Israel’s Energy Discovery: Game-Changer?
Is there a realistic possibility that this could lead to conflict between Israel and Turkey? Or has Turkey, as a NATO member, been warned against escalating the situation?
The strengthening ties between Israel and Cyprus underpinned by mutual interests in the export of natural gas could make the possibility of regional conflict involving Turkey a realistic one, though not in the near future. Israel is aware of this and an internal debate has been going on regarding Cyprus.
Looking from Nicosia, the choices seem simpler. Recent developments in the area have clearly weakened Cyprus’s geopolitical position vis-à-vis Turkey. Greece, Cyprus’ patron, is practically bankrupt. Egypt and Libya, traditional allies within the Arab world, are both undergoing a revolutionary process.
Against this backdrop Cypriot government officials openly invited the Israeli military to play an active role defending Cypriot interests. In private talks Cypriot officials are supportive of letting the Israeli Air Force use Cypriot bases.
What effect is this situation having on Israel’s strategic situation? Can we expect a rapid improvement of relations between Israel and Cyprus?
The idea of an Israeli-Cypriot pact seemed inconceivable not many years ago. Relations between Israel and Cyprus had never been warm. During the Cold War, Cyprus together with its traditional political patron Greece had been under strong Soviet influence, counter-balancing Turkey’s strong ties with NATO and the United States. Until recent years, Israel regarded Cyprus as pro-Palestinian, while from a Cypriot point of view Israel was above all Turkey’s strategic ally. Cypriots, especially from the powerful radical left, drew similarities between Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians and Turkey’s harsh policies toward the Kurds and the Armenians.
In recent years, as Israeli-Turkish relations cooled, tensions between Israel and Cyprus subsided. This rapprochement was significantly boosted by the recent developments in the oil and gas sector.
Where do you expect to see this situation heading in the period ahead?
Further discoveries of natural gas, and perhaps even oil reservoirs, near Israel and Cyprus could have far-reaching geopolitical implications, including potential instability. History teaches that the discovery of strategic assets in a disputed territory at a time of regional instability and shifting balance of power is a highly explosive formula. The flip side is that with wise handling and a productive trust-building international effort, these tensions could be defused and the immense revenues could be very helpful for the area’s development.
Well, the Arabs always wanted to drive Israel into the sea. They’re getting what they wanted, though not exactly what they had in mind.
Heh.
Why do you think the rest of the Arab world wants to destroy Israel? God blessed this nation and the rest can’t stand not having what belongs to everybody!
There is historic and Biblical evidence to show that a good chunk of Israel actually consisted of much of the northern Arabian Peninsula. In fact, I’ve heard tell that an archeological expedition to that area was kicked out of Saudi Arabia after a major discovery proving ancient Israelites lived there was discovered. In fact, soon after, the Saudis destroyed the site and whatever was found there.
Wouldn’t be surprised if some Israeli company is developing long-range sideways drilling technology. Just saying.
Two quick comments.
One, the quote, ”Our only resource is in our brains.” This is with the exception of our political elite, almost our entire media, most of our ”intellectuals” & many of our academics, all of whom have no brains. In this, we are very much like America.
Second, this is the best reason to hold out against any Palestinian state. When we begin exporting natural gas, suddenly, we shall see a great increase in support for Israel, particularly from the whores in the EU, if it still exists.
Well stated, Caroline Glick excluded.
Why no mention of the shale oil? Estimated third largest deposit in the world, very high quality and well within Israel terrirory.
Also I read recently that the Israeli navy is requesting more ships to defend the gas platforms but does not seem like nearly enough.
Virtually all of that shale oil is indeed found within Israel, and not in the territories. But the developers must first contend with the environmentalists who are opposing even the pilot project intended to validate the technology.
Yes, the Israeli navy is requesting more surface ships, but it faces two primary obstacles: the shortage of funds due to a pending request for a sixth sub (costing almost one billion dollars), and likely defense cutbacks resulting from the summer’s “social protests” and a potential shift to more social spending.
Israel’s challange once the fields become productive is not a military one. Their properties can be defended with one hand tied behind their backs. I can’t wait until Hizbullah launches an Iranean supplied silkworm missile at a platform or tanker. Beruit will be dust. No the bigger challange will be to keep the Shekel from inflating wildly thereby making Israeli exports unaffordable and stoking rampant domestic inflation such as happened in Netherlands and other suddenly petroleum rich countries, The establishment of a soverign wealth fund is of primo importance.
Establishment of a sovereign wealth fund *is* in the works for exactly the reasons you lay out. (It’s also a way of keeping the various sectarian and sectoral interests from bellying up to the trough to “get their share”.) Defending these platforms will be tougher than you suggest, but the enemy needs to be reminded of one thing. Since these platforms belong to an American company, the aggressor could face retaliation not just from the IDF but from the US Sixth Fleet as well – that is, if we replace the current president with one prepared to defend US interests.
Israel is not signatory to the UN law of the sea. So, what is the legal bases for its EEZ?
V. interesting but this is wrong
“[the ethnically Greek republic of] Cyprus”
The Republic of Cyprus isn’t Greek or Turkish. It’s the legal government of the whole island country (where the majority are ethnic Greeks) , including the part which the Turks ethnically cleansed of all its Greek ethnicity citizens, which they now occupy and where they settled colonists from Anatolia.
Unadultrated BS. The island has never been Greek. The treaty that establishes Cyprus as a state is the London-Zurich treaty between Turkey and Greece as the mother countries for the population of the island, and Britain who had leased free of charge for her help against the Russians from the Ottoman Turks. The Constitution of the island recognizes Greeks and Turks as equal constituent people comprising the island. It also mandates that Turkey, Greece and Britain as guarantors of the constitution. Greeks engineered a coup in 1974 to annul the constitution. Turkey intervened to protect Turkish Cypriots’ rights. Greek Cypriots’ patron has always been Russians. And Greek Cypriots to balance Turkey’s NATO membership, they have joined the nonaligned movement. Indeed, Makarios had been one of the leaders of the movement thanks to his Moscow connection. Also, the US in order to appease the Greek lobby, never supported the Turkish Cypriots. The fact that Greek Cypriots are internationally recognized is because the UN security council is stacked against Turkey. The UN recognized Cyprus has no legitimacy in the north. It does not represent the Turks’s in the north. This is so much so that EU laws are not applicable there. This is an implicit recognition of the fact that there is a distinct sovereign people there. At the end of the year it is crunch time for the Greek Cypriots as the UN mandated unification talks will end. Then, the Greeks can no longer delay that decision: either unite or disunite. Turkish Cypriots have very good chance of recognition by a large number of countries, this option they have never fully exercised so far. At this stage of the game, after forty years of immoral isolation, enters into a strategic relation with the Greeks that totally ignores Turks’ rights. This is a serious poke in the eye.
the above posted by me.
Reason #2 for the Arabs to want Israel for themselves. Reason #1, of course, is that they hate the Jews. The most wily of the Arabs will whip up their minions using Reason #1; but said minions will not reap any of the benefits.
The jurisdiction will be determined by the UN, you can violate UN judgments
–but then any country that does that will face isolation and trade boycotts
The question then becomes
–Are you feeling lucky?
ala Eastwood
Israel and Cyprus are very confident of the leglity of their territorial claims and have already referred the matter to the UN.
I take it you agree that Turkey, which has no legal leg to stand on here, needs to back off its gunboat threats and bullying tactics.
Israel is not signatory to the UN law of the sea. So on what basis does Israel declare its EEZ? The other option to establish EEZs is to delimit the sea borders by entering into treaties that no other country objects. Israel can enter into an agreement with Cyprus if the declared borders are not overlapping with other countries’. Turkey has not yet declared its EEZ because Cyprus is only 40 miles from Turkish shores and Turkey does not recognize Cyprus. So, Israel and Cyprus want to create a fact under the sea. If Turkey is to use the limits stipulated by the sea of the law UN, then there are overlaps with Cyprus’s claims. So, unless the Cyprus problem is solved prior to extraction of these resources, Turkey will protect its own and those of the Turkish Cypriots’.
Israel and Cyprus already have a treaty which has been sumbitted to the UN. Cyprus also has a previous treaty with Lebanon and the Israel-Cyprus agreement follows those boundaries. Now the Lebanese want to move the lines.
Turkey, as you pointed out does not a legal leg to stand on. That is why they are threatening military action. They can certainly commit yet another act of war against Cyprus and its legal territory but at their own peril. Cyprus has already declared a revenue sharing arrangement with ethnically cleansed occupied Turkish north.
Now the idiots in Washington want to sell the Turks more helicopters to hunt Kurds with. Yeesh.
Golda Meir looks down and rejoices.