blow (no pun intended) and sting and shift about the scene like waves.
To keep this alien sand out of our American eyes will require a complete change of “administration” in Washington D.C.
…apologies here right now, but I forgot to add my favorite arrow about that infamous Sykes-Picot Agreement….which I try to insert at every opportunity….no one else even mentions those hand drawn borders….and the oh, so coy French who seem to be mute now….unless they’ve got a chop-stick stirring things up out of sight.
GWBush had it within his power to correct at least some of the egregious errors implicit in the Sykes-Picot Treaty, but failed miserably. Having led this country into an invasion of the unnatural political construct known as Iraq, GWBush could have advocated the partition of that place into at least three separate and distinct political and religious entities that were more organic and likely to be sustainable (i.e. Kurdish north, Shia central, and Sunni south). Instead we have squandored American blood and treasure on the continuation of the failed approaches of the past. I suspect it was better in their minds to fight endless wars in the Middle East to protect the investments of their cronies in the oil companies than to have them suffer the economic loss of leaving their assets over there and begin to develop our oil resources over here. After all, its the same approach that we’ve been following since the end of WWII. The hidebound bureaucrats couldn’t or wouldn’t have it any other way.
Isn’t the US CFR government trying to get rid of those lines by supporting the Muslim Brotherhood within region 4 of the WTO? The region is being given over to them in return for what?
Perhaps, I am wrong.
“In other words, the Iranian regime has a narrow base in Lebanon, being dependent on a faction that perhaps amounts to 20% of Lebanese. This precarious situation would become worse with a collapse of the Syrian regime, Iran’s strategic partner and route to Lebanon. Iran would presumably have to fall back on Beirut’s airport and Lebanese ports to supply Hezbollah, which would not be appreciated by most Lebanese.”
Yet Hezbollah has all the weapons, especially the powerful rockets that can easily reach Israel. If Syria does fall and a lot of Syria’s weapons, espcially its chemical weapons, end up in the hands of Hezbollah, there WILL be a confrontation with Israel. But with supply lines cut to Syria and with Israel (and possibly the US Navy) blockading ports in Lebanon, how long could Hezbollah hold out before they start running out of supplies? Hezbollah would be in an even tough fix if the Christians rise up against them, which could very well happen if Syria and Iran are out of the picture. This is a very dangerous time in Lebanon and Hezbollah’s future will hinge on what happens in Syria. If Assad falls, Hezbollah may go with it, but not without a very bloody fight.
This seems like only half an interview. Why was an Israeli invasion not discussed? If Israel strikes Iran, Hezbollah will let the missiles fly, and the Israelis will level, occupy and possibly even annex everything south of the Litani river, forcing 500,000 people farther north (people for whom I have ZERO sympathy).
And if those Hezbollah rockets have any WMDs on it, Lebanon could very well be turned into a radioactive crater, from which it would simply cease to exist for all time.
I personally think there exists a splendid opportunity for Israel to redress it’s pusillanimous mistakes of the July War. I would envision a lightning raid into Hezbollah territory. Insert airborne forces behind the Hezbollah fortifications, send armored units around back and cut them off. Then mop them up like Hitler mopped up the outflanked and cut off Maginot Line in 1940, The objective would be quite simple and limited; to disarm Hezbollah, seize or destroy their weapons caches and munitions dumps. Destroy the rockets. Dynamite the tunnels and fortifications. Perhaps arrange to hand over the weapons, ammunition and equipment to the Lebanese Army and perhaps the Free Syrian Army at their Turkish safe areas. Then quickly go home and watch things “sort themselves out”.
Mr Harris would not be impressed with your exceptionally hateful comments.
Having watched and read about this region for awhile, I’m curious about his position on Israel and Lebanon. I mean besides the obvious muslim vs jew thing, why is Lebanon so hostile towards Israel? With their various religions, it seems to me that a long lasting peace would happen if and when hezbollah gets destroyed.
Lebanon is rightfully a Christian country, just like Kosovo, but Muslim fanatics disgustingly bred their way into power. The entire world is becoming a dumber, more miserable place because better educated, higher quality native populations are being overrun by fecund immigrants who produce nothing but more spawn.
The more I read about these issues, the more I can foresee that Jesus Christ is coming back very soon, because it doesn’t appear that anything else (with all the comments above),will solve all the issues of our world. It seems that every organization has their own take on issues, and no one seems to have any answers. I am almost 77 years of age, have seen much in our world, and it appears to me that no one really has any answers. I am not a writer,(obviously), but I do have convictions as a Christian, and I know what the Bible says.I just realize more and more that this world needs Jesus to come back to renovate the whole earth.
Dear Lord, I pray, let it be so!
I’ll be 65 in August. I too have seen much in our world. We are living in an unbelievable time in history. Isolated countries are seeing through technology how free people exist. The internet and smart phones have changed and will change the world. The middle east problem was high jacked by the MB. The young people fought for freedom and will not stop until they get it. All over, dictators will fall, kingdoms will fall. People will get tired of random violence and the radical groups will fail. When not forced to be a Muslim and are free to choose their faith there will be a tremendous conversion to Christianity. Thank God for God.