Israeli Public Opinion and the Peace Process
It has become conventional wisdom that despite all the myriad obstacles blocking an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, the Israeli public continues to support a two-state solution as the only realistic resolution to the conflict. But at the same time, a recent poll suggests that support for the current Israeli government is actually increasing despite its refusal to renew a construction freeze within the West Bank settlements. Such obduracy seems incompatible with the pursuit of a land-for-peace deal and so the Israeli public’s ongoing support for the government appears contradictory; Israelis can either be for this obstructionist government or for the two-state solution, but not both.
The resolution of this apparent incongruity lies in the events of 2006. A recent study published by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University shows that in that year, more than 60 percent of Israelis supported the establishment of a Palestinian state, a high point in Israeli public support for the two-state solution. This high tide of support came whilst the country was still flush with the “success” of the disengagement from Gaza and when Ehud Olmert’s plan to repeat the gambit and withdraw unilaterally from the West Bank seemed like it would bring the conflict to an end.
But in 2006, three blows were struck to this flight of fancy which have profoundly influenced the attitude of the Israeli public ever since. The first strike, following the disengagement from Gaza in August 2005, was the electoral victory of Hamas in the Palestinian parliamentary elections of January 2006.
The creation by Hamas of a terrorist statelet in Gaza following the Israeli withdrawal; the dramatic increase in rocket fire against Israeli citizens in the south; and the abduction of Gilad Shalit in June of 2006 were the cumulative second blow.
And the knockout punch was the ambush and abduction of Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah on the Israel-Lebanon border in July of that year, sparking off the Second Lebanon War and the subsequent bombardment of northern Israel with over 4,000 artillery rockets in one month.
For the Israeli public, the inevitable conclusion of this wave of violence and aggression directed at them was that territorial concessions were fatal. The withdrawal from Gaza led to the subjection of nearly one million Israeli citizens to daily bombardment by Palestinian militias. And the unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon carried out in 2000 ultimately exposed Israeli citizens in the north to a similar danger.
Accordingly, public support in Israel for the land-for-peace formula and the establishment of a Palestinian state plummeted. The INSS study shows that from 62 percent in 2006 it has fallen off to barely fifty percent today. For Israelis, no other conclusion could be drawn from these events other than the simple formula that concessions and territorial withdrawals equaled not peace but war.
Support for the notion of “two states for two peoples” remains high, at over 60 percent because Israelis acknowledge that ultimately, continued rule over the Palestinians is untenable. But there is no desire at the moment to rush into an irreversible agreement which could result with the shelling not of Sderot or Haifa but of Tel Aviv.
The recent breakdown in negotiations is nevertheless a setback and the Israeli refusal to renew the construction freeze in the settlements does seem to demonstrate bad faith on Israel’s behalf — but only if one disregards the previous 10-month settlement freeze which was totally ignored by the Palestinians and the international community. Instead of pressuring the Palestinian leadership to enter into direct negotiations at the beginning of the freeze, pressure was perversely applied to Israel to extend the moratorium just as it was running out.
The refusal to talk during the settlement freeze illustrates the pattern of rejectionism and maximalist demands which the Palestinian leadership constantly pursues in order to duck negotiations and compromise. Last year, Palestinian negotiators were not willing to accept Israeli construction in Jewish neighborhoods in east Jerusalem, despite the fact that they will never be part of a Palestinian state. Last week we learned that the senior Palestinian leadership is not willing to compromise on the right of return for Palestinian refugees. And critically, in 2008 Abbas was not willing to accept the comprehensive and far-reaching deal offered him by former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert .
Because of this continual obstructionism, the polls reveal that Israelis simply don’t believe that a deal is possible with the Palestinians because of the nature of their demands. The maximum that Israelis are ready to give up ostensibly does not reach the minimum the Palestinians are prepared to accept.
Despite all this, the international community continues to enable Palestinian rejectionism, whether it is Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay who all unilaterally recognized a Palestinian state this month, or the EU which threatened to do likewise. These developments and the ongoing failure to bring the Palestinians back to the negotiating table risk perpetuating the conflict for a generation. A poll conducted in October this year showed that 58 percent of the Palestinian population see a state in the West Bank and Gaza as merely a stepping-stone to a Palestinian state on the entire territory between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River. If the Palestinians are permitted to establish a state unilaterally, it will permanently absolve them of any requirement to accept an end-of-claims agreement and thereby justify for perpetuity further demands for territory and other perceived rights.
It is not impossible to revive Israeli confidence in a peace deal but the international community will have to be a great deal more resolute than it has been up till now. Israel must be convinced that Iran will not be able to set up a guerrilla army in the West Bank, and that should Israel need to defend itself, it will not be pilloried by the world for doing so. And the Palestinian leadership must be dissuaded from the notion that they can establish a state unilaterally, without compromising and without accepting an end-of-claims agreement. If this is achieved then the Israeli public may well come back around to the more whole-hearted support for a political resolution that was witnessed before 2006. If not, the conflict will simply endure.
It’s hard to see the “two-state solution” and “land-for-peace” as anything but an utter delusion, given the overtly malignant intentions of the Palestinian Arabs, even the latest statement by Abbas that the future Palestinian state will allow no Israelis’ presence. Israel has repeatedly made concessions, given up territory, and has gained nothing. Now there is talk of UN recognition of the Palestinian state, that will further weaken the Israeli position. In retrospect, it’s unfortunate Israel did not annex the West Bank and Gaza in 1967, when they annexed Jerusalem, before the dust had settled and positions become frozen. Those areas would now be Israel, and most of the Palestinians would be living in the remainder of Palestine (Jordan), a fait accompli. It’s a better solution that I would hope could still be achieved.
The ‘two state solution’ is not nearly as popular in Israeli Jewish circles as the gullible public is led to believe.
In fact, after the expulsion of over 8,000 Jews from Gush Katif/AKA Gaza-and the ensuing rein of terror after the territory became Judenrein-has convinced otherwise centrist Israelis that giving up OUR land is NOT the answer.
Regardless of the faux polling to the contrary, the average Zionist on the street is no longer interested in appeasing the Arabs.
This is the truth, regardless of how uncomfortable it makes the appeasers.
Remember that there are two points that are non-negotiable with the palestinians: (1) the palestinians will NOT recognize the State of Israel, and (2) the “right of return” for palestinian “refugees” is non-negotiable.
Adina, are you saying that the polls the article sites are false or just inaccurate?
I actually find the views described here to be very much in line with the views of most moderates I know, whether they are left-leaning or right-leaning.
Adina is conflating two separate issues: That of a two state solution, and that of trading away land to create a state. Most people are in favor of a two state solution (in it’s various meanings) and most people are in favor of peace (the goal), but it has been shown that giving away land (even territories like Gaza) is not the answer for dealing with terrorist groups and simply results in more violence without any benefit.
By the way she refers to it, I expect she is most likely in the Settler faction who has a much more extreme take on the matters. On that side, they tend to prefer a two state solution in which the second state is Jordan, with no territorial concessions on Israel’s part (what some would also call a one state solution at this point).
By the way she refers to it, I expect she is most likely in the Settler faction who has a much more extreme take on the matters.
Oh good grief, those dreadful settlers again. A smear against an honest opinion to render it useless?
Some comments from an email suggest that many moderates are reconsidering their votes for Barack and Livni and are going with Lieberman, who is not scared of speaking his mind, next time around.
Mentioning that someone is of a settler mindset or faction is not a pejorative unless you are thinking from a liberal POV. The fact that they are more extreme in their opinions is also not pejorative anymore than saying that someone is right wing or “far right”. Please try to think critically before posting.
The only land Israel can give away that will placate the Palestinian Arabs is all of it. This is basically the same thing as saying the the P.A.’s have a death wish and love boot marks on their face.
First of all, the polls the article are referring to are mainly done by left wing academia and their assorted think tanks, biased by any stretch. In fact, the way a pollster asks a question can often elicit the intended response.
I am referring to general discussions among fellow Jews in many parts of the country where political views are given at the drop of a hat whether shopping, at a community event etc. I have yet to hear Jews, even in the center of the country, in favor of a two state solution, knowing now what they do about their ‘peace’ partners. What they are in favor of is a decisive win over our enemies, and many admit they have awoken from their peace delusions. I trust these ‘polls’ a lot more than the biased professional ones.
Adina @ reply to #4 -
“What they are in favor of is a decisive win over our enemies, and many admit they have awoken from their peace delusions. I trust these ‘polls’ a lot more than the biased professional ones.”
Yes, and I trust Adina’s instincts.
Shedding peace delusions means the stark realization by newly awakened Israelis that a dreaded all-out war for survival is inevitable, and not only inevitable, but liable to break out anytime.
Denial of the same is a habit hard to break, a proven deadly habit even harder to break when things go from bad to worse (e.g., under a president hostile to both Israel and America, US policy favors their enemies now).
I think most Americans, and most Europeans, too, know, and dread the very same all-out war for survival is imminent, and underneath it all, in their hearts and minds, look to Israel as the example of what to do.
Israel has no choice but to be stalwart for her own sake alone, for her life and her freedom, and not get hung up on being a light to the nations, a suicide, a willing sacrifice to the false Moloch of “peace” that is no peace.
Those polls seem to be ignorant of the massive shift to the right that the Israeli Jewish public has undergone for the past decade. As Adina says, they are reflective of the Marxist Ivory Tower and the Literary Soviet in Israel–a group which, as in most countries, has voice and power in total disproportion to its percentage in the nation, and uses them in flagrant disregard of what the majority thinks and wishes.
For the majority of the Israeli Jewish public, the eyes have witnessed:
- The October 2000 Intifada (general Arab uprising in pre-1967 as well as post-1967 territories)
- The near-continuous firing of rockets from Jew-free Gaza post-2003
- Renewal of aggression from the Lebanese border in 2006, even after having abandoned all presence there six years before
- International delegitimization of the Jewish State, in the form of U.N. condemnations, cultural and economic boycotts, and riots in the streets of the West during every Israeli military campaign
- External events that carry a warning, such as 9/11 and the Danish Cartoons Affair
and those eyes, except when blinkered by a Leftist perspective that refuses to do anything with reality except for explaining it away, influenced the course of the minds.
Do a search for the article “Vox Taxi, Vox Dei” by Israeli arch-Leftist Uri Avnery. Although he, as usual, reaches the wrong conclusions about it, the first part of the article contains a good summary of how the Israeli Jewish public, the public and not the thin film of Marxist journalists and academics, has shifted to the right throughout the period.
And it’s a reaction. It wasn’t always so. Heck, I didn’t always hold the opinions I hold now. But go again through the list above and tell me how much a nation can take before it is forced to change its way of thinking about the entire affair. Reality deserves our respect.
Why does no one in power address the question (with any seriousness): “What happens next if Israel is forced to agree to a Palestinian state and it becomes a frontline aggressor, i.e., there is no peace, like with Gaza?”
Answer: No cares! If Israel is stupid enough to weaken itself by dreaming, they deserve their fate.
Even worse. The frontline virtual state will become a full member of the United Nations with a better chance of membership on UN bodies including the Security Council than does Israel.
Any Israeli response involving troops (i.e. any response)will be taken not as a police action in self defence but as invasion of a member state and while it’s hard to envision a military reaction it’s not hard to see Israeli flights and flights with military supplies to Israel being denied landing and take-off rights in many countries, using a General Assembly resolution as justification. Does anyone confidently count on Obama to veto a similar Security Council resolution?
The virtual state will immediately sign and ratify the Geneva conventions and demand their fighters be given Prisoner of War status, including retrospectively those imprisoned for terrorism in Israel.
What possible advantage does Israel gain by ‘the Two State Solution’ under those terms?
There is NO ‘peace process”.
The day Israel AND America say to the Palinazis:
“It’s over. No more money. No more support. No more food.
Grow your own vegetables and cattle, feed your own families, and look after yourselves. Build grocery stores instead of bomb factories. And if there is ONE terrorist incident from you, we will kill 1000 of you for every Israeli victim.”
is the day the Palinazi terror begins to end. Palinazis are the world’s violent, barbaric spoiled children. The more they’re coddled, the worse they behave. And the less self-reliant they are, the more self-loathing they are.
The origin of Islamism is Islam, the command of the Qu’ran. So terrorism will NEVER be eradicated as long as Islam exists. But if WE don’t feed them, they’ll have to spend more time figuring out how to produce goods and services, feed themselves and the PaliNazis will have less time to concentrate on killing Jews. And maybe, just maybe, they’ll comprehend that there’s pride to be gained from feeding oneself, thus attenuating their self-hatred.
There is NO ‘peace process”.
The day Israel AND America say to the Palinazis:
“It’s over. No more money. No more support. No more food.
Grow your own vegetables and cattle, feed your own families, and look after yourselves. Build grocery stores instead of bomb factories. And for every terrorist incident from you, we will kill 1000 of you for every Israeli victim.”
may be the day the Palinazi terror begins to end.
Palinazis are the world’s violent, barbaric spoiled children. The more they’re coddled, the worse they behave. And the less self-reliant they are, the more self-loathing they are.
The origin of Islamism is Islam, the command of the Qur’an. So terrorism will NEVER be eradicated as long as Islam exists. But if WE don’t feed them, they’ll have to spend more time figuring out how to produce goods and services, feed themselves and the Palinazis will have less time to concentrate on killing Jews. And maybe, just maybe, they’ll comprehend that there’s pride to be gained from feeding oneself, thus attenuating their self-hatred.
Maybe…
The self-displaced ‘refugees’/Trans-Jordanians, whatever you call ‘em -why doesn’t nearby Jordan, Syria or Egypt for that matter encourage these ‘poor souls’ into their borders?
Oh, that’s right. Those countries don’t want uneducated, unrepentent terrorist supporting (and voted for as mentioned..) folks.
What makes these countries think Israel, which has GIVEN so much and received civilian casualties/injuries, NOTHING in the form of diplomacy and broken promise after another.. ANY different in that mindset?
Repatriotize these self-annointed martyrs to the Arab states who sickeningly support their cause yet don’t want ‘em.. what a stalemate.
Why do the Palestinians reject the idea of a Palestinian state in Jordan? Simple. They reject it for the same reason the Mexicans demand the USA return California, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas to the United States of Mexico: those states have paved roads. The Palestinians want the modern infrastructure, wealth and technology (especially nuclear) that Israel has now.
Israel will only have peace when it retaliates with overwhelming force. Like our use of nukes on Japan, only when the moslems face extinction will there be peace.
This sentiment is undeniably true!
This article was spot-on until the descent into fantasy in the last paragraph:
“It is not impossible to revive Israeli confidence in a peace deal but … Israel must be convinced that Iran will not be able to set up a guerrilla army in the West Bank, and that should Israel need to defend itself, it will not be pilloried by the world for doing so.”
As it is entirely obvious that Israel *will* be pilloried for defending itself against Iranian-armed fighters (exactly what it faces in Gaza today)the only conclusion is that reviving Israeli support for a peace deal is, indeed, impossible.
That doesn’t mean that we Israelis are “anti-peace,” nor are we “pro-war.” It’s rather that — as much as we yearn for peace — we cannot afford to bet our children’s lives on political fantasy.
I don’t think there is any great mystery. Simply, anyone who has ever thought that there was any Palestinian objective other than the obliteration of Israel has been deluded.
Any steps that involved Israel giving away strategic advantage on the understanding that it was to achieve peace and goodwill were based on what can only be seen as wilful delusion.
Yesterday’s article in Pajamas Media clearly makes this clear: http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-palestinian-agenda-end-israel-not-found-a-state/?singlepage=true
Whoever in Israeli government and politics thought that moves such as withdrawing from Gaza would bring peace to Israel, should not be involved in directing the destiny of Israel.
They are a menace to the country they claim to serve.
“a two-state solution as the only realistic resolution to the conflict”???
In 1980, PLO Terrorist Leader Arafat explained the peace process: “Peace for us means the destruction of Israel . We are preparing for an all-out war, a war which will last for generations.”
Egypt created the PLO. The PLO Charter calls for the destruction of Israel.
On the same day Oslo “Peace” Accords were signed in 1993, PLO leader, Arafat stated: “Since we cannot defeat Israel in war we do this in stages. We take any and every territory that we can of Palestine, and establish sovereignty there and we use it as a springboard to take more. When the time comes, we can get the Arab nations to join us for the final blow against Israel.”
The futility of Israel’s negotiating strategy has been demonstrated by Prof. Yisrael Aumann, Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics, who compares it to “The Blackmailer’s Paradox” game. See Israel’s Conflict as Game Theory at http://israeldefender.com/?p=1492
Israel is inevitably destined to repeatedly lose, until she decisively breaks out of the present game. Obama initiated another round, when he demanded cessation of settlement building, and Israel agreed. Now cessation of settlements is a preemptive condition, to even sit down.
Israel must create a situation in which the Palestinians make the concessions first. They must be faced with a progressive deterioration of their position if their intransigence persists.
My small opinion carries no weight, least of all with the Israeli public, but I no longer support the notion of a two-state solution. A Palestinian state is a pipe dream. Even if it were possible to found such a state in the face of Palestinian sabotage (and they have done all that is humanly possible to stymie that solution), they couldn’t sustain it. Gaza is a basket case, and the West Bank not much better.
If the Arab nations are not willing to absorb their fellow Arabs, then why should the rest of the world care? Let the Palestinians give up the idea of being “Palestinian” and become citizens of the Arab countries their ancestors came from. If they insist that their ancestors have always lived in “Palestine”, then let them become Arab citizens of Israel, where they would be better off than in any Arab nation.
Whups! I certainly agree with your cynicism regarding the “peace process”, and with the Palestinians moving into other Arab countries. In fact, the original Palestine Mandate included all of Jordan, and most of the residents were nomadic pastoralists, who wandered back and forth across the Jordan for hundreds of years. Mostly, they began to settle down in the part that became Israel after the Jews began to buy up the land and create productive farms.
Roughly 750,000 Arabs left Israel in 1948, either voluntarily or by being expelled. Their descendants now number several million, and are still “refugees”. Correspondingly, 900,000 Jews were expelled by Arab countries after the 1948 war, and their descendants are now proud Israelis. What is wrong with this picture?
Nobody wants the Palestinians, not even their Arab brethren! There were 400,000 Palestinians expelled from Kuwait in 1991, after the PLO sided with Saddam Hussein.
BUT
Just don’t invite the Palestinians to move to Israel, or there will be more Arabs there than Jews, and the next election will be the last election, because Muslim countries do not need elections, when Allah has already made all the rules. That’s the “right of return”, and Israel cannot permit that.
Nobody wants the Palestinians, not even their Arab brethren! There were 400,000 Palestinians expelled from Kuwait in 1991, after the PLO sided with Saddam Hussein.
You should have included this about Jordan revoking citizenship of Palestinins living there:
a href=”http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news.php?newsid=MzMyMTQ1OTQw”>Jordan revoking Palestinians’ citizenships
Rockets and mortars will rain down on Israel, from a new Palestinian state, just as they now do from Gaza and Lebanon.
End the Excessively Cruel Arab Muslim Occupation of Biblical Judea & Samaria!
Non Muslims must have human rights!
In a massive victory for Islam, against their will, Arab Christians were cruelly placed under brutal occupation of PLO/Palestinian Authority. In the filthy Islamic Invasion of Church of Nativity in Bethlehem, Judea, Muslims tore up BIBLES for toilet paper.
Christian majority towns, Bethlehem & Nazareth are now majority Muslim – terrified Christians were driven out by cruel Islamic persecution. Many Bethlehem Christians’ homes and land were stolen by Muslims. The Christians who remain, live in constant fear. US/EU/UN are silent about the suffering and terrible persecution of Jews, Christians, Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists and other non-Muslims, by Islam.
US/EU/UK/UN have a moral obligation to end the cruel Muslim occupation of Judea and Samaria. The PHONY peace process has destroyed all peace and all security and created enormous suffering, injuries, disabilities and deaths for both Jews and Christians. It is a huge triumph for global jihad.
Stop the SURRENDER to global jihad!
The only alternative to having two states west of the Jordan is having one state: an Arab majority state. Thus, believing that Israel ought to on to “Judea” and “Samaria” is by definition an ANTI-ZIONIST viewpoint. Unless you’re a fan of the late Rabbi Kahane.
The agreement is impossible, we can’ negotiate with terrorists.
It is important not to digress… and tell the truth.
I am thoroughly ashamed of the fact that my country, USA, seems to blindly support Israel. Especially because of it’s continued supplying of war toys when we all know that they are so often used offensively to the loss of the Palestinian people.
Are we to really believe that “God gave this land to” anyone in particular? God has no preference, no preferred people and that’s a fact.
The reason that Palestine and other middle east nations have so much hate for the “west” and Israel is simply because they have all been pushed in a corner by US foreign policies. I firmly condemn both my own country and Israel as both being complicit partners to crimes against humanity for no reason more important than oil.
Some day maybe the world will rise up and say “no more” to both these global bullies.