Latino Vote Could Decide the Election
Barack Obama and John McCain are both in hot pursuit of the Latino vote. The presidential candidates are speaking to three different Latino organizations this summer: The National Association of Latino Elected Officials, the League of United Latin American Citizens, and — next week — the National Council of La Raza.
Yet, when Washington pundits discuss the Latino vote, it only shows how clueless most of them are on the subject. Apparently, for much of the elite media, their expertise in all things Latino doesn’t extend beyond the No. 4 combo plate at the District’s newest Tex-Mex joint.
Here are some essentials you need to know about the much-discussed, and yet poorly understood, Latino vote — and how it could help decide the 2008 election:
• The reason Obama and McCain are being so aggressive in pursuing the more than 9 million Latinos expected to vote in November is because neither candidate has a lock on them. And that’s because Hillary Clinton is on the sidelines. Clinton did very well with Latino voters — undeservedly so, I would argue. But, nonetheless, many of those Hillaristas don’t seem all that eager to switch to Obama in the general election. Besides, McCain is no pushover when it comes to appealing to Latinos, having earned between 65-70 percent in his Senate campaigns in Arizona. This can go either way.
• It’s not the numbers. Certainly 9 million voters is nothing to sneer at, but the reason that Latinos are heavily courted has less to do with how many there are than with how unpredictable they can be. This is a population that, while inclined to register Democratic, has shown a willingness to vote for moderate Republicans who reach out to them. If they were solidly Democratic and never splintered off, they’d be marginalized — written off by one party and taken for granted by the other. As it stands, candidates from both of the major political parties want to get on their dance card.
• Immigration is just one issue among many that Latinos care about — except when it isn’t. Under normal circumstances, Latinos might pick a president based on his stand on a host of issues, from Iraq to the economy to health care. But this isn’t a normal election year. With nativists and rightwing opportunists having poisoned the national mood and given the immigration debate a bitter anti-Hispanic flavor, many Hispanics are itching for a chance to say: “No mas!” So they tell pollsters that immigration is near the top of the list of issues that will decide who they pick as president.
• Candidates ignore all this at their peril. It’s no different than the fuss that was made over the Irish and Italians in the Northeast when they started to come of age politically in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. People are the same the world over. They want responsive government that solves problems but also knows when to get out of the way and let the individual succeed. They want to be asked for their support, and not have it taken for granted. And, above all, they want to be treated with respect — especially at a time when they and people like them are being insulted, picked on, and treated as scapegoats.
Barack Obama and John McCain deserve credit — not just for going after the Latino vote but doing so in a manner that is informative, useful, and substantive. This isn’t the old days when politicians would just hand out tacos and pose with mariachis. Latinos know how important their votes are, and they expect candidates to act in ways that reflect that.
Ruben, iome back later and read the comments to find out what crap you’re pedalling now.
Silly, Ruben does not read comments or value discourse. He’s part of the failing MSM, who just says whatever the want, without facts, then ignores the masses. They’re so arrogant and stubborn.
But Ruben, take a look at this piece, since it’s on CNN, which I never read (someone sent it to me) but where they allow you to write more balderdash:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/07/11/new-mccain-ad-hispanic-immigrants-are-gods-children/
This writing gets an article on PJM? 9 million Hispanic voters is his key number and that is it?
How about a little analysis on which battleground state Swing-voting (as opposed to those always voting D) Hispanics might be a key? It ain’t going to be California, New York, or Texas, as those states are pretty much decided. Also, Hispanics from where? Are they foreign-born citizens or first generation??
You know what, neither candidate has a lock on the “white” vote (whatever that is), and there is probably at least 120,000,000+ white voters as compared to 9,000,000 Hispanics. The key thing should be that we are all American citizens.
Can we get someone to write on the “Asian” voters?
Sorry, but this election will be decided by white males, just like in 2000 and 2004.
“Silly, Ruben does not read comments or value discourse.”
Ruben Navarrette Jr. graduated from the vastly overrated academic institution called Harvard University. Intellectual laziness pervades the culture. He does not feel obligated to answer the hard questions. It’s as simple as that.
“Ruben Navarrette Jr. graduated from the vastly overrated academic institution called Harvard University. Intellectual laziness pervades the culture.”
Well said. The dumbest people I know went to Ivies. The smartest worked their way thru states schools. Funny that this would cause the intellectual elite to laugh, but deep inside, they laugh b/c they know they’re wrong.
A state by state analysis from Ruben? Ha!
You know what disappoints me about this piece? I’m kind of curious about Hispanic voters and what effect geographic and ethnic differences are going to make on the upcoming election down there in the USA.
Judging from the tone of this article the writer assumes that “The Hispanic Vote” is a solid bloc, yet I can’t help thinking that a Cuban-American in Florida might not have the same motivations as a Mexican-American voter in say California or Texas.
Considering how many electoral college votes there are between California, Texas, and Florida this might be significant. Are Mexican-American citizens angry at Republicans over the illegal immigration issue? Or do they support the Republican position because they are legal? Do Cuban-Americans see Obama as soft on Cuba? Or perhaps it doesn’t matter as much considering how many of them are second generation now.
If Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada are in play this time, do the Hispanic voters there lean one way or the other? Will the Latino vote make the difference?
I was really hoping for some information. I wish some had been included.
Some valuable insight in the comments section, but the article itself was superficial and more concerned with projecting a threatening message, submit to the Hispanic invasion or else!
It simply is unacceptable to have millions of illegal aliens forced upon us, if the Hispanics Navarrette claims to speak for are facilitating and insisting upon circumventing our laws they can only expect to be looked at with disdain.
Individuals will decide this election. So long as we value the tribalism that Mr Navarette and the Democrats love so much, any group having a larger number than the margin can claim to decide for all of us. I can think of at least ten such groups off the top of my head. Ruben Navarette as Ruben Navarette will decide this election. Ruben Navarette as a Hispanic won’t. Nor will he as a male, or a Californian or any other tribe to which he claims membership.
Pigeonholing people as Latino or Asian or any other group is the worst form of racial profiling.
“Ken Hahn,” Unlike you, I don’t have a problem with racial profiling per se – I’ll gladly pull 20 middle eastern men in their 20′s/30′s out of line at the airport check-in…yet leave the grannies on their 70′s/80′s or Swedes in peace and quiet.
The issue here for me is that Navarette is simply unable to free his thinking from parrotted, near-cliched Leftist limitations. It’s a shame that PJM has such 4th rate Leftist writers (or, is that redundant?!).
Navarette is employed because people assume that people who are Hispanic vote based on racial issues. People also vote based on educational philosophy, economic philosophy, and their perceptions of the candidate’s competence.
I also many people in Tucson who were second and third generation immigrants from Mexico. Many were Spanish surnamed. They identified themselves as white and refused to let their children learn Spanish because they wanted their children to speak like Americans not like Mexicans.
I wonder how Navarette would deal with predicting their voting pattern.
Ruben gets to write on PJM the same reason he got into Harvard- Can you say “Token”? He fails to mention that both Obama and McCain seem to think that pandering is the key to the hearts of any minority.
He also fails to mention that to too many (most?) minorities, that is true.
There is no Hispanic or Latino voting blocs. They are actually a dozen different national voting blocs. Cuban-Americans, Puerto Ricans, Mexican-Americans, Central American-Americans, Colombian-Americans, Venezuelan -Americans, etc. all have different political motivations.
On a general level, both candidates are trying to get the Hispanic vote. However, only Sen. McCain has started to develop finely tuned messages tailored to voters of specific national origins. For example, whereas the Democrats and Sen. Obama have opposed the FTA with Colombia and sought to isolate its leadership, Sen. McCain has been an ardent supporter of the FTA and of the Colombian government (which has completely turned the country around in the past 6 years). Similarly, Sen. McCain’s disdain for Venezuela’s Chavez and the Democrats’ friendliness with Chavez will drive most Venezuelan-Americans to vote for McCain. Central Americans (particularly Nicaraguan-Americans) that experienced the chaos and murders of Communist militias during the 60s – 80s are also more likely to support McCain and Republican candidates due to their stronger repudiation of communists such as Castro, Ortega, Chavez, and others, compared to Democrats relative friendliness with these leaders.
What is likely is that winning the Cuban, Colombian, Venezuelan, and Nicaraguan -American votes in Florida will help McCain win the state more easily that expected. Using strong supporters in these communities to reach out to the Mexican-American community will go a long way in helping Sen. McCain make significant electoral gains among Hispanics.
Why would a Hispanic voter care about illegal aliens other than to be against them? Isn’t a voter a citizen? Aren’t citizens either born or naturalized? If a voter is naturalized, why would he be in favor of someone getting to come to this country illegally when he (the voter) played by the rules?
“It ain’t going to be California, New York, or Texas, as those states are pretty much decided.”
Evidence please! And don’t try to pass off a poll as evidence. In California (55 EV’s) Latinos are the largest voting block, followed by Gray’s.
McCain has the gray vote, if he takes the Latino vote ( a good chance because most Latinos and ALL the ones I have spoken with, won’t vote for a black man. Unlike Whites, they don’t even bother to lie about it.) he takes CA. New York will be close, but Ohhhhh…..BAMA has no shot at Texas.
I ran the demos on N.Y. and it will depend on the soccer moms and the values voters. Ohhhhh…..BAMA’s promise to raise taxes will help in New York.
Ohhhhhh……BAMA has turned a 15 point lead ( by those bogus polls the left loves so much) into a 3 point lead in the last week. We have 4 more months to go. NOTHING has been decided yet. Ohhhhhh…..BAMA might not even be the candidate.
Lots of time left for those supers to look at how fast NObama’s ship is sinking and look for a life boat named Hillery. It has happened before. 1932 with FDR.
There are many hispanics who came here legally who see this “amnesty” issue as a lap in the face and who are not on the side of amnesty for lawbreakers and who will also vote against it. They are the true Americans who believe that all immigrants, not just latino, deserve a chance at the American dream.
Latino is the new racist. No longer is it the white man. Rubin, by his blatant disregard for other immigrant ethnicities in every one of his articles deserves to be outed for the racist he is.
DDC: I am one of those Latinos who came legally:Ruben is not a racist;he’s simply a shill,the affirmative action,no talent sock puppet for greedhead,globalist plutocrats,and sweatshop owners who need cheap labor to exploit,and want to bring down living standards for legal immigrants, and native-born Americans alike.Ruben provides these traitors with ideological covers:Multiculturalism, compassion,opposition to racism,all the usual buzzwords and phrases..That’s why they got him into college, brainwashed him with contrived hatred,and put him on this blog as the token latino.He thinks he’s a great commentator and champion of the oppressed;he’s just their pet parrot.
After much thought, I have decided to contribute to this site. Although it seems to be populated by Backwards red staters, I will none the less speak. You’re a legal Immigrant deguello? from what country? Because There is a large segment of America’s population that doesn’t want LEGAL Immigration. Say what you will about mexicans, but there is a difference between them and other recent Immigrants. And that’s the fact that they are MIGRANTS not Immigrants. IF you don’t know the difference look it up. Deguello speaks about shills and sock puppets. Republicans are the biggest sock puppets in the world! the Overwhelming majority of republicans live in rural, under developed, poverty stricken areas of AMerica.
How naive can you people be? These rural inhabitants of America are the very same people that need government programs. They need all the help they can get. Yet, they vote for a party which advocated for the rich getting richer. Republicans ooze greed and corruption. Look at this republican administration. It’s now 1 of the most incompetent and most hated in ALL of American history. So go ahead and divert attention for the republican mess in Iraq. Go ahead and divert attention from The failing AMerican economy. Because when all is said and done, the history books will show that a republican was to blame. Deguello ignorantly blames multi-culturalism for Americas woes. But it’s multi-culturalism that has allowed you to immigrate to America. Please think before you speak.
I don’t understand your hatred for the Bush administration since it, and the bipartisan plutocracy ranging from the Wall Street Journal,Hormel, the Farm lobby,real state groups, thousands of sweatshop owners and crossing the whole ideological spectrum, leftward,to George Soros,and the NYtimes, believes in open borders. How does it feel to be in full agreement with rapacious greedheads?The American economy began to fail after the democrats took over. They oppose drilling ,nuclear power,coal, anything that could bring back reasonably priced fuel,and therefore, prosperity. The financial mess and market collapse was engineed partly by senators Dodd and Schumer, two democrat luminaries.I don’t blame multiculturalism for America’s woes alone; It’s the ideology that gives justification to the above named villains who use it to unfairly villify those who do not want to see the US invaded, by hordes of poor, desperate, ignorant unskilled people bound to be exploited at slave wages,while the Middle and working classes, get taxed to pay for their social services.All countries realize that open borders means chaotic social disruption.Try to emigrate to mexico,see how easy it is!Stop patronizing your readers:Illegal aliens are neither migrants,nor immigrants ,they are lawbreaking invaders, aided and abetted,by unreflective,naive,”advocates’ like yourself,who self righteously bloviate about suppossed US racism, while objectively justifying a regime of sweatshop exploitation.I happen to live in a Blue state where illegals are welcome to wash cars, nanny upper class liberal brats, cut grass,Live in crowded basements ,and provide employment to the police,while their children languish in ignorance and illiteracy in democrat liberal-run schools.These are the ugly realities of illegal “immigation”, that,and dropping wages for inner-city black and other hispanic Americans.As to how and where I came from,if you need to know, I am a proud Cuban-American who came to the US LEGALLY,forced into exile by the thug Castro,and savoring the bitter irony, that there are thousands of Americans who would like to turn the US into a giant imitation of Cuba.Educate yourself Carlos!We need immigrants, but only if they come here legally!
Those hordes of poor, unskilled,”ignorant”, workers are what this country was built on. I mean you came from the a different country. The chances of you being a poor and unskilled worker is very high. Judging by your grammar and spelling, I can’t be too far off. I find it hilarious someone with a 3rd grade Literacy level, can call someone else illiterate. by the way, Advil wants to thank you. I’ve spent at least 1000$ in headace medicine trying to Decipher your Butchering of the english language. I knew you had to be either Cuban or Argentinian. Mexico is not a communist state! Cuba is.I feel we should secure the florida coastline before we do the mexican border. Communist have vowed to destroy america. Millions of cubans ILLEGALLY flee into our country. Surely, you want the cuban dry-foot policy revoked right? why should america cater to Cubans who illegally come into america? Shouldn’t cubans such as yourself have stayed home to fix cuba? isn’t this what you condemn mexican immigrants for not doing? Aren’t you the same person who complained about Immigrants “hyphenating” thier American Titles? So how can you call yourself a CUBAN-American? Wasn’t it you who said there are only Americans in America? This is exactly what I mean, when I say republicans are backwards. You speak out of both sides of your mouth deguello. By the way, stop using the word “plutocracy” so much. It makes it seem like you just learned the definition of the word. It makes you look foolish.
This is what happens when the sad reality of their cognitive poverty challenges those promoted beyond their reading/intellectual levels by affirmative action,they have hysterical breakdowns.I’m suppossed to take seriously attacks on my prose from someone who thinks that “plutocracy” is a third-grade level word,and needs advil to bear the pain of actually having to look up that word in the dictionary?Carlito,I beg you in the name of your evanescing sanity:stay away from this blog and all literature above the level of”Cat in the Hat”,or you’ll need something a lot stronger,and more addictive than advil,and I do’t mean Tequila.And now for a few clarifications:1.I was not the same person who complained about hyphenated names;I don’t have a problem with it,as long as your primary allegiance is to this country.2.I never said that there are only Asmericans in America,so please don’t attribte that statement to me. Your cheap racist attacks on Cubans and Argentinians for being poor writers,is pathetic and laughable.No person who has read Jose Marti,(Cuban)or Jorge Luis Borges,(Argentinian)could possibly think that a statement like that could come from anyone except a demented ignoramus.As for my staying in Cuba to fight Castro,nice idea, but being 8 years old at the time I was a bit too immature;my father did, and hewas was lucky to escape with his life.I am against ANY illegal entry into this country,by anyone regerdless of country or ethnicity illegal immigration,including those Cubans who come here illegally.However,exceptions should be made for political exiles from all countries.Finally, it is true that immigrants built these country,but the difference is that they were legal,vetted,and controlled.Mexico is not a Communist country it’s true, its a vicious plutocracy,run by vicious corrupt thugs who find it convenient to ship their oppressed poor to the greedy hands of gringo exploiters, to prevent a build up of anger that could result in revolution.They count on naive ethnic american immigration fanatics like you to sreve as their ideological useful idiots.Finally:PLUTOCRACY plutocracy P-l-U-T-O-C-R-A-C-Y plutocratic sock puppet, Bush enabler, plutocrat’s sock puppet,(have you reached for the tequila yet Carlos),PLUTOCCRACY, how about mezcal Carlito? Plutocrat PLUTOCRACY! Mozo de la camarilla plutocratica.
I think Carlitos od’eed on his advil. Shall I call poison alert?
wow! Poor simple minded fool. It was YOU who complains about “multi-culturalism” in America you dweeb. Yet, you stand here and call yourself a “cuban-american”? This is America, and if you hate Multi-culturalism as you claim. Then you would have only called yourself an American.
Plutocracy isn’t a third grade level word, but your gross misuse of the word is astounding. You seem to think that adding a bunch of big words with 3rd grade GRAMMAR! makes you look smart. It really doesn’t. It’s not looking up the definition that gives me a headache. It’s Reading your 2,000 word post that’s all written in 1 single sentence. Spell check was made for people like you.
Let me ask you something DeGuello. Are you still 8 years old? I know you still have the Grammar skills of an 8 year old, but not the mentality. Why not go fight castro now? Take what you learned in America and go fight for the Communist Country you associate yourself with. And take the millions of so-called “assimilated” cubans who waive that communist rag with you.
My cheap racist attacks on Cubans and Argentinians? how was that racist? Cubans are known for talking the way that you do! Who are you to tell anyone how to run a country? your country is worse than Mexico. If you had any sense or cajones, you’d be fighting for the freedom of Cuba. They say Hundereds of thousands of Cubans will flee to Florida once that happens. We’ll see if you still Believe that garbage that you’re spewing.
Immigrants came legally? Well, that just shows your incompetence on the subject. Italians did NOT come legally. Hence why they called them,”W.O.P’s” which means WITH OUT PAPERS! And the Irish, well, there are over 50,000 of them ILLEGALLY in America TO this day! and assimilation, well, would we have a “Little Italy” or an “Irish Day Parade”? your sense of History is alittle mixed up.
Why do you speak of Revolution? In all seriousness, what do Cubans know about Revolution? If you knew anything about it, your country would be free. I don’t mean that in a racist way, only in a realistic one. You have no space to talk about other countries.
Finally, Don’t call poison alert. Call Hooked on Phonics. You would get more usage out of them.
p.s
I never condemned Cubans or Argentinians for being Poor writers. I merely meant the Stupid views you hold. But I didn’t expect you to get that right away.
It’s as I feared,the combination of advil addiction and cognitive deficit,has led to a total breakdown of intectual coherence,reason and decency.Grammar lessons from someone who uses usage when he means benefit, and who thinks that cojones is spelt cajones! What a scream! Finally, hooked on phonics? What is that? A projection of the content of your remedial reading courses you had to take in Community College?It didn’t take did it? Affirmative action got you into college Carlos, but it sure proved unable to educate you. BTW: I’m told you can get very nice sraitjackets on ebay;give them a try;you could use,oops1 sorry:usage one!
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