Islamic Jihad’s Attacks, Hamas’ Dilemma
In by far the sharpest escalation since late 2008, scores of rockets have been fired from the Gaza Strip into Israel during recent days following Israel’s killing of the Gaza-based leader of the Popular Resistance Committees (PRC) Zuhair al-Qaisi and one of his lieutenants. Al-Qaisi was in the last stages of planning a major terror attack when he was killed.
The rocket attacks, creating a dilemma for Gaza’s Hamas rulers, are mainly being carried out by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad with involvement from the smaller PRC.
From Hamas’ standpoint the escalation comes at an unwelcome time. The movement is in the midst of a tricky political process whereby it is seeking to extricate itself from the regional bloc led by Iran and to realign with the Sunni rulers of Egypt and Qatar. This move comes as a result of both problems and opportunities opened up by political upheavals in the Arab world — especially the largely Islamist revolution in Egypt — and by Iran’s backing for the Syrian government’s assault on the largely Sunni Arab population in the civil war there.
This already difficult transformation is further complicated by the fact that Hamas is now in the midst of an internal power struggle. The rulers of Gaza are pursuing a policy opposed by the official Hamas leadership of Khaled Mashaal, who rules over nothing at all. The battle is over whether Egypt or Iran is to be Hamas’ patron.
In the midst of this complex situation the escalation and rocket fire has erupted.
The dilemma from Hamas’ point of view is as follows: until now, the impressive performance of Israel’s Iron Dome system has minimized Israeli casualties and thus enabled Israel to calibrate its response accordingly. But if Israeli civilians are killed, the government may well opt for a significant ground invasion. Consequently, if Gaza’s rulers continue to let Islamic Jihad and the PRC escalate the situation, at a certain point an Israeli ground incursion will become inevitable.
This will then potentially place the survival of the Hamas regime in jeopardy at a time when the Gaza rulers perceive a historic opportunity to achieve dominance within their movement, including control over the West Bank. Moreover, Hamas would also prefer to wait until a time when the Muslim Brotherhood has more control over Egypt and can offer it stronger backing.
So Hamas doesn’t want to see a major IDF operation into Gaza right now.
However, if Hamas appears too eager to secure a renewed ceasefire with Israel, Gaza’s leaders risk being presented by their rivals as a client regime of America and Israel in exactly the same way that Hamas has historically used to excoriate the PA. Islamic Jihad, once a marginal group, is now emerging as a major force in Gaza. This movement, unlike Hamas, has no problem working with Iran and getting money, guns, and orders from Tehran.
It is quite possible, though one doesn’t know for sure, that Iran is involved in some way in the Islamic Jihad decision to escalate. This would constitute a shrewd message to Hamas regarding the potential cost of leaving its patronage. And it could also be taken as an Iranian response to threats from Israel, and the United States as well, about attacking Iranian nuclear facilities. The message: Iran has resources for striking back against Israel.
So Hamas needs to make a decision with no easy options.
From Israel’s viewpoint, the disruption caused to a million Israeli citizens’ lives in the south of the country is intolerable. Israel is aware of Hamas’ dilemma, but has no reason to do the movement any favors. So Israel’s message is clear and uncompromising: for as long as the rocket fire continues, Israel will continue to retaliate. If the Hamas regime wants to engineer a return to the de facto ceasefire, then it better go ahead and do so before it’s too late.
So which course will Hamas choose? The indications are that Hamas, fearing a major Israeli attack more than the potential political loss of face of a renewed ceasefire, is hurrying to secure a return to the shaky and partial calm that preceded the current escalation. The Hamas rulers have rushed to the authorities in Cairo to ask them to broker a renewed ceasefire.
Hamas spokesman Taher al-Nunu stated March 10 that “all Palestinian factions” wanted a renewed truce but that Israel must stop firing first. Hamas is also currently insisting that Israel commit to avoid targeted killings in Gaza in the future — a condition entirely unacceptable to Jerusalem. Islamic Jihad spokesman Daud Shihab, however, denied that the organization was involved in any contacts to end the clashes.
The political game in which each group tries to claim the mantle of greater militancy against Israel is once again in play. But the words of the Hamas spokesman suggested that the stage of bargaining had begun. So this round is likely to end in the coming days — barring unforeseen developments — with a return to an uneasy de facto ceasefire.
If this happens, the Israel defense establishment will be able to register an achievement. It will have showed it can act decisively to ensure the security of Israeli citizens, and then use sophisticated techniques to minimize the damage of the response from Gaza and force a return to quiet.
Meanwhile, the Hamas authorities in Gaza remain in an uncomfortable dilemma, caught between their desire to keep control of Gaza and the lure of militant violence against Israel. For its part, Islamic Jihad will have proved its worth as an asset for Iran to remind everyone in the locality of its continued presence and possibly of what might happen if Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities.
A bigger issue is how changes in Egypt — including the projected turnover of power from the military to an elected president — will affect the Gaza Strip and the situation on Israel’s southern border. If Cairo turns toward greater Islamist militancy, the chance for a major confrontation being sparked in Gaza would exponentially increase. For now, though, efforts have begun to end this current round of fighting.
My own sense from Egypt is that despite all the bluster of the Islamists they have no desire to be compromised by Hamas and have little sympathy for their tactics, brother organization to the Muslim Brotherhood or no. The MB has its own fish to fry in Egypt and that doesn’t include being drawn into a confrontation where the Egyptian army everyone now hates would suddenly be called on by the very MB that wants to marginalize that army back into it barracks. Aside from that, despite the Parliamentary victories by the Islamists, being able to exert control over Egypt’s institutions is another matter, particularly the security forces and the army. The army’s probably telling the MB, “Tell your wives to wear scarves – let us handle security.”
according to debka, hamas has moved it’s production, training and storage areas to the sinai and that the egyptian military requested hamas to dismantle those areas as part of the cease fire and was refused.
israel is facing an interesting stalemate.
if debka is correct then the hits on the gaza strip are very narrow and do not hit the major portion of hama’s resources.
If israel hits those sites inside of sinai that could be the casus belli, that egypt wants to re-militarize the sinai.
Israel has to figure our a strategy that can make the strip unable to use the tunnels to import fajr and other rockets
I think it’s time for Israel to build a moat around Gaza. If it’s deep enough the moat will flood any tunnels leading in and out of Gaza. The moat could double as a water reservoir for Gaza and could be justified on humanitarian grounds. And, if the Gazans blew it up it they would simply be flooded.
Israel is being smart: they are trying to hand off supply responsibility for Gaza to Egypt, there are building a medium-tech fence across their border with Egypt, they are building a railroad that will siphon of business from the Suez and making friends with South Sudan so they can build dams to control the Nile and therefore Egypt. Let Egypt extend it’s military South and see what happens.
Hamas agreed to release Gilad Shalit in exchange for over 1000 Arab prisioners. That was amazing. They realeased a living Israeli. They allowed themselves to be bribed. The bribe was enormous, to be sure, but Hamas, previously not subject to conditions of practicality, succumbed–and actually made a deal, albeit an indirect one, with Israel.
Once again, Hamas seems to be taking practical issues into consideration. By doing so, it is violating its own charter, which excludes the possibility of any kind of agreement with a state whose existence must be wiped out absolutely–the official purpose of Hamas.
See Python, Monty.
The Egyptians are not secure enough to take on another confrontation.
What Israel, Hamas and Eqypt should really fear is that the proxy Sunni/Shia war currently raging in Syria spills over to neighbouring countries. This war is essentially Sunni Sordid Saudi against Shia disgusting Iran. An added complication and the ‘elephant in the room’ with Iran is that as Shia they positively want and look forward to Armageddon. Which in Shia eyes will bring back the Hidden Imam and enable Shia Islam world domination along with the complete elimination of all Jews. When judging Iran’s nuclear ambitions its threats to eliminate Israel from the map and kill ALL Jews should be viewed in this context.
To the dilemma facing Hamas I offer an easy out. Start targeting the PRC and Islamic Jihad leadership. And blame the Jews.
Being that assassinations are a common occurrence in the ME who would be the wiser? Seriously, for their own reasons, Israel, Hamas nor Egypt wants to upset the applecart right now.
BTW there is not now nor has there ever been a Country or State called Palestine nor a people called “Palestinians” they are all a Yasser Arafat ‘INVENTION”. It therefore logically follows that such a non existent entity cannot be “OCCUPIED” nor can you be a “REFUGEE” from it.
You have fallen into the islamic terrorists’ trap
Hamas = Al Quida = PLO = Islamic Jihad = OIC = CAIR = Islamic Brotherhood = Extreme Islamic Fundamentalist = Basic Islamic Fundamentalist = ‘Moderate’ Islamic providing aid & cover for their more active brothers
Many faces, same goal
One says nice things today while their ‘brother’ is rearming & claiming they are being oppressed, meanwhile their ‘cousin’ is actively killing.
Tomorrow or next week they will change roles, but one will always be killing, one will always be resting & rearming and another will be lying about how peaceful islam is and how the islam has been twisted by every other islamic for the last 1400 years
Exactly right. Why so much time and ink (electrons?) are wasted trying to divine the internecine workings of genocidal parties who differ only in attire and public relations capabilities is beyond me. As they are all amalekites at heart, they all deserve biblical punishment, not the parsing of their statements for hints of nuanced differences. Only a Barack Obama, a Hillary Clinton, the US State Department, the CIA, and most western euro governments could possibly find any reason to try and find these nuances, and that is only so they can use them to pressure Israel into trading concessions for arab acceptance of American machinations in the wider mid east.
The situation between Islamic Jihad and Hamas should serve as a lesson for Egypt.
At first it may seem a welcome addition to “the struggle”. However when you allow a terrorist organization to take root you will find that you cannot control them and you have a much bigger problem. For MB to take in Hamas could create a similar situation.
Eventually Iran will also find that it’s “children” will turn away as well and pursue their own agendas.
Both Hamas and Islamic Jihad have the same goal. Problem for Hamas now is that they do not have the same strategy and IJ can bring unwanted consequences. Hamas cannot openly take on these street heros now so they will have to try and deal with then. One solution? Leak info to the Israelis and let them take care of it.
My theory is that if Israel attacks Iran, Hezbolla will either not attack or will try a limited response from which it can quickly extricate itself. Hamas will do nothing and we will see something like this from Islamic Jihad.
And the winner is…Iron Dome. Too bad Raphael is owned by the government and you cant buy stock.
Iron dome is not really a winner.
The better Israel gets at defending itself using defensive technologies, the more the US expects it to suck up offenses from its enemies while showing ‘restraint’.
Pretty soon, Israelis will find themselves squatting under a dome shaped forcefield covering the Jerusalem-Tel Aviv corridor, watching missiles explode against the forcefield.
Reliance on technology, particularly when it is used to shrink you down in size (which the USA is wont to do to Israel) at the expense of natural defenses based on territory is hazardous in the mid east. . .
This is long war strategy Michael.
Defense and Offense are not exclusive. The enemy has invested in missiles because they cannot match Israel in technical capability. Iron Dome proves that anti missile defense is no pipe dream.
Israel has defeated the best they had to offer.
Now the enemy is withdrawing from the field with no concession from Israel.