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Jobs: False ‘Improvement,’ Proposed Destruction

Last week's report was worse than it appeared; the latest health care wrinkle would damage things further.

by
Tom Blumer

Bio

March 13, 2010 - 12:20 am
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Remember when our president was telling us that his number one focus would be Joe Biden’s favorite three-letter word (“J-O-B-S, jobs!”)? It’s hard to believe, but it was only six weeks ago (“Obama to recast agenda to focus on jobs, deficit”) at the State of the Union address.

True to his word (not), it’s been virtually all health care, all the time since, including a new wrinkle that would seriously cripple the employment market.

The president’s reaction to more bad employment news on March 5 was to resort to happy talk, while Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid instead chose crazy talk:

Today was a big day in America. Only 36,000 people lost their jobs today, which is really good.

Besides falsely characterizing the nature of the result, Reid betrayed a fundamental misunderstanding of what Uncle Sam’s monthly Employment Situation report really tells us. It is a knowledge gap apparently shared by the press, most politicians, and a large percentage of the country’s population. It’s something I also explained here 18 months ago, apparently to little avail.

The following charts illustrate the problem:

The first chart — Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) — shows us how many net jobs the economy really picked up or lost each month going back to January 2004. It tells us that 473,000 more people were working during February than were working during January.

The second chart — Seasonally Adjusted (SA) — reframes the actual results by adjusting them for seasonal trends like Christmas hiring and summer jobs. In this case, those machinations resulted in 36,000 jobs lost. There’s nothing wrong with this exercise; it’s a legitimate form of statistical smoothing designed to make month-to-month results more readily comparable. But it does not — repeat, does not — tell us what actually happened in America’s factories, job sites, and offices in any given month, as the vast majority of media reports and political announcements would lead one to believe.

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14 Comments, 14 Threads, 1 Trackbacks

  1. 1. Marc Malone

    Trashing things accidentally or purposely? Why, both, of course. The guys are simply not smart or competent enough to this kind of damage willfully. You give them entirely too much credit.

  2. 2. Pedro

    Watch the dollar drop significantly this week if Obama care passes.We are on the Titanic and Captain Obama says full steam ahead.I am begining to believe Cloward-Pivens may be at work here.

  3. 3. Jim

    The Democrats are trashing the economy deliberately. You make conditions bad enough for Americans, and you have Americans desperate enough to beg the government to take care of them. To do that you deny Americans access to energy resources, you make it to costly for companies to hire more employees, and you expand entitlements to people who want handouts from the government.

  4. 4. Warren Bonesteel

    Ideology is never concerned with the facts…except when they can be cheery-picked and spun into an entirely false reality.

  5. 5. Think

    “one must wonder if they’re trashing things accidentally or deliberately.”

    What difference does it make?

    Could have, should have, would have, didn’t, won’t don’t mean squat.

    Neither will scream, shout, run about, Fox News, talk radio, blogs, articles like this one and tens of thousands of tea party gatherings.

    The fact is that there is nothing anyone can do about it until election days arrive.

  6. 6. Cybergeezer

    The business section of the Miami Herald has many stories of failed businesses, and more layoffs.
    WE NEED TO BE IN D.C. ON MARCH 16TH TO MARCH AGAINST THIS TOTALITARIAN GOVERNMENT AND THESE CRIMINALS RUNNING IT.

  7. 7. Steven

    The economy is so bad I hear some American seniors are now trying to get adopted by Chinese babies.

    Steven

  8. 8. Carpenter

    There is little doubt that Baal Hussein Obama, the Black Jimmy Carter wants to be the Black FDR. And he will do anything to achieve that goal even if that means creating another Great Depression. Afterall he will be able to blame GEORGE BUSH for anything and everything and most of the Country including Ron Paul will agree. BUSH CAUSED EVERYTHING!! IT’S ALL HIS FAULT!!

    Hillary wants Obama to cause a Great Depression so that she can be the Female FDR and most Democrats could care less just as long as the NEXT NEW DEAL is a bigger better deal no matter what the cost.

    The bottom line is this. When you live in a land that has sacrificed 60 MILLION babies to Molech you have to expect somekind of divine judgement. This nation has done what is evil in the sight of the Lord and it is being punished for it’s sins.

    WE are getting the Government WE deserve. Sorry

  9. We should demand that Congress remove the shackles placed upon our economy by the radical environmentalist movement that has infiltrated Washington. There is no longer any reason (nor was there) to restrict our economy and standard of living by not utilizing our natural resources such as oil, natural gas, and nuclear power.

    It should be clear that the goal of radical environmentalists is the destruction of our economy and the creation of misery and poverty for American families under the illusion of “saving the planet”.

  10. 10. Ilan Ben Menachem

    To do that you deny Americans access to energy resources, you make it to costly for companies to hire more employees, and you expand entitlements to people who want handouts from the government.

  11. 11. myth buster

    9. Then maybe it’s long past time that the blood of murderers is shed to appease divine wrath for shedding the blood of the innocent.

  12. 12. Punkindrublic

    If (and I don’t have a good feeling about the direction they’re taking us) Obama and company DO take this country down a steep and ruinous path, then let the gutters of Washington DC run freely with something besides red ink.

    He is nothing more that a spineless shit communist bastard.

  13. 13. nobozons

    Pelosi said that if you want to pursue you whims the state will give you health care. I think that the democrat party is communist. The country is spending more money each month to keep the lazies on unemployment and to keep the lazy overpaid government employees including the useless union teachers who don’t teach employed. I hear that sucking sound as we go round and round down the drain.

  14. 14. reformed socialist

    “As with so many other areas of governance in this administration, one must wonder if they’re trashing things accidentally or deliberately.”

    Surely, it’s deliberate. Just read Saul Alinsky. Obama – the one-time, Alinsky-method trainer – and his merry men, are out to eliminate the middle class. It’s right there in “Rules for Radicals.”

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